In a vacuum, Bill and arms for Murphy, $$$ for SS and figure out left field on the cheap makes plenty of sense. It's not exactly how I'd go about things but order of operations here is going to be important.
Love Bill, but honestly this move cleans up so much. - Got the C of the next 6-8 years - Clear out room for the draftee pitchers - Extends the life of what TDA can do for the club beyond 2023; we can easily keep him as a primary DH/spell C for at least three more years now.
Yeah I’m glad we cleared out some AAAA arms. We saw enough of Muller. He may be good but he’s not helping the team the next 2-3 years at least.
Would you offer an extension now? It’s risky for a catcher. He has 3 years of arbitration before FA, during which time he’ll likely make around $17m. He will be the same age when he hits FA as Realmuto was when he signed with the Phillies for 5/$115m. If we offered 8/$120m ($3.5m in 2023, $6m in 2024, $8.5m in 2025, and then $20.4 for 2026-2030) he’d probably sign it. That would lock in his AAV for the CBT at a much higher rate during his arbitration years but a much lower during his 5 FA years than if we wait until FA to extend him. It’s a risk for a catcher, but he’s the best since Realmuto and it guarantees him money. I’m not even sure if we can afford it or not.
I would give him something like 5/60 or 6/80 (3.5/6.5/13/17/20/20*). We can definitely afford it if we want, just a question of whether they do.
If he's the closest thing to Relamuto.. lock him up. Being able to add a premium player long term justifies the outlay.
Why would you trade D’Arnaud? He’s a very good hitter who’s getting older and probably happy he doesn’t have to catch 100+ games a year anymore. He still has tons of utility, even more than before imo.
I like Dansby. He’s had some big moments for us. However, he’s extremely inconsistent. And I have a hard time trusting a guy having a career year in a walk year. They hardly repeat it. I wouldn’t mind him back, but wouldn’t touch him at more than $20 million AAV. Let someone else pay that.
Law.. Murphy is an elite defensive catcher, at least on the short list of the very best in baseball right now, with an 80 arm, strong framing and receiving skills, and a good reputation (for whatever it’s worth) for working with pitchers. He’s got plus power that has been dampened by playing in a septic tank for half his games the last few years, hitting 18 homers in 148 games in 2022. I think he’s going to hit 25+ now that he’s free, maybe with some of those 37 doubles he hit last year going over the fence now, so to speak, enough that he’ll look like he’s improved a lot as a player even if it’s just the change in venue. Contreras had a very credible season for Atlanta last year, so this is only about a 1-2 win improvement, but it gives them more certainty behind the plate, improves the team defensively and frees them up to trade Travis d’Arnaud ($8 million in 2023) to clear a little salary. Milwaukee makes out extremely well by inserting themselves into this trade, nabbing catcher William Contreras, who’s about to turn 25 and just hit .278/.354/.506 in 97 games, by sending Piña and Ruiz to Oakland. Contreras isn’t the defensive catcher Murphy is, but he’s a better hitter, with just as much power, a better hit tool and a better eye. He strikes out more than Murphy does, although he’s three years younger and should bring his K rate (which was over 27 percent last year) down going forward. But I’m not entirely sure I’d rather have Murphy than Contreras in a vacuum, and I think it’s easier to argue for Contreras in reality given his youth and additional two years of control. Murphy gets about a win of extra value over Contreras from his framing, although we know framing can improve with coaching, and there’s always the chance that will go away if and when MLB goes to some sort of automated strike zone.
Yeah but Murphy is elite behind the plate and Bill is on the opposite end of the spectrum framing/arm wise Didn’t realize he was that bad because he seemingly called a pretty good game for most of the staff when he caught last year.
Just think we'd like Bill's offense over Murphy's defense. Especially with how the division is shaping up.
This was likely the only way we were getting a talent like Murphy and we will be quite glad for it down the line imo.
I knew very little about Murphy. I was just expecting him to be better than Bill in ways other than framing and throwing.
It’s more than that. The difference between their offensive profiles is there, but relatively marginal. The difference between their defensive profiles is gaping. Put Murphy in Truist for 81 games and I think that offensive difference will get even smaller. The defensive upgrade is stratospheric no matter what park it is.
TDA only has a year left, right? While I’d love to have both (and still wonder why Milwaukee was even involved), this seems to be a long term move and I think Murphy’s the better player. AA probably moved on it now because he knew Oakland was trading Murphy one way or another this offseason.
Despite what the tweets say, I think the only player we could have offered Oakland from the system that would have fit the Ruiz profile would be somebody like Grissom or Arcia; without SS locked up, that was too much for us to give away. Our primary trade capital was at P and C and we needed to get rid of two catchers to make it work. Contreras wasn’t going to work with Oakland and we didn’t have a utility guy to spare that Oakland would want, hence the inclusion of Milwaukee. IMO
While I think Bill was probably the better backup/part time DH, that’s not to say with more rest TDA can’t be that either. He’s been behind the dish a lot the last few years. Maybe a small break will help increase his offensive numbers.