Week 8 CFB / Week 7 NFL

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by NDXOS, Oct 20, 2015.

  1. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Lets get this week started on the right foot.

    Week 1 4-6
    Week 2 5-5
    Week 3 5-5
    Week 4 8-2
    Week 5 6-4
    Week 6 4-6
    Week 7 4-6
    --------------
    Total 36-34 51.4%
     
  2. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Early leans.


    CFB
    Temple +2.5 at ECU (Temple ML)
    Utah State -5.5 at San Diego State
    Georgia State at App State -5.5

    Pit -6.5 at Syracuse
    Indiana at Mich State -15
    Clemson -6.5 at Miami
    ULM at Idaho +2 (Idaho ML)
    Penn State -6.5 at Maryland
    Army at Rice -9
    So Miss -16 at Charlotte
    UConn at Cincy -13
    SMU +12 at USF (SMU ML)

    ODU at FIU -13.5
    Kentucky at Miss State -11
    Duke +2.5 at VT
    Houston -21
    at UCF

    NFL
    Atl -4 at Ten
    Dal at NYG -4
    Phi +3 at Car

    Bal at AZ -7.5
    NYJ +9 at NE
     
    #2 NDXOS, Oct 20, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 21, 2015
  3. cal2431

    cal2431 Well-Known Member

    So far, I am on Bowling Green -14.5 and Duke +3 on the road at VT.

    Thinking I'll jump on Clemson at -6.5 as well.
     
  4. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    SMU is a big play for me.

    also on colorado +3.

    possibly kansas state ML.
     
  5. Irish226

    Irish226 Well-Known Member
    Donor

    SC anything less than -4 for me
     
  6. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Already got

    College

    Ecu -2
    Cal +5
    Tulsa +11

    Buffalo +3
    Texas -4
    Pitt -6.5
    UNC -17

    Maryland +7
    Ole Miss -6

    NFL

    Seahawks -6.5
    Raiders +4
    Bucs +4
    Eagles +3
    Chiefs ML
    Dolphins -4
    Ravens +10

    Leans
    Titans +4
    Saints +4.5
    Ravens +10
    Seahawks -6.5
    Chiefs ML
    Ole Miss -6
     
    #6 King_Of_Expo_Park, Oct 21, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2015
  7. cal2431

    cal2431 Well-Known Member

    Why are you big on SMU? I know absolutely nothing about them aside from them being 1-5
     
  8. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    SMU can really score, their defense is HORRIBLE. They have scored 28 (HOU) 23 (ECU) 45 (James Madison) 37 (TCU) 31 (North Texas) 21 (Baylor). But they have faced some really good offenses, which USF is not one.
    I really think they can score 30 on USF. USF only averages 28 points a game. USF is a run first team that will want to shorten the game. I don't think USF can out score SMU by 2 TDS, that is why I'm on SMU +12. And I will play alittle on the money line just in case SMU can win in a close one.
     
    cal2431 likes this.
  9. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    good post. essentially my thoughts on this game. i will also be playing smu 1h, as they tend to start hot and finish poorly.
     
  10. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Really like that pick. SMU has been in almost every game at half time this year and really struggle late in games in the second half. I think that has to alot to do with their lack of depth (poor recruiting) and the fact they can't stop anyone. But they are coming off a bye and hopefully will be fresh.

    That and USF's QB (Flowers) is terrible. He is basically a RB at QB. v UConn 11/15 157 2/2 98 yards rushing.............Syrcause (played kinda well) 15/22 259 2/0 55 yards rushing............ v Memphis 17/26 199 1/1 23 yards rushing............vs Maryland 10/19 60 1/1 85 yards rushing........FSU 12/24 125 2/1 38 yards rushing........ and vs FAMU 12/16 141 2/1 63 yards rushing.

    USF does have a solid RB in Mack. 13 for 113 vs Uconn. 20 for 184 vs Cuse. 20 for 107 vs Memphis......... 12 for 71 vs Maryland...........18 for 83 vs FSU..........23 for 131 vs FAMU.

    I think they will keep it on the ground and shorten the game. I could see a 31-28 USF win or 31-30 SMU win.

    Southern Methodist is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
     
    #10 NDXOS, Oct 22, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 22, 2015
  11. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    ESPN Chalk

    2015 season record:
    Fallica: 30-16-2 ATS (last week: 2-5)
    Coughlin: 18-15-2 ATS (last week: 2-3)

    2014 season record:
    Fallica:
    44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
    Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

    Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

    Texas A&M Aggies (+5.5) at Ole Miss Rebels
    Fallica: The Rebels' season has taken a turn similar to 2014, but they still control their destiny in the SEC West. However, I worry about Ole Miss in this spot given all the injuries it is saddled with -- especially on defense. If Robert Nkemdiche can't play, that's a massive loss. Texas A&M's season is also at a turning point where a loss here will have many saying "told ya so" after a 5-0 start. Ole Miss doesn't possess the running game Alabama does and while the return of Laremy Tunsil will help the O-line (although the Rebels' starting center is out now), I think Texas A&M will continue its trend under coach Kevin Sumlin of playing its best ball on the road versus ranked teams.

    [​IMG]
    Abrams: Alabama, Baylor atop Vegas Ranks
    ESPN Chalk's Evan Abrams provides the CFB Vegas Rankings after Week 7, an aggregate power rating from Vegas handicappers.

    • [​IMG]
      Harris: Early betting notes for CFB Week 8
      Will Harris offers his betting takeaways from Week 7 of the college football season, looks at the early line intel for Week 8, analyzes the remaining unbeaten squads, and goes deep on Alabama.
    Another thing to like about the Aggies is how they responded last week after falling 21-3 early. Despite that, A&M had the ball down 28-20 after a blocked punt and worked its way back into the game. Ultimately three pick-sixes did them in, but I don't think this is a case of "same old Aggies."

    ATS pick: Texas A&M 33, Ole Miss 31

    Coughlin: There isn't a game that lost more luster because of last week's outcomes than this matchup in The Grove. As much as you want to say Alabama went into College Station and rolled the Aggies, I didn't see it that way. It was a 28-20 game late in the fourth quarter and A&M had the ball. But what I took away from the game was that A&M quarterback Kyle Allen looked a little shaken, and it happened pretty soon in the game. Now, no one saw three pick-sixes coming that ultimately stamped the Tide's win, but it is what it is. On the other side, Ole Miss simply got punched in the face by Memphis. There is so much to play for in this game, and no matter how bad last week was for each of these teams, Ole Miss can stay in the driver's seat in the SEC West. I expect a close game in this one.

    ATS pick: Ole Miss 31, Texas A&M 28

    USC Trojans (-3.5) vs. Utah Utes
    Fallica: I can already hear Lee Corso Saturday morning on College GameDay: "Utah is undefeated and No. 3 in the country. USC is 3-3, lost two straight and just fired its head coach. USC is a 3.5-point favorite. Somebody knows something and I'm going with the somebodies."

    [​IMG] Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter[​IMG]

    Don't worry Lee, I'm going with the somebodies, too. I can see Utah being a pretty big public play as an attractive underdog. The Utes have flirted with danger the past two weeks and this could be the week the other shoe falls. As crazy as it sounds, if USC beats Utah Saturday night, it likely needs Utah to pick up one more loss, and the Trojans would essentially control their destiny to get to the Pac-12 title game. They predictably showed a lot of fight last week before coughing up a fourth-quarter lead in South Bend. If they play that way Saturday night, they will walk out a winner.

    ATS pick: USC 34, Utah 24

    Coughlin: Look at what we have here: The No. 3-ranked team in college football is an underdog to a 3-3 team. I do remember this preseason seeing the Trojans as about a 10.5-point favorite in this game. As much as a I want to say that Devontae Booker is the most dependable player in the country, I also believe the Utes are playing with house money, as Travis Wilson is their starting QB. But it seems like the Utes are due for a down game and that includes Wilson. I look at USC in this spot, and I see a chance for the program to still get a signature win, in a season that has been rough on and off the field. I expect an enthused atmosphere, the USC offense to play really well, and the Men of Troy get an inspired win for interim coach Clay Helton.

    ATS pick: USC 27, Utah 20

    Charlotte 49ers (+16) vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
    Fallica: Southern Miss has been great versus the number this season (6-1), but FPI has them a little overvalued here, calling for an 11-point win. Charlotte has struggled to score points this season, but the ground game should churn out some yardage and eat some clock. You'll probably be surprised to hear the 49ers' defense ranks higher in defensive efficiency than Texas or Arkansas.

    ATS pick: Southern Miss 38, Charlotte 28

    Eastern Michigan Eagles (+28) at Northern Illinois Huskies
    Fallica: The MAC schedule-maker did the Eagles no favors with consecutive road games at Toledo and NIU. Predictably, EMU was drilled by Toledo last week, but there could be a little lookahead here by the Huskies as they go to Toledo on Tuesday night. Our numbers have NIU as a 23-point favorite. Northern will win, but the back door could be open late.

    ATS pick: Northern Illinois 49, Eastern Michigan 28

    Texas State Bobcats (-3.5) vs. South Alabama Jaguars
    Fallica: I'm not going to go into a huge breakdown on this one, other that to say this is strictly a numbers play. FPI has Texas State as a 10-point favorite, despite its only win coming over Prairie View. The Bobcats did put up 50 at home against an improved Southern Miss team and kept it respectable in Tallahassee for a half.

    ATS pick: Texas State 42, South Alabama 31

    Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes (+6.5) vs. Clemson Tigers
    Fallica: This will be a big test for the Clemson defense, as Brad Kaaya is the best QB it will have faced this season. Miami's passing offensive efficiency vs. Power 5 teams is fourth out of 65. Notre Dame is 13th and DeShone Kizer threw for 321 yards in the rain at Clemson. And while the Tigers' defense is fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, if you drill that down to Power 5 teams vs. Power 5 teams, that rank falls to 14th (for comparison, Alabama is first in overall defensive efficiency by the same measure). However, the Irish couldn't block Shaq Lawson, and he should give the Miami O-line trouble as well. On the other side of the ball, the Canes are thin at linebacker with the loss of Raphael Kirby in addition to Darrion Owens. Clemson hasn't covered in its past four ACC games as a road favorite -- and it won't here, either -- but it will grind out another tough win (as it did at Louisville) and keep its winning streak vs. unranked teams alive.

    ATS pick: Clemson 27, Miami 24

    Vanderbilt Commodores (+2.5) vs. Missouri Tigers
    Fallica: This Missouri team is certainly nowhere close to the one that won consecutive SEC East championships. Since Sept. 19, the Tigers are 116th in offensive efficiency (Kansas, the worst Power 5 team in the country, is 120th) and have scored 9, 12, 24, 3 and 6 points. Vanderbilt is a top-20 defense, which held a potent Western Kentucky offense to 12 points and gave Ole Miss and Georgia all they could handle. The Commodores have been in every game they have played this season and will give coach Derek Mason his first SEC win.

    ATS pick: Vanderbilt 17, Missouri 13

    Temple Owls at East Carolina Pirates (-3)
    Coughlin: No one loves the American Athletic Conference more than me. This seems like an awful spot for the Owls on the road in a monster conference game and with Notre Dame on their schedule next week. However, "The Bear" tells me the FPI has Temple as a four-point favorite in this game. So I'll side with the computers on this one, especially seeing how I can't stand this week's slate of games.

    ATS pick: Temple 24, ECU 21

    Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at LSU Tigers (-16.5)
    Coughlin: No one has been more wrong on LSU this season than me, but I'm not giving up yet. The Tigers have a bye week after hosting the Hilltoppers, which is then followed by a trip to Tuscaloosa. So why would Les Miles run Leonard Fournette into the ground in this game? Why would Cam Cameron use any of his best pass plays against this team from the Sun Belt conference? Western Kentucky comes in averaging 55 points in its past four games, so even if it scores half of that, you have to figure the Hilltoppers could cover against LSU's one-dimensional offense.

    ATS pick: LSU 42, Western Kentucky 28

    Florida State Seminoles at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+6.5)
    Coughlin: FSU fans, I'm sorry -- I have nothing against your team. The reason I called them overrated last week is because I expect more from the Noles, I mean, I picked them to make the College Football Playoff. I might also be a little bitter in the fact that Louisville was winning 14-13 in the fourth quarter last week and couldn't even cover seven points! With that, I honestly think the Yellow Jackets should be getting more points in this game, so something seems fishy to me.

    ATS pick: Florida State 31, Georgia Tech 26

    When they quote FPI.. just know FPI is 48% ATS this season.

    http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php
     
    #11 NDXOS, Oct 22, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 22, 2015
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  12. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
    Donor
    Florida State SeminolesChicago CubsChicago BearsMiami Heat2pac

    Like Duke getting points against VT. Duke might win straight up.
     
    jltman likes this.
  13. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    wow texas just jumped from -4 to -7 against k state.
     
  14. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Just a tip that I got this morning, probably wont play it because I try not to bet on my own team..

    Baylor is favored by 37 and the over/under is 78, supposably there is a hurricane sitting right over Texas right now and there is a 100% chance of rain in Waco on Saturday. Could slow down scoring on both sides and might actually help ISU with their decent run game. Not saying ISU wins this but ISU and the Under are looking good.
     
  15. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    it's not a secret that the entire state is getting close to 8 inches of rain this weekend
     
  16. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Think this might be why...



    [​IMG]
     
    #16 NDXOS, Oct 22, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 22, 2015
  17. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Week 1 4-6
    Week 2 5-5
    Week 3 5-5
    Week 4 8-2
    Week 5 6-4
    Week 6 4-6
    Week 7 4-6
    --------------
    Total 36-34 51.4%

    10 plays for this week.

    CFB
    Temple +2.5 at ECU (Temple ML)
    Utah State -5.5 at San Diego State
    Georgia State at App State -5.5
    So Miss -16 at Charlotte
    UConn at Cincy -13
    SMU +12 at USF (SMU ML)
    Duke +2.5 at VT
    Houston -21 at UCF
    CMU -7 at Ball State


    NFL

    Dal at NYG -4
     
    #17 NDXOS, Oct 22, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 24, 2015
  18. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Glad I got it yesterday at -4 , still would not be surprised if K State covered but a guy on twitter I respect had a huge play on Texas yesterday
     
  19. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Good start to the week for me.

    Temple +2.5 and on the ML.
    App State -5.5.

    2-0. Let keep it going!
     
    #19 NDXOS, Oct 22, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 22, 2015
    goose and dome foam like this.
  20. Don't Hate Me Bro!

    Don't Hate Me Bro! Wigglin my toes on a mink rug...
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago CubsIndianapolis Colts

    Utah St. pushed down to -3, -3.5... I'm guessing sharps are expecting a let down?
     
    #20 Don't Hate Me Bro!, Oct 23, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2015
  21. Goose

    Goose Hi
    Donor
    Ohio State BuckeyesCincinnati BearcatsCincinnati RedsCincinnati BengalsDayton FlyersTiger WoodsFC CincinnatiBarAndGrill

    Had temple on the money line last night

    Took Houston at -21 tomorrow
     
  22. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    I agree. good luck.

    Added Central Mich -7 at Ball State
     
    goose likes this.
  23. Goose

    Goose Hi
    Donor
    Ohio State BuckeyesCincinnati BearcatsCincinnati RedsCincinnati BengalsDayton FlyersTiger WoodsFC CincinnatiBarAndGrill

    I'm going to Vegas next weekend for the first time. Don't plan on doing much gambling outside of football and maybe the World Series. It will be nice to get a cash payout instead of a website account. Can't wait.
     
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  24. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    It really is a blast. My first time was during March madness a few years back. Sitting in the book watching games is the best way to watch sports IMO.
     
  25. Goose

    Goose Hi
    Donor
    Ohio State BuckeyesCincinnati BearcatsCincinnati RedsCincinnati BengalsDayton FlyersTiger WoodsFC CincinnatiBarAndGrill

    I don't think I could handle march madness in Vegas
     
  26. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Haha. It wasn't easy for the 1st time in Vegas. I'm not a drinker so I was coherent the entire time. It was quite the experience. Plus I'm a degenerate so you go from craps to poker to baccarat to the horse to the sports book. Fantastic.

    I like Memphis -10 tonight. Not on the game.
     
    goose likes this.
  27. Don't Hate Me Bro!

    Don't Hate Me Bro! Wigglin my toes on a mink rug...
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago CubsIndianapolis Colts

    That there RLM
     
  28. jltperson

    jltperson Making The Mainboard Great Again
    Donor

    yeah im taking duke
     
    TheGodfather likes this.
  29. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
    Donor
    Florida State SeminolesChicago CubsChicago BearsMiami Heat2pac

    Anyone else side with Vegas and hop on USC - 3 earlier in the week? Jumped up to - 6.5 today.
     
    King_Of_Expo_Park likes this.
  30. jltperson

    jltperson Making The Mainboard Great Again
    Donor

    I don't see how Texas and Kstate goes over 48
     
  31. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
    Donor TMB OG
    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Sharps all over USC, Public all over Utah. Classic Vegas power rankings vs. public perception.
     
    King_Of_Expo_Park likes this.
  32. Don't Hate Me Bro!

    Don't Hate Me Bro! Wigglin my toes on a mink rug...
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago CubsIndianapolis Colts

    Yep, tailing the RLM, teasing USC down though.
     
  33. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    I'm never betting against SD State again. 0-2 last 2 weeks.
     
  34. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Remind me to always bet on Bowling Green.
     
  35. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Good 6-3 start to the weekend....and a shitty day today.

    Temple +2.5 at ECU (Temple ML) WIN
    Utah State -5.5 at San Diego State LOSS
    Georgia State at App State -5.5 WIN
    So Miss -16 at Charlotte WIN
    Houston -21 at UCF WIN

    CMU -7 at Ball State LOSS
    Duke +2.5 at VT WIN
    SMU +12 at USF (SMU ML) Loss
    UConn at Cincy -13 WIN

    Dal at NYG -4
     
    #35 NDXOS, Oct 24, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 24, 2015
    TheGodfather likes this.
  36. Goose

    Goose Hi
    Donor
    Ohio State BuckeyesCincinnati BearcatsCincinnati RedsCincinnati BengalsDayton FlyersTiger WoodsFC CincinnatiBarAndGrill

    Took OSU at -21 because I'm a drunk homer
     
  37. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
    Donor TMB OG
    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Classic. Betting public is so dumb.
     
  38. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Kicking myself for not taking USC and Clemson. Talked myself out of it.
     
    goose likes this.
  39. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Anyone else play Idaho on the ML?? That was a nice little winner.
     
  40. Goose

    Goose Hi
    Donor
    Ohio State BuckeyesCincinnati BearcatsCincinnati RedsCincinnati BengalsDayton FlyersTiger WoodsFC CincinnatiBarAndGrill

    Took the Panthers at -3. Hoping to go 4-0 this weekend
     
  41. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Good 2-1 start to the weekend, decent Saturday, 1-0 on Sunday.
    7-3 week for me.

    Temple +2.5 at ECU (Temple ML) WIN
    Georgia State at App State -5.5 WIN
    So Miss -16 at Charlotte WIN
    Houston -21 at UCF WIN
    Duke +2.5 at VT WIN
    UConn at Cincy -13 WIN
    Dal at NYG -4 Win


    Utah State -5.5 at San Diego State LOSS
    SMU +12 at USF (SMU ML) Loss
    CMU -7 at Ball State LOSS
     
    #41 NDXOS, Oct 25, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 25, 2015
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