Thursday Night - Nebraska at Missouri

I'm on Nebraska -2.5 for 2*

 

I took Nebraska -2.5 on Monday. I read it's supposed to rain, which would favor Nebraska bc of Helu a lot.

 

Also thought I would add that there are some rumors going around about a Flu bug in Lincoln. Pelini has downplayed it quite a bit...but who knows when it comes to that shit. Helu was one of the players mentioned and he sat out practice on Tuesday. Hopefully it's nothing

 

I was leaning towards the under because of the rain/flu.

 

Helu and a couple others had swine. Are ready to play

 

I took the under for a unit........ I think its the smartest play here with the heavy rain and guys with the flu.

 

*****AT YOUR OWN RISK*****

Missouri -3.5 (+240)

 

you love the reverse teaser lines....how often do they hit-->50%?

 

Was considering a parlay of Neb -3 and Under 50 but just looked at the weather and it's not a monsoon or anything. 30% chance of rain it looks like. Somewhat chilly, not too bad though. May just stick with Neb -3 and maybe play some of the props like Helu over 18.5 carries or something.

 

NOAA is saying 100% chance of rain, with some possible pockets of heavy rain.

 

That helps, then. All I checked was weatherbug and weatherchannel, both were giving anywhere from 20-40% depending on the hour.

 

My dad is in Columbia for the game. Just got off the phone with him. He said it is absolutely saturated down there. Wet as hell, been raining for two days. Said it doesn't look to be clearing up.

Also, home dog is 5-0 ATS on Thursday nights. I'm still on Skers -2.5.

 

Oh shit, I was checking for Lincoln. LOL Forgot it was in Columbia. Fuck ahahah makes the under MUCH more enticing.

 

Road dog? Nebraska is favorite

 

Prints,
If you were on the under 54, why did you wait so long to post it on your Twitter account. The line hasn't been near 54 since Tuesday

 

small parlay neb -3, U 50.

 

I don't update that shit till like game day usually...and if there's a big discrepancy in my line and the current one I'll make note of it....as I said on there...I like it down to 47...And I KNOW it isn't anywhere near 47.

 

Edit, home dog.

 

Got it. I'm just saying that you know a lot of people tail you and a lot of value is lost for those people if they're betting under 50 and you're betting under 54. I know you said you like it down to 47 but you clearly wouldn't like it as much considering your original under was a whole 7 points higher than 47.

 

That is very true...and I've already thought about being more timely with the updates...your post only solidifies that for me..

 

Cool. Wasn't trying to be a dick or anything about it, but I know some people would look at that and be like "bullshit that's a shady line he posted." Personally I know how it works and I know that sharp people get on lines early before they move so it's not a problem for me. I think I'm close to +12.5 points on my 15 bets vs the current market price but if I just posted my bets on gameday people might think I'm full of shit. You updating it when you bet it (or at least somewhat close) let's people know that it was legit. Otherwise they might think you're posting after the fact to increase some e-credibility...which in all reality is dumb as shit anyway considering that most people who gamble on sports just want to win and don't care if anyone else thinks they're legit or not. Sorry for rambling just trying to help you out before the haters start being gay.

Also good health tonight on Mizzou -3.5 as I'm on the corn shuckers at -2.5

 

Prints, what's your twitter page again?

 

twitter.com/22lbs

 

Well, I do care about credibility...which is why I just added the UNDER at the current number...and it's not because I want to look cool on the internet or what have you (although that's nice haha) but because I have very specific longterm goals and my credibility is tantamount to achieving those...

 

Ya I kind of thought that was the case. I figured by you not posting your pics in the Rivals thread and having people check your twitter page to get pics that you were trying to start something up. So yeah...I'd post lines that people can bet to best increase your credibility b/c sooner or later you're going to win at the number you bet and they'll lose at the number they bet and then they're really

 

I know you have posted that you want to turn this into a business. I have never paid for picks because I don't think its worth it and it takes the fun out of it, but I would be more likely and it would be more helpful if you posted earlier even if its just "jump on this line before it jumps". Half the problem with touts is you can never get the line they post.

 

good to know...I'm not looking to necessarily charge for picks....as I am looking to generate traffic to my website and followers to the twitter page so that I can go to advertisers with numbers that they want to see...as well as maybe a donation here or there out of courtesy...but I don't think it would ever get to a point where I sell 4 picks for $500 or something...that's just kinda sleazy to me.....I'm trying to help people make money not take their money..

 

Neb will bully the shit out of the Tigers. Rain will also take out the crowd

 

I know that I've made some money from your picks in the past and although I definitely wouldn't hate on you for going the tout route I give you respect for not trying to sell picks to people.

Another thing I've noticed from when you post...the whole "tail at your own risk" thing is a little confusing. It seems sometimes like you just do those bets for fun and that you're not wagering a whole lot of money on them. So if that is the case then I'd probably make that clear. Or maybe you're making those bets still to win one unit (do you even bet using a unit scale??). Either way people find it confusing when you do that and it's hard to tell for example tonight if you like the Under play better or if you like the alternate line...no one really knows if you go 1-1 will you make money or not.

 

buddy at the game just texted me almost every pass is being dropped in pre-game by Missouri.

 

haha this thread turning into help me market myself better..but I like the input......yeah, there's plays that I recommend and plays that I don't...but I'll still post those at times....I'll just make it more clear.

 

Prints, do you use a units system or do you have a set amount you bet per play?

 

Suh is such a freak

 

What a sloppy ass game. Penalties, dropped balls, shitty punts. This shit could go either way... 50/50 chance

 

set amount per game....no units..if I love a play I might double it....& if I'm getting odds I'll reduce it some...

 

Okay, here's an idea Bo. Your guys can't seem to stay away from punts, and they can't field them cleanly either, because it's raining fucking cats and dogs. How bout you tell them to stay the fuck away and not worry about catching it and having guys get blocked into the damn ball. Fuckin dumb.

 

Gotcha. I'm pretty much the same way. More of a feel than a system.

 

Thoughts on what 2nd half total will be? Anything 21 or lower, I'm going under.

 

hard to see them scoring more than 3 TDs.

 

Anybody seen a line yet?

 

Mizzou +3, 18 2H lines...

 

Jesus, started at 20, but everytime I tried to put it in, it kept going down. Finall got in at 18. Sucks watching it move down so fast when I couldn't get in.

 

I've never seen a line move that fast. 2 points in 15 seconds.

 

going back up now...19 at my book.

 

I'm regretting taking under 18. I might buy it back and just eat the juice.

 

cant figure it out.

is rain leaving