Does anyone have a good strategy for assigning confidence points in a pick em? Through the first two weeks of my pool this year I’m 0-6 on my 10, 11 and 12 point picks. I’m 13-3 on picks between 2-9 points so need to dial in my points
It's going to be hard to get above 55% win rate anyway, so just use your big points to fade public teams that are having spreads go against them after being published
I lost 4 live bets. -3.5 right after the injury, and -5 and -6.5 also were placed as I thought for sure Josh Allen could and should beat a Jets offense that couldn't pass the ball. In the second quarter, I also bet U37.5. One of the worst live betting games I've had.
So I just tried to log into my BetMGM account, hadn't done so in probably 3 or 4 months. Well not it says my account is self-excluded? Seems really strange. I hadn't logged in for a long while and never voluntarily self excluded myself.
These legalized books are setting precedent that’s awful for the future. Refunding Aaron Rodgers futures for MVP
If you bet Rodgers MVP, you deserve to lose your money. If a player enters a game, the bet should be valid. If scratched before it starts, I believe they all refund the bet for single game player props.
100% agree. But they’re all trying to do marketing and refunding and have set an awful precedent and there’s no consistency
so what? who is going to hold them to that "precedent?" this isn't legal precedent, this is just them doing something because they want to. and if Justin Jefferson gets hurt tonight, people can ask them to refund the Jefferson tickets. But if they don't want to, there is nothing anyone can do about it.
learning that "the books are not your friend" seems like an important lesson for all bettors to know.
i don't really care either way but there's a big difference to me between a single game bet (where the "game" barely happened because the injury was so early) and a season-long bet (where injury is sort of part of the calculus). that might not be exactly logical but that's how i think about it in terms of "fairness".
All bets are action. Once you start refunding after a few plays or a few drives or few quarters, you start having gray area so it's better to just have it black and white Also a reminder that the Jets won that game so refunding game bets would be even more ridiculous
Also, this is a pretty fair trade-off with circa. They let you bet no matter what but the rules are black and white and no promos
Big thanks to Draftkings for hanging Memphis +120 during that review when Navy was certainly short of the yard to gain
These are my pick’em for this week. Just ATS or O/U, doesn’t matter by how much. Don’t love the Colorado State game, could be talked out of that for sure
What do we have today boys? I’m ice cold right now but these are my noon leans. Indiana +10 Penn St -14 K State -3.5
Tbh I was over thinking it. Grabbed it early in the week in case the storm went off track (which it sort of did)
I can't bring myself to bet against Bama, just can't do it, but USF +34 looked like gold value to me. This isn't Bama that most are used to.
2-1. Finally a couple winners. Bama -34 Wyoming +30 Florida ML bc fuck it Colorado -24 bc I’m gonna ride with prime till he fucks me
I had one of those DK specials again with a 50 percent boost on a parlay. FSU fucked me. Had LSU and PSU whatever their lines were and UNC -7.
Just like to reiterate how stupid it is that I can bet an unlimited amount on the yardage total of a single player in the 2H of a college football game, yet betting on the spread of an NFL game is illegal.