*** Official MMA Thread II ***

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Krieger, Apr 24, 2016.

  1. Butthead

    Butthead narmas, narmas

    He was out before he hit the ground
     
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  2. Cornfed Buffalo

    Cornfed Buffalo What's a Narduzzi?
    Donor
    Colorado Buffaloes

  3. SuperCam

    SuperCam Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Bodies are hitting the floor tonight
     
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  4. Jake Scott

    Jake Scott Well-Known Member
    Staff Donor
    Jacksonville Jaguars

    It was.
     
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  5. SuperCam

    SuperCam Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves



    Damn. That was a huge win and Arman may be sitting behind Charles, Justin, and Conor/Chandler before he gets a shot at Islam. I think Dustin fights Fizeiv and the winner of that fight eventually has to fight Arman to get another title shot
     
  6. Jake Scott

    Jake Scott Well-Known Member
    Staff Donor
    Jacksonville Jaguars

  7. Jake Scott

    Jake Scott Well-Known Member
    Staff Donor
    Jacksonville Jaguars

  8. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta BravesNew Orleans PelicansDallas CowboysBirmingham Legion

  9. SuperCam

    SuperCam Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Whoever booked the co main wants to see smith die?
     
  10. zachary

    zachary <3
    Donor
    UTSA Roadrunners

    while i agree i also think there is a chance smith gets a submission.
     
    SuperCam likes this.
  11. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    My picks for tonight:

    Song by decision
    Rountree by KO
    Haqparast by decision
    Elliott by decision
    Park/Muniz DGD
    Kenan ITD
    H Park ITD
    Garcia by KO
    Santos by sub
    Taira by sub
    Alencar by sub
     
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  12. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    I think people are not realizing just how bad of a chin Shannon Ross has. Park is one of the better -600 values I’ve ever seen.
     
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  13. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    3 UFC fights, head knocked off in the first round every fight.

    :booger:
     
    zachary and like this.
  14. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Fwiw I see

    Rayanne Amanda prop Dec
    taira prob sub
    Egger good dog bet
    Costa probably Dec
    Park KO
    Jousset sub
    Iron turtle Park decision
    Elliot
    Nasrat and Mullarkey both suck I don’t want to pick
    Rountree itd
    Yadong
     
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  15. zachary

    zachary <3
    Donor
    UTSA Roadrunners

    if costa wins i am going to have a good night
     
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  16. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Off to a hot start with the old damage doesn’t matter decision
     
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  17. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    Yeah I stole that one from you for sure. Won the 2nd round, 3rd was dicey.
     
  18. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    It was such a shitty fight both deserved to lose
     
  19. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    Hahaha fair.
     
  20. zachary

    zachary <3
    Donor
    UTSA Roadrunners

    nice!
     
    SuperCam likes this.
  21. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
    Chicago CubsChicago BullsChicago BearsChicago BlackhawksIllinois Fightin' IlliniLiverpool

    That was so brutal
     
  22. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    Garcia just hit a 4 leg parlay for me to start the night. Was wayyyy overexposed on DK. And the 11 fight parlay is still intact. Let’s goooooooo
     
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  23. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    55% of my lineups had Garcia at 7.2k. First 4 fights was a 12/1 parlay. Let’s have a night.
     
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  24. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Needed that KO. Oddly enough it was body shot
     
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  25. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    That cash out button on mybookie is turning into Deal or no Deal.
     
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  26. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    I angrily put in Haqparast via KO and Keith Peterson tried his hardest to keep it from coming home
     
  27. Eric The Viking

    Eric The Viking Nitro, the All Knowing
    Donor TMB OG

    Mularkey was not even close to being in that one
     
    likes this.
  28. SuperCam

    SuperCam Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    ever since strickland won the belt, im fully expecting Colby to beat Leon
     
  29. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Colby is so incredibly overrated. Basically his only equal in the all sizzle no steak realm is Jorge Masvidal. The other UFC PR darlings all had at least a few minutes of being elite.
     
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  30. SuperCam

    SuperCam Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Ref saved some CTE
     
    and Cornfed Buffalo like this.
  31. SuperCam

    SuperCam Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Sounds like Ian Garry might be out this weekend
     
  32. COVIDiskilingme79

    COVIDiskilingme79 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Florida GatorsChicago Cubs

    [​IMG]

    Fuck that loser
     
    Cornfed Buffalo likes this.
  33. SuperCam

    SuperCam Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Yeah but it’s a shame we lost the fight if he’s actually out. Luque would be his toughest opponent so far
     
  34. snowfx2

    snowfx2 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Los Angeles KingsLos Angeles LakersUCLA BruinsLos Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Rams

    His cardio is outrageously good, arguably the best ever P4P cardio from a UFC fighter. However if a fighter can at least not get overwhelmed by it like Usman, then Colby is very beatable. Don't think Colby could even KO a 125er with his pillow hands.
     
  35. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    "arguably best p4p cardio ever" sounds like something his agent would say
     
    Roy likes this.
  36. SuperCam

    SuperCam Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    You don’t want to end up like Izzy and just backing up the whole time, and letting him walk you down, but that’s easier said than done
     
  37. snowfx2

    snowfx2 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Los Angeles KingsLos Angeles LakersUCLA BruinsLos Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Rams

    Uh, you don't think Colby has some of the best cardio the sport has ever seen? Especially for a WW.
     
  38. —

    Well-Known Member
    Donor

    His cardio is great. But that’s usually not what you want to lead with when talking about mma talent.
     
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  39. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    Go out of your way to watch the interaction between Ferguson and Colby last night. The funniest thing I've ever seen at a presser. They started off talking shit and ended up bonding by the end of their "fight". Amazing.
     
  40. Eric The Viking

    Eric The Viking Nitro, the All Knowing
    Donor TMB OG

     
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  41. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    How to read this: everything is based off percentages, then they are ranked in that category with 1 being the best, 24 being the worst. Finish rate is their finish rate of all of their fights, not just wins. Decision rate is a combination of their decision wins and losses, to help us gauge how likely that person's fights go to decision. Finished is the percentage of time that person has been finished in all of their fights. Then I rank everybody against the rest of their card to make it easy to read.

    upload_2023-12-15_13-31-50.png
     
  42. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    Very excited about this card. It's loaded from top to bottom. Hell, the prelim card could easily be a main card for a Fight Night. I'm wayyyy ahead of schedule for working on my bets, so I'll have those posted in plenty of time for everybody to ride tomorrow.
     
  43. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta BravesNew Orleans PelicansDallas CowboysBirmingham Legion

  44. zachary

    zachary <3
    Donor
    UTSA Roadrunners

    what cities would you guys say provide the best atmosphere in america?
     
  45. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta BravesNew Orleans PelicansDallas CowboysBirmingham Legion

  46. zachary

    zachary <3
    Donor
    UTSA Roadrunners



    ufc champion folks. cool sport
     
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  47. spagett

    spagett Got ya, spooked ya
    Donor

    I feel bad for the decent humans in UFC

    Surely there are some
     
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  48. COVIDiskilingme79

    COVIDiskilingme79 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Florida GatorsChicago Cubs

    I'm not so sure
     
  49. Lando Donovan

    Lando Donovan Well-Known Member

    Alright, let's jump right into this, I have NFL bets to make:
    • Martin Buday v Shamil Gaziev. Line has moved in favor of Gaziev. It's heavyweight UFC so taking a side on two relative unknowns is risky. But Buday's competition in the UFC has been mediocre (Parisian, Collier, Brzeski, Barnett), finishing only one of those jabronis. Gaziev has the best first round finish rate of anybody on the card, with only 3 of his 11 fights finding the 2nd round. I'll take Gaziev ITD for sure, might go nuts and bet on him to find the finish inside Round 1.
    • Andre Fili v Lucas Almeida. Again, I think I'll favor the slight dog who is relatively unknown. Fili is 2-3-1 since 2019, with the two wins being split decisions. Nothing too impressive, I could see him being cut with a loss tonight. Almeida is 14-2, with all 14 wins by finish, and only 3 of those going past the second round. Guy is a finisher, 3rd best finish rate on the card. Fili has one finish since 2015. I like Almeida ITD here, he'll be looking to get back on track after getting caught in an arm triangle vs Sabbatini his last time out.
    • Cody Durden v Tagir Ulanbekov. Durden is on a 4 fight win streak, with an impressive decision win as a dog vs Jake Hadley his last time out. #1 on the card in takedowns per minute, and I would expect that to be his gameplan here. In his last 3 fights, he had 4 takedowns vs Hadley, ELEVEN vs Charles Johnson, 4 vs Carlos Mota. Ulanbekov was taken down 3 times by Tim Elliott, 4 times by Bruno Silva. So even though it's scary for your path to victory to be taking down a Dagestani, I'm not sure Tagir is your typical Khabib type fighter. Durden's two losses in the UFC did come from 1st round subs, so tread lightly. The official pick will be Cody Durden by decision, but I won't be very exposed here.
    • Casey O'Neill v Ariane Lipski. My night will probably depend on how this fight goes. I love King Casey here. She was undefeated before she lost a decision to Jennifer Maia last time out. Before that was a sketchy split decision over shitty Modafferi. Casey is 4th in points per dollar, 2nd in fantasy points per win, so I'll be looking to roster her quite a bit on DraftKings. 1st on the card in significant strikes per minute. Lipski is low output (14th in sig strikes per minute, 17th in takedowns per minute). So I think Casey will be comfortable letting her hands go without fear of being taken down. I expect her to outstrike her by a wide margin, and perhaps overwhelming her maybe in the 2nd round. Lipski's lost 3 of her last 6 fights by knockout, so not sure she has that dog in her, and will likely want out of there when O'Neill puts the volume on her. O'Neill is the pick, and I feel like it's a coin flip if it's by KO or decision. Probably just a parlay piece and definitely a nice roster piece on DraftKings.
    • Cody Garbrandt v Brian Kelleher. I hate this fight. I hate Cody. I hate his room temperature IQ. Probably the dumbest person I've ever heard speak. Garbrandt being priced at $9k on DK is outrageous. He's 2-5 his last 7 fights. He's low output being 21st on the card in sig strikes/min. So he's always just loading up looking for the kill shot. The thing Kelleher backers have going for them is that's NOT the way you get him out of there. He's only been knocked out once in 38 fights. He's been subbed 8 times but Cody has never subbed anybody. I think we plug our nose and take Kelleher here, but full disclosure my hatred for Cody does play a part in that pick. If Kelleher does win, he'll be necessary on your roster at such a low salary.
    • Irene Aldana v Karol Rosa. Not much interest in this fight. Can't get that shitty performance Aldana had vs Nunes out of my head. Just stood there guarding her face for five straight rounds. Way to go for it dumbass. You work your entire life for that moment and completely choke. At least go out on your sword. How does she react after seeing how bad that was on tape? I have no idea. She's a terrible DK play, 20th in pts/$, 18th in fantasy points/win. I may have a sprinkle of Rosa if I need salary relief, but I won't have too much invested in her.
    • Alonzo Menifield v Dustin Jacoby. I think this line is way off. Can Jacoby win? Of course. But he shouldn't be that big of a favorite. I always find myself backing Menifield, and I definitely will here as a juicy dog play. He's a finisher, 4th best finish rate on the card. Very risky pick here, Jacoby is more than capable. But the official pick will be Menifield by knockout. Guy has the death touch and will pay off nicely if he comes through.
    • Bryce Mitchell v Josh Emmett. Yesterday on the weigh in show, DC mentioned Emmett already talking about hanging it up soon. If you're betting that guy, that's not encouraging. Mitchell is taking this on 10 days notice so that's also spicy. I would expect Mitchell to play it safe and try to find the take down early and often. Mitchell has eclipsed 108 points 3 times in his UFC career, but the other 4 wins were 81, 88, 50, and 66. I'll take Mitchell by decision, but I don't love it. Doubt I have much of him on DK. I would expect him to be highly owned because casuals just look at takedown rate and fill their rosters with those types. But when you dig into it a bit more he feels more like fool's gold.
    • Paddy Pimblett v Tony Ferguson. It's sad to say, but I think Tony is washed. 6 straight losses. Yeah those first 4 were killers, but he looked so bad vs Nate and Bobby Green. Paddy checks every box on my spreadsheet above, notice all the green. He looks to be in incredible shape after taking a year off. This is a set up fight by the UFC. They need him to roll, so they gave him a washed up name to get the bandwagon back behind him. Paddy by 1st round sub if you're feeling lucky. Paddy ITD is the play. Also, he's terrible in points per dollar so I like him a lot as a pivot off of a very popular Bryce Mitchell if you're into game theory. I don't expect him to be rostered a lot at that price point of $9.4k.
    • Rakhmonov v Wonderboy. $9.7k is a crazy price. I don't have much to say here, I think Rakhmonov wins for sure. Wonderboy has only been stopped once his entire career, and that was the famous SuperMan punch by Pettis. Rakhmonov has finished all 17 of his wins, so something has to give here. I expect Rakhmonov to find the back and get the sub. Wonderboy has been taken down 12 times his past 3 fights, and that's not a position you want to be in vs this guy. It'll be an interesting styles clash for sure, but the official pick is Shavkat by sub.
    • Royval v Pantoja. I've been a Pantoja fan since his Ultimate Fighter days. Maybe the best season ever, the entire weight division came from that show. Royval is a fast finisher, and I expect that to be his path to victory here. However, Pantoja has never been finished and had excellent cardio v Moreno in the championship rounds last fight. I won't ramble on too long here, but I think Pantoja takes him to deep waters and Royval will be there for the taking in the later rounds. Pantoja by 4th round sub is the spicy play, Pantoja by decision is the more likely scenario and the official pick.
    • Colby v Leon. I enjoy Colby's schtick, wish he wouldn't have said that thing about Leon's dad. Too far. With that said, I think Colby cruises to victory. Leon is a low output guy and doesn't have a ton of power. He was taken down 9 times by Usman over their 2 fights, 3 times by Gunner Nelson, 2x by Luque, 4x by Dominic Waters (who the fuck is that guy), 3x by Claudio Silva. Colby got in his head, he's going to be super aggressive looking for the killshot early and often. I think that plays right into Colby's hands. Six takedowns vs Jorge. 3 takedowns vs Woodley. 10 takedowns vs Lawler. 7 vs RDA. 8 vs Dong Hyun Kim. 12 vs Barberena. 6 vs Max Griffin. 5 vs Meunier. Guy is a takedown machine. He's also high volume on the feet. Most of my lineups will revolve around Colby tonight, and I'll have a ton of parlays connected to him. Even though a decision is the likely path to victory, I can see him finding the neck and Leon passing out to the RNC. Can't shake the thought of him passing out in my head.
    Awesome card. If you made it this far, I appreciate it. It helps me with my process to type this out and use it to construct my lineups/betting card. Good luck!
     
    #27700 Lando Donovan, Dec 16, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2023