Gambling Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by bro, Nov 25, 2020.

  1. mp_22

    mp_22 Well-Known Member
    Duke Blue DevilsPhiladelphia PhilliesLos Angeles RamsPhiladelphia FlyersSouthern California Trojans

    Sixers/nuggets first quarter 56.5
     
  2. VASooner

    VASooner Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Washington NationalsOklahoma City ThunderCleveland BrownsDallas CowboysOklahoma SoonersLiverpool

    Joke's on you!
     
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  3. mp_22

    mp_22 Well-Known Member
    Duke Blue DevilsPhiladelphia PhilliesLos Angeles RamsPhiladelphia FlyersSouthern California Trojans

    Suns/Hawks first quarter 56
     
  4. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
    Nebraska CornhuskersColorado RockiesDenver NuggetsKansas City ChiefsColorado AvalanceUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpoolBig 8 ConferenceNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    IG MICH ML -120
     
  5. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
    Nebraska CornhuskersColorado RockiesDenver NuggetsKansas City ChiefsColorado AvalanceUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpoolBig 8 ConferenceNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    IG LAC -8.5
     
  6. MrLongo

    MrLongo Active Member
    Alabama Crimson TideLos Angeles DodgersGreen Bay PackersLas Vegas Golden KnightsSoutheastern ConferencePoker

    Anyone bet baseball on a regular basis? If so what do you look for? Pitching matchups, home field etc?
     
  7. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville Jaguars2pacSneakersPoker

    Opening Day

    Yankees
    Cleveland
    Milwaukee
    Pittsburgh
    Atlanta
    Cincinnati
    Colorado
    Miami
    KC
    SD
    White Sox
    Astros
    Seattle
     
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  8. VASooner

    VASooner Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Washington NationalsOklahoma City ThunderCleveland BrownsDallas CowboysOklahoma SoonersLiverpool

    No Runs Scored 1st Inning +391
    NY/TOR
    CLE/DET
    MIN/MIL

    1st Homer of 2021
    Judge +1700
    LeMahieu +2500

    NY/TOR U7.5
    SF/SEA U8.5
     
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  9. VASooner

    VASooner Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Washington NationalsOklahoma City ThunderCleveland BrownsDallas CowboysOklahoma SoonersLiverpool

    Adding Oak and SF ML, both at -105
     
  10. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWENebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Similar question but does anyone have a good site for specific matchups and splits? I always find fangraphs hard to navigate.

    It’d be nice to find matchup history and splits for player props
     
  11. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
    Donor
    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    Getting to live bet at an actual sporting event? Life is good
    5FC04E67-EE8F-4249-AF75-6058F050813D.jpeg
     
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  12. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
    Donor
    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    Nothing like taking the Dodgers over because it is a game at altitude. And then getting to watch them bash the ball at Coors
     
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  13. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
    Donor
    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    I’m here with 2 people. Collectively, we bet on Seager, will Smith, and Muncy to hit a HR. They all have hit to the warning track tonight. No HRs tonight. Brutal
     
  14. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    saw blazers +10.5 earlier and deposited a couple bucks. moved down to +8.5 in the process and still took it :|

    now on blazers +650 :angrycorn:
     
  15. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    so oregon sportsbook offers these "either team by 1-5" bets. essentially you're getting a 10 point margin at a way better price than the spread, especially if it's like 3 points like this blazers-bucks game was. what's their angle here? i bet it only every once in awhile because i feel like i'm missing something obvious
     
  16. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    End of game fouling ruins this bet all the time
     
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  17. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    is it a sucker bet? i don't quite understand how they can price something like, for example, bucks -3 vs the blazers at +180 for "either team by 1-5"

    obviously the bucks just crushed portland but that's just the most recent example in my head
     
  18. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    What’s the limit?
     
  19. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    i'm too poor and casual for them to matter for me, so unknown

    oregon's legal betting app sucks the biggest ass, so probably low. they don't allow same game parlays (ie spread and over) anymore presumably because they were getting killed on them. they also don't allow multiple ingame bets on the same thing, ie you get 1 live spread bet per game
     
  20. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    It's a sucker bet like every bet is a sucker bet.

    The average margin of victory in the NBA is 12ish right now. That's why it's the way it is
     
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  21. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    But if it’s a spread that is -5 or less and it’s better than -110 it’s definitely a better deal. The thing is it’s probably $50 or less and it’s not like it’s 100% I’m sure it’s still profitable for them while giving edges here and there
     
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  22. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    why don't the spreads reflect this*? is it to suck money out of people like me?

    edit: *they don't seem much different from when i've looked for the past ~10 years. i don't keep records, though
     
  23. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    I disagree, if it's -5 that means there's an 50% chance that the favorite wins by more than 5 but doesn't say anything about the underdog winning by more than 5.

    Of the remaining 50% there's a good chance the underdog wins by more than 5
     
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  24. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    I guess I should have explicitly said if you are already on the side of the favorite.
     
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  25. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    Because upsets are increasingly more common this year too
     
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  26. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    appreciate the responses :beerchug: . i'm sure i'll have more dumb questions at a later date
     
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  27. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    [​IMG]

    A year outdated but still good info
     
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  28. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    Just ran some numbers and it seems like about 27% of games have margin of victory of 1-5 heading into this year. I'm guessing about 22-24% this year so +300 is probably fair value
     
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  29. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    i definitely would not have guessed that the median/average margin of victory would stay more or less constant as teams have gotten more and more aggressive about hunting 3s

    nfl spreads are so damn tight and there is all of this noise about how it's the hardest sport to bet on, but that data makes it seem like it's pretty similar in difficulty to the nba
     
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  30. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    I haven't been able to get live betting NBA down. The data is just so good on the NBA right now
     
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  31. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersLos Angeles LakersLos Angeles RamsAnaheim DucksManchester UnitedLos Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    Dennis Schroeder got pulled with 5 mins left :(

    But that might be my best score all year. I play single or 3 entry contests so payouts all look around the same amount of I entered others.

    35BD5A6B-2047-453D-B756-6ED6A6BED1C4.png
     
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  32. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    i only watch probably 40 blazer games a year at this point but there still seems to be some value in knowing the substitution patterns for a given team. and also just kind of how the team plays, how they go on runs, etc. obviously this requires a shitload of time investment if you're watching one team, let alone like a half-dozen

    and just anecdotally, the live spread algorithms in the last 5 years, particularly in the last 2ish, have gotten much sharper. i specifically remember an okc-clippers game from like 2015 where the game was tied going into the 4th, durant and westbrook didn't play, but the live spread was like okc +21. that type of thing just doesn't happen anymore :|
     
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  33. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    I've been messing with totals and that's way more successful for me. Agreed on the algorithms but they seem less sharp on o/u.
     
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  34. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    like in-game totals?
     
  35. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    Yep, I only bet promos and in-game
     
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  36. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersLos Angeles LakersLos Angeles RamsAnaheim DucksManchester UnitedLos Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    California is a progressive state with it's track record on marijuana laws, but is slow as fuck on the sports betting laws is so annoying. I've seen the Native American casinos pushing for on site only legislation at there places and I am negative nancy and see this happening.
     
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  37. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    i am curious about in-game totals. any helpful links or books?
     
  38. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

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  39. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWENebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Went 0-3 in NHL (lol) but had minimal juice plus one + money.

    Thankfully that was offset by a parlay of Dodgers -1.5, Giants +105, White Sox +113 that paid +594.

    I rarely bet or hit parlays so that was nice.
     
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  40. juice

    juice this a cult, not a clique
    Donor
    Georgia Bulldogs

    What’s everybody leaning with the final four games tonight?
     
  41. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
    Donor
    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    Chalk
     
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  42. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    I can't see a situation where I *don't* bet the live over in the Houston/Baylor game at half
     
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  43. VASooner

    VASooner Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Washington NationalsOklahoma City ThunderCleveland BrownsDallas CowboysOklahoma SoonersLiverpool

    NY/TOR NRFI -140
    BAL/BOS NRFI +100

    Baylor -5
     
    #4343 VASooner, Apr 3, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2021
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  44. VASooner

    VASooner Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Washington NationalsOklahoma City ThunderCleveland BrownsDallas CowboysOklahoma SoonersLiverpool

  45. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    :)
     
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  46. VASooner

    VASooner Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Washington NationalsOklahoma City ThunderCleveland BrownsDallas CowboysOklahoma SoonersLiverpool

    Well that was a good day.

    TOR/NY NRFI +100
    ATL/PHI NRFI -115
     
  47. VASooner

    VASooner Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Washington NationalsOklahoma City ThunderCleveland BrownsDallas CowboysOklahoma SoonersLiverpool

    This shit is too easy.
     
  48. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
    Donor
    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersDenver NuggetsBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

     
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  49. VASooner

    VASooner Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Washington NationalsOklahoma City ThunderCleveland BrownsDallas CowboysOklahoma SoonersLiverpool

    Zaga first to 5 and first to 20 +200 on BetMGM
     
  50. juice

    juice this a cult, not a clique
    Donor
    Georgia Bulldogs

    What’s the move for tonight guys?