Week 6

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TLankAU, Oct 4, 2011.

  1. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Early Leans: Gonna try to trim it down to 4-5 plays and a 3 game 10pt tease

    OU -10
    Miss St -17
    LSU -14
    Army -1
    Kstate +3
    UGA -1
    WV -20
    Illinois - 14
    Kansas +33.5

    Off the bat I'd say probably tease OU to a pk, LSU to -4 and Illinois to -4.

    Miss State probably will be a decent sized play. UAB is in the Bottom 5 teams in the country. MSU trying to right the ship and save the season will not take a pushover game lightly.

    Kstate I can't figure out why they would be dogs in this game. Wrong team is favored.

    WV has one of the best offenses in the country. They should kill this aweful Uconn team.

    No clue why anyone is +33 at this point to OkieLight. They don't play defense.
     
  2. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    that Kansas thing makes no sense...Kansas lowest output all season is 24...I'll take my chances that a) they can put up more than that here and b) Ok St doesn't hit 60.
     
  3. InGogueWeTrust

    InGogueWeTrust Well-Known Member

    I like all of those plays. :respek:

    also took UNC and bought them to -13.5, Houston -9.5, and Clemson -20.5

    8 game 7pt teaser looking for another one to hit this weekend:
    -Boise -13.5
    -Oklahoma -3
    -Clemson -13.5
    -Miss St -10
    -UNC -7.5
    -GTech -7
    -VTech -0.5
    -Houston -2.5

    Lock. it. up.
     
  4. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
    Donor TMB OG

    you gonna lose the OU bet.

    assessment of this game...

    beginning in 2004:

    OU +12
    Texas +33
    Texas +18
    OU +7
    Texas +10
    Texas +3
    OU +7

    The last three double-digit victories have all been by Texas. The last time OU blew Texas out (2 TDs or more) was when Bull Reese was DC (2003).


    Keep in mind that last year, OU was favored by 8 and won by 7. Texas had its worst year in 25 years and OU was able to win by a TD.

    In 2009, Texas won by 3. In 2008, OU was favored by 6 and lost to Texas by 10.

    One thing I am sure about, is that this game will be decided by fewer that 10 points.

    Some Charlie Weis schematics:
    - Texas strength is its OL and running game. OUs weakness is its front 4. I believe Texas will be able to control this battle and win time of possession.
    - Texas weakness on D has historically been mobile QBs. Landry Jones is the anti-thesis of that. If we can get pressure on Jones, which hasn't exactly been our strength on D this year, we should be able to force some turnovers.
    - Bob Stoops has not faced Bryan Harsin, outside of the Boise game a few years ago...and we know what happened. Likewise, Manny Diaz has never faced OU.

    I believe it will be a close game decided by whether or not Texas is effective running the ball (and I think they will bc David Ash is a dual-threat), and if Texas can get pressure on Landry Jones.

    The history of this game also indicates a close game.

    Fuck you pay me. but for real GL though.
     
  5. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    overlooked this comment in the OP. as I feel like it will be a close game but with OU winning. But I'm more confident in them winning than in Texas keeping the game within 20.

    Haven't played any games yet. put the leans on here to try and get input on which ones to lay off of :heythere:
     
  6. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Army sucks on the road...miaoh has decent passing o...army couldn't stop me throwing to you...also miaoh has decent, for a mac team, dl play...secondary is suspect, but army can't take advantage...think the game is just a bad match up for army
     
  7. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    I feel the best about: MSU, WV, UGA and KSU. might be the four I go with. lines with my local don't come up until tomorrow so still plenty of time to read up.
     
  8. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    I would disagree that OU's weakness is their front 4. That was a question mark before the season for sure, but they have played much better than expected. To the point where it might be the one of the best aspects of the defense.

    With that said, I would touch either side of that game. Ever.
     
  9. tnvols

    tnvols New Member
    TMB OG

    I like my Vols in Neyland at night especially considering UGA is missing half its LB corps (Ogletree and Washington). I don't think UGA will have an answer for the passing game and it is very crucial for us to shut down Crowell on 1st down and not allow Charles to get open. Very big game for Tennessee to kind of "get back" on the national scene before the gauntlet that follows in LSU, Bama, and USCe to close October. Also, the way the game was played last year they will be certainly up for this one. With that said, Tennessee 31 UGA 24.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Went with these for this week. Depending on what the 11am teaser does I'll probably have 2-3 more plays:

    $200 / $161 LSU -14 (bt .5)

    $250 / $179 OU -3 / LSU -7 (7 pt tease)

    *LSU line went back down to 14 between tuesday afternoon and yesterday morning... thought it would keep going up tuesday so jumped on now I'm losing juice there. However OU is up to 10.5 now at my book so at least I got the benefit of a half point on the teaser there

    $200 / $167 OU pk / WV -9.5 / MSU -8.5 (10 pt tease)

    Likely plays for the rest of the day:

    Iowa +4 medium play. may tease with the Under 44.5
    Miami Oh moneyline
    E Michigan +21.5
    UGA/UT Under 57.5
    NW +7.5
    Wyoming +12.5
    Nebraska -10

    Never on TMB on saturdays because my gf and her friends would haze me for talking to my "e-friends"... so I won't be able to say which ones I actually played but off the top of my head there is a 90% chance I take Iowa, MiamiO and Wyoming, I just don't know how much. 100% on Nebraska for at least $100. EM/Under/NW are up in the air depends on how the morning goes
     
  11. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
    Donor

    Any thoughts on whether AU can pull off an upset on Ark? I haven't watched enough of Arkansas to get a feel for them, but think AU has a shot at it, even if its a road game.

    I'll probably add Wofford to cover against The Citadel, but that one may not make it to part of a teaser. .
     
  12. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    eeeeh I give us a 30% chance. Good chance we cover IMO but winning against them is gonna take some turnovers. Emory Blake is out so that hurts. Even though Arks running defense is shit, hopefully we can control the clock and keep their O off the field. see it as a 28-24 type game
     
  13. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    i think GT has a good chance to cover against Maryland. Was looking back at their schedules, and Maryland hasn't played against GT since 2007, before Paul Johnson brought his option offense to GT. They haven't had to play against that shit yet, and already have a bad defense going into its 1st road game of the year.
     
  14. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    solid morning and LSU is RAPING florida. poor poor gators. Nice call on the OU game sleazy :loldog: just kidding that's why we have open discussions here.

    Taking the Huskers and Wyoming for a pretty penny tonight