Week 7 CFB / Week 6 NFL

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by GatorGuy822, Oct 11, 2015.

  1. George Costanza

    George Costanza It's not a lie if you believe it
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    Super early but figured I'd get it started. CFB lines out today.

    Just starting to glance over some. Without much research I'm liking these so far:

    TTU -27
    Clemson -15.5
    Florida +7.5
    Boise -8

    I think a lot has already shifted on those.
     
  2. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
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    Louisville +7
    Zona - 7

    Where did you see uf getting 7.5? Haven't seen them getting more than 6.5 anywhere. Most have them at +6.
     
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  3. George Costanza

    George Costanza It's not a lie if you believe it
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    I pulled that from a Vegas site for what was considering the opening line but the best I've seen so far on any site is 6.5 on bookmaker.
     
  4. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Love Memphis +10 this weekend vs Ole Miss. Rebels have huge game with A&M at home on tap, so this is a sandwich game against a CUSA team. Fuente is a stud coach and this is their chance to shine on national tv. They may win straight up.
     
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  5. KNOTT

    KNOTT Well-Known Member
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    Ole Miss looked like hot shit versus Florida but Memphis aint Florida. Rebels roll. Im taking them at -10 and loving it.

    VT @ Miami -6.5 . Missing Fuller has to catch up to VT.
     
  6. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    S Alabama tonight +6

    Biggest bet of the whole year is PSU +17.5
     
  7. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    Notre Dame/USC line jumped from -4 to -7
     
  8. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    seems like an overreaction. losing sark is a plus.
     
  9. KNOTT

    KNOTT Well-Known Member
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    I think OSU gets it going. I just feel like that OSU DL is going to kill the PSU OL.
     
  10. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Tulsa +10.5 at ECU

    (Granted I was 0-3 on my bad team big dogs plays last week)
     
  11. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Thinking going UTSA +9.5 at So Miss. You are my inside guy with UTSA. Thoughts?
     
  12. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    i've got that line at 13. if you like it, i would wait for it to at least pass 10.
     
  13. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Is that the line you made it? Or you saw it on a site at 13?
     
  14. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    no that is the line i made. UTSA had no business making a game (ie covering) against LT. i think that southern miss coming off of a very poor effort last week, will get things right at home. likewise, UTSA "great result" almost beating LT doesn't tell an accurate story of what actually happened in that game. i think they letdown this week.

    i have not personally bet it. lines get tighter this time of year and i tend to pick my spots with more better situational factors than the one in this game.
     
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  15. 1

    1 A real fan. GBR!
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    I'm putting a LARGE amount on Northwestern +2.5. They play Iowa at home.

    Iowa imo has run out of luck. Both their OT's are out for the game. Their best RB is questionable. Their best WR is out.....and their best DL just tore his ACL during their last game and is out.

    That plus Northwestern is going to want to prove they aren't as bad as Michigan made them look. If I were to hcp this game I would've put it at Northwestern -5 or so but they're the underdog. I suppose too many people saw Northwestern get embarrassed last week and see that Iowa is undefeated so they put the line there to get the action but I'm just not seeing it at all.

    :twocents:
     
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  16. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    That was a tough beat.
     
  17. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    that was one of the weirdest finishes i have ever seen. Up 7, in control of the game, and then boom down 18 within 4 minutes. yep, a tough beat.
     
  18. George Costanza

    George Costanza It's not a lie if you believe it
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    Anyone betting the Thursday night slate of games (3 CFB, 1 NFL)? I'm debating a 3-team teaser
     
  19. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    My early picks this week (My lines don't come out til tonight so this may change)

    Baylor (-21)
    Texas Tech (-31)
    Mich State (+8.5)
    Miss State (-13.5)
    TCU (-20.5)

    Maybe
    Western Kentucky (-32.5)
    Florida (+9.5)
     
  20. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Week 1 4-6
    Week 2 5-5
    Week 3 5-5
    Week 4 8-2
    Week 5 6-4
    Week 6 4-6

    Pick 10 Pool. Need a rebound week.

    Early leans...

    CFB
    Cincy +7 at BYU
    Cuse +7 at UVA
    Boise State -9.5 at Utah State
    Buff +7 at Central Mich
    Mich State +7 at Mich
    Hawaii +5 at New Mexico
    Tulsa +10.5 at ECU
    OU at Kansas State +4.5
    Purdue +24 at Wisconsin
    Akron at Bowling Greem -11.5

    NFL
    Cincy -3.5
    Chi +3 at Det
    Car +7 at Sea
    Den at Cle +4.5
    KC at Min -3.5
    Atl -3 at NO
     
  21. colonelrascals

    colonelrascals Mayonnaise-colored Benz, I push miracle whips
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    I just did
     
  22. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    (posting what I have so far)

    College
    Baylor -20.5
    LSU -5.5
    So Miss -7.5
    Virginia -7

    NFL
    Bengals -2.5
    Chiefs +3.5
    Steelers +4.5
    Chargers +10
    Panthers +7
     
  23. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    GT -3 (Pitt is not in Clemson's class and a team is usually not as good or bad as the week before. PJ will turn it around this week back at home).

    Memphis +10.5 (fav play)

    SCar -2 (line has dropped too far. Think they will play with more emotion this week with the new coach and think they can cover a field goal at home against a Vandy team that hasn't won a road SEC game since 2013).

    Michigan State +8 (number has gotten too high. Will make Michigan prove to me they are worth laying more than a td at home against a top 5 team before I back them).

    Lville +7 (Lville coming off a bye and may be best 3 loss team in CfB and a hangover effect after Miami potentially in play for FSU. Petrino 3-0 ATS at Lville as a road underdog and 22-8 career ATS in revenge spots).
     
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  24. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    chiefs...yep.

    you must have bet so miss early on.

    i bet FLA +6 before the line went down. i am a dumbass. it was a relatively small bet though.
     
  25. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    here is a list:
    s alabama +6 -- awful beat
    penn st +17.5 -- biggest play
    louisville +7
    stanford -5
    boise -9.5
    texas tech -30.5
    georgia tech -2.5
    uconn -3
    wky -31
    kansas st +4.5
     
  26. The Hebrew Husker

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    Am I nuts for liking MSU +8.5??
     
  27. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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  28. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Took Mich St +7.5 :bad number but I feel like this # is a little too high
    Louisville +7 :Can't believe this opened at 10. Hate to say it but think they will have real chance at the straight up win
    West Virginia + 21: Again, got a bad number. Feel like West Virginia will be able to score enough to stay within the #
    Notre Dame -5: Good number here. Might be overreacting to the coaching change
    Ga Tech ML -145: Another good #. Largest play of the week for me
     
  29. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    I don't think so at all. Mich has all the support in the world and the worse QB. You get a more experience, but injured, MSU team and a better QB. I don't know if I'm playing it, but makes total sense.


    Anyone have thoughts on Cincy +7 at BYU?
     
    #29 NDXOS, Oct 14, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 14, 2015
  30. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Starting to really like Penn State to the more I look things over
     
  31. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

  32. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Why does this surprise you?
     
  33. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    that line should be 17 minimum.
     
  34. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Why? Tennessee with Dobbs can definitely play with Alabama
     
  35. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    i disagree. i think bama wins by at least 14.
     
  36. cal2431

    cal2431 Well-Known Member

    Wish I would have gotten on louisville earlier. Like them to cover this week
     
  37. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    ESPN Chalk Picks

    2015 season record:
    Fallica: 29-11-1 ATS (last week: 5-3)
    Coughlin: 16-12-2 ATS (last week: 3-2)

    2014 season record:
    Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
    Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

    Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

    Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) vs. Michigan State Spartans
    Over/under: 40.5

    Fallica: Talk about a huge swing in preseason perception. I feel like I might be getting suckered into a public favorite in Michigan, but I just don't have much faith in backing the underdog here. The Spartans have looked like a shell of themselves from the past two years, with injuries playing a big role in that. Michigan State has slid to 62nd in defensive efficiency and has allowed more 80-yard drives than any team in the nation. Michigan has done a great job eliminating negative plays and keeping the sticks moving. Anticipation in Ann Arbor for a breakthrough win is through the roof -- and that's a dangerous spot for a team which wasn't expected to arrive this quickly.

    [​IMG]
    Harris: Early betting notes for CFB Week 7
    Will Harris offers his betting takeaways from Week 6 of the college football season, looks at the early line intel for Week 7 and analyzes the state of the SEC East.

    The Spartans have slopped around with the bottom of the Big Ten the past two weeks, as well as through the majority of their nonconference schedule. That, coupled with the recent dominance over Michigan, leads me to believe the bill comes due this week. But buyer beware, as the Wolverines could be overvalued; their record might be better than the team actually is. The play here is over 40.5.

    Pick: Michigan 27, Michigan State 24 (over the total)

    Coughlin: If you told me before the season that Harbaugh and the Wolverines would come into this game as more than a touchdown favorite, I would have given you a lot of money. But how good are these teams? Michigan State hasn't covered a game all year and Michigan has beaten up on some inferior competition. So, what gives? Especially when you have a coach who it seems hates everything, and only smiles when he says the words "Go Green"; and on the other side you have an absolute wild man, who wears a lanyard and khaki's and always seems like his hat is a size too big for his head. I have no idea what's going to happen at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday in The Big House, but I'll just take the points, because I trust Connor Cook more than Jake Rudock.

    ATS pick: Michigan State 27, Michigan 24

    Florida Gators (+9.5) at LSU Tigers
    Fallica: We're going to know a lot more about LSU after this week. Brandon Harris will have to make a few throws in order for LSU to remain unbeaten, and the Florida corners are going to be trusted to handle the LSU wideouts in one-on-one situations. And if the Gator corners can, despite how good Leonard Fournette is, the Tigers will struggle to do a lot on the ground. Albeit vs. lowly South Carolina, Harris is coming off his best game of the year -- take a peek at how Greyson Lambert did against the Gamecocks compared to other SEC teams -- and now he gets the fourth-rated defense in the country. People are going to jump ship on the Gators with the suspension of Will Grier, but I see it as an opportunity to grab a hungry team with an elite defense getting points. Don't sell the Gators short here. They may not win, but it won't be easy for LSU.

    ATS pick: LSU 20, Florida 17

    Coughlin: Why does it seem like LSU plays at home every week? Oh, it's because the Tigers haven't played on the road since September. The Gators obviously took a huge hit this week, as their young QB Grier has been suspended for a year, and they are now left to start Treon Harris, who began the year as the starting QB but also served a suspension for off-the-field issues. My biggest question is: How much is Fournette covering up to me what seems like a still youthful LSU squad? I don't think they are playing as well as Les Miles would like on the defensive side of the ball, but this game will be a night game in the world famous Tiger Stadium, which is the best home-field advantage in college football. I think Florida gets in the Heisman front-runner's way enough to make the Tigers offense one-dimensional and the Gators hang around in the game. I'll be a sucker and take the points with Florida.

    ATS pick: LSU 20, Florida 11

    Texas A&M Aggies +4.5 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
    Fallica: This is the biggest game at Kyle Field since ... maybe ever. Just like two weeks ago at Georgia, Alabama is in the role of lower-ranked team under Nick Saban -- a position the Tide have excelled in (FPI actually has the Aggies as a slight favorite here). After a great game against Georgia, Jake Coker tossed a couple of picks, was sacked twice and had a below-average QBR. It is going to be crucial for Derrick Henry to have success on early downs because if the Tide find themselves in third-and-long, Daeshon Hall and Myles Garrett could be in the backfield all night. I know it was 59-0 last year and I know the struggles for Kevin Sumlin at home vs. ranked teams, but I sense the time is now. The skill of Kyle Allen, Christian Kirk and Josh Reynolds will prove to be too much. John Chavis' LSU defense held the Tide to 4.2 yards per play and nearly half their plays went for zero or negative yards last year. I picked the Aggies to win the SEC before the season began and nothing they have done on the field thus far has swayed that belief.

    ATS pick: Texas A&M 31, Alabama 24

    [​IMG] Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter[​IMG]

    Coughlin: I'm really excited for this matchup as we can finally continue the Alabama test. How I judge everyone in the SEC West is how they play against coach Saban and the Tide. I still hold Ole Miss in the highest regard because the Rebels beat the Crimson Tide, in Tuscaloosa. The Aggies come in undefeated but I have to admit, I have come away from watching them wanting more, especially from their offense. We have heard about how they have the best receiving corps in the country, I just simply want more from former five-star recruits like Ricky Seals-Jones and Speedy Noil. The fact is, there isn't a better time to showcase your talents than when you play the Tide ... and one thing I love that's on A&M's side is the addition of Chavis, who admitted facing Alabama and the guy who got rid of him at Tennessee (Kiffin) gets him a little more fired up. I'll take the home 'dog here.

    ATS pick: Alabama 24, Texas A&M 21

    Louisville Cardinals (+7) at Florida State Seminoles
    Fallica: Florida State is an overvalued team as evidenced by its 5-12 ATS mark in its past 17 games as a favorite (2-6 in its past eight games, with one coming on a late non-offensive TD). I thought I had sworn off backing Louisville after the Clemson loss, but the Cardinals showed something in their upset win at NC State. If they can pull another upset here, it's not impossible to see the Cardinals winning out. Louisville has played its best lately as a 'dog (6-2 ATS, four outright wins). The Cardinals' defense should give FSU fits as the 'Noles are coming off an emotional comeback win over Miami. As he did against Miami, it will be Dalvin Cook to the rescue.

    ATS pick: Florida State 23, Louisville 21

    Coughlin: Another week, another uninspiring effort for what I believe is the most overrated team in the country. Where would the Seminoles be if they didn't have Cook? I like Louisville in this spot for two reasons. One, it's a noon kickoff at Doak Campbell Stadium and it's just not the same kind of environment there for the home team to feed off their crowd. Secondly, the 'Noles might be a little down after beating their rival last week. I also do like the fact that Louisville has played way better competition coming into this week. I'll take Bobby Petrino and his Cardinals in this one.

    ATS pick: Louisville 23, FSU 20

    UCLA Bruins (+6.5) at Stanford Cardinal
    Fallica: Stanford has absolutely had UCLA's number the past six years, winning all seven matchups and holding the Bruins to 13.7 PPG, including a 31-10 win last year at the Rose Bowl when UCLA had Pac-12 title aspirations. The Bruins have had 12 days to stew over the upset loss to Arizona State and the Myles Jack departure from the team. After falling behind Arizona State, UCLA got away from the run (28 carries for 62 yards) so I would expect to see Paul Perkins get a healthy dose of carries. Both teams blew out Arizona and maybe the Stanford win over USC is taken down a notch after last week's events. Feels like a good place to grab the points, and maybe the outright win as well.

    ATS pick: UCLA 30, Stanford 28

    Arizona State Sun Devils (+6.5) at Utah Utes
    Fallica: Since its loss to USC, Arizona State has scored on 14-of-29 drives with just two turnovers in its past two games; predictably, the Sun Devils have won both. Utah again won the turnover game against Cal -- forcing six -- in the three wins over Michigan, Oregon and Cal, and the Utes are +8 in turnover margin (forced 12) and have scored 38 points off TO in the past two games. I can't imagine that type of turnover luck will continue. Utah doesn't rank in the top 20 in either offensive or defensive efficiency so that even further emphasizes its reliance on turnovers and special teams. Utah hasn't been able to beat ASU since joining the Pac-12 with the past two meetings decided by a combined four points. I expect another close one here.

    ATS pick: Utah 34, Arizona State 31

    USC Trojans (+6.5) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
    Fallica: This game kind of reminds me of the Trojans' last trip to South Bend when two weeks prior Lane Kiffin had been fired and the Trojans went out and nearly pulled the small upset over Notre Dame. USC has talent, there is no debating that. If the Trojans play the way they did at Arizona State, they will walk out of South Bend with a win. Clearly something was up last week with the lethargic offensive performance against Washington, but my hunch tells me the Trojans will rally around Clay Helton as it did in the bowl game two years ago. Playing the game will be the easiest part of the week for USC and I suspect it will give Notre Dame a ton of problems Saturday night.

    ATS pick: USC 27, Notre Dame 24

    Pittsburgh Panthers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-3)
    Coughlin: So a 4-1 team is getting points from a 2-4 team that has lost four straight games? That makes completely no sense, so give me the favorite. This is pretty simple, plus when I read some stuff about the Yellow Jackets this week, after losing their fourth-straight game, terms like "back to the basics" and "we have to find an identity" were thrown around. Why do I bring those up? Because I've been there, and those phrases mean that the coaching staff isn't happy with the players and their production so they are simplifying things and focusing on the essentials. I will guarantee Georgia Tech had a good week of practice. They really need a win.

    ATS pick: Georgia Tech 31, Pitt 20
     
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  38. jaygabriel

    jaygabriel Well-Known Member
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    Couldn't be any higher on UCLA +7 tomorrow night. Think it's a huge play.
     
  39. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Oddly I am too. I know UCLA has those injuries and they havent beaten Stanford in forever, but I thought the same thing.
     
  40. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    My plays for tonight:

    Kentucky +2
    Western Kentucky -33
    UCLA +6

    Falcons -4

    Then take all 4 in 6 point teaser.
     
  41. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    On WKU and UCLA as well. Best of luck.
     
  42. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    added:

    arizona st +7 -110
    arizona st ml -- small play

    nfl tonight:
    falcons -3 -115
    falcons/saints o51

    stanford wins tonight by double digits.
     
  43. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    All but the bengals were made Sunday.. then I think it was Monday Tyrod was ruled out..
     
  44. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Any thoughts on Iowa State -20 vs TCU?
     
  45. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole. Could ISU cover? Yes. Will they probably? No. Our defense is still trying to figure things out, and a team like TCU is not who you do that against. I actually think the game will be somewhere close to the line so I'm not playing it.
     
  46. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Did some more digging.

    Week 1 4-6
    Week 2 5-5
    Week 3 5-5
    Week 4 8-2
    Week 5 6-4
    Week 6 4-6

    Pick 10 Pool. Need a rebound week.

    CFB

    WKU -33 at North Texas LOSS
    Pitt at GT -3
    BC at Clemson -15.5
    App State -11 at ULM
    UCF at Temple -21
    TT -31 at Kansas
    Iowa at Northwestern +2
    UTSA at SoMiss -9.5
    Marshall -6 at FAU
    SDSU at SJSU -2.5
     
    #46 NDXOS, Oct 15, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 16, 2015
  47. tnvols

    tnvols New Member
    TMB OG

    That's what we all thought last year too. Tennessee was getting blown out in that game and made a game of it and covered the points on Dobbs first start and a worse team overall. I think Tennessee can definitely stay with in a score or two the whole game and make it interesting down the stretch. Tough spot for Bama coming off seven straight games and four tough conference games.
     
  48. tnvols

    tnvols New Member
    TMB OG

    Kentucky +2 tonight
     
  49. Joshuam2107

    Joshuam2107 SUH DUDE
    Donor

    Nope. sorry
     
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  50. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    small parlay Saints ML, Auburn -2, Stanford -7