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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Krieger, Apr 24, 2016.
He was out before he hit the ground
Bodies are hitting the floor tonight
Damn. That was a huge win and Arman may be sitting behind Charles, Justin, and Conor/Chandler before he gets a shot at Islam. I think Dustin fights Fizeiv and the winner of that fight eventually has to fight Arman to get another title shot
Whoever booked the co main wants to see smith die?
while i agree i also think there is a chance smith gets a submission.
My picks for tonight:
Song by decision
Rountree by KO
Haqparast by decision
Elliott by decision
H Park ITD
Garcia by KO
Santos by sub
Taira by sub
Alencar by sub
I think people are not realizing just how bad of a chin Shannon Ross has. Park is one of the better -600 values I’ve ever seen.
3 UFC fights, head knocked off in the first round every fight.
Fwiw I see
Rayanne Amanda prop Dec
taira prob sub
Egger good dog bet
Costa probably Dec
Iron turtle Park decision
Nasrat and Mullarkey both suck I don’t want to pick
if costa wins i am going to have a good night
Off to a hot start with the old damage doesn’t matter decision
Yeah I stole that one from you for sure. Won the 2nd round, 3rd was dicey.
It was such a shitty fight both deserved to lose
That was so brutal
Garcia just hit a 4 leg parlay for me to start the night. Was wayyyy overexposed on DK. And the 11 fight parlay is still intact. Let’s goooooooo
55% of my lineups had Garcia at 7.2k. First 4 fights was a 12/1 parlay. Let’s have a night.
Needed that KO. Oddly enough it was body shot
That cash out button on mybookie is turning into Deal or no Deal.
I angrily put in Haqparast via KO and Keith Peterson tried his hardest to keep it from coming home
Mularkey was not even close to being in that one
ever since strickland won the belt, im fully expecting Colby to beat Leon
Colby is so incredibly overrated. Basically his only equal in the all sizzle no steak realm is Jorge Masvidal. The other UFC PR darlings all had at least a few minutes of being elite.
Ref saved some CTE
Sounds like Ian Garry might be out this weekend
Fuck that loser
Yeah but it’s a shame we lost the fight if he’s actually out. Luque would be his toughest opponent so far
His cardio is outrageously good, arguably the best ever P4P cardio from a UFC fighter. However if a fighter can at least not get overwhelmed by it like Usman, then Colby is very beatable. Don't think Colby could even KO a 125er with his pillow hands.
"arguably best p4p cardio ever" sounds like something his agent would say
You don’t want to end up like Izzy and just backing up the whole time, and letting him walk you down, but that’s easier said than done
Uh, you don't think Colby has some of the best cardio the sport has ever seen? Especially for a WW.
His cardio is great. But that’s usually not what you want to lead with when talking about mma talent.
Go out of your way to watch the interaction between Ferguson and Colby last night. The funniest thing I've ever seen at a presser. They started off talking shit and ended up bonding by the end of their "fight". Amazing.
How to read this: everything is based off percentages, then they are ranked in that category with 1 being the best, 24 being the worst. Finish rate is their finish rate of all of their fights, not just wins. Decision rate is a combination of their decision wins and losses, to help us gauge how likely that person's fights go to decision. Finished is the percentage of time that person has been finished in all of their fights. Then I rank everybody against the rest of their card to make it easy to read.
Very excited about this card. It's loaded from top to bottom. Hell, the prelim card could easily be a main card for a Fight Night. I'm wayyyy ahead of schedule for working on my bets, so I'll have those posted in plenty of time for everybody to ride tomorrow.
what cities would you guys say provide the best atmosphere in america?
ufc champion folks. cool sport
I feel bad for the decent humans in UFC
Surely there are some
I'm not so sure
Alright, let's jump right into this, I have NFL bets to make:
Martin Buday v Shamil Gaziev. Line has moved in favor of Gaziev. It's heavyweight UFC so taking a side on two relative unknowns is risky. But Buday's competition in the UFC has been mediocre (Parisian, Collier, Brzeski, Barnett), finishing only one of those jabronis. Gaziev has the best first round finish rate of anybody on the card, with only 3 of his 11 fights finding the 2nd round. I'll take Gaziev ITD for sure, might go nuts and bet on him to find the finish inside Round 1.
Andre Fili v Lucas Almeida. Again, I think I'll favor the slight dog who is relatively unknown. Fili is 2-3-1 since 2019, with the two wins being split decisions. Nothing too impressive, I could see him being cut with a loss tonight. Almeida is 14-2, with all 14 wins by finish, and only 3 of those going past the second round. Guy is a finisher, 3rd best finish rate on the card. Fili has one finish since 2015. I like Almeida ITD here, he'll be looking to get back on track after getting caught in an arm triangle vs Sabbatini his last time out.
Cody Durden v Tagir Ulanbekov. Durden is on a 4 fight win streak, with an impressive decision win as a dog vs Jake Hadley his last time out. #1 on the card in takedowns per minute, and I would expect that to be his gameplan here. In his last 3 fights, he had 4 takedowns vs Hadley, ELEVEN vs Charles Johnson, 4 vs Carlos Mota. Ulanbekov was taken down 3 times by Tim Elliott, 4 times by Bruno Silva. So even though it's scary for your path to victory to be taking down a Dagestani, I'm not sure Tagir is your typical Khabib type fighter. Durden's two losses in the UFC did come from 1st round subs, so tread lightly. The official pick will be Cody Durden by decision, but I won't be very exposed here.
Casey O'Neill v Ariane Lipski. My night will probably depend on how this fight goes. I love King Casey here. She was undefeated before she lost a decision to Jennifer Maia last time out. Before that was a sketchy split decision over shitty Modafferi. Casey is 4th in points per dollar, 2nd in fantasy points per win, so I'll be looking to roster her quite a bit on DraftKings. 1st on the card in significant strikes per minute. Lipski is low output (14th in sig strikes per minute, 17th in takedowns per minute). So I think Casey will be comfortable letting her hands go without fear of being taken down. I expect her to outstrike her by a wide margin, and perhaps overwhelming her maybe in the 2nd round. Lipski's lost 3 of her last 6 fights by knockout, so not sure she has that dog in her, and will likely want out of there when O'Neill puts the volume on her. O'Neill is the pick, and I feel like it's a coin flip if it's by KO or decision. Probably just a parlay piece and definitely a nice roster piece on DraftKings.
Cody Garbrandt v Brian Kelleher. I hate this fight. I hate Cody. I hate his room temperature IQ. Probably the dumbest person I've ever heard speak. Garbrandt being priced at $9k on DK is outrageous. He's 2-5 his last 7 fights. He's low output being 21st on the card in sig strikes/min. So he's always just loading up looking for the kill shot. The thing Kelleher backers have going for them is that's NOT the way you get him out of there. He's only been knocked out once in 38 fights. He's been subbed 8 times but Cody has never subbed anybody. I think we plug our nose and take Kelleher here, but full disclosure my hatred for Cody does play a part in that pick. If Kelleher does win, he'll be necessary on your roster at such a low salary.
Irene Aldana v Karol Rosa. Not much interest in this fight. Can't get that shitty performance Aldana had vs Nunes out of my head. Just stood there guarding her face for five straight rounds. Way to go for it dumbass. You work your entire life for that moment and completely choke. At least go out on your sword. How does she react after seeing how bad that was on tape? I have no idea. She's a terrible DK play, 20th in pts/$, 18th in fantasy points/win. I may have a sprinkle of Rosa if I need salary relief, but I won't have too much invested in her.
Alonzo Menifield v Dustin Jacoby. I think this line is way off. Can Jacoby win? Of course. But he shouldn't be that big of a favorite. I always find myself backing Menifield, and I definitely will here as a juicy dog play. He's a finisher, 4th best finish rate on the card. Very risky pick here, Jacoby is more than capable. But the official pick will be Menifield by knockout. Guy has the death touch and will pay off nicely if he comes through.
Bryce Mitchell v Josh Emmett. Yesterday on the weigh in show, DC mentioned Emmett already talking about hanging it up soon. If you're betting that guy, that's not encouraging. Mitchell is taking this on 10 days notice so that's also spicy. I would expect Mitchell to play it safe and try to find the take down early and often. Mitchell has eclipsed 108 points 3 times in his UFC career, but the other 4 wins were 81, 88, 50, and 66. I'll take Mitchell by decision, but I don't love it. Doubt I have much of him on DK. I would expect him to be highly owned because casuals just look at takedown rate and fill their rosters with those types. But when you dig into it a bit more he feels more like fool's gold.
Paddy Pimblett v Tony Ferguson. It's sad to say, but I think Tony is washed. 6 straight losses. Yeah those first 4 were killers, but he looked so bad vs Nate and Bobby Green. Paddy checks every box on my spreadsheet above, notice all the green. He looks to be in incredible shape after taking a year off. This is a set up fight by the UFC. They need him to roll, so they gave him a washed up name to get the bandwagon back behind him. Paddy by 1st round sub if you're feeling lucky. Paddy ITD is the play. Also, he's terrible in points per dollar so I like him a lot as a pivot off of a very popular Bryce Mitchell if you're into game theory. I don't expect him to be rostered a lot at that price point of $9.4k.
Rakhmonov v Wonderboy. $9.7k is a crazy price. I don't have much to say here, I think Rakhmonov wins for sure. Wonderboy has only been stopped once his entire career, and that was the famous SuperMan punch by Pettis. Rakhmonov has finished all 17 of his wins, so something has to give here. I expect Rakhmonov to find the back and get the sub. Wonderboy has been taken down 12 times his past 3 fights, and that's not a position you want to be in vs this guy. It'll be an interesting styles clash for sure, but the official pick is Shavkat by sub.
Royval v Pantoja. I've been a Pantoja fan since his Ultimate Fighter days. Maybe the best season ever, the entire weight division came from that show. Royval is a fast finisher, and I expect that to be his path to victory here. However, Pantoja has never been finished and had excellent cardio v Moreno in the championship rounds last fight. I won't ramble on too long here, but I think Pantoja takes him to deep waters and Royval will be there for the taking in the later rounds. Pantoja by 4th round sub is the spicy play, Pantoja by decision is the more likely scenario and the official pick.
Colby v Leon. I enjoy Colby's schtick, wish he wouldn't have said that thing about Leon's dad. Too far. With that said, I think Colby cruises to victory. Leon is a low output guy and doesn't have a ton of power. He was taken down 9 times by Usman over their 2 fights, 3 times by Gunner Nelson, 2x by Luque, 4x by Dominic Waters (who the fuck is that guy), 3x by Claudio Silva. Colby got in his head, he's going to be super aggressive looking for the killshot early and often. I think that plays right into Colby's hands. Six takedowns vs Jorge. 3 takedowns vs Woodley. 10 takedowns vs Lawler. 7 vs RDA. 8 vs Dong Hyun Kim. 12 vs Barberena. 6 vs Max Griffin. 5 vs Meunier. Guy is a takedown machine. He's also high volume on the feet. Most of my lineups will revolve around Colby tonight, and I'll have a ton of parlays connected to him. Even though a decision is the likely path to victory, I can see him finding the neck and Leon passing out to the RNC. Can't shake the thought of him passing out in my head.
Awesome card. If you made it this far, I appreciate it. It helps me with my process to type this out and use it to construct my lineups/betting card. Good luck!