Week 7

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TLankAU, Oct 10, 2011.

  1. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Don't think Vegas set this line high enough. -15.5 everywhere I look. TorBRAYdo is out. They have no running game to help out a rook QB. LSU should pitch a shutout.

    LSU -15.5 up to 17 I like.

    Bama -24.5 I don't see Ole Miss catching a glimpse of mid-field on offense. They are just that bad. Bama should have no trouble marching down the field feeding TR the ball and OM hasn't shown the ability to stop anyone in the redzone so touchdowns shouldn't be a problem.

    USCe -4. Now that they surgically removed the cancerous Garcia from the offense, they actually looked good last week. Granted it was against Kentucky, but still this shouldn't be an incredibly difficult game for them after seeing how bad MSU has played against middle/upper-tier SEC teams

    Post your strongest plays for this week and lets watch the line movement.
     
  2. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    This will probably be my card for Saturday:

    2 Game Parlay $200 to win $500

    LSU -15
    Bama -24
     
  3. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    NMSU -2.5
    Pitt -6
     
  4. MJRuff01

    MJRuff01 Well-Known Member

    I like those + Stanford -20 at WSU, Okie St -7.5 at Texas
     
  5. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Damn MJ was just coming here to post those 2 I like as well. :respek:

    Also love Clempsum -7 as long as Tahj is good to go. as far as I've seen he is probable. Is that the case?
     
  6. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Yep. He's going to play.
     
  7. Pokestradamus

    Pokestradamus New Member

    I like Oklahoma State -7.5 @ Texas and Rutgers -2.5 vs Navy
     
  8. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Is there a reason I shouldn't like clemson? people on a gambling site whose opinions I respect taking maryland. what am I not seeing about this game? is marylands "high speed fast paced" offense gonna do something? I don't see it
     
  9. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    It is one of the most be games on the board this week, already over 5K bets, with 90% coming in on Clemson and line has gone from 8.5 to 7.5 at Pinnacle. That would be enough for me not to play Clemson
     
  10. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    i saw it went back up to 8 on scoresandodds.com I've never really let line movement decide what is gonna happen on a field. but I am probably gonna end up just teasing it down to a pickem or -1

    edit: they're actually at 8.5 at my book
     
  11. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    i wouldnt discount line movement, but I also dont use it as the only factor. I do take public % into account because they are going to lose more times than they win. I definitely stay away from public road team after week 6.
     
  12. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Florida GatorsToronto Blue JaysToronto RaptorsBuffalo BillsToronto Maple LeafsTennis

    TLank. We can actually have a discussion here on AU/UF without blind homerism and trolls

    What you think of the game
     
  13. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Think the early line movement was due to the uncertainty at QB for Clemson. It's already back to 8.5 after Dabo said Tajh is playing.
     
  14. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    this seems to be the case.
     
  15. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Debose. I see the early $ is on UF. probably because if we don't do some serious tackling drills this week in practice Rainey and Demps can go for several of those 92 yard runs like Adams (i think) did against us. We're in for a long night if we don't wrap up.

    However I feel like the atmosphere saturday night is gonna be much much more hostile than UF saw saturday so those inexperienced QBs for UF may have trouble and if you've ever been to JHS at night in a big game, we get real real loud. I will be screaming all night. the matchup to look at is:

    AU run game vs. UF front 7
    UF run game vs. AU front 7

    The last two weeks have shown UF front 7 is not as good as people thought while they were beating up on cupcakes early in the season. Granted we don't have the power running game that Bama has, I think our run game is as good or better than LSUs. I'm pretty sure Blake is coming back this week which is huge for our offense to actually have a downfield threat. Last week we couldn't keep drives going because Arkansas started selling out on the run and we had nobody to throw to because they blanketed Lutz and the rest of our WRs are meh. I think our defense has stepped up with stopping the run lately with the exception of random big play gains - which happens to be UFs specialty. But most teams are not gonna be able to grind it out on the ground against us like they did the first few games of the season.

    AU loses this game if: we turn the ball over. UF breaks off 3-4 long TD plays with bad tackling - I think their deep passing game took a huge hit with brantley going down. only big play they had in the passing game last week was when the LSU CB fell down.

    AU wins this game if: our running game keeps their offense off the field. we don't turn the ball over.

    Only game I've bet on AU so far this year was vs MSU. I may put a small play on the +ML but that is it
     
  16. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    so far I got these two bets in.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  17. TheBobs

    TheBobs I'm an American.

    Public all over USCe @ Miss. St. (80% on the Cocks).

    Line has still dropped from USCe -5 down to -2.5.

    Wouldn't touch it, but it's still interesting.
     
  18. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    i think 7 times out of 10 south carolina wins that game. at some point you have to ignore the line and just go with what you know about the teams. not specifically talking about that game but just gambling in general sometimes people focus too much on what the line is doing and forget that the line doesn't affect the actual game itself.
     
  19. MJRuff01

    MJRuff01 Well-Known Member

    Stanford's closest game all season was a 26 point win. I only have to lay 20 at WSU, sure I'll take it.
     
  20. tnvols

    tnvols New Member
    TMB OG

    I'm liking LSU -15, Ok. State -8, Baylor, +9, and USCe -3....thoughts?
     
  21. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    teams I would absolutely not take this week

    Miafl (might take UNC)
    Baylor (I'm done with TAM)
    Michigan (might take MSU)
    Kansas St (might take Texas Tech)
    Northwestern (might take Iowa)
    Western Kentucky (Don't really trust the SBC)
     
  22. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew England Patriots

    Texas Tech is a nice play this week, I think
     
  23. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    I think I do a good job of seperating my "fandom" of Tech with my head when it comes to making plays and I am going to load up on Tech this week. Fits several trends that I love to play. Public road underdog that is ranked. Tech lost a close one to TAMU. TAMU played a perfect game and Tech's only mistake was the blocked FG. I think the line is low with the loss of the RB, who was very, very good. Tech doesn't have one guy who can replace him, but they have several who can. Good thing is the QB is better than people thought, so he can carry the team. This will also be the "easiest" offense for Tech to defend. "Easiest" is that they aren't complicated and you know what they are going to do. Stopping them is a different thing, however. Game is close in the first half and then Tech wears them out with the high tempo offense.

    The most plays KSU has had to play on defense this year has been 66. Tech ran 105 last week against TAMU and is averaging 85 on the year. If they hit 80, they will win this game by a TD because KSU will be worn out.
     
  24. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    RE TEXAS A&M:

    Every game they have covered 1st half and lost 2nd half.

    Just FYI.
     
  25. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew England Patriots

    Good stuff, thanks. Nice angle on the play count. I tend to agree with you there.
     
  26. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Added one more play this week and that's probably it unless i get drunk tomorrow on the plains and my phone finger gets itchy

    3Game 10Point Tease:

    USCe +7
    Pitt +4
    Cincy -6

    GL this weekend gents give them hell
     
  27. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Those are all public road teams. Lsu would be the only one I might play as am already on Texas, TAMU, and miss St.
     
  28. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Would lay off Baylor

    Have yet to see anyone tell me why Texas can keep up with OKSt besides "the public" which has nothing to do with the sport of football or the players taking the field saturday.... albeit my only wager on OKSt is on a teaser for them just to win the game

    LSU looks too easy and I think it just is... don't look a gift horse in the mouth

    USCe-MSU should be a good, close game. No way to tell if Shaw is legit or not since he did have USCe down 0-17 to ECU before he got put back on the bench and then dominated one of the top 10 worst pass defenses in the country last week. That game is a toss up and people are over-reacting to last week's game vs. Kentucky. But MSU's offense isn't anything to write home about. Could go either way but won't be a blowout either way IMO
     
  29. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    shameless bump. should have gone all in on this parlay instead of making the two other plays. two no doubters
     
  30. MJRuff01

    MJRuff01 Well-Known Member

    Murdered my big teaser this week.

    Had USC +4, South Carolina +3.5, LSU -7.5, Stanford -14, Oklahoma St -0.5. This would have hit as a parlay if south carolina did not take that late saftey.

    Sunday I have

    Teaser of
    Green Bay -5
    San Fransisco +14.5
    Indy +17.5
    New England/Dallas over 45
    Nawlins saints +3.5
    Bears +9.5
    Jets +3

    Parlay of (small bet $34.75 to win $677)

    Green Bay ML
    Frisco ML
    Saints -6.5
    Bears -1
    Jets -6.5

    anytime you throw in a ML dog to win outright it fuckin pumps the fuck out of the payout in a parlay.
     
  31. MJRuff01

    MJRuff01 Well-Known Member

    Also I planned on hedging my teaser as I hit my first 4 before the kickoff of the Stanford game, got called and had to go pick up my brother so never got that bet in. Was pissed as fuck about that at half-time, but was stoked during the 4th quarter.
     
  32. tnvols

    tnvols New Member
    TMB OG

    Adding a teaser

    NE -1
    Baltimore -2
     
  33. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    won a 2 game parlay Eagles/FalconsUnder at noon and about to go 0-3 and lose everything back to 0 with my afternoon games... need the Aints to win

    what we like tonight? after the bears shitshow last week I'm not sure they can win a game. they are at home... and it is mcnabb... so maybe they can tonight