Crazy story, but true. Late 80’s and I was flying into Lincoln from the west. I was on the north side of the plane in a window seat looking at a cloud that went way the hell up in the sky. I told the passenger next to me that there was a tornado underneath that cloud. He just gave me a blank stare. The next day I read the report of the tornado. I was not/am not a meteorologist. In those days, and even later, I felt one could look at the NWS radar reflectivity and have a very good chance of identifying major tornadoes from the cloud altitude. In 2007 I was looking at cloud altitudes in an outbreak, and told my wife, “My God, those poor people in Greensburg”. lomcevak , am I nuts with this perspective?
Ready to be disappointed. The front is too damn close to me now. Not going to get any rain whatsoever from this system
well if this morning is any indication to the next 3 days it should be a fun one. got hailed on already
So we can all laugh at me later and wonder how the hell I do this for a living. my forecast for the work challenge Spoiler: discussion As of 13z... upper level trough is rotating through the southwestern US with attendant 60+ knot speed max at 500 mb. At the surface a warm front/quasi-stationary front is located from SW KS into SE NE with a surface low in the OK panhandle with backed winds across the region. Widespread dewpoints in the low 60s are present from northern TX into N KS. 12z RAOBS sampled steep mid-level lapse rates across much of the central plains. As upper level wave ejects into the central US...increasing upper level flow and subtle difluence aloft will overspread the central Plains. Increased low-level moisture advection coupled with steep lapse rates will yield MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear greater than 40 knots will be widespread... conducive to robust rotating updrafts with all hazards possible. Backed surface winds, increasing low level shear... and curved hodographs will promote tornadic circulations, particularly with more isolated cells across north-central KS. As the low-level jet strengthens after 23z...tornadic storms are possible into the late evening hours.
Think Thursday might have greater potential than tomorrow. Looks like squall line tomorrow morning could hurt the atmosphere. Today still looks promising around the Great Bend to Salina area and up towards the KS/NE border.
If you want to watch some videos on these short-range/hi-res/convective allowing models that are all the rage, watch the 4 "Effective use of Convective Allowing Models..." videos at this link: https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/woc/severe.php Under the "Convective Fundamentals Curriculum" header. Choose the web version for each Gives good info on strengths, limitations, and uses for all of these, esp the simulated radar and updraft helicity plots that area all over Twitter right now. Total view time would be about 45-50 minutes
The 10% sig tor probability was dropped in that day 2 as well. Just a "standard" 10%, still quite high.
Evidence of the cold front stretching across western KS (NE-SW oriented cumulus clouds) with increasing cumulus development in north-central KS as the cap slowly erodes
The Topeka 19z (2pm CDT) sounding (data from balloon launch) looks about what was expected. Instability is large, cap is eroding, low-level shear is slowly on the rise with a favorable looking wind profile for supercells.
First tornado watch of the season for me. Let’s hope for some monsters spinning around in corn fields
NWS Dodge City ain't messin around, put a severe warning out on the storm near Hays. Probably not a bad idea, these things will go severe very quickly
The offices will probably be pretty quick with warnings today. Most of these storms will go up very quickly. Better to not fuck around and just get them out. Will get good lead times too