FSUsem's 2015 College Bowl Game Discussion Thread (22-15-1, +21 units after juice!)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 17, 2015.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Let's do this

    :chatzy:
     
  2. stexraider

    stexraider Fire Everybody
    Donor

  3. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    Will you be posting your sheet this year?
     
  4. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Yes, later today
     
  5. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Eagerly awaiting the sheet
     
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  6. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
    Donor TMB OG
    Oregon DucksGreen Bay PackersDetroit Red WingsBayern Munich

    Bup
     
  7. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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  8. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Anyone have the records of the systems and when they agree. I remember that last year?
     
  9. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    It is setup just like years past. There are two total systems, the off o/u and def o/u. The systems project what the total should be based on the offenses and defenses. The average is, of course, the average of the two which is generally near the total for the game. When all three total columns have a total above or below the posted game total, I've bolded and underlined the row for that bowl to indicate the agreement.

    There are two side systems and one system pulled from FoxSheets. My systems are the system A and B columns. The main difference between the two is that System B factors in strength of schedule. The values in the columns represent what each system thinks the spread should be. When all three systems have a line that is above or below the posted side for the bowl, the row for the bowl is bolded and underlined to indicate the agreement.

    If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
     
  10. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    When A&B agree, the side has gone 46-19 ATS (71%)

    When all 3 agree, the side has gone 27-12 (69%)
     
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  11. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ^^^These are from the past 3 years
     
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  12. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are from Pinnacle.
     
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  13. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Pittsburgh PenguinsOhio State BuckeyesPittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Reds

    Thank you for your work
     
  14. asmith2021

    asmith2021 Member

    Please do the daily star picks too
     
  15. stexraider

    stexraider Fire Everybody
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    So why are both systems underlined and bolded in the LV bowl? There doesn't seem to be agreement?
     
  16. Craig Pettis

    Craig Pettis The first million is the hardest- Hitler
    Donor
    Memphis TigersTennessee VolunteersSt. Louis CardinalsMemphis GrizzliesMetal

    The line is Utah -2.5. All 3 systems show BYU covering
     
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  17. stexraider

    stexraider Fire Everybody
    Donor

    Duh

    Long day
     
  18. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    OHHHHH SHIT!!!

    Praise be praise BEEEE!
     
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  19. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Isn't system A alone pretty successful as well, when they don't agree? Pretty sure I remember System A being good.
     
  20. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    System A is 68-41 (62%) over that same 3 year period. It's never had a losing year.
     
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  21. Smuggy

    Smuggy Well-Known Member

    Sem, what's the record of your posted plays through the years?
     
  22. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Unfortunately the 2013 and 2014 threads are gone. Plus, I posted on Rivals for the first 3 or 4 years and those threads are long gone as well.
     
  23. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Getting on these now....

    *****BYU +3 (buy the hook)
    ***SJSt/GaSt Over 55
    ***Louisiana Tech -2
     
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  24. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    I copied a lot of notes regarding the sheet in 2014:

    -System A is based on raw statistical data
    -System B is similar to A but adds in strength of schedule
    -The system numbers are what it thinks the spread should be

    -The numbers in parentheses in the spread and totals sections are the opening numbers.
    -Off O/U is guessing the O/U based strictly on offensive data. Def O/U is...you guessed it...based
    strictly on defensive data. The average o/u is an average of the two.

    As of (12/12/2014)
    When the Def O/U has favored the under by more than 6 points, it has gone 48-30 (62%)

    The best O/U predictor is when the Avg O/U column is more than 6 points off in either direction. Which
    ever way the Avg O/U column favors has gone 17-7 (71%)

    When System A has the underdog favored, the underdog is 28-13 (68%) ATS

    When the Def O/U has favored the under by more than 6 points, it has gone 48-30 (62%)
     
  25. stexraider

    stexraider Fire Everybody
    Donor

    I see a Tulsa VaTech OU listed at 61 which is a 6 pt difference on the Avg O/U on THE SHEET

    Also see the TCU Oregon matchup with a 78.5 OU which is also 6 points off

    FYI
     
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  26. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE


    Do you jump on bets way early with the sheet or wait until the day to account for possible injuries/suspensions etc
     
  27. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    The Def O/U TOOK A FUCKING BEATING LASTING YEAR.
     
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  28. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Indeed it did. Made a slight tweak this year.
     
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  29. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    I'll jump on it earlier if I feel the number is going to get worse for me. In this case I was wrong on BYU since I see some +3s popping up.
     
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  30. Space

    Space Miami

    Any reason you don't like SJSt -3 since all 3 columns like it?
     
  31. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    It is going to be a play. Like I said earlier I try to get the best number and based on the public money coming in I had a feeling this line would drop. It's down to SJSt -1.
     
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  32. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Adding:

    One more * on SJSt/GaSt Over 55
    **Appy State -7.5
    ***San Jose St. -1
     
  33. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Final Card for Saturday, December 19th:

    *****BYU +3 (bought the hook)
    **Appy State -7.5
    ***San Jose St. -1
    ****SJSt/GaSt Over 55
    ***Louisiana Tech -2
     
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  34. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Feel free to discuss plays/games in here as well. Were here to make money!
     
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  35. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Pittsburgh PenguinsOhio State BuckeyesPittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Reds

    Does 55 1/2 on sj/ga st still a 4* or a 3?
     
  36. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Tailing this 100%, zero deviation. Let's do this shit! Thanks for the work.
     
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  37. 1

    1 A real fan. GBR!
    Staff Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersTiger WoodsPGA

    I need a good bowl season....let's do this!!!!
     
  38. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Pittsburgh PenguinsOhio State BuckeyesPittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Reds

    The la tech line has fallen to -1
     
  39. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Yeah still 4* I like it to be in the 60s
     
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  40. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Pick em for me now
     
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  41. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Why do we not like the over in the AZ game?
     
  42. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    The sheet likes it, numbers arent that far off though. Honestly its tough to pull the trigger on that game. Huge difference in motivation. Sheet doesnt factor in home field, assumes nuetral field for all games.
     
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  43. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    If Arizona plays to their potential its not gonna be close. But as most are saying, after a fiesta bowl bid, are they really gonna be excited to play in the new mexico bowl? Will one sack take out their QB because of hus concussion history? Too much uncertainty to play anything in this game.
     
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  44. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    From Twitter:

    The under was 6-1 this season when New Mexico was an underdog. They opened as a 10-point dog with the total at 64.5 versus Arizona.
     
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  45. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

  46. TigerPawsSC

    TigerPawsSC Well-Known Member

    They're probably getting in eventually, but he was very clearly down.
     
  47. CUgator

    CUgator Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Colorado BuffaloesFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Lightning

    We're off to a hot start
     
    1 likes this.
  48. 1

    1 A real fan. GBR!
    Staff Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersTiger WoodsPGA

    Lol well....
     
  49. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Wake Forest Demon Deacons

  50. CUgator

    CUgator Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Colorado BuffaloesFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Lightning

    Lol. And this loss is official.

    If BYU isn't going to cover, I'd prefer they lose by 100.
     
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