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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.
60/40 portfolio is toast.
This has worked out well so far. I think there is a ton of upside, though I do expect a lot more choppiness through all of 2023
Bonds and dollar local tops are in
let’s get some relief through EOY
Maybe, hard to have confidence in that when bonds are dropping 1.5% a day.
I won’t be surprised if we get some relief here though as raising .75 to .5% is viewed as a pivot. It doesn’t change things though and by Q1 it will be apparent.
Technical set up says it’s in. Fundamentally, new lows will come next year.
The pivot commentary is hysterical, Fed confirming what they said they would do 2 months ago and everyone is horny to call it a pivot. ….no lol
there’s some very convincing hedging set ups that roll off between fomc and midterms that likely provide a good lift through December
Anyways good luck to the reflexive tech longers. Energy is gonna fuck you.
Proud owner of half my portfolio in Chevron at the June 8 top $181. It’s finally coming back to save me.
Traeger up 15% today, 40% since I bought. Earnings in 2 weeks probably crash it all back down to earth but there is ridiculous upside potential still. (Also downside just to be clear)
While on this topic, any folks in here teachers or have spouses that are? Interested in thoughts on 403Bs as a supplement to the standard teachers pensions. Are those a no-brainer or is the money best used elsewhere?
FOMO as I still wait on my damn rollover check!
While I agree energy prices are going to be high the rest of this decade from chronic underinvestment, in the short term energy prices all depend on what China does with covid. Currently oil is in check at the moment because China is under consuming with all these perpetual lockdowns.
Now that Xi is basically re-elected what his next moves are are almost as important to me as what the Fed does.
No brainer if the fees aren't too high and the fund options are decent. Extra tax deferred savings like a 401k. 457 is >>>, at least if early retirement is in the plans.
I have no idea what I’m doing but I had some TRCH and here we are
A 403B is just a 401(k) but the company offering it is a nonprofit, right? My wife has a 403B through her hospital…
In general, it all depends on the company that offers it, hers has fees that are a little too high but still decent.
Is there any logic to just putting more in my 401K vs funding her 403b? We are maxing the match on mine of course and I don't think hers offers anything.
Is it then just a pure math problem of which plan has the better options/lower fees?
theres' quite a bit more calculus to it than just china demand
either way, lmao
I mean at the end of the day supply and demand is what drives it, you'll need that to kick a potential squeeze into gear.
Also I'd like to see a chart that goes further back than 2020, of course no one shorted energy during 2020-2022, it was dirt cheap.
There are several things to look at.
1. Always get the match
2. Look at the fees, both general maintenance fees and the ER for each fund.
3. But also consider the unhappy case of divorce or early death. If you die and have all of the retirement funds, I think it is treated a little different for her than if she has her own.
So far seems like tech gonna be the big lagger this cycle.
Going over a budget my fiance and I have about 3500/month to start investing. Definitely not interested in day trading and having to keep up with it all that often. Do you just open a brokerage account and buy as many shares as you can of QQQ and SPY each month?
Pretty much. Which ETFs/funds is up to you/fits your investment style/strategy. Some investments are better suited for tax advantaged accounts, etc.
You’re gonna want to go back a few pages and read up on dollar cost averaging.
Edit: was that in this thread?
Don’t buy these buy VGT and VOO or at worst QQQm instead of QQQ.
I should amend this to include the conclusion of SPR releases post midterms.
I'm assuming this is after any tax advantaged accounts are full. If not, and they are available, do something like this order:
1. 401k up to match
2. Max HSA
3. 401k up to max
4. Backdoor Roth IRA (since I assume you're over the income limit for regular Roth IRA)
5. Mega backdoor Roth through your 401k (if available)
6. 429s or brokerage account
remind me what currency oil is traded in?
It’s a post on the market dynamics, relax
Don’t get your panties in a wad like I’m criticizing the Biden admin.
Naw man no biggie. It's definitely interesting. I just wonder what Saudi is thinking. They gotta have a deal with Russia and or China in their back pocket, right? I don't really understand why they're picking a fight with the US. I guess they think they can pull off some huge realignment or something.
Assuming most here do the backdoor Roth IRA? Reading up on it - if I contribute after-tax funds to a regular IRA, when I rollover I'm not getting taxed on the contributions correct? Just any capital appreciation? And it can be done with any amount of funds?
The WSJ had a good article on the tensions between Biden and MBS yesterday, worth a read.
I'm under the limit so I do normal contributions, but yes that is how it's supposed to work. Just make sure you don't have a current traditional IRA.
I do have a current rollover traditional IRA from a past employer 401k, do I need to roll that one over first?
iirc yes and pay taxes on that
Like Lyrtch said or roll it into a current 401k.
XLE and chill?
Think I got out of META around $160 after it already lost half its value. Shit might be under $100 tomorrow.
So, back to Obama Administration-level prices.
We are not in one at the moment correct, but this GDP print shows you we are heading towards one.
we've been in once since 2008 wake up
"uses Elliot waves" got me.
Same. used to think those were some secret keys to the universe..
lol I’m no perma bear, if you peek under the hood of this print though
Exports were a primary driver of this print, the US runs persistent trade deficits, if exports were high that means import demand was weak which means domestic consumption is falling.
DOW is up bigly, while the S&P is flat.