Brexit...where Shock tries to warn a nation and nobody listened

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Shock Linwood, Jun 22, 2016.

  1. Jay Jay Okocha

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    Great to see Rob weigh in on matters in Parliament
     
  2. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    doesn't look like he said it to me
     
  3. leroi

    leroi Rival Shark Boat Captain
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    this is more about the dysfunction of the eurozone than brexit, but its an interesting talk.
     
  4. JonathanCoachman

    JonathanCoachman The Coach
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    Corbyn is known to be fans of both Stalin and Arsenal Football Club. Arsenal(for the last 20 years) has basically been an embodiment of Capitalism. He’s a conflicted individual.
     
  5. Jay Jay Okocha

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    He is a moron.
     
  6. Jay Jay Okocha

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    Corbyn is another idiot, a genuine one unlike Yanis though who is intelligent but is arrogant.

    I don’t necessarily judge politicians on their educational credentials. John Major and Paul Keating of the UK and Australia respectively left school early but were very intelligent and evidenced lifelong learning and did their jobs well, but Corbyn is a genuine dud. He comes from a solid and comfortable background but failed intellectually as a teenager and continues to do so.
     
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  7. leroi

    leroi Rival Shark Boat Captain
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    I'm not sure how a person can be both a moron, and intelligent.

    I'd say he is a radical, and a leftist, and views things from the perspective of Greek self-interest / skepticism of Germany's motives within the EU. This puts his views well outside the mainstream, but he certainly isn't a moron.
     
  8. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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  9. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  10. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  11. Coke

    Coke LIQUID BEAR COKE
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    So I'm kinda just dropping into this but I'm assuming labour doesn't want another referendum because they'd rather just have elections?
     
  12. JonathanCoachman

    JonathanCoachman The Coach
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    A success in those elections basically means they can do anything they (but actually only the Prime Minister) wants to do. There are no written laws about exactly what a PM can or can’t do.

    Nobody in the controlling party ever dares to challebge what the PM says or does because they alone contain the ability to hire and fire ministers in the cabinet (which is the like cools kids table.
     
  13. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  14. Louis Holth

    Louis Holth David LaChapelle levels of not giving a fuck
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    That was expected from everything I’ve seen today
     
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  15. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    so if they cannot pass this deal, but can't vote out May, what is gonna happen over the next few months?
     
  16. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
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    They have until end of March to come up with a withdrawal safety net....so until then they will go back to Brussels and ask the EU for more concessions in their withdrawal agreement (which the EU wont do bc they've given enough already and have little incentive to do more). Then could try another vote on that reworked Deal in the House of Commons, but it will fail.

    If no Brexit deal is brokered by March 29th, technically Britain just leaves Europe altogether and is on its own. UK would owe Europe ~ £39,000,000,000. No declaration on future relations, trade, etc.

    Alternatively, the EU could extend that March 29th deadline until 2020, which is currently being discussed. Gives Britain more time to tend to its political chaos. Could then have a more defined Referendum and/or General Election. I believe that another Referendum is the only way to undo Article 50, and Remain in the EU.

    Chaos in Britain is bad for Europe/America....and a really good thing for Russia/China. So IMO Europe will give Britain an extension to come to its senses. Worst case scenario it gives the UK time to put Customs infrastructure in place.
     
    #2166 Fran Tarkenton, Jan 16, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2019
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  17. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Thanks for the breakdown. Not that easy to follow British politics and procedure
     
  18. Biship

    Biship Well-Known Member
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    Not an expert. I think that the referendum to repeal/stop Brexit will happen
     
  19. bwi2

    bwi2 Not affiliated with BWI
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    The EU has ruled that Britain can unilaterally withdraw its invocation of Article 50. The British haven't decided yet how they could do that under UK law, but they did earlier decide that the referendum was not self-executing and that only an Act of Parliament can properly invoke Article 50, so it seems likely that an Act of Parliament could rescind the revocation.
     
  20. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
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    The bolded is why I am not certain. The European Court of Justice ruling is contingent upon revocation flowing from a "democratic process". Does an Act of Parliament qualify or does it need to be another Referendum? I agree the referendum itself was non-binding, it took Parliamentary action.

    It seems likely the EUCJ would interpret this favorably if Parliament held a revocation vote.
     
  21. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    Couldn’t they just do a special referendum in like two weeks and end this shit?
     
  22. steamengine

    steamengine I don’t want to press one for English!
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  23. ShuPoor

    ShuPoor I know my sins will take me to hell
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  24. Jay Jay Okocha

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    Three Tories have resigned from the party.
     
  25. Doc Louis

    Doc Louis Well-Known Member
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    Yeah the different back and forth steps have been interesting to see since it seems like they've had to figure shit out as they went along trying to leave the EU. It almost seems like they'd be better off having a second vote with less Russian influence.
     
  26. Jay Jay Okocha

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    Couple of good documentaries on Britain and Europe which gives a good basis of the dynamics at play. This 4 part one from 1996 charts it from the end of the War to the mid 1990s. Europe was initially supported by the more pro market people, ie Tories and rejected by Labour who were engaged in Nationalisations and Economic Planning back then. The change only arrived after Thatcher (there for a few years) was humiliated by Europe. This is far from the first time they’ve been left looking like morons, Charles DeGaulle rejecting them (along with Ireland, we joined together) was cutting.






    This is a doc on recent events- from when the Tories got back in and tried to renegotiate with Europe to placate the hardliners. They could never be placated. Goes into the Referendum campaign. The European heavy hitters are all interviewed except for Cameron.

     
  27. Bruce Wayne

    Bruce Wayne Billionaire Playboy
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    "Overwhelmingly rejected"
     
  28. timo

    timo Vuela, vuela, vuela vuela sin parar
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    Yeah, hope no one has their life savings in the Pound Sterling or anything.
     
  29. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
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    Conservatives Unite!
     
  30. Z

    Z Well-Known Member
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    Extremists reject something that gives them a good bit of what they want, and in the end get nothing because of their ideological purity.

    Boy, some things don't change no matter where you go.
     
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  31. Jay Jay Okocha

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    A Senior German MEP was just on TV there and basically told the U.K. to fuck off. Extraordinary interview. EU have given up on them.
     
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  32. Z

    Z Well-Known Member
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    People keep talking about an extension. Why would EU agree to an extension just to do the same dog and pony show in 3 months?
     
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  33. Jay Jay Okocha

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    I pointed this out before but it wasn’t listened to.

    Yes Conservatives are Eurosceptic, but so are whole swathes of the left including the leader of the Labour Party, who probably voted to leave in the privacy of the ballot box and has continued to scupper efforts at a second vote. Euroscepticism roots actually lie almost squarely in the left of the U.K. as well.
     
  34. Z

    Z Well-Known Member
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    Yep, see Michael Foot, Tony Benn, etc.
     
  35. Zap Branigan

    Zap Branigan I suffer from a very sexy learning disability.
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    Even though the UK will be hit hardest by it, all of Europe is going to feel it economically. They'd rather the UK stop stepping on their dicks but maybe they reached the point of not caring anymore.
     
  36. Jay Jay Okocha

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    The EU doesn’t want the U.K. to leave on a cliff edge as it will absolute fuck the economies of the likes of the Netherlands and particularly Ireland in the short term. The EU have already agreed to subsidize Irish farmers for their beef if the U.K. leaves with no deal (the UK have been talking about importing cheap and shit beef from abroad in a quiet threat to Dublin).

    The uncertainty pisses everyone off but at the same time everyday the UK is uncertain, the more finance jobs go to Amsterdam, Luxembourg, Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin.
     
  37. Jay Jay Okocha

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    It will be a GDP point in some. For Ireland it will mean empty supermarkets and the collapse of a lot of fragile companies.

    The only thing is that post the vote, a lot of businesses adapted. After the vote sterling absolutely tanked. I work with a lot of companies who operated cross border and sold a lot to the U.K., they never hedged sterling due to its strength and the complexity of hedging for Small and Medium businesses- you’re talking about earnings drops of in the double digit percentages because of that. The Netherlands and Ireland really prepared for Brexit since and there has been a real diversification of exports by smaller and medium businesses.

    Still though, it is difficult to prepare for when the main landing bridge to Europe for us leaves the market. There is always air freight and there plenty of ferries to mainland Europe, but it has been used a lot in the past.
     
  38. Z

    Z Well-Known Member
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  39. Jay Jay Okocha

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    There will be an amendment put forward for a vote in the next few days I suspect.

    May is still going to try and get her deal through though.
     
  40. Jay Jay Okocha

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    That’s the school of Jeremy Corbyn.

    Fantasy and outdated economics.
     
  41. Z

    Z Well-Known Member
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    Yep. Watching him pretend like he doesn't really want to leave is amusing.
     
  42. Jay Jay Okocha

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    He just can’t to reopen the coal mines.
     
  43. Z

    Z Well-Known Member
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    Gotta re-nationalize the railways too.
     
  44. Prospector

    Prospector I am not a new member
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    fucking idiots, no matter the nation
     
  45. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
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    You living vicariously through British politics when your own brand of right wing ideology is exposed as garbage in America will never not be funny. Not that your Republican party is anywhere near Conservative UK politics on a left/right spectrum.

    But yea, the failings and ineptitude of the British govt are def the fault of the Left.

    American Southerners wanting to achieve the same ends as Russia is fucking absurd.
     
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  46. Z

    Z Well-Known Member
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    Don't even know where to begin with this one.

    As my first post today stated, the failure of May's deal is due to extremists in Conservative party who are sabotaging their own policy. That's not blaming the failings/ineptitude of the conservative government on the left. But it doesn't help that Corbyn is a hopeless opposition leader.

    Also, I am not a Republican and refuse to vote for it. Last time I voted for a GOP candidate was Mitt Romney, and I was a little more dyed in the wool Republican then. Only votes since have been for Democrats.