ISO across the minors is a pretty dumb stat given how crazy inflated offense is in some leagues compared to others. We dont have a minor league team in the PCL, for example. Having said that, we have a serious organizational deficiency when it comes to evaluating and developing position players. Eugenio Suarez is the best guy we've "developed" in the last decade+, and we didn't even think he was any good, and traded him for garbage.
That 2014-15 offseason was so bad. Let Scherzer walk. Traded Suarez and a former #1 pick (who busted out, but still) everyone said was stupid to draft for Simon. Gave up on Ray after one offseason for Greene. What a waste.
This was one of his shakier starts, too. If this continues through June, he should be in the big leagues by the break. There's no point in keeping him in the minors if his ERA is going to be sub-1. It won't make him better and you're just wasting innings on his arm at that point. It doesn't cost them anything extra, and it would bring some people to the ballpark once a week.
The Tigers front office is a clown show. They’re going to keep him and Manning down there until May 2020
Manning I can understand. He needs reps and to continue to work on his secondary stuff to give him a chance for better long term success. Mize is pretty close to what he's going to be from a stuff standpoint, and the only way he's going to learn what he needs to improve in those areas is to be challenged and possibly fail. There is zero reason to keep him in the minors until next May unless he starts getting hit around in AA or AAA, but I'm afraid you might be right, probably because Avila wants to go into the offseason with Mize still considered a prospect to juice those org rankings.
That’s a good point. Fangraphs just ranked our system 19. Besides Manning and Mize, it’s not that great.
In terms of this, I think we take Vaughn if he's there. Just a matter of what Chicago does at 3. The interesting thing will be if Jeter's staff overrules his scouting department and takes Abrams over Bleday at 4. That would mean we're choosing between Greene and Bleday. I think we'd take Greene, but I think that's a toss up. Seems like there's been some buzz connecting us to Lodolo, the LHP out of TCU, of late. Mark Anderson says he's a back up option in case someone like Greene throws out a number we're not comfortable with, which seems unlikely at this stage because it seems that would already be out there. There's no reason for Vaughn or Bleday to do that as college guys who don't have any leverage in negotiations.
With regards to Toledo, the record is awful because Burrows and Funkhouser have been out since April and we've taken anyone who has been pitching even remotely competently to the bigs in our search of pitching. Because of that, they have the worst team ERA in the league (5.8). The offense is around middle of the pack and some guys are having solid years (Willi Castro and Jake Rogers, in particular). I don't think the Hens' record is that big of a deal due to those factors. Erie only being .500 with Mize, Manning and Faedo is probably more disappointing than the Hens' shitty record if you're judging those kinds of things off reasonable expectations. It's not like the Erie line-up is loaded with prospects, of course.
He's at 8.1 K/9 in Erie, and part of the reason it's not higher is that he's not facing many hitters. He's got a 0.8 WHIP. He's not going to be Scherzer/Verlander with the Ks, but saying he's not striking anyone out is a significant stretch.
One thing I'll give the Tigers credit for in terms of pitchers is they actually let them throw and develop, which probably hurts their K numbers (and possibly trade value/prospect ranking) compared to other orgs. Houston is a great example of this, IMO. Forest Whitley has been the consensus top pitching prospect in the league for the last 2 years. He's really struggling this year, but the K numbers are absurd throughout his minor league career. Part of the reason is he's thrown 5 or more innings in a start 10 times in 4 seasons. Manning has done that 26 times in 2018-19, including 9 out of 10 starts this year. Mize has thrown at least 5 innings in all 11 starts this year. You're not going to strike as many people out if you're learning how to get through 6-7 innings as you are if you're airing it out every start and going 3-4 innings. Doesn't mean Whitley's not a great talent, but the K numbers are juiced in some of these minor league systems.
Hopefully the first pick is good, because Avila is a dog shit after the first round We will take college kids with low ceilings and high floors
For as much as people are praising him about being way too good for the league I expected his K number to be way higher. Manning has essentially the same WHIP in Erie with a 11+ K/9. It’s way early in his pro career but he seems to me like he projects as a 2-3 starter in the bigs
Manning might have a higher ceiling, but he's also got a much lower floor. You can dominate a league without striking everyone out every start.
It’s just an observation bud. The best/most dominant pitchers in the MLB have high strike out numbers it seems.
He could start striking out more guys at some point, too. It's a skill pitchers can get better at. Verlander struck out 9 or more guys per 9 IP three times in his first 10 seasons. Trevor Bauer didn't strike out 9 per 9 IP in the big leagues until 2017 (he was below 8 per 9 IP in 22 AAA starts in 2013). Gerrit Cole struck out 6.22 per 9 innings in his last AAA season. He's at 14.1 right now. Matt Boyd is striking out almost 11 per 9 right now.
Vin’s GF Emily Waldon from the Athletic article on 5 potential picks for tigers at 5 The Tigers, after the fanfare of owning the No. 1 pick in 2018, will have slightly less pressure this year when Day 1 of the MLB Draft arrives June 3. They selected right-hander Casey Mize first overall last season. And even though he was the obvious choice, the Tigers’ need for impact bats remains an issue. This year, they’re choosing fifth overall, and looking at one of the weaker recent classes in regards to pitching. This plays to the Tigers’ favor, however. Many of the available options, specifically high school bats, are already viewed as highly advanced and unlikely to need extended development time. The team has been allotted $6,180,700 for the fifth pick, and has the ninth-highest bonus pool in the league, totaling $10,402,500. That’s down $2,012,300 from last summer’s first-pick pool. While the Tigers have been tied to several bats within the draft class, the challenge is knowing who will be available at No. 5. We spoke with Brian Sakowski, national scouting supervisor for Perfect Game, and Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline about who could still be on the board when the Tigers pick and how their profiles could contribute toward the continuing rebuild in Detroit. In alphabetical order, here are five players the Tigers could consider for the fifth pick: Hunter Bishop: OF College: Arizona State Height/Weight: 6-5/210 pounds Bats/Throws: L/R Stats (three seasons): 506 AB, .306/.409/.581, 155 H, 113 R, 25 2B, 9 3B, 32 HR, 112 RBIs Bishop, the younger brother of Mariners outfielder Braden Bishop, draws attention for his performance on the field as well as for his dominant frame. “A big dude. Really, really athletic for a guy his size,” Sakowski said. “He had a gigantic year this year. Unbelievable year. He’s always had some swing-and-miss concerns. He’d been OK his first couple years at ASU and then this year, he’s figured it out and all he does is hit the crap out of baseballs.” At the plate, Bishop displays 70-grade power with a good degree of bat speed from the left side. Arizona State’s season is ongoing, as the Sun Devils face Southern Mississippi in an NCAA regional game on Friday. “Of all the position players who are going to go in the top-10 picks, none of them has come as far as Bishop has this spring,” Callis said. “The tools and athleticism were always there, but now he’s a more disciplined hitter and he has shown he can play center field.” Defensively, the only real concern is a somewhat fringe outfield arm that could prevent him from playing right field. Scouts, though, seem to think his plus speed and athleticism could make center field feasible. “The tools have always been there and he’s got an unbelievable body. It’s like an 80-grade body,” Sakowski said. “This year, him performing is what’s taken him from ‘The tools are sexy. Let’s wait and see’ to ‘… He’s going to go in the top 10.'” JJ Bleday: OF College: Vanderbilt Height/Weight: 6-3/205 pounds Bats/Throws: L/L Stats (three seasons): 527 AB, .328/.449/.564, 173 H, 121 R, 24 2B, 2 3B, 32 HR, 104 RBIs Bleday has had a reputation for bat-to-ball skills for quite some time, but it was a push of raw power this season that propelled the Vanderbilt outfielder up the draft boards. Over his first two seasons in the SEC, Bleday knocked a combined six home runs. In 2019, he has 26. (Vanderbilt is scheduled to play Ohio State in an NCAA regional game Friday night.) “His power is what’s taken him from a second-round type of guy coming into the season to maybe he goes fourth overall,” Sakowski said. “The question scouts always had was the power, and now that power’s showing up.” Sakowski credits Bleday’s offensive improvements to swing adjustments made through the help of Vanderbilt hitting coach Mike Baxter. “He’s driving the ball in the air a little bit more than he had and he wasn’t done growing,” Sakowski said. “Leading into this year he was getting stronger and they did a good job there with the swing at Vanderbilt. Those things combined, it’s all of a sudden 26 bombs in college baseball.” Bleday profiles as bat before defense, but that’s not to discount his abilities in the field. Although he grades slightly below average, he runs well enough to hold a corner outfield slot. A former two-way player, Bleday complements his defensive profile with a plus arm, athleticism and strong instincts. While his bat defines his résumé, Bleday is well-rounded enough to serve in the outfield while his advanced power contributes at the plate. Riley Greene: OF High school: Hagerty (Oviedo, Fla.) Height/Weight: 6-1/191 pounds Bats/Throws: L/L Stats (two seasons): 64 AB, .328/.517/.625, 1.142 OPS, 21 H, 26 R, 3 2B, 5 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBIs In an offense-heavy class, Greene is another example of a highly advanced bat. “The draw of Greene’s profile is the bat,” Sakowski said. “It’s the chance for a plus hitter with plus game power and the chance for an impact offensive force from the left side. “Greene is the best high school hitter in the class. … Bobby Witt Jr. is obviously better in other ways, but (Greene) is probably the best pure bat in the high school class. The upside is substantial in a guy who can swing like that.” Witt, a shortstop from Colleyville, Texas, won the 2019 Gatorade National High School Baseball Player of the Year award. With Greene’s arm and speed grading average, he appears best suited on defense for a corner outfield spot. Sakowski acknowledged the gamble that comes with drafting a high school bat. “He’s a high school hitter; he’s going to take a while,” Sakowski said. “It’s usually how it goes. He’s pretty big now, but he’s projectable. He’s going to get bigger and he’s going to get stronger.” Despite his raw profile, scouts believe Green’s bat will carry at the higher levels in the future. “Greene is the consensus best all-around high school hitter in the draft,” Callis said. “I’ve even heard some Cody Bellinger comps, which may be a bit much, but speaks to the regard in which scouts hold him.” Nick Lodolo: LHP College: Texas Christian Height/Weight: 6-6/185 pounds Bats/Throws: L/L Stats (three seasons): 253.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 228 H, 102 ER, 77 BB, 290 K Lodolo’s potential gets high marks from Sakowski and the team at Perfect Game. “The No. 1 pitcher in the class for us, college or high school,” Sakowski said. His fastball is 90-94 mph, up to 95. The slider is often a plus pitch. “I’ve seen the changeup as above average, so there’s a chance for three plus pitches with a starter profile,” Sakowski said. “He throws strikes and he’s an athletic guy with a No. 2, No. 3 starter as the upside.” At 6-feet-6, Lodolo doesn’t lack natural downhill plane on his delivery, adding some sink to his fastball. Scouts have cited inconsistencies in his arsenal, but not enough to diminish their respect for his progress. “The majority of clubs have Lodolo as the best college pitcher in this draft,” Callis said. “He has made the improvements he needed to make this spring, developing a better slider, showing better control and command and consistency, and maintaining his arm slot.” With an easy delivery, Lodolo is expected to add strength and already possesses a good understanding of how to manage his long, lean frame. TCU faces Cal on Friday in an NCAA regional game. Andrew Vaughn: 1B College: California Height/Weight: 6-0/214 pounds Bats/Throws: R/R Stats (two seasons): 417 AB, .374/.474/.681, 156 H, 95 R, 21 2B, 1 3B, 35 HR, 113 RBIs The chance of Vaughn still being on the board for the Tigers is slim, but his offensive profile easily fits their need for an impact bat. “I don’t think anyone questions that Vaughn is the best all-around hitter in this draft and one of the best in recent years,” Callis said. “You can wish that he hit left-handed or that he played a position other than first base, but the bat is special, so it doesn’t really matter.” Vaughn, whose Cal Golden Bears will play Lodolo’s TCU Horned Frogs on Friday night, has been discussed as a consideration for third or the outfield somewhere down the road. For now, though, first base is working just fine, with an arm strong enough to serve him well as a former pitcher, and clean hands. “If there was a drawback, it’s that he is a right-handed-hitting first baseman. However … can he hit,” Sakowski said. “Unbelievable offensive production for his entire career (at California). You’d think there’s no way he could have gotten better than last year, but he has. He’s an impact bat type of guy.” Vaughn would help fill the lack of pure first basemen in Detroit’s farm system. He also wouldn’t need much grooming. “This is a guy that, if it comes together like you expect it to, is in the majors, in the middle of your order, by like 2021,” Sakowski said. (Photo of Andrew Vaughn: Tyler Tate / Associated Press)