*** Initially a trap game thread. Decided to try my NFL plays this week instead. *** It's hard for me to decide between SD -3 at home against the Pats or SF -3 on the road against Car. A buddy of mine was tracking it a few years ago and West Coast teams that play on the East Coast in 1:00 games were getting killed whereas East Coast teams that play in 4:00 games on the West Coast were doing well. I can't find his numbers, but if I remember right, it was a fairly high percentage. Anyone else heard about this? Anyway, thinking of playing SD and Car this week small, maybe just SD as Car is flat out awful.
Re: Biggest NFL Sucker bet/Trap game this week there's a slight time zone/biological clock factor with West Coast teams playing early on the East Coast, but its basically negligible and has already been factored into the spread
theel47's NFL Plays Thanks for the heads up. My CFB system imploded on itself Saturday. I had SC -4.5 for 10U and when the line moved I got spooked and bought Ken for +5.5 for 10U to get my bet back(not posted so disregard if you like). SC up by 5 late in the 4th and I got a semi, not really, but would've been sweet to hit both. UNC bailed me out this past week (not a posted play for possible homer reasons so disregard as well). Lines and percentages are too sharp this week in college. Not saying you can't win, just saying it's harder to pick the right spots. NOTHING is jumping out to me right now side wise. I see a few totals I like (Utah as Aero mentioned), but I suck at totals. I've been fine tuning something for the NFL. This weeks plays are: SD -3 3U Miami ML 2U Chi -3 2U maybe Car ML. 1U if I decide to throw money away. Any comments or suggestions will be appreciated. BOL to everyone this week.
Heel, the chargers/ patriots game and the 49ers/ panthers game do look like traps. I take the Approach of either staying hands off or betting with Vegas. When Tom Brady is involved, I stay hands off. In fact, I may do a small ML, because I think that is where the value is (if you're betting this game). I am also tempted by the panthers. We will see. I love the bears play as I am on that as well.