Week 11 CFB/Week 10 NFL

Week 1 4-6
Week 2 5-5
Week 3 5-5
Week 4 8-2
Week 5 6-4
Week 6 4-6
Week 7 4-6
Week 8 7-3
Week 9 6-3-1
Week 10 6-4
--------------
Total 55-44-1 55.6 %

Early leans?

Really liking ULL +3 at South Alabama on Thursday.

 

dome foam

TCU -44.5 in my pickem pool. You on it?


Early leans?

Really liking ULL +3 at South Alabama on Thursday.

Tulsa +17 at Cincy
Mich -12.5 at Indiana
Akron-7 at Mia (OH)
Ohio State -16 at Illinois
Texas at WVU -8.5
SMU at Navy -21.5
Ga Southerm -6 at Troy
North Texas +42 at Tenn

Arz +3 at Sea
Min +3 at Oak
Car -5 at Ten
Det at GB -11.5
Mia +6 at Philly

 

Thoughts on USA +2.5?
I'm leaning ULL.

 

ESPN Chalk Best Bets

Spoiler

with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica, of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay, are back. Every Wednesday during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games.

2015 season record:
Fallica:43-24-3 ATS (last week: 8-2)
Coughlin:28-20-2 ATS (last week: 3-2)

2014 season record:
Fallica:44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin:45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are inbold.Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.



Baylor Bears(-3) vs.Oklahoma Sooners
Chris Fallica:There is a total lack of respect for Baylor with this number, as the public has steadily driven it down. I realize Oklahoma has been great since the 24-17 loss to Texas, but Baylor has won 20 straight at home (13 straight Big 12 games) by an average of 25 points per game (PPG), and only the 61-58 win over TCU in 2014 was decided by less than a TD. The last two years vs. the Sooners, Baylor has won by 29 and 34 (last year in Norman as a five-point 'dog) and outgained OU by 222 and 225 yards. Prior to that, it won 45-38 as a 17-point 'dog and lost by eight in Norman as a 21-point dog.


Abrams: Alabama the clear No. 1 in latest Vegas ranks
ESPN Chalk's Evan Abrams provides the CFB Vegas Rankings after Week 10, an aggregate power rating from Vegas handicappers.

• 
  Harris: Early betting notes for CFB Week 11
  Will Harris offers takeaways from Week 10 of college football and looks at early intel for Week 11. He also explores whether anyone can beat Alabama's A-game and coaches on the hot seat.

The ugly numbers for Oklahoma: since 2011, Baylor has averaged 42 PPG, 511 YPG and 6.2 yards per play against the Sooners. Nearly a quarter of Baylor's plays went for 10-plus yards and the Bears scored TD on 21 of 56 drives. So this is not a one-year aberration. OU simply has been unable to stop the Bears. Maybe that will change this year, but I can't go against Baylor at home in this spot.

ATS pick: Baylor 38, Oklahoma 28

Steve Coughlin:As Bear mentioned, Art Briles owns Oklahoma. Looking back, he's won three of the last four against the Sooners. We all saw how impressive true freshman QBJarrett Stidhamwas in his first start last week, and again we saw WRCorey Colemanscoring touchdowns untouched. I just love the fact that this game is in Waco for the Bears, as I think that's a huge advantage for Stidham and the offense against what might be the best defense he faces in conference play this year. Plus, I can't believe the Bears are only laying 3. Baylor covers here.

ATS pick: Baylor 38, Oklahoma 28



Mississippi State Bulldogs(+8.5) vs.Alabama Crimson Tide
Over/under:52

Fallica:There are a bevy of trends in support of the Bulldogs this week. Each of the last four years following the LSU game, Alabama has failed to cover. Included in that span are three games vs. Mississippi State (two in Starkville). That tells me the post-LSU emotional rollercoaster is real for Alabama. Dan Mullen's team has been a live 'dog as well. Since 2013, State is 6-1 ATS as a 'dog with four outright wins. Sure, Alabama has the best defense in the country and points will be hard for State to come by, but MSU is a top 20 defense and its offense is actually 14 spots higher than Bama in terms of efficiency. FPI projects the Tide by 3, so there's a lot of value with the home 'dog. It all adds up to a close one Saturday in Starkville.

ATS pick:Alabama 23,Mississippi State 17

Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision.PickCenter

Coughlin:Plenty of people have offered up the nameDak Prescottwhen I have asked who the best QB in the SEC is, and I don't have a problem with that suggestion -- I just don't think the best QB in this conference is good enough throwing the ball to beat 'Alabama. On the other side, I don't believe the Alabama offense will score enough to make this game a blowout, so I will go with the idea that Alabama might start out slow but will do enough to win the game in the end. I just expect a low-scoring game, so I like the under.

Pick:Alabama 24, Miss. State 16 (takeunder the total of 52)



Stanford Cardinal(-10) vs.Oregon Ducks
Fallica:The Cardinal have been absolutely dominant at home this year, scoring no fewer than 31 points, winning by no fewer than 17 in any game and covering in all four. Oregon has rebounded nicely with three straight wins, but the Ducks defense remains a problem, as it is 98th nationally in defensive efficiency and 60th of 65 Power 5 teams. I think that could mean trouble against a very balanced, efficient Stanford offense.

ATS pick: Stanford 42, Oregon 28

Coughlin:Wow, when is the last time the Ducks were a double-digit underdog to the Cardinal? Check that, when is the last time the Ducks were a double-digit 'dog in recent history? The last time Oregon was an underdog was in 2011 when they visited "The Farm" as a 3-point 'dog and won the game by 23 points. Being at so many of these games the last couple years, I can tell you that neither team fears the other, and seeing how Oregon is playing its best ball of the year -- winning three straight games and averaging over 300 yards passing in those games -- I'll take the points but see the Cardinal winning.

ATS pick:Stanford 41,Oregon 33



Indiana Hoosiers(+13) vs.Michigan Wolverines
Fallica:The Hoosiers played another of the Big Ten's best teams close last week, only to again come away with nothing to show for it other than a five-game losing streak and a four-game losing streak ATS. IU's bowl hopes may hinge on pulling the upset here, as if the Hoosiers lose, they would need to beat both Maryland and Purdue on the road to get the magic number of six. The Wolverines have a real shot to get to the Big Ten Championship Game, which is pretty incredible given where this team was a year ago. It seems like this game will pretty much go the way the season has for both teams. Michigan hasn't beaten a top 40 team all year, but has taken care of business against the teams it should beat. IU has been close to the breakthrough win, but just can't get it. It's interesting that the two-loss Wolverines are a much bigger favorite in Bloomington than undefeated Iowa was last week.

ATS pick:Michigan 30,Indiana 21



Rutgers Scarlet Knights(+9.5) vs.Nebraska Cornhuskers
Fallica:Rutgers should welcome back WRLeonte Carroo, who has missed the last two games with an injury. It's perfect timing as the Scarlet Knights will face a pass defense that has allowed 8 TD passes and seven 20-yard completions the last two weeks. That's a welcome sight for an offense which has faced three pretty good defenses the last three weeks (Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State). The Huskers have lost both Big Ten games this year they have played as a road favorite. After an emotional -- and controversial -- win last week, they better be careful as the hunted on the road this week.

ATS pick: Rutgers 31, Nebraska 30



Purdue Boilermakers(+15.5) atNorthwestern Wildcats
Fallica:I feel like this is a Big Ten Bonanza version of Behind the Bets this week! It's the first time since 2013 the 'Cats are a double-digit Big Ten favorite (they lost that one) and look like they have righted the season since blowout losses to Iowa and Michigan. Purdue was blasted at home in a pick-'em game last year vs. Northwestern, so revenge could be at play here, as could the Boilers playing hard for Darrell Hazell, who was recently given a thumbs up for 2016. Like any young QB,David Bloughhas had his ups and downs but he's shown flashes (274 yards, 4 TD two weeks ago vs. Nebraska). The Boilermakers have also easily covered two Big Ten road games at Wisconsin and Michigan State as big underdogs. I'd suggest backing them here too.

ATS pick:Northwestern 28,Purdue 21



Arizona Wildcats(+6) vs.Utah Utes
Fallica:The Wildcats played USC tough last week as a nearly a 20-point underdog, which bodes well for the remaining two games of the season -- one of which they must win in order to reach a bowl game. Arizona has been a very good home underdog under Rich Rodriguez and hasn't scored less than 30 points in any home game this year. Need an indicator how this game will go? Look no further than turnovers. In blowout losses to UCLA and Washington, Arizona turned it over seven times and didn't create one; in its other eight games, Arizona has committed just six turnovers. And we have seen this season how vital turnovers are to the Utes' success, as they've forced at least three in five games this year, including four last week at Washington.

This game reminds me of the Wildcats' 2013 meeting with Oregon where a slumping Arizona team hosted a top-10 Oregon team and upset the Ducks. We'll see how much fight is left in Arizona this week.

ATS pick:Utah 30,Arizona 28



South Florida Bulls(+3) vs.Temple Owls
Fallica:After three straight miserable seasons, South Florida is on the verge of making a bowl game. Three of the Bulls losses are to Florida State and a pair of one-loss teams in Memphis and Navy. Temple found out last week going on the road isn't easy, even against one of the worst teams in the conference. USF has been very sound with the football this year just 1 TO in 7 of 9 games this year, while the Owls have forced at least two in 7 of 9 games. The Bulls have already pulled three upsets this year and at home, I like the Bulls to pick up a fourth.

ATS pick: South Florida 20, Temple 17



Arkansas Razorbacks(+8) atLSU Tigers
Coughlin:Last year, the Tigers went to Fayetteville after an overtime loss to Alabama and got shut out by Arkansas 17-0, and that was one of my favorite picks of the 2014 season. This year I like the Razorbacks again, even though the game is in Baton Rouge. I think the 'Hogs might have the best offense in the SEC, and as evidenced by last week's performance, the LSU defense is not what it has been in the past, giving up 434 yards and 30 points to Alabama, in what was their biggest game of the year. Bret Bielema's offense comes in averaging 57 points a game in its last three games, which includes overtime wins over Auburn and Ole Miss. LSU might win the game, but I'll take the points and call for the upset.

ATS pick: Arkansas 31, LSU 30



USC TrojansatColorado Buffaloes(+16.5)
O/U:60

Excluding last week, Colorado's offense has been playing at a pretty high level, which includes them losing at UCLA 35-31 two weeks ago. Just chalk up last week to a bad matchup; Stanford is better than the Buffs up front on both sides of the ball and it showed last week. I think Colorado has one of the best offensive coaching staffs in the conference and with the game being on a Friday night, you know the crowd will be energized, which is just what CU needs in this spot. We know USC will come in with its high powered offense led by QBCody Kessler, who is averaging 306 yards passing and 20 TDs. Expect a fast-paced game in Boulder.

Pick:USC 42, Colorado 30 (takeover the total of 60)

 

dome foam Any read on UTSa -5.5 at Char?

 

Yea I read alot of the same information. Ton of reverse line movement on this one with USA.

 

Sorry. That is what I meant.

 

All from me....

 

On ULL and Buffalo.
Best of luck.

 

Jesus Christ ULL can't tackle.

 

What a brutal game. Great pick 6 then grow an INT in your own RZ. We'll take the L on this one

 

Crushed it. Great calls.

I'm never gambling again (until tonight) after that ULL INT while leading with 5 minutes left.

 

That is true my friend. Good luck tonight.

Some college CBB to look at.

 

Who is that?