My dad, who is a pretty astute investor, has been selling a lot of stuff and raising cash. He is *very* concerned about tariffs
I’m going to stay in the market for about 6 months to a year and ride this stupid enthusiasm wave then go to cash and possibly place some puts
He’s going to fuck the supply chain up again if he goes through with what he says he wants to do. He’s not going to have Covid to blame this time
I’m going to keep maxing my 401k and putting a % of my take home into swppx as always. Not sure about individual stonks that I own. Going to do more research over the weekend. I have a decent sized position in snowflake that I could sell for a tax loss so I’m almost certainly going to sell that
Met with a guy through work last week, he’s some kind of upper management/leadership for a firm that provides financing to PE Firms. He was saying right now that is a major concern for their group, depending on how aggressive they are with that (and deporting labor). Not to turn it into a political thread but I did have to laugh when this Trumper I work with was trying to drive the conversation to the election results by asking him how the election could impact their firm. When the guy was less than thrilled about what those 2 things could do, the Trumper just gave a defeated “oh…well hopefully they use common sense”….which boy do I have news for him.
Market has been so hot im like 90/10 so my new investments are just gonna be bonds/t-bills anyways but I’m definitely worried about the republicans shutting down the government and/or defaulting on our debt. Not really sure wtf we are supposed to do about it though.
Curious on some thoughts on my portfolio. Back ground is I invested heavily in real estate up until this year, sold off a couple properties and moved all those proceeds into a brokerage account. I'm very high risk tolerant and don't need this money for 10+ years. My current make up is 95% VTI & VOO, and 5% VTIAX. Feel like with current conditions and maybe just in general I should reallocate to some more secure options. I do a weekly deposit into the account, should I start buying BND with that? I know bogleheads recommends a 20% allocation of that. I hate to miss out on these sweet sweet returns but also don't want to get fucked down the road. Thoughts?
Ten plus year time line is in let it rip territory or close to it imo 10 percent bnd wouldn't be bad either though. Kind of matters if it's really closer to 10 or more like 15
I wasn't going to get into it but if you have a big enough pile of money over a long enough timeline and are confident you can hold it makes way more sense to go full stocks My parents are retired and like 90/10 still for example. They also know on the 1 percent bad scenario they have support
Good info. There is a chance that I will never need this money, or maybe like a 1% draw down rate, it really is much more for back up security. With what you guys are saying I'll probably just keep the course with just VTI & VOO.
If you are in an accumulation phase 100% stocks is the way to go. Wish I knew this five years ago. Once you move from accumulation to spending and start running safe withdrawal rate calculations you’ll see 85/15ish survives a fair amount more than 100/0. Caveat here is your SWR is like the typical 3.5-4.5%. If you have a massive nest egg then by all means stay at 100/0.
why again is my Roth IRA all in a target retirement fund that has 16.1% bonds? I'm the sucker? VTIVX Target Retirement 2045 Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares 51.30% Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Investor Shares 32.60% Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund 11.20% Vanguard Total International Bond II Index Fund 4.90%
the target date retirement funds are mostly all scams as well. my advice is to change your allocation to a 100% s&p 500 tracker
I’m in just a target fund in a 401k. Does it make sense to keep some money there and going forward throw it at the s&p? Or should I move everything into that ?
many of us are on 30yr or even higher time horizons. America ain't exactly a lock to be the big dog over that time frame.
Historically, international has been good to have overall to increase total return and reduce volatility. It obviously has underperformed for a while now, but that’s recency bias and chasing recent results. Not having international is fine. Having some international exposure is also fine. No one really knows what that looks like 20 years from now. International has outperformed US for long segments in the last 50 years. It’ll probably happen again. I’m sticking with 20% international vs 80% US personally. I do understand 100% US as well. The important part is have a plan and stick to it. Don’t chase recent trends.
Lutnick supposedly favored for treasury now THAT might get me to hedge way more and get my parents IRA into a bigger bond spread
uber tariff guy, thinks vaccines cause autism, the usual just makes me raise the % chance we get aggressive tariffs broadly
If I remember right, he became a vaccine skeptic after one long convo with rfk so I guess he moves with the last charming doofus who spoke with him. Great!
could have been even better, an era of productivity and growth but we put the fucking circus in charge at the inflection point
No big disagreement allocation-wise but if kinghill has taxable accounts they would generally be a preferable place for the foreign holdings from a tax perspective. Holding them in a tax-advantaged account means you pay foreign tax without a chance to claim a credit for it on your US tax return.
I'm pretty noob, I just focus on my 401k and Roth atm, but something I was thinking about. Is it too late for BlueSky stock or does the future look decent? I know it's currently OTC, but with how many users they've added since the election and word of mouth. I wonder if it'll do anything. What say you pros?
most likely would need to be an accredited investor and have a connection with some firm that gets access to the offer. might be other ways but not sure. I saw an opportunity come through in September to get in at $112/share but came with a 2% management fee and 20% carry along with a min investment of $25k and that might not be enough to actually get you in. 20% return in two months isn’t too bad though.