I think Waddle is going to be excellent. I wouldn’t hate a Sewell pick but I think there is a lot of risk there.
Honestly I'm ok with QB, Chase or Sewell. Think one of those 3 has to be there. Worst case for me is the 6 gone are Lawrence, Wilson, Sewell, Chase, Lance and Fields. Don't want Mac Jones, don't want Pitts. I guess I may go Slater in that spot
If we stay at 7 it needs to be for a QB or Sewell. Chase wouldn’t upset me, but I just don’t like the positional value that early in the draft. Beyond that, just trade down. We’ve only got six picks and the roster is trash.
Fields Sewell Chase Parsons In no scenario should the Lions draft Pitts and I have no idea what you're getting with Lance. Which means it's going: Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, Fields, Sewell, Chase and the Lions are picking either Pitts or Lance, so I hope it's Lance.
Assuming the top 4 goes Lawrence/Wilson/Jones/Pitts, we can't trade, and we aren't taking a QB, give me... Chase Waddle Parsons Sewell/Slater In the scenario of that top 4, two out of the Chase/Waddle/Sewell trio goes 5/6. If that happens, I think we either take Fields or bail out for whatever we can get.
I am also not sure why Wilson and Jones will go off the board before Fields, and Lance is a complete roll of the dice who needs to play a lot of football given his low experience level, but also isn't anywhere near ready to play a lot of NFL football.
I want Lance or Fields but this is worth reposting here; The first round QBs since 2011 2011 Newton Locker Gabbert Ponder 2012 Luck RGIII Tannehill Weeden 2013 Manuel 2014 Bortles Manziel Bridgewater 2015 Winston Mariota 2016 Goff Wentz Lynch 2017 TRUBISKY Watson* Mahomes* 2018 Mayfield* Darnold Allen* Rosen Jackson* 2019 Murray* Jones* Haskins 2020 Burrow* Tua* Herbert* Love* * denotes the player is with the team he was drafted by
Yea drafting a QB is a gamble and a lot flop, but flip side to that, top 5 QB last year in QB rating were all 1st rd picks Rodgers Watson Mahomes Allen Tannehill Really if you expand it, Brees, Brady and Wilson being the outliers, most other top QB are all 1st round picks Lamar Jackson, Stafford, Herbert, Mayfield, Murray, etc. In fact, if you want to look at bust lists, look at non 1st rd pick drafted QB beside the outliers previously mentioned. If you want a high end QB, you are going to most likely need to take them round 1
I agree but my point is you it’s very rare to see multiple QBs drafted in the first round be very successful. If we assume Lawrence is a lock to be a good starting QB, the odds of any other QB be great significantly lower. I am fine taking that chance but it’s more likely than not that if we go QB at 7, they don’t pan out.
This is not how probabilities work. Lawrence could be a bust or a HOFer. Neither outcome will have any impact on the chance for success of any other QB in the draft.
My point is the next time five QBs drafted in the first round pan out will be the first time. Even having three pan out on the first round is exceedingly rare. If two pan out, it’s a good QB crop. I think Lawrence panning out is assured, so based on recent precedent it’s just not likely that two other QB are going to be drafted in the first round that pan out.
So Miami traded to 6 to land one of Chase or Pitts and now it’s likely neither will be available. I thought they did awesome trading out of 3 but trading back to 6 so soon after never made sense.
So right now there seems to be some smoke pointing to this being the top 6 Lawrence Wilson Jones Pitts Chase Sewell The two best players will be QB’s, which, we should jump on it even if I don’t think it works out for us. If we don’t go QB, I actually think scenario this hurts our ability to trade down.
I tend to agree, but that probably also depends on how people view the Sewell/Slater evals. If people think Slater is as good as Sewell and now there's only one left, that might spark some more possibilities.
I still think Miami goes WR at 6, but I guess I could see why they might prefer a Sewell/Elijah Moore combo at 6/18 to a Waddle/Teven Jenkins or Christian Darrisaw combo.
The Dolphins seem to be doing smart things. So maybe they played 4d chess by moving behind two dumb teams who figure to make dumb picks.
I dunno about that. They spent all that money in FA two years about on Flowers, Van Noy and someone else, and they are all gone. For their moves to work, Tua has to pan out. They gotta add some talent for him to work with to see what it is they have, but if Tua isn’t the answer just about everything they have done is a failure.
Sure, in sports anything could not work out, but they’ve done things the right way imo. I also think if Tua stinks this year they can trade him for a decent pick and get a top QB in next year’s draft. Accumulating assets the way they have gives them flexibility.
They missed on Herbert last year and they were in a position to draft a good QB this year. If Tua is just ok, it’ll make getting a good QB that much more challenging.
Right. Teams miss in the draft. That’s nothing new. But their plan is sound and they’re now in a position where drafting a TE or WR early makes sense. Though I would have stuck at 12 if they’re targeting a receiver. If Tua is just okay and they decide he’s not it, they can flip him for a Darnold or Wentz type of return and try again. I don’t see how he mucks things up for them unless they take forever to move on from him.
I'm always all over the place before the draft, but in recent days I've really started to hope we take Parsons (ideally in a trade down scenario). The off field stuff scares me, but his talent is absurd and our defense has to find someone with that kind of speed somewhere along the way to build around. I'd definitely prefer him to one of the OTs, I think, although I wouldn't be upset if we took Sewell or Slater. I just think the talent level is similar (and I'd argue Parsons is more talented) and I think we need Parsons' skill set a lot more than we need a second elite OT.
Parsons athletic profile is absurd, but he’s still so new to playing LB that I am concerned whether he can be the guy that calls the defense. If you take him top 10, you basically need him to be Roquan Smith. I think physically he can be that guy, but the mental part I’m not sure about because he’s only been an LB for two years.
The Parsons thing is also interesting because so many people believe he’s a shit person, and many of the stories about him seem bad, but in a normal year it would be easier to vet that stuff. Since this isn’t a normal year, and much of the talk now is that it’ll be a clean draft with fewer potential character risks taken since teams don’t feel they can do their due diligence, can Holmes risk his first pick possibly having baggage they didn’t uncover?
Even though I don’t feel overly optimistic any QB will pan out, give me Lance or Fields. I think Lance needs as much time as possible to learn, but Fields could be a gadget player next season as he develops behind Goff. If we don’t pick a QB, I hope we trade back to the mid teens for a 2022 1st.
Way too early to tell , but I feel Lance or Fields could be 2nd best QB in 2022 draft class. If that’s the case you gotta take one of them.
This. Id be ok with Sewell or Chase at 7 but it's looking likely neither are there. Looks increasingly like top 6 are going to be Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, Pitts, Chase and Sewell possibly. If that happens I think you have to go QB or trade down. Parsons, Slater, Waddle don't do it for me at 7th.
He's different than Smith, though, because Smith didn't have Parsons' pass rush talent. Parsons could be an early down LB, and then move to edge rusher on third down and get 8-10 sacks in a year, potentially. Yes, the bar he'd have to reach to be worth that pick is really high, but that's the same for everyone. Sewell would need to be Tyron Smith. Waddle would need to be Antonio Brown. Fields would need to be Dak or Josh Allen. I don't know about his off field stuff. I'm kind of more scared someone from his past comes out and accuses him of something than him screwing up in the future. By most accounts he's matured a lot in recent years. Lavarr Arrington is mentoring him and Franklin (if it's worth anything, and maybe it isn't) seems to be vouching for him pretty hard. Oruwariye is on the current roster and maybe he'd have some insight on what he was like his FR year. I'm not all in on the idea. There's like 8 guys I could live with us taking. The idea has just grown on me of late.
I haven’t found the story quoted in that tweet, so I have no idea the validity. Chase is arguably the most talented player in the draft though, but I don’t get trading up for him with all our needs.
It's in an ESPN+ story today with a big draft preview that basically says 10x "the Lions could do anything"
I do wonder if we covertly tried to move up for a QB and people are just speculating it’s Chase we wanted
Came here to say that, after running a couple late night draft sims, I'm firmly in the trade down camp. Open the thread to rumors we tried to trade up for a WR. fOrWaRD DOwn tHe FiELd!!!! I don't buy it though.
I'd be happy with Fields, Sewell, Chase or Parsons. Slater seemed to be climbing the lists, then seemed to slide back again. I'd be fine Slater at 13 or Waddle at 15. Best case is Parsons at 13 and more draft capital.
It's kind of crazy that we've spent so many years denying access to everything and trying to be so secretive (even before Quinn/Patricia), and now we're just doing stuff like this on the team website. Good for them for realizing they're going to suck and trying to find ways for their likeable people running the show to connect with the fan base.