Global Warming Debunked Again

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by TheChatch, Apr 25, 2015.

  1. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    Global warming more moderate than worst-case models, empirical data suggest -- ScienceDaily
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    A new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records suggests global warming is not progressing as fast as it would under the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    "Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely, at least for now," said Patrick T. Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment. "But this could change."

    The Duke-led study shows that natural variability in surface temperatures -- caused by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and other natural factors -- can account for observed changes in the recent rates of warming from decade to decade.

    The researchers say these "climate wiggles" can slow or speed the rate of warming from decade to decade, and accentuate or offset the effects of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. If not properly explained and accounted for, they may skew the reliability of climate models and lead to over-interpretation of short-term temperature trends.

    The research, published today in the peer-reviewed journal Scientific Reports, uses empirical data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.

    "At any given time, we could start warming at a faster rate if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase without any offsetting changes in aerosol concentrations or natural variability," said Wenhong Li, assistant professor of climate at Duke, who conducted the study with Brown.

    The team examined whether climate models, such as those used by the IPCC, accurately account for natural chaotic variability that can occur in the rate of global warming as a result of interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and other natural factors.

    To test how accurate climate models are at accounting for variations in the rate of warming, Brown and Li, along with colleagues from San Jose State University and the USDA, created a new statistical model based on reconstructed empirical records of surface temperatures over the last 1,000 years.

    "By comparing our model against theirs, we found that climate models largely get the 'big picture' right but seem to underestimate the magnitude of natural decade-to-decade climate wiggles," Brown said. "Our model shows these wiggles can be big enough that they could have accounted for a reasonable portion of the accelerated warming we experienced from 1975 to 2000, as well as the reduced rate in warming that occurred from 2002 to 2013."

    Further comparative analysis of the models revealed another intriguing insight.

    "Statistically, it's pretty unlikely that an 11-year hiatus in warming, like the one we saw at the start of this century, would occur if the underlying human-caused warming was progressing at a rate as fast as the most severe IPCC projections," Brown said. "Hiatus periods of 11 years or longer are more likely to occur under a middle-of-the-road scenario."

    Under the IPCC's middle-of-the-road scenario, there was a 70 percent likelihood that at least one hiatus lasting 11 years or longer would occur between 1993 and 2050, Brown said. "That matches up well with what we're seeing."

    There's no guarantee, however, that this rate of warming will remain steady in coming years, Li stressed. "Our analysis clearly shows that we shouldn't expect the observed rates of warming to be constant. They can and do change."

    Eugene C. Cordero of San Jose State University and Steven A. Mauget of the USDA Agricultural Research Service in Lubbock, Texas, co-authored the new study with Brown and Li.

    Journal Reference:

    1. Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero and Steven A. Mauget. Comparing the Model-Simulated Global Warming Signal to Observations Using Empirical Estimates of Unforced Noise. Scientific Reports, April 21, 2015 DOI: 10.1038/srep09957
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    Looks like I don't have to feel guilty when I go buy a new SUV and opt for the biggest engine they offer. :mulletsmug:
     
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  2. soulfly

    soulfly Well-Known Member
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    It's funny with you being all smug as shit when our state is going through an absurd drought with record low snowpack
     
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  3. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    I turned the hose on to water the plants on the deck today and water came out. All good over here in gods country. :mulletsmug:
     
  4. Moxin24

    Moxin24 Show me that smile
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    Its funny that weather =/= climate when it snows in May, but it does when there's a drought out west.
     
  5. soulfly

    soulfly Well-Known Member
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    :facepalm:
     
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  6. Moxin24

    Moxin24 Show me that smile
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    :bananallama:
     
  7. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    Soulfly was pretty young and impressionable when The Day After Tomorrow hit theaters.
     
  8. Moxin24

    Moxin24 Show me that smile
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  9. bwi2

    bwi2 Not affiliated with BWI
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    Interesting article writing, because ""Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely, at least for now," said Patrick T. Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment" seems to be the headline to me.

    Or "Reality tracks with scientific modeling" works, too.
     
  10. soulfly

    soulfly Well-Known Member
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    :yaoface:

    Movie doesn't even have subtitles
     
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  11. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    lol remember Al Gore up there telling us that the earth would be free of polar ice by 2015?

    Fucking penguins and polar bears are partying it up right now :yousoright:
     
  12. joey jo-jo jr shabadoo

    joey jo-jo jr shabadoo the pope of chilitown

    They're partying because they know what the word "debunked" means.

    Unlike some around these parts.
     
  13. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    can we all just agree global warming is a thing but just differ on whether we should do something about it or not.

    if you don't care... that I can handle.
     
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  14. Moxin24

    Moxin24 Show me that smile
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    Nope

     
  15. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    :loldog:
     
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  16. soulfly

    soulfly Well-Known Member
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    Bruh, penguins are getting raped by seals. I don't think they're partying right now
     
  17. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    I'm fully on board with the notion of global warming, global cooling, and global not doing much of anything.
     
  18. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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  19. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    Wait, global warming isn't real because the most extreme scenario is unlikely?

    #datlogic
     
  20. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    Soulfly is right about our lack of snowpack in the PNW. The effects of our mild winter were downright terrifying. I had to fly down to Park City just to get a weekend of skiing in.
     
  21. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    joey jo-jo jr shabadoo has a friend in this thread.
     
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  22. RoyalShocker

    RoyalShocker But I don't wanna be a Nazi
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    He is actually that stupid. Luckily, his aunt is wealthy I read somewhere.
     
  23. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    Yes I'm definitely that stupid.
     
  24. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    that was big of you to admit that
     
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  25. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    Wait do you really think that I believe the notion of climate change or even man made climate change has been "debunked"? do I have to go on the record or something? Christ.
     
  26. 00:06:00

    00:06:00 Didnt like me then, gonna hate me now
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    long as my toilet flushes Im pretty much straight
     
  27. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    I was fucking around, jesus
     
  28. RoyalShocker

    RoyalShocker But I don't wanna be a Nazi
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    For the record, yes, I do believe you are that stupid.
     
  29. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    Well that certainly hurts my feelings.
     
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  30. MoJo

    MoJo It bees that way sometimes...
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    I believe global warming is a thing... now what?
     
  31. Moxin24

    Moxin24 Show me that smile
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  32. cutig

    cutig My name is Rod, and I like to party
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    Now you argue endlessly on the Internet about it
     
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  33. MoJo

    MoJo It bees that way sometimes...
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    That's fun and all, but that's done on here ad nauseam. What's the next step for believers?
     
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  34. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    [​IMG]
     
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  35. afb

    afb Spoiler Alert: Pawnee, IN may not be on a map.
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    guys, the planet is clearly cooling

    [​IMG]

    you just need to turn your life upside down face

    [​IMG]
     
  36. Joe_Pesci

    Joe_Pesci How can less be more? It's impossible
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    when it comes to stuff published in scientific journals, i don't read it and go with my gut instinct 10 times out of 10
     
  37. cutig

    cutig My name is Rod, and I like to party
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    And if you do read it and disagree, you just discount them as being completely wrong because you say so.
     
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  38. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    Your graph ends 15 years ago, tiger.
     
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  39. afb

    afb Spoiler Alert: Pawnee, IN may not be on a map.
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    You realize that each notch is 20 years right? And that the graph clearly goes beyond 2000.....

    Must be nice to be this ignorant in life.
     
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  40. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    Some would call it blissful.
     
  41. miles

    miles All I know is my gut says, maybe
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    Gonna be interesting to see how long it takes for something like the florida keys disappearing. (Probably not in our lifetimes)

    I'd imagine it'll take something like that before much is actually done to slow it down.
     
  42. I<3privatedances

    I<3privatedances enjoys himself in the champagne room
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    I'll take global warming over another ice age everyday of the week.
     
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  43. NineteenNine

    NineteenNine Divers are, in fact, wankers. It's science.
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    and by then, it's already too late...that's the point behind trying to do something now even though it's not "worst case scenario."
     
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  44. TheChatch

    TheChatch Big Paws On A Puppy.
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    So what's middle of the road scenario?

    Because I'm wholly uninterested in taking an axe to the global economy unless it means my favorite Italian restaurant in Manhattan is going to be under water before I die.
     
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  45. NineteenNine

    NineteenNine Divers are, in fact, wankers. It's science.
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    umm, what does that have to do with trying to not destroy the earth?
     
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  46. Artoo

    Artoo Ah Skywalker, Missed you I have.
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    Chatch is one of those that thinks that running the world on renewable energy will somehow collapse economies.
     
  47. Jim Brockmire

    Jim Brockmire I think you're wildly underestimating heroin.
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    Me too. I can't wait until polar bears and winter coats are a thing of the past.
     
  48. CraigAnne Conway

    CraigAnne Conway Putting that ball into the basketball ring
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    lol irl
     
  49. Moxin24

    Moxin24 Show me that smile
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    I think most, if not all, conservatives would LOVE to see the world run on renewable energy. Problem is there's no evidence that there's a cost effective, plausible and sustainable way to make that happen. And until there's some evidence of that, its probably a bad idea for the government to place onerous regulations on American companies, especially when they won't apply to their global competitors.


    Its also the price the left plays for LYING THEIR FUCKING ASSES OFF about what was going to happen by the year 2000, 2010, 2015 if we didn't make radical changes.
     
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  50. Moxin24

    Moxin24 Show me that smile
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    Just to be clear, I don't blame liberals specifically for being hilariously wrong about the consequences of global warming. I blame them for pretending they were smarter than everyone else when all they did was parrot back the bullshit their political leaders spewed to try and demonize the evil oil companies and win elections.
     
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