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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Krieger, Apr 24, 2016.
Wait I blanked on him fighting Cowboy this year.
and he was trying to fight Poirier next month but doesn't look like it's an option now.
UK was locked down for a while right? I can understand turning down some of those fights if you aren't able to be in a gym and close to a title shot. Now he gets offered a fight against Khazmat which is a huge lose lose for him
Maybe he was acting like a bitch but feel like you get should get some grace considering half the world has been locked down.
He wanted to fight during those times. I think it had to do with him wanting to pick his fights and let's be honest, he's not even close to that level at this point.
He won 8 fights in a row and was scheduled to fight Woodley. Kamara and Burns are waiting for each other and then you have the MAGA hatred fight(although I think if Edwards wanted it he should have that fight over Masvidal) but he's stuck with an offer for the new hot thing that's unranked?
It's scary how many dogs I like this week as I work through things.
I thought he turned down Colby? Maybe I read it wrong.
And no argument from me on fighting the new guy. I wouldn't sign up for that mother fucker either.
He's just a lose-lose matchup in general. It's been brought up my MMA media several times. While he is good he doesn't have name cache with fans and fights a boring style that isn't conducive for exciting matchups.
Rough weight cut for Khabib
Yea that looked brutal
He didn’t even make weight. The ref didn’t let the scale stop.
He's gonna be 180 in a couple of hours
Based on the video?
Yeah someone else posted one that was centered in on the scale that made it obvious.
Why isn't Rogan calling the fight tomorrow?
He doesn't travel out of the country anymore iirc
Well that's bullshit.
weird. Any reason why?
I love Amick and DC though
Rogan, Anik and DC is the goat triumvirate.
Rogan hasn’t done international events in years.
I'm pretty sure he got that put in for his newest contract. He likes to fly in on Friday, do a stand-up show on Friday, do the UFC event on Saturday, and fly back
Pretty sure he was talking about walking away from the UFC due to the time commitment and time away from his family. He makes more doing his podcast than the UFC too.
Since his latest contract he just does domestic shows.
Been waiting on this one for a long time:
Yakovlev v Alvarez. The line has swung massively in the Russian Gangster Rapper's direction (check out his Youtube videos, it's beyond cringey), and there's belief that Alvarez is a one trick pony, just a submission specialist (15 of his 17 wins have been by sub). He also came in 3.5 pounds heavy. Yakovlev is sneaky man. It's not well known that he went the distance with Usman, and he's a much better wrestler than Alvarez. I'm always worried about the neck, Alvarez goes after guillotines. But I'll follow the line movement (2nd highest on the card), and take a stab at Yakovlev. Probably by decision which pays +375.
Maverick v Jojua. I'm always suspicious of an unknown woman being such a big favorite, so I won't be betting this. But I'll just roll along with Maverick, who has the biggest line movement on the card. Somebody knows something (she's fighting a Russian, also always suspect), so I would guess Maverick wins inside the distance here, which unfortunately only pays -115. Again, not a fight I care about nor will I bet. It'll probably be on around the same time Gameday's making their picks.
Alvey v Jung. I like Jung a lot here. He has the best odds of a first round finish of anybody on the card, 2nd in significant strikes per minute (fuck that stat btw, they better come up with a fix for DraftKings purposes), and Alvey is pretty washed at this point. He's lost his last 4, getting knocked out in 2 of them. Jung has won 12 in a row, with 11 of those ITD. I'll take a nibble at Jung for a 1st round ko (+190), but the smart play is probably Jung ITD at -105.
Kenney vs Wood. Expect high volume in this one. Kenney is 7th, Wood is 3rd in SS per minute (on this card). Both are capable of takedowns, but Wood has the #1 takedown defense on this card. If you haven't figured out by this point, I'm always looking for a way to take a dog. Wood's only loss in his last 10 fights was a late 3rd round finish to John Dodson, and you have to think Kenney's legs haven't recovered from the beating they took from Alateng in a 3 round decision win just 3 weeks ago. I think Wood controls this fight on the ground and wins by decision. Wood straight up pays +151, if you want to get tricky and go for the decision, that pays +332.
Rakhmonov v Cowboy Oliveira. Oliveira also missed weight, woke up ill Thursday morning and they stopped his cut short. Even before that, Rakhmonov was one of my favorite picks on this card. The line has swung 68 points his way, he's undefeated (12-0), with a finishing rate of 100% ( 7 of those in the 1st round). The one thing that has me hesitant going for the +280 for Rakhmonov ITD is that that's the 12th highest ITD odds on this card. Vegas thinks it goes to the decision, so there's no reason to get greedy and chase that prop. He went from a +155 dog to a -113 favorite, so probably just stick with that and bet all these winnings on Gaethje at +439 itd to end the night.
Tuivasa vs Struve. Tuivasa came into the UFC with all the hype in the world. Marketable as fuck with those stupid shooeys and knockout power. A 3 fight losing streak got him to change camps and take things a little more seriously. This smells like a setup fight by the UFC to get this kid back on track. Struve has a terrible chin (8 of his 12 losses have come by knockout), and the visual of Tuivasa knocking out a legitimate 7 footer on a card with all the eyeballs in the world on it makes sense to me. Tuiavasa by KO, probably 1st round (+400). He started his career with 8 first round KOs, so he has the mentality to get it done quickly.
Ankalaev v Cutelaba. I'm gonna have to stay away from this fight. Heart says Cutelaba head says Ankalaev. Cutelaba was really weird at the face offs this morning, wouldn't even face him. He's usually a guy that lives for faceoffs (painted himself like the Hulk, screamed in Rountree's face, etc). I always have a soft spot for guys like Cutelaba that just go for it from the opening bell. But people are high on Ankalaev, and I'm not sure he's shown enough yet to be given that kind of respect. He has 5 UFC fights, lost to Paul Craig, won a decision vs Klidson Abreu, and KO'd Prachnio and Lungiambula. I follow this shit pretty closely and I don't know who those two are. I'm hesitant to pick it, but I'm gonna go with my heart here and take Cutelaba ITD, that pays +305. I respect the shit out of Cody Saftic and he loves Ankalaev here, so probably better spots on this card for you attack than this fight.
Not much to say about Murphy vs Shakirova. Shakirova is a late replament for Cavillo (I think), Murphy's a big favorite, and likely to get the decision win here (-115)
Malkoun v Hawes. Malkoun is only on this card because he's sparring partners with Whitaker. He's 4-0 but not impressive at all. Hawes is built like a damn linebacker, just a specimen. He has a 100% finishing rate, and the highest ITD odds on the card. The only bet worth playing here is Hawes by 1st round KO, which he's done in his last 4 fights. Likely another setup fight to get some eyeballs on him in his UFC debut (DWCS guy). 1st round KO by Hawes pays +225.
Volkov v Harris scares me. Harris is so easy to root for because of his tragic story, but Volkov is quite the veteran and will be tough to put away. Harris had a terrific camp and I'm hearing we'll see the best version of him tomorrow. I'm getting nervous with how many dogs I like, so I'll probably stay away from this. Gun to my head though, I'll take Harris straight up at +150. There has been some line movement his way (was +175), so I'm not alone in these thoughts.
Cannonier v Whittaker. Did the Romero and Adesanya fights take something out of Whitaker? That's usually the case when somebody goes through wars with such strikers like he did with Romero. I'm not sure he gets knocked out so quickly v Adesanya if the Romero fights never happen. But they did, and so did the Adesanya fight. Once that chin gets cracked, you're susceptible to power punchers. Which is exactly what Cannonier is. He's -115, but you have to think the fight doesn't make it 3 rounds. Since moving to middleweight 3 fights ago, he has 2 2nd round KOs, and a stoppage vs Silva in the 1st round. I'd probably stick with Cannonier just winning at -115, because we've already taken so many props to this point, but if you wanted a little more, Cannonier ITD makes sense at +165.
And finally. I've been waiting three years for this fight. I've said for three years Gaethje's wrestling background would prove to be the kryptonite for Khabib's reign. I don't know how many of you watch Embedded, but Khabib has had a strange look on his face all week. Is it losing his Dad? Is he legit worried about the skillset of Gaethje? He really doesn't look confident. And that was before he stepped on the scales depleted this morning. Gaethje is the fucking man. Trevor Whitman is maybe the best coach in the game. I think they focus on the low calf kick, wait for Khabib to reach for the leg, and go for the knockout blow. My mind keeps going back to Aldo v Connor. I don't think it happens in 12 seconds, but I think it could be very quick. Gaethje and Whitman aren't trying to go 25 minutes with Khabib's relentless ground game. They're coming for the title, and I think Khabib's chin is questionable, rewind back to the Michael Johnson fight. He got cracked. It feels like a changing of the guard, and I don't see Khabib doing much after this fight outside of a GPP fight at like 170 or something. Flash knockout in the 1st round by my dude Justin Gaethje to end the night perfectly with a +1000 hit. Could this be fan fiction? Absolutely, I'm a Gaethje fanboy. But Cody Saftic is also on board. Either way, we have a loaded card from top to bottom with many expected to finish ITD. Should be an amazing afternoon. Good luck everybody.
Tbh Gaethje seems like he’s just happy to be there. He’s got his whole family, talking about retiring his parents, etc. Idk.
I'm glad that's what you got out of it.
Dude won't even accept the interim belt. I don't think he's "just happy to be there" at all.
Come on man, that was funny. Your fanboy is getting the best of you. It's ok, it happens to all of us.
Have you watched? He's not himself. It's probably losing his Dad. But who knows.
Your fanboy is making you see things that aren't there again.
Izzy was scared. Khabib doesn't look confident.
Not wanting the interim belt is just being smart IMO. He's not the real champ until he beats Khabib.
And ftr I hope he wins
It's pretty easy to cherry pick when I put all of my picks out there and don't mind taking chances on dogs. Start posting your picks before every fight.
No need to get defensive. That's not a "Gotcha!" and it has nothing to do with getting the pick wrong. You watch a short clip and then see what you want to see to back up what you want to happen. You're admittedly a Gaethje fanboy. That's fine. You want him to win. Maybe he will. But it won't be bc Khabib wasn't confident. If you stuck to Gathje winning and why you think he will and left out the fantasy stuff you get from watching a clip, I wouldn't have said anything.
Like this would have been perfect:
And finally. I've been waiting three years for this fight. I've said for three years Gaethje's wrestling background would prove to be the kryptonite for Khabib's reign. And that was before he stepped on the scales depleted this morning. Gaethje is the fucking man. Trevor Whitman is maybe the best coach in the game. I think they focus on the low calf kick, wait for Khabib to reach for the leg, and go for the knockout blow. My mind keeps going back to Aldo v Connor. I don't think it happens in 12 seconds, but I think it could be very quick. Gaethje and Whitman aren't trying to go 25 minutes with Khabib's relentless ground game. They're coming for the title, and I think Khabib's chin is questionable, rewind back to the Michael Johnson fight. He got cracked. It feels like a changing of the guard, and I don't see Khabib doing much after this fight outside of a GPP fight at like 170 or something. Flash knockout in the 1st round by my dude Justin Gaethje to end the night perfectly with a +1000 hit. Could this be fan fiction? Absolutely, I'm a Gaethje fanboy. But Cody Saftic is also on board. Either way, we have a loaded card from top to bottom with many expected to finish ITD. Should be an amazing afternoon. Good luck everybody.
You think Gaethje wins and here's why. That's enough. Trying to get into their head by watching a video is comical though.
If we are being honest here, I never watch embedded. The producers’ goal is to make compelling television, not provide actionable information. No problem watching for entertainment though.
Khabib wrestles Dagestani wrestlers on a daily basis. Maybe Gaethje can give him more of a challenge but kryptonite is the wrong world lol
If Leon dominates him and Dana loses the next hype train it’s gonna be hilarious. Big gamble here for the UFC.
As in being the best in the division to stuff Khabib's takedowns and keep the fight on the feet.
I think Khabib is probably the goat MMA wrestler...
But, lets objectively look at Khabib’s last several opponents with regard to wrestling...
Dustin Poirier, not a wrestler, Khabib 7/8 on takedowns. 8:52 ground control in a 12:06 fight.
Connor McGregor, not a wrestler, Khabib 3/7 takedowns, 12:15 ground control in an 18:03 fight.
**Al Iaquinta, Junior College Wrestler, 6/15 Takedowns, 10:33 ground control in 25:00 fight.
Edson Barboza, not a wrestler. 4/13 takedowns, 10:32 ground control in 15:00 Minute fight
** Michael Johnson, Juco Wrestler, 2/6 takedowns, 8:44 ground control in 12:31
Darrell Horcher, participated in wrestling in high school, 2/3 takedowns, 5:32 ground control in 8:38
Rafael Dos Anjos, not a werestler, BJJ Black belt, 6/12 in takedowns, 9:48 control in 15:00.
** Pat Healy, 7th in Oregon High school wrestling, D2 Wrestler at SIU-Edwardsville, 5/11 takedowns 6:31 control in 15:00.
All that to say, there is probably some recency bias regarding Khabib being unstoppable in takedowns. We remember him suffocating two non wrestlers and think thats all he has ever done.
Interesting that Khabib's worst moments came against guys with some wrestling background + an advantage in striking.
Gaethje's wrestling pedigree is head and shoulders above anyone Khabib has faced in the octagon. That should count for something. Gaethje is undoubtedly the better stand up fighter.
This isn't me saying Gaethje is a lock, just pointing out that we probably shouldn't be oversimplifying all of Khabib's past results as "dominant wrestling."
Lando Donovan isn't pulling shit out of his ass when he says Gaethje's fighter makeup is the best suited to beat Khabib that we've seen.
I'm confused by this entire post. You start by saying he's the GOAT wrestler. You then say his opponents are trash wrestlers so his wrestling looks better than it really is. You then cap it by using quotes around dominant wrestling, suggesting it wasn't that, just looked that way bc of his opponents.
If that's not what you mean, please clarify.
What I'm getting at is that its easy to remember all of Khabib's past fights as dominant ground and pound from the starting bell until the sub/tko was called. In 2/3 fights versus low level college wrestlers his ground control stats are outliers when looking at the rest of his career. I had already typed a lot so was getting lazy.
I'm definitely not trying to say he isn't good, nothing of the sort. In the 8 fights i listed Khabib is averaging over 50% of the total fight time in a position of ground control.
When I say goat MMA wrestler, its because wrestling is clearly his defining attribute and its his path to victory every time he gets in the octagon. Its worked every time.
And idk why I have to clarify this, he can be the goat mma wrestler without fighting elite mma wrestlers...
It was just odd to go from saying he's the GOAT wrestler to saying we shouldn't say he's a "dominant wrestler" all in one post. I'm still confused but not trying to derail the thread with it.
I never said we shouldn't say he's a dominant wrestler? Idk why that would be a thing.
My quotes weren't me saying dominant wrestler sarcastically. I didn't expect anything else about that post to lead anyone believe that is what I meant, because yeah, that wouldn't make sense. My bad if it was confusing.
It was me abbreviating a more lengthy description which has nuance. I think most people's understanding of Khabib skips the nuance which could be a big oversight when capping this fight.
That doesn't mean he isn't a dominant wrestler.
We haven't seen him versus a wrestler with Gaethje's pedigree. We haven't seen him versus as well rounded a fighter as Gaethje. Again I don't think Gaethje is a lock. I do think the current odds are out of whack and there will be more Gaethje money coming in. Current odds have Gaethje with a worse chance to win than Poirier and Conor. In my opinion that is a market inefficiency.
Man I hope Walt Harris gets a win tomorrow. What happened to his daughter was so terrible. He almost finished Overeem in the first round in his last fight
Finished going over the full card... here are my thoughts for those that care...
-Alvarez is supposed to win this, missed weight, didn't really seem to care. More about continuing his impressive finishing streak. Yakolev is ajourneyman who hasn't been all that great in UFC. Maybe put him in a parlay, will use in DK, minimal Yak exposure for me.
-Jojua vs Maverick figures to be a grappling match, both fighters strong suit. Neither of these girls have faced all that great competition leading up to this fight. Jojua has at least been in the octagon, one win there via sub, other fight got TKO'd r3 by an unimpressive fighter. Maverick shouldn't be a threat to Ko her though considering she hasn't ever pulled that off vs bad competition. Both girls are young, jojua 25, Maverick 23. Value seems to be there on jojua +300 or better, but Idk if its worth taking in a fight wit so many unknowns.
-Jung vs Alvey. Some money has come in on Alvey, idk if its because name recognition or because people think he will be fighting to save his career. I can't take him with a straight face, just nothing inspires me to have faith in him at this stage in his career. Jung has 10ko/2sub in 13 wins. This is his chance to prove himself considering Alvey will be the biggest name hes faced (thats saying something). Jung is a Parlay piece, maybe dabble on ITD, and a DK play I want.
-Oliviera vs Rakhmonov. Oliviera missed weight, has been in the ufc for what feels like forever, has some good wins and bad losses. This fight is reminiscent of Gamrot last week, M-1 star making ufc debut, but the difference is Guram was game as hell and had a chip on his shoulder, doubt we see that type of attitude and will from Oliviera. Rakh has finished all his fights... went from dog to favorite, in general in betting that is a good trend to get behind. I like Rakhmodov here, Oliviera is annoying and I wish he'd just got bellator or something. Rakhomodov could be the best value on the DK slate when all is said and done.
-Kenney vs Wood. Kenney fought 3 weeks ago, won a decision where he looked great, biggest surprise was he didnt get the finish. Hes a very popular up and comer. Wood is much more adept at finishing the fight, and some of his important stats slightly edge out Kenney (wood better in TD defense, TD average, Significant strike accuracy, an ss averag/m). That said the numbers are close, could be a result of competition more than anything else. Think the fight is very close, wood +150 seems to have value. ... And i just re-read what Lando Donovan wrote earlier. Swear I'm not plagiarizing, great minds and what not.
-Struve via Taivasa... is this a continuation of Struve vs Nelson/Hunt? Sloppy looking squatty power puncher going to break his jaw? I'm not so sure... Tuivasa is powerful, but I'm not sure about his actual skill level. Say what you want about nelson and hunt, but they were much more technically advanced than the 27 year old Tuivasa. I see this fight going one of two ways. 1.) Tuivasa gets the early TKO and its the struve we all remember from being on the wrong end of highlights. 2.) Struve manages to get to the ground and submits Tuivasa. Fight doesn't go distance -250 seems worth it, put it in a parlay if thats your thing. Struve has seen the final bell in 5 of 41 pro fights... Tuivasa 2/12. If Tuivasa money continues to pour in I may be tempted to take Struve +115ish, he's so much more experienced and has seen the real killers of the division, he has to know protecting his chin is paramount at this point in his career right...
-Ankaelov vs Cutelaba is a weird one. Cutelaba is so fun, but Ankaelov's boxing isnt exactly a bore to watch either. Cutelaba's possum strat backfired in february when they fought, that stoppage was bad. But i'm not necessarily sold on the thought process behind it. Eat a few punches from a great boxer so you can draw him in for the counter? Love the confidence but your head isn't made of stone Ion. So much money pouring in on Ankaelov, its hard to get behind the price even though I'm confident he will win.
-Shakirova/Murphy. UFC newbie vs an old dog in Murphy. Neither have impressive resumes. Murphy's price seems a little high, but without having all that much to look at in Shakirova's past its hard to have much of an opinion here.
-Hawes vs Malkoun. I think its Hawes and I think its a KO. Malkoun is the bigger guy, but with only 4 pro fights in regional competition its hard to think he will find the upset vs a guy the UFC wants to build up due to his style. This one shouldn't go the distance, and its probably over via Hawes TKO.
-Volkov versus Harris. Volkov is super skilled, his most recent losses are to Blaydes who we all know is on the come up, and Derrick Lewis in a fight that Volkov let slip away with 11 seconds left in the 3rd round round. Hes won his other 5 UFC fight vs solid competition. Harris is a guy thats easy to root for, but he is 37, isn't as powerful or skilled as Blaydes, and he isn't the Black Beast. He needs to end it early to have a shot. Don't really see Volkov being complacent and allowing a straighforward path to Harris's only shot at victory. -182 is a good parlay piece or side if you can tolerate the juice.
-Whittaker vs Cannonier. I've made my thoughts known. Its tough for me to favor a guy with three fights at 185. Sure he has looked good, but it was vs a mediocre David Branch, the ghost of Anderson Silva, and Jake Hermanson which was by far his best win. Whittaker's 185 resume is obviously super impressive, the only relevant blemish is vs izzy, who as we all know is possibly the best p4p fighter in ufc right now. You can argue that the wars with Romero changed whittaker forever, but Idk if we can say that based on a ko from Adesanya and a decision win over Till. Adesanya wins with precision over power, thats not Cannonier(this is also why Izzy is eager to fight Cannonier). I was big on whittaker vs till and my only worry was getting fucked on the scorecard in a fight Whittaker clearly won. People will also hype up the fact cannonier came down from 205... Guys, Cannonier didn't come down because he was crushing the division, it was because he couldn't hack it. I took Bobby Knuckles -102.
Gaethje vs. Khabib. You likely saw my dissertation on Khabib's wrestling. The guy is the best MMA grappler we've seen. Gaethje presents unique challenges. He should not be a bigger dog than Conor or Poirier was. I took a little of Gaethje +272. Will not be surprised if Khabib does what he has always done, maul his opponent until the ref stops it, I just don't think thats a given considering Gaethje's wrestling experience, and I think Gaethje can punish Khabib for getting too eager to get the takedown in ways guys without the wrestling base could.