Elon / Twitter Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Whammy, Apr 14, 2022.

  1. WC

    WC Bad Company, ‘til the day I die.
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    This. He’s signed the deal at present and is locked in. He can’t “put it on hold” or renegotiate. Twitter could take him to court for billions if he renegs, tho that would be a massive pain in the ass too.

    Most likely scenario is he pays $1B penalty for not fulfilling the contract and we all forget about this side show in a month.
     
  2. SD_Irish

    SD_Irish El Mas Chingon
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    Hey Elon, you can't just back out of an agreement because you acted impulsively and are unhappy with how the market winds have shifted. As usual, this is a case of him being a petulant child and the rules for thee, not for me being played. The SEC ought to do more than slap him with a petty fine. What a tool.
     
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  3. WC

    WC Bad Company, ‘til the day I die.
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    He knows they won’t, tho. The rules and enforcement around this shit are so pitifully weak. And even if they do try to punish him he’ll either ignore it or take them to court and cost them millions to defend a blatantly guilty stance.
     
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  4. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Hilton Honors VIP
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    AmEx reported an hour ago they raised their entire revenue outlook for travel

    so I would question where that kid is getting his news from if he is under the impression there is widespread market "tanking"; particularly contextualized against China entering a highly restrictive lockdown + Russia trying to start WW3.
     
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  5. Whammy

    Whammy Donde es
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    :facepalm:

    Guys - this isn't ideological or a "where do you get your news" question. The S&P is off to it's worst start in a year in like 80 years, but those factors are well known. It's not "The Democrats" which is I think is what you think I'm implying.

    It's all very explainable - we have a ton of supply chain problems due to Covid, inflation is high, and the Fed is hiking rates fast to try and cool down asset prices (i.e. the stock market) while keeping employment near maximum. The real economy is doing great which, as I have to repeat ad nausem is why I continue to vote Democrat!

    But the market tanking is factual statement and an intentional act by the Federal Reserve. It's ok to state that in this business context, although I can understand why Dems would want to use an alternative frame with the upcoming midterms.

    In this context, the relevant facts are the following:

    1) If Elon had offered the deal a month later, he's likely buying Twitter at 30%-40% lower than where his offer came in. Blue chips like Microsoft and Alphabet are down 20+% year to date, Twitter which is essentially stagnant, would likely be down much more. Paypal is down 60% YTD and Netflix is down 70%.

    2) The other relevant fact is that he's using TSLA stock ( a growth stock) to fund the purchase which is down almost 40% YTD

    3) The Fed continues to put out statements resolving that it will continue to hike rates until inflation comes down meaningfully which, based on on the historical information we have, will continue to tank growth and tech stocks like TSLA and Twitter.

    Given the above three statements, it's all very reasonable why he would want to renegotiate. I do have a little background in this, his investors and backers are almost assuredly whispering in his ear that he's way overpaying and his personal bankers are probably telling he's putting too much of his own stock at risk given the macro environment.

    Again - this not ideological, just the business mechanics and context of what is happening. I understand you guys hate this man, but there are more angles to than him just being an asshole or whatever.

    Here's something Reuters put out that's a very simplified summary of the various goings on.

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/...iate-lower-price-his-twitter-deal-2022-05-11/
     
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  6. poor paul

    poor paul Well-Known Member
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  7. Whammy

    Whammy Donde es
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    Knew that was coming. It's not easy to summarize, it's alot more complex than "he's a child!" Cut me some slack!
     
  8. Fran Tarkenton

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    I can't believe you typed up that many words without talking about what Russia has done to the global energy complex

    but then again, you invested your money in Cryptocurrency in unsecured vendors. Go hire a Financial Advisor like an adult.
     
  9. The Banks

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    How is the market tanking? And tanking in your context is when Elon made his offer to now.
     
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  10. Whammy

    Whammy Donde es
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    If you're expecting me to break down all global macro conditions on a message board, not going to meet that bar. Yes, Russia is also a factor affecting the markets. What point are you trying to make?

    I'll also allow that I don't know Elon's intentions and maybe he never intended to buy it! I don't know, nobody does. But the price he offered Twitter at is much much higher than what it should be given everything going on the markets. This shouldn't be a political question
     
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  11. Whammy

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    Is tanking the flashpoint word? Whatever you want to use "the Nasdaq and S&P are historically down in a year to date time frame." We can omit "tanking," if that's better
     
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  12. The Banks

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    You were talking about the market in relation to Musk’s Twitter overtake. Not sure why YTD is your time frame in this discussion unless you’re admitting to being disingenuous.
     
  13. TAXTAXTAX

    TAXTAXTAX Well-Known Member
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    The fed is raising interest rates to create unemployment and suppress wages. They aren't raising rates to cool off the stock market. You said yourself that it has already tanked.

    For some reason, the fed thinks it's preferable to have a few more million people out of work to lower demand, so that others don't have to pay for wage increases.
     
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  14. Whammy

    Whammy Donde es
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    Its relevant because that’s the context of decision making IMO…if you’re a financier evaluating the deal you’re looking at recent performance and projecting future performance which is why Fed guidance is so important.

    Not trying to cherry pick, but I think it’s relevant based on the parties evaluation criteria
     
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  15. Whammy

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    Well the stated objective is soft landing. Im hoping they can try to suppress demand, while minimally affecting unemployment like the Volcker hike. The logic goes something like “if wealth on paper is declining, people will buy less.”

    Not sure if it’s going to work, but hopefully. Your point is well taken though, yes reducing demand via unemployment as another strategy in addition to bring down asset prices. As stated earlier, in the interest of length hard to summarize this in a readable post
     
  16. TAXTAXTAX

    TAXTAXTAX Well-Known Member
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    Nah
     
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  17. CaneKnight

    CaneKnight FSU Private Board's Fav Poster
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    This all of this
     
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  18. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
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    I have no idea what kind of offer he put in but did he waive his due diligence? How is this different than buying a house. Make an offer and prove you can pay for it, due diligence, sign the final deal after the tires have been kicked. Often time there is some back and forth between the buyer/seller after the initial offer has been made.
     
  19. Whammy

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    I would agree that it’s going to end up creating unemployment, I’m just telling you thats their stated objective
     
  20. IrishLAX2

    IrishLAX2 So you’re telling me there’s a chance
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    I believe he pumped out his chest at first and claimed he was paying all cash. It then quickly became obvious it was far more complex an offer than that once TSLA equity became a major part of it.
     
  21. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Yea the cash offer thing was dumb. Hell look at this thread title. He was never paying $45b or whatever in cash.
     
  22. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Well-Known Member
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    This deal had very little that would mimic a transaction that the buyer planned on ever closing, and had a "buyer" who seemed intent on sabotaging the deal as soon as he signed the paperwork. It feels more like a Succession episode than an M&A deal. Residential home buying and corporate transactions aren't very similar.
     
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  23. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
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    what a fucking clown
     
  24. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
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  25. WC

    WC Bad Company, ‘til the day I die.
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    He declined due diligence. Twitter has disclosed their bot user issues in every filing and made reasonable attempts to account for it. Elon can’t just back out. Twitter can literally force him to pay the $27B he committed to in the contract, if they want to deal with the court process (unlikely) should he try to back out. This article explains all of it.

     
    #2975 WC, May 17, 2022
    Last edited: May 17, 2022
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  26. ~ taylor ~

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    I doubt a court would force him to buy the company, but it could find pretty stiff damages.
     
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  27. WC

    WC Bad Company, ‘til the day I die.
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    Right. And he would make any court process miserable. I think he’ll pay a penalty to end it and move on.
     
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  28. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Well-Known Member
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    He's an insufferable shitbag. I would love to see him mock a Delaware judge and get blistered while he makes weird faces.
     
  29. ashy larry

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  30. Chumbolone

    Chumbolone Wigglin’ my toes on a mink rug…
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    Fee based only. You’re a bigger sucker than crypto bros if you pay % aum.
     
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  31. zeberdee

    zeberdee wheel snipe celly boys
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    when shitposting gets you in a business deal you never really wanted a part of, I guess the best solution is to try to shitpost your way out of it.
     
  32. WC

    WC Bad Company, ‘til the day I die.
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    *hears random shouting in the Bay area*


     
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  33. ashy larry

    ashy larry from ashy to classy
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    this is tremendous content
     
  34. Redav

    Redav One big ocean
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    Elon Musk revolutionized not buying twitter
     
  35. El Tiburon

    El Tiburon Well-Known Member
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    Sorry, Elon. You conceived the idea and now you’ll just have to carry it to term.
     
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  36. bwi2

    bwi2 Not affiliated with BWI
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    *founded not buying Twitter
     
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  37. WC

    WC Bad Company, ‘til the day I die.
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    I will also not be buying Twitter at this time
     
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  38. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    The guy constantly lies about everything. There’s zero reason to ever give him the benefit of the doubt.
     
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  39. pez

    pez Competent
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  40. steamengine

    steamengine I don’t want to press one for English!
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    Republicans buy teslas too (now).
     
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  41. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
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    Glad you at least think you're just talking out of your ass
     
  42. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
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    Seems to be the new line from GOP Chuds is that Musk is trying turn Twitter in to the SEC so they get hammered by them for lying about Bots.
     
  43. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Well-Known Member
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    That's certainly unique. I think it's differentiated by the fact that IBP put itself on the market and picked Tyson over 2 other bids, and Tyson was in that business already. I think a better result if Twitter sued Musk would be a damages, given they weren't otherwise on the market and Musk's experience with social media is shitposting.
     
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  44. CaneKnight

    CaneKnight FSU Private Board's Fav Poster
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    The fed isn’t trying to cool down the market it’s hiking rates to increase unemployment and scare workers. That’s literally their job, they don’t want people getting wage increases.
     
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  45. chuckmasterflex

    chuckmasterflex Attack and dethrone God
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    Elon is rich enough that he can just fuck up badly indefinitely and declare victory and some idiots will believe him
     
  46. Whammy

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    No need to be a cunt, if you disagree then just respond substantively instead of taking the easy way out with snark and sarcasm

    Their job is quite literally the exact opposite of this, their mandate:

    "Federal Reserve Act mandates that the Federal Reserve conduct monetary policy "so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates."

    I mean, come on.
     
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  47. Bruce Wayne

    Bruce Wayne Billionaire Playboy
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    The Fed doesn't consider "maximum employment" and "full employment" to be the same thing fwiw
     
  48. Whammy

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    Aware and doesn't really address what he said - Fed doesn't consider it's job to be increasing unemployment and scaring workers
     
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  49. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    This mostly ignores the functional priority the Fed exhibited over the last four decades at a minimum
     
  50. bro

    bro Your Mother’s Favorite Shitposter
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