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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.
For the passive investors, what is your performance since covid hit (~Feb 20)?
My 401k is -14% during that timeframe.
Since feb 17th, my 401k is down 10%
both my vanguard and wealthfront by pure performance are down 10%
due to shoving money in during the drop and rebound I'm 1% green on wealthfront money wise
Up 4.7% in Vanguard taxable and IRA combined
-2.99% in 401k
Lost a couple hundred bucks fucking around with options and cashed what was left of that account out before I really became a degenerate
Up 1.6% YTD on Fundrise
EOM February I’m about flat - down a percent maybe.
From beginning of Feb it's a different story.
since ~Feb 21
+7.8% on passive investing account
+4.5% on IRA
makes no sense
-14.3% since Feb 20 in my 401K.
401k -5.92% since 2/20
401(k): Down 17% since 3/1
Passive brokerage account (just mutual funds): Down about 8.5% since 3/1
Trading account: Down 5% since 3/1. Take out one really bad UCO trade, and I'm up about 8%
Really good article from forbes on the changing environment around debt over the last decade amongst some of the biggest and most well known companies.
Artificially low interest rates make debt an easy business decision
to a point yes. Many of these companies took it to the extreme. Without the fed refusing to allow big companies to go bankrupt, plenty of major names would be fucked. Now that they know the fed won’t let them fail though and will socialize the losses, it would be dumb not to run the business that way. It would be like if I ran up my credit card debt knowing I had a rich parent who would wipe it out whenever I needed help.
If only more of the American public knew who Jerome Powell is and how incompetent the Federal reserve is
We'll be paying for it down the road, like everything with this administration
Since Feb 1, my Schwab intelligent portfolio is down 12%
The administration makes no difference. Dems would do the same thing. Price discovery has long been dead.
How many different stonks do you guys like to keep in your portfolio for diversification purposes?
I imagine a lot of people are just in index funds. I am, so I've got the total US and total international stock markets.
I think 20-25 individual stocks is a good number.
ideally you want to see 50-100 but an individual can’t keep up with a portfolio that big unless it’s a full time job. I think 20-25 is realistic but still requires attention and due diligence. I always say that if you don’t have the will, skill and time to self manage, you won’t do well on your own and should index/hire someone. You really need all 3. By self manage I mean stock pick. Anyone should be able to self manage the 401k to do minor rebalancing/reallocating or reallocating/rebalancing index funds if they choose to go that route. Also important for a stock picking individual investor to understand their own biases. Do you know companies in your industry more and tend to overload on those stocks? I’ve seen so many clients overweight in their own company stock or own industry because they understand it. Important to spread the sectors out some. Doesn’t mean you can’t overweight a sector you like but if it’s always the same sector it’s likely bias.
Typically 10-15 indexes and 20-30 stocks
About 2-3 leveraged ETFs go big or go home
Have y’all looked into GAN? It provides betting and gambling software as a service. It works with casinos in the U.S. and around the world. The company also works with FanDuel, Paddy Power and Betfair. It’s trading at only $15.45. I think it’s poised for a run and provides better value than DKNG.
I hadn’t, but it sounds interesting. I may sell a little of my DKNG and pick some up.
Premarket looks great, I just hope it holds til the open
Reading about Hertz this morning. Big LOL that Carl Icahn is taking a bath on 1.5B in equity that is toast. Even for a guy worth tens of billions, that’s a mammoth.
Anyone own the BBUS ETF? Guess it’s pretty new but I’m forcing myself to buy every 500pt move and I’m out of ideas/individual stocks.
The markets were mixed on Friday in pre-Holiday trading. The Dow finished with a loss of 9 points, closing at 24,465. It was up 780 points for the week. The NASDAQ gained 39 points on Friday and was up 310 points for the week.
Friday’s low volume session produced a second consecutive small change signal in the A-D Oscillator. This means that we need to be on the lookout for a Big Move when the market re-opens on Tuesday. Given the sideways triangle pattern that has developed during the week, along with positive market timing indicators and a strong Sector Ratio, I would expect that move to be up. It should be the final wave in the retracement rally that started from the 23 March low, testing the 29 April high of 24,765 and eventually completing near the 25,000 level.
If the market does begin to move higher next week, the rally could be swift. So, students will need to be on their toes, and NOT get caught up in the hype of the new high. Remember, last week we saw several EXTREME P/C ratios come in from the CBOE, reflecting unrealistic investor optimism. These EXTREME ratios MUST be taken seriously, especially since they are occurring at a time when the pattern suggests the potential rally is final wave 5 of a Major five wave retracement. So, if the market starts to move higher, students should try to avoid the FOMO, and instead begin looking to establish short or inverse positions as the Dow moves above the 24,765 level. BTW, it's still possible that the Dow could push well above the 25,000 level, as a full Fibonacci retracement could take the Industrials as high as 25,865. I doubt that this will happen because of the EXTREME amount of optimism in the market now, but it could. Students should watch for a change in the Market Timing Indicators as a Negative turn would likely signal the next leg down of the Bear Market is underway. Remember, my target for the next wave down, Major Wave C down, remains below the 18,000 level.
The Market Timing Indicators for the Major Indexes are Positive.
The Dean’s List and The Tide are also Positive.
The Sector Ratio came in at 22-2 Positive after Friday’s session. The top 5 strongest Sectors were Material (includes gold) Energy, Technology, Cap Goods, and Healthcare. If the market begins to move higher on Tuesday, the above sectors should lead the way. The two weak sectors were Banks and Real Estate. Students should note that even though the Dow gained 780 points for the week, the Banking Sector, which has been near the top of the Weak List for weeks, did not participate in the rally. The sector will be one of my top candidates for a short IF the market moves to higher levels. On the other hand, you might want to take a quick look at what gold and mining stocks have been doing since mid-March. The Materials Sector has been leading the Strong Sector List for how long???? If you want to know where the strength is so you can select a few stocks to trade.......just look at which sector(s) are at the top of the Strong List. Stop worrying about what the overall market is going to do. Pay more attention to which sectors are the strongest. That's where you want to be.
Gold (GLD) rose 0.96 cents on Friday to 163.21. At this point it’s not clear what the next move in gold will be. If stocks start to move higher, the pattern suggests gold and mining stocks could pull back as money moves out of gold and into other, more attractive equities. The Gold Miners Index, the HUI, closed at 285 yesterday. The chart suggests it could pull back to the 240 level. If this happens, I will view gold and the miners as an attractive buying opportunity, as the next wave would likely be an impulsive wave 3 up.
Same for Bonds. If equities begin to move up next week, Bonds should fall. The Model’s shares of TBT could be an attractive place to be. The 2-period RSI on TLT is overbought at 85.28, with the VTI showing No Trend (45.12).
The Model continues to hold 600 shares of TBT, and 500 shares of GOLD, 40 shares of UCO, with a cash balance of $73,747.
I bought a ‘trial’ position in DDM for my own account late Friday when my new Scalp Trading Indicators turned positive. This was a case where I used the new indicators to establish a Position Trade, something I plan to hold for the next few days.
The market will be closed on Monday, 25 May, in honor of Memorial Day. My next Update will be on Wednesday, 27 May.
Have a safe holiday weekend,
That’s what I’m doing,
Stocks are a lot of fun on days like this. The overwhelming optimism still doesn’t make sense to me though and I have to think further corrections are coming
I'm convinced the heat is reducing the infections but the fall is going to be a shitshow
for us to hit 18k again you're looking at a large second wave and states being forced to reinforce shelter in place measures, and not just one or two states but like a dozen+
probably also coinciding with things like the NFL season getting cancelled
the combo of a potential heat impact on the virus transmission (juries still out but seems some nominal case for it) + normal behaviors reducing transmission in the summer, where we counter with now really aggressive restriction pull back is a recipe for a disaster if we don't act fast at signs of regression
could get caught flat footed and september explodes before behavior reverts. the idea of mass gatherings happening is just jet fuel for a second wave, it's reckless.
Money has been flooded into a re-opening economy. Seems reasonable to me that it’s moving up.
Unrelated: Lyrtch and others...how do you like WeBull?
sold these for a modest 20% gain
i never ended up really using it, i always check myself and realize the stupidity of doing day trading. maybe if i get really bored i'll crank it up.
ftr if you made me guess on a huge second wave causing restrictions again and economic tumult i'd go 60/40 right now, maybe 70/30 because of political reasons. we've learned individual level behavior modification has been a likely large-ish driver of pushing the infection rate down but those behaviors are slipping and in some areas quickly. how fast do they snap back if deaths start rising? we'll be much closer to election day, how much pressure is there for continued or more aggressive obfuscation on reporting by red states that is likely to increase uncontrolled spread scenarios due to people not having proper information for behavior modification? imo high. do we see continued growth in social distancing/masking division along partisan lines? imo yes but not as much as you might think based on reporting, polling has shown it's only slipped single digits so far but is hyper regional.
and this is why i'm letting my liquidity build back up currently, vs the pre 24k market i was mostly just shoveling it all in. i'd be pretty shocked by hitting 18k again, but 22k from probably a 26-27k dow in August doesn't seem unreasonable. the external pressure to ALL IS WELL in parts of the country in the fall is going to be incredibly high which will cause worse outcomes.
In at $54.61 earlier
Anyone still hanging on to SPXU?
these markets are getting bid up overnight on low volume. 80-90% of the gains over the past few weeks have come from futures overnight, not intraday movement
Wait, so are we still waiting for Wave C Down or are we in Wave 5 Up?
Is that unusual? How much movement is typically from intraday vs overnight or extended hours?
One of you mentioned NBR when it was $17. Nice call.
Isn't it obvious?
Even if you do believe in the technical predictors, how could it possibly have any application in this current situation?
In small waves of non-major stocks, I think there's use...but trying to figure out major waves right now feels near-impossible.
Doubled down on my JPM long holds with some call options this AM and I'm loving the decision.
The only thing I am really taking from his posts right now is that there will be a major correction. There is no way our economy is as stable or as good as the market is representing. So I am not buying for the long haul right now. I am trading daily and weekly.
Up roughly 25% since 3/1
And that is after taking a bath on both UCO and SCO. Put those losses back in and I would be up almost 41%