Gambling Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by bro, Nov 25, 2020.

  1. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersLos Angeles LakersLos Angeles RamsAnaheim DucksManchester UnitedLos Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    Carlson hooked a brother up in my FFPC contest, so I am not complaining.
     
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  2. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    Ya, that not going over really stunk. Would have been a great betting day otherwise. Oh well, my 4 team tease is still alive. Need Tampa -2.5 and KC -6.5. Have a good amount of stuff on Tampa tomorrow. Team over, Brady yards, fournette receptions.
     
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  3. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
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    Anybody else feeling San Francisco tomorrow? Thinking of taking them ML.
     
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  4. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Pretty much every bettor on earth, including myself
     
  5. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
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    Auburn TigersLos Angeles LakersLos Angeles RamsAnaheim DucksManchester UnitedLos Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    Alright, shit. Either I should fade or stay away. I do have SF in a 3 team 10 pt parlay.
     
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  6. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    Weather for Tampa
    000BF90E-BD4B-43B1-9A15-87BFC83C9E8C.jpeg
     
  7. houtex716

    houtex716 let's have a beach party
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    Uh isn’t fournette not playing
     
  8. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Looks like I get my money back!
     
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  9. Willpépé

    Willpépé Well-Known Member
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    Philadelphia 76'ersArsenal

    Took the 9ers and eagles both +14.5 with Chiefs -3.

    Also for Aus Open I took Leylah Fernandez to reach the Quarters. That’s one of about 20 tennis bets I’ll make today.
     
  10. stric006

    stric006 Recovering Butter Beer addict
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew York Giants

    I’ve got in a teaser eagles +14 and niners +10. So naturally the cowboys crush them.
     
  11. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Tuck Comin
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    Michigan State SpartansDetroit PistonsDetroit LionsDetroit Red WingsDetroit Tigers

    I did that Barstool promo where if you bet 10 bucks or more on a 6 game ATS parlay and it hits you get an additional 1,000 in bonus cash. I got the first two games right yesterday. When is the best time to start hedging? Figured it’s a lot easier since all the games are spread out.
     
  12. The Hebrew Husker

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    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWENebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Enough people are on the 9ers and the line has held steady that I kind of want to risk Dallas, but I dont really trust them, especially the HC. Might be a game time decision there.
     
  13. Houndster

    Houndster $25 Standard Unit
    Donor TMB OG

    MNF. What’s the rollover requirement on bonus cash?
     
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  14. seanofthedead86

    seanofthedead86 Well-Known Member
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    Tennessee VolunteersAtlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsAtlanta UnitedNavy Midshipmen

    I keep going back and forth on this one. I feel like if im leaning towards taking the SF +3, I might as well just take a chance on the SF ML instead.
     
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  15. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Tuck Comin
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    Michigan State SpartansDetroit PistonsDetroit LionsDetroit Red WingsDetroit Tigers

    I think you can just have to play through it once (and can be via multiple bets)
     
  16. Quailman

    Quailman how playa is that, mayne?
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    Nebraska CornhuskersCincinnati RedsOklahoma City ThunderSeattle SeahawksSeattle Kraken

    Call me crazy, but I like another favorites ML parlay today. Bucs-Cowboys-Chiefs at roughly +125
     
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  17. seanofthedead86

    seanofthedead86 Well-Known Member
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    Tennessee VolunteersAtlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsAtlanta UnitedNavy Midshipmen

    Took an odds boost of Kelce TD + KC win @ +135
     
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  18. Tony Wonder

    Tony Wonder Well-Known Member
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    Michigan WolverinesDetroit LionsDetroit Red WingsNewcastle United

  19. seanofthedead86

    seanofthedead86 Well-Known Member
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    Tennessee VolunteersAtlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsAtlanta UnitedNavy Midshipmen

    James Holzhauer had a good article on The Athletic on when and when not to hedge and cash out.

    Hedging and cashing out are two ways a gambler can lower his risk, locking in a profit (or loss) by either betting the other side or settling his wager early for a partial payout. Hedging usually eats into your expected winnings, but can it ever make good business sense to do it? This month, let’s investigate situations where savvy bettors should consider lowering their risk, starting with general ideas before moving on to specific examples.

    General principles
    • Remember that one of your primary goals as a sports bettor should be to minimize the effect of the vig. Hedging directly interferes with this goal since it involves paying the vig at least twice–once for each bet–so it should not be done on a whim.
    • Your first step when considering any hedge is to calculate the present value of your bet: multiply your potential payout by the probability of winning. An average point spread bet of $110 to win $100 has a present value of $105: $210 * .5. If your team jumps out to a big lead and they’re 80% to cover, the current value is now $168: $210 * .8. If a hedge or cashout offers far less than your bet’s present value, don’t do it.
    • A good rule of thumb is that if you’re going to hedge, hedging should have been part of your plan from the beginning. There should be some specific reason for this plan, and your expected profit must be more than enough to cover the transactional costs of hedging. Perhaps a promotion gives an extra payout for a certain kind of bet, or you find a longshot future with a big edge. If you have a good justification for initially betting more than your normal amount, having a plan to hedge can easily be correct for both your bankroll and your happiness.
    By planning, you should never put yourself in a position to hedge unnecessarily–for example, cashing out a bet mid-game when you get cold feet or betting the other side on the last leg of a parlay because you didn’t realize what it would feel like to have a big dollar amount riding on one game. Just bet less in the first place, and you won’t be in this situation.

    • Sometimes, it can be correct to bet more than you’re comfortable risking on one game or prop, knowing that you can buy out of your position for a profit later. This usually happens when some inside information is not reflected in the current market price. For example, a star player is unexpectedly out for the game, or the odds on that game are already moving at other sportsbooks, and yours hasn’t caught up to the market yet. If you somehow get advanced knowledge that the price is about to move substantially, you should try to build a big position and be prepared to buy back on the other side after the odds shift. You need to watch the odds screen and news feeds like a hawk to jump the market like this. (Note that many sportsbooks use betting on both sides of the same game as a pretense to ban or limit your account, so you should be careful about hedging at the same shop.)
    • How much risk is too much? This is a deeply personal question, and what’s best for your long-term bankroll growth may not be best for your constitution. If you are losing sleep thinking about a pending bet, or if the thought of losing would make you sick to your stomach, you should find a way to lower your risk. However, in many cases, this simply means you are betting too much in the first place–hedging is not the problem; your bet sizing is.
    • When a football coach considers going for it on fourth down, one common maxim is to think about what the other team hopes you’ll do, then do just the opposite. What is the sportsbook hoping for when they present you with a cash-out button? Are they offering you a service that will cost them money in the long run, just out of the goodness of their hearts? Not bloody likely. Don’t do something that’s in the best interests of your opponent.
    Now let’s look at some specific situations a bettor may face and whether a hedge or cashout can make sense.

    Hedging or Cashing Out a Parlay – DON’T
    This may be the most common hedge scenario a typical bettor encounters, and it has an easy answer: say no. However, it may be wise to revisit how you bet parlays.

    Imagine that every week you bet a $20, 10-team NFL parlay with a potential payout of $10,000. You’ve never actually hit one, but for you, it’s akin to playing the lottery: investing a little and dreaming big. As you’re about to walk into the sportsbook, you find $5,000 lying on the ground, and you have no way of finding its owner to return it. After you pick up the cash and do a happy dance in your mind, do you rush to the window and bet it all on one game?

    Of course not: you’re a $20 bettor, and $5,000 is way out of your comfort zone–plus, you could put that money to much better use. However, this is exactly the scenario you’d find yourself in if you hit the first nine legs of your parlay: your $20 investment has suddenly ballooned into a giant all-or-nothing bet on the last leg, and you’ll likely feel the urge to hedge for a sure profit. To do this, not only would you need quick access to $5,000 to bet the other side, but you’ll also pay the vig twice for zero benefit: once to get into the position and once to get out of it.

    (If you bet your parlay on an app with cashouts enabled, you may be able to buy out of your last leg with one click, but you can be sure the sportsbook will charge you a hefty tax for the privilege. Again, there is no reason to put yourself in this position: just bet fewer legs.)

    It’s important to visualize this situation ahead of time and reduce your parlays to the point where you’re comfortable with the amount risked on the final leg. This is especially true if your parlay closes with the Sunday or Monday night game when all the other results are in the books: after all, no rule says you can’t roll your winnings from the daytime tilts into the night game if you so choose. Closing your parlay early gives you time to decide whether you want that $5,000 riding on a single result.

    (One possible exception could occur if the sportsbook is offering a really good promotion on parlays–say a five-teamer pays 40-1 when the real odds of winning are 31-1. If a promo gives you a big edge over the house, it’s worth betting the maximum even if you’ll give up some profit by hedging the last leg or two.)

    Hedging a Future – MAYBE
    A future bet is similar to a parlay in many ways, but a key difference is that there’s often no convenient way to take a lower payout for “one less leg.” For example, you typically can’t find a futures bet on a baseball team to advance to the ALCS or an NBA team to reach the conference finals. If your model estimates a team will win the conference 2% of the time, and you can get 100-1, it’s worth making a decent-sized bet knowing you’ll have the option to buy out of it later, even though you’ll probably have to pay some vig to do so. While you’d rather get 50-1 on the team winning one fewer round, this option was unavailable.

    (You should, however, strongly consider betting teams to advance to the finals rather than win the championship outright. This is especially true for longshots since the extra odds usually compensate for the team’s lower chances of winning in the last round. In our example, I’d definitely take 100-1 to win the conference rather than 200-1 to win the championship.)

    It would help if you didn’t automatically hedge a future bet, but it is often correct to do so. Remember our rule of thumb: this is something you can plan to do ahead of time and still expect to profit if your model shows a significant edge.

    Hedging or Cashing out Mid-game: DON’T
    This is even more clear-cut than the parlay example. You should never have so much riding on a single game that losing would be a total gut punch, and the sportsbook will almost never give you the fair value of your ticket to cash out a single game bet. Cashing out mid-game is a straight sucker play and if you want to make a long-term profit you should never do it.

    It’s true that you can lock in a profit or a “middle” if your team gets off to a good start, but remember that the line has changed because the fundamental odds on the game have shifted. You should appreciate that your bet looks like a winner, rather than look to sell it off at the first opportunity.

    (There may be times when the in-game line on the other side is a good bet on its own merit. In this case by all means bet the other side, but your primary goal should be to make another profitable wager, not to hedge.)

    Cashing out Futures – MAYBE
    Cashing out a future bet simply because it’s gone up in value is almost never the correct play. In my experience, the price the book offers is nowhere near the present value of your ticket–they are simply hoping you get nervous and take the sure profit. Do the math and you’ll find that in most cases even a full hedge would secure a substantially better return than a straight cashout. If you want to be a long-term winner, you need the conviction to not panic sell.

    That said, if you bet lots of season-long futures or propositions, you may find that you can sometimes cash out a ticket for significantly more than its fair market value. Here is a scenario I’ve come across multiple times this season: I bet a future at 4-1 at Sportsbook A when that is the best available market price. Later in the season, my team isn’t looking great: they’re now 6-1 at Sportsbook A and 8-1 at Sportsbook B. However, Sportsbook A will let me cash out my position for an effective price near 6-1. Even if I still like that team, it would be silly not to cash out and bet them at Sportsbook B instead, locking in a better price for the same proposition. This is a little like getting a retailer to price match their competitor’s sale: if you have the time, you might as well do it and save some money.

    Many times during this NFL season I’ve bet a future or season wins prop when the odds were so far off that even after my team lost that week’s game, the same prop re-opened for betting with its price unchanged. Generally the book will let you cash out for the exact cost of your ticket in this scenario, and I have occasionally done this if I felt that the team’s loss had eaten up most or all of my advantage.

    A note on cashout prices

    My experience suggests that the cashout price offered by the book depends not only on the present value of your wager, but also on the initial odds you locked in. To give one specific example, I had two active bets on a team to win their division at +150 and -125 respectively. The current price at that book was +100. The cashout offer for the -125 bet was for half of the potential payout–as you might expect–but the +150 price was significantly less than half. This suggests that at least at that shop, the cashout price is different based on whether you’re locking in a profit or a loss. This is almost certainly because bettors are more inclined to cash out for a positive return than a negative one.

    In conclusion, don’t look to hedge unless it’s necessary. Remember: when in doubt, ride it out.
     
  20. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    need KC -6.5 and Tampa -2.5 to complete a tease

    tampa team total 27.5

    Tom Brady over 2.5 passing touchdowns

    tom over 274 passing yards

    SF ML

    chiefs first half -7

    I am not as confident as when I placed these 3 days ago lol
     
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  21. The Fuck Lion

    The Fuck Lion Well-Known Member
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    Chicago BearsCleveland BrownsTiger Woods

    Not a good feel today

    Teased KC and TB, but this feels too obvious

    went Dallas -3 to buck the public, seems everyone likes the SF ML

    Gronkowski first score as well
     
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  22. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    Took Bernard over 2.5 receptions at +105
     
  23. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    Jumped on the Gronk one with you
     
  24. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Damn TB went from -9.5 yesterday to -7.5 with my girlfriend today.
     
  25. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Tuck Comin
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    Michigan State SpartansDetroit PistonsDetroit LionsDetroit Red WingsDetroit Tigers

    It’s down to 7.5 for everybody, not just your girlfriend.
     
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  26. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Haha was supposed to be "my guy" idk how it corrected to that
     
  27. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    2 points is a lot of moment for a playoff game, no?
     
  28. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    All the money on Tampa and the line moves to 7.5 :nobait:
     
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  29. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville Jaguars2pacSneakersPokerFormula 1

    Eagles +294
    SF +143
    KC -13
     
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  30. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    A Jeopardy article about hedging? I think I'll have to put on jazz, pour myself a glass of wine, and light some candles before reading this
     
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  31. seanofthedead86

    seanofthedead86 Well-Known Member
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    Went under 47.5 for the Tampa game
     
  32. HoosDaMan

    HoosDaMan Grumpy
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    I teased TB with KC too.
     
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  33. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    Put 5 units on it as my big bet of the day. Got 2 on the first drive. Replaced my playoff Lenny reception bet
     
  34. Tricky Gator

    Donor TMB OG
    Florida Gators

    Gonna go ahead and jinx myself but I’m so nervous that I need someone else to be nervous with me
     

    Attached Files:

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  35. seanofthedead86

    seanofthedead86 Well-Known Member
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    Tennessee VolunteersAtlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsAtlanta UnitedNavy Midshipmen

    Is the Tampa game the last leg?
     
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  36. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    Read the Hedge post above :laugh:
     
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  37. Willpépé

    Willpépé Well-Known Member
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    Philadelphia 76'ersArsenal

    I don’t know any of the people listed on there. Did those people all win?
     
  38. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Woo
     
  39. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    What in the world are the first 4 to 5 bets? What sport is that
     
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  40. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    UFC
     
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  41. Willpépé

    Willpépé Well-Known Member
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    Philadelphia 76'ersArsenal

    Follow up from my post, did they all win? No idea when they fight or any of that.
     
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  42. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Yes
     
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  43. Willpépé

    Willpépé Well-Known Member
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    Philadelphia 76'ersArsenal

    Alright thank you! Now I am excited for that bet. Good shit.
     
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  44. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    Hell ya. Let’s go tampa
     
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  45. Tricky Gator

    Donor TMB OG
    Florida Gators

    Bucs are the last leg
     
  46. Willpépé

    Willpépé Well-Known Member
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    Philadelphia 76'ersArsenal

    Nice job hitting the two dogs on the UFC as well.
     
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  47. Tricky Gator

    Donor TMB OG
    Florida Gators

    I almost started a gofundme last night after kattar for a hedge fund
     
  48. seanofthedead86

    seanofthedead86 Well-Known Member
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    Tennessee VolunteersAtlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsAtlanta UnitedNavy Midshipmen

    Had a live bet of Tampa team total over 30.5. fuck yeah
     
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  49. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
    Nebraska CornhuskersColorado RockiesDenver NuggetsKansas City ChiefsColorado AvalanceUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpoolBig 8 ConferenceNebraska Cornhuskers altFormula 1

  50. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
    Staff Donor

    Under bettors clench your butthole because this back door going to hurt
     
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