i prefer @chessbrah and i like the shade kasparov tweeted Carlsen is still the favorite but he's clearly declined from his peak
For reference: In classical time format, Carlsen (2835) and Caruana (2832) are ranked #1 and #2 in the world, respectively. In rapid time format, Carlsen (2880) and Caruana (2789) are ranked #1 and #8 in the world, respectively. Carlsen's advantage in rapid format is much much larger than it was in classical, so it makes all the sense in the world to play for a draw in game 12 and move onto rapid.
“But who will win 55 percent of the money? Probably Carlsen, and the faster the tiebreakers get, the bigger Carlsen’s advantage. To see why, let’s do a little math to calculate each player’s win probability in each potential round of tiebreakers. First, we need some measure of the players’ strengths in the speedier formats — I’ll use FIDE’s Elo ratings. Carlsen’s rapid rating is 2880, and his blitz rating is 2939; Caruana’s rapid rating is 2789, and his blitz rating is 2767. We also need a measure of how likely draws are in these faster formats. I’ll use historical data. In last year’s World Rapid Championship, for example, about 30 percent of the games were draws. In last year’s World Blitz Championship (which Carlsen won), about 20 percent of the games were draws. Combining those facts and running a bunch of simulations give the following probabilistic picture of the world championship tiebreakers. Carlsen is a roughly 80 percent favorite — again, based only on the quantitative factors mentioned above. These simulations do not care about Caruana’s strong form in the 12 lengthy games that have been played so far or his confident utterances during recent post-game press conferences. (In real life, the two have played 23 speedier games against each other, according to Chessgames.com — Carlsen won 13, Caruana won six and four were draws.)” https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ent-the-world-chess-championship-to-overtime/
I’m definitely rooting for Fabi. Just think Carlsen did it to showboat. Wasn’t content with 11 draws and 1 win, so angling to do damage in the tiebreaks as a show of force. If Fabi pulls out the victory, it would be a stunning achievement
Alright, t minus 7 minutes. The first tiebreaker round is 4 rapid games with 10 minutes rest period between each. 25 minutes per player with 10 second increment.
Carlsen 1-0 Caruana. 10 minute break. Fabi will have to figure out how to take advantage on this turn with White cause Carlsen had him almost the entire way. Fabi got an advanced passed pawn that Carlsen had to focus on and a dangerous knight two or three moves away from forcing mate with a rank2 rook, but Carlsen had it all sussed out.
Carlsen 2-0 Caruana. Only 28 moves before a resignation, eval at -4.4 to Carlsen. Carlsen got a great knight into a position to fork nearly every fucking piece. He dodged Caruana's last ditch effort to pseudo queen-exchange. Caruana must win the next two or this is all over.
Magnus is a beast. All these supercomputer engine line studies have made classical chess weird. The faster games seem like a more apt test of human chess skill.
Definitely. Still think that’s why Magnus said fuck a 6.5-5.5 result and wanted to go for the jugular. He may have gotten lit up for the draw offer by the community, but I enjoyed it.
If you haven't watched the documentary titled "Magnus" I highly recommend. I would just watch. Don't watch trailer, don't look anything up, just watch. It plays out like a sports movie, and was one of my favorite documentary experiences.
Really just depends. I prefer the chess.com app on mobile, personally. This actually provides a pretty good breakdown: https://www.ichess.net/blog/lichess-vs-chess24-vs-chess-com/
As an unabashed cheap bastard, hard to argue with lichess' 100% free model. That was insightful to learn about the other aspects to consider.
Throwing this out there. I'd love to get my daughter involved in chess early on because I think there are so many components (strategic thinking, reading your opponent, application of study) that are so prevalent to every day life. Full disclosure, I know how the pieces move but not much more than that. Any basic books/blogs/readings you guys have to understand some of the pure fundamentals of the game?
St. Louis Chess Club puts out a ton of content on YouTube (specifically Finegold and Rosen). As far as books: https://www.chess.com/blog/RussBell/good-chess-books-for-beginners-and-beyond Beyond a general understanding of openings (piece development, establishing center pawns, and controlling the center), it’s generally recommended to work backwards from end game. Once end and middle game play are locked down, then start putting some serious thought into opening lines.
It's funny how far I've gotten (1651 classical/1527 rapid/1356 blitz on lichess) by doing it out of order. Middle game (puzzles and tactics), dabble in openings, and now I'm buckling down into endgame study. I think I can really push my game if I don't fuck up winning endgame positions. I'd like to crack 2000 before my brain turns to mush when I'm old.
I’m always playing on mobile these days and generally three sheets to the wind telling myself that I can pull out my high school glory after watching agadmator analysis and convincing myself that it looks easy enough Sooooo yeah, all that to say I used to be in the 1500s in blitz, and am now hanging out in the 1000 range. Haven’t played a classical in years. I should just buy a computer and get back into it at a more serious level.
Appreciate it. This is really solid stuff. I'm not trying to train a world champion here, just want to be able to engage and teach at the basic levels.
You’re welcome, man. Love to see the game grow, and just like language it’s definitely best to learn at the youngest age possible. For the record, I didn’t study for shit until I joined my high school chess team. My personal catalyst was the fact that I’m super competitive and absolutely despise losing, so when my best friend scholar mated me in middle school (I’d never played and he’d been taught some basics), I decided that’s never happening again and played voraciously online. All sorts of ways to learn, so long as the interest and drive is there.
I read in passing that chess.com is harder than lichess, as in a 1500 on the former is stronger than the latter. Wonder why that would be.
passed 1200 today last time i passed 1100, i struggled for a while and went back to the 900s. fully expect that to happen again. i also don't study/know openings so i imagine i'm at my skill cap rn.
i play almost exclusively 5 min blitz but should probably switch to 3 min because i don't use that much time. i just don't know openings so the shorter times are tougher for me because opponents have their moves queued.
100% gotta move to at least rapid 10+5 or more. Slowing it down gives you that time to build pattern recognition muscle memory. As far as openings go, you’ll want to check out a study for one or maybe two black opening responses to e4 (my go-to is Najdorf) and d4 (Albin counter gambit). For white, you can get away with learning some aggressive Ruy Lopez and some defensive London. The midgame tactics and knowing how to convert endgame piece advantage is a more important focus.