Feel like Michigan/Texas is similar to UF/UM last week If you think Michigan covers, may as well throw something on the moneyline as a close game favors them and likely ends with a Michigan outright win Meanwhile, if Texas wins, it's probably by a couple scores Either the Michigan defense balls out, forces a few short fields, and Michigan wins a 21-17 game. Or they have to play too many snaps due to a lackluster O and eventually Texas pulls away something like 27-17 I don't see a lot of middle ground here
likely doing a SGP involving: U 52.5 Ravens +7.5 Pacheco 40+ rushing yards and some reasonable passing prop
Maybe had the LUCKIEST bets I ever won. BIG money on the Live Over 9.5 in Mariners/Athletics. 4-2 going to the 9th Than 2 out
Pretty clear that Vegas has no idea who is going to be getting the Lionshare of the ball in Buffalo and I think it allows an opportunity to make some money this weekend. Especially given the they play Arizona, who doesn’t have a particularly strong defense on paper.
The site I use now has the game stream built into the live betting page lol. It's only about 2-3 seconds behind yttv. Idk if I'll ever need to use it but laughed at it being added.
so funny story, I don't gamble, at all I just like data lol. these are the 10 games I singled out for my weekly picks though
benchmarks: 50.1% - ok at least I'm better than a coin 52.4% - ok at least I'd make a dollar betting these. If I refine a bit I'd make some nice side income 55% - I can make this a career
It's been storming down here since Wednesday night. I hope our defense shows up in this element. I've got my duck boots ready.
Kamala back to +money on BetOnline.... I wouldn't mind Nate Silver keeping up his shenanigans a few more weeks....
I may well be a moron, but how do I read this? All of CB’s picks are the favorites. Or do you just compare your projected scores vs the spread
Currently he has implied moneyline, which you can compare to the real moneyline. He hasn't modeled against the spread yet (just a mean score) I don't think
My picks are indeed all favorites The top is showing the games and probability of outcomes based on the win probability assigned to each game. So for instance, through 5 games the most likely correct number of picks straight up would be 4. The most likely outcome for the week would be 8-2 The bottom shows the assigned win probability and the vegas style odds that represents. You also have what I expect in terms of score; I think Kansas State wins straight up l, but based on a score of 27-20, I would take the points with Tulane It's something I screwed around with building and it may not be as intuitive as I want and might need to go back to the drawing board on
Yeah your data is good but my biggest caution on building it out is to ignore the natural impulse to believe that if you project a score to be 31-17 that it also means that -13.5 wins more than 50% of the time
What I took pregame earlier this week: Texas -6.5 (-110) Tennessee -7 (-110) Northern Illinois +31.5 (-110) USF +31 (-110) Auburn -13 (-110) — the spread is down to -10.5 now. Colorado +7 (-105) Added Cam Ward for Heisman at +1000 and Travis Hunter at +2500.
Last week we went 13-11 and down -3.5 units. The leans/info picks went 8-2 which was fun to not count. Spoiler Here are the picks for today: Spoiler Edit: down 3.5 units not 3
I hope someone here made money on the Michigan Texas game bouncing so viciously between -6.5 and +7.5
If I would have bet on all 16 games the payout was like $2.5 million. But 16 for 16 seemed a little unlikely . Plus betting on the titans always bites me in the ass.
Glad that dipsbit Michigan tight end could drop the ball inexplicably and cost me that first half under