eh, it can be helpful when used intelligently. it can also just be fun to consume insightful data. so let's keep out unnecessary silly homerism.
Large indicates I think the line is way off. I don’t bet big unless I think I have a distinct edge, maybe one or two times year at most. This is Bama/ND 2012, Mayweather/McGregor, levels of obvious outcome imo. I have no stats or data, I think ND is more talented and deeper and has more continuity amongst the roster/staff. A&M will get there perhaps, but not week 1, year 1. I think having two veteran coordinators is a marked advantage for ND. I think Leonard can win ugly in a close, grind it out game, bc of his mobility. If the inexperienced offensive line is having trouble, I think Denbrock/Leonard have more plan B options available, rollouts, RPO, QB designed runs, etc. I saw it last year at Duke vs ND. He carried Duke in that game. Now he has better talent. I also think ND TE room is quietly deep/talented enough ND can create alignment/coverage mismatches, help with blocking. A&M’s back 7 isn’t nearly as talented as their front four, if ND makes it a numbers game at the LOS I think they can find success running the ball. They have a lot of alignment versatility w the TEs and J Love. ND’s defense is top 10, probably top 5. A&M seems more like a top 25-30ish D. Think ND wins by a TD+, maybe stays close first half, but never really in doubt wrt to the eye test, what we see.
Saw a post on twitter to take Jacksonville State money line last night so figured why not. Had to be literally the worst bet you could’ve made yesterday lol
juiceless stadium with a late kickoff (8:30pm for TCU). bad recipe for a road favorite plus it's not like TCU has a good roster. I also have Stanford covering fwiw. I expect an ugly ass game
99% of bettors aren’t active until the week of the game and most aren’t active until the day of the game. People posting on Twitter about a number they got weeks ago is lame unless they are offering a Time Machine to tail their action! They are actually just trying to humble brag about closing line value, which is mostly worthless in college football! It’s a good way to make excuses for being a loser/selling losing picks to clients. “At least we had the best of it!” yes having a few extra points is nice. But being a CLV king in CFB and acting like it means something is rookie shit. NFL is another story (but also the spread is less important here than most people think! something like 75% of regular season games over the past decade have come down to just picking the winner. Dogs win or favorites cover.)
99.9% of bettors aren't you, and will never be. Take a better number if you've got it, That's a no brainer. But average Joe who bets 3-5 games a weekend should not be afraid to take 4 when 5 was available 10 days ago. College football CLV is largely astrology for sports twitter. We can get specific and talk about the USC +4 versus +6.5 Since 1989, there have been 51 college football games where a team was +4 and lost by 4, 5, or 6 points. 22 of those games were 4 point losses/pushes. 17 were 6 point loses, 12 were 5 point losses. In that span there have been 733 games lined at 4, the +4 team is 356-355-22 ATS. The +4 team covers 48.5% of the time, fails to cover 48.4% of the time, and pushes 3% of the time. If the dog was +6.5 in all those games they cover an additional 51, so the ATS record would be 407-326, 55.5% ATS, sounds great, but that is assuming +6.5 was available for all those games (it wasn't). Unfortunately I don't have a database with every historic line move. Extracting this value is theoretical and not realistic because your volume would need to be every game and you'd need to predict the line move correctly (and you still would only win marginally more games than you'd have won if you played slightly worse numbers, this is with the sample size of literally every game, which absolutely no serious bettor is actually doing). We can also talk about the fact that to get the "best of it" you are usually betting lower limits early and a higher win% with smaller bet amounts doesn't necessarily mean more money. TLDR: Getting more points is good, laying less points is good. But 99% of people need to worry about making good picks before they worry about CLV when it comes to CFB.
Fuck that. A lot of people can't manage it well but if you're betting a modest amount of your income and it's good entertainment, that's fine. Everyone doesn't have to take it as seriously as you to be OK to bet.
Agree it's bad for a lot of people. I struggled with betting waaaay over my head in my 20s. Tbh I'm quite proud of myself that I cap myself at a very manageable per game now. I still spray the board more than I should on football Saturdays but overall I've gotten way better. If I can enjoy a football season and lose $1k, I'm OK with that. It's entertainment for me.
Smh that's terrible. Up 4 with 7 minutes to go while getting 8 and still find a way to lose the cover.
I feel like Georgia ML is an absolute lock (and have it as a leg in several parlays) so naturally Dabo will work a miracle.
I need to workshop a meme using that format with the guy progressively painting his face like a clown. Something like me starting the season with putting $100 in my betting account then in early October I’m betting $500 on a Hawaii midnight over.
You trying to tell me LFG.vegas isn't going to have an undefeated season? Get lost buddy lets check in after the final whistle
I was scrambling to get this posted before kick and didn't have time to do a writeup or intro to the system. Pappy created this system about 10 years ago and we've been making incremental improvements over the last four to five years. This past year we have been focused on building the site, creating automation for the system and designing out the database. The composite score is what our system spits out after it runs through all the data we've entered during the week. We take in pro & joe picks, tipsheets, computer models, weather, historical data, contest picks, line movement and score each piece of data based on past win rates. Each team will have a source count for the pick and a count opposing the pick. The final composite score = for the pick - opposing. We are focused on presenting the line shopping this year and I'm glad you pointed it out. We also like to highlight our record is all ATS with roughly -110 odds. We are trying to educate new bettors on why you need to pay attention to price/shop and also be aware of the social media touts records. We are trying to take the approach of betting as many games on the NFL/CFB board as possible as long as we have qualifying sources. Doing this allows us to try and spread the risk across games. We are going to be fully transparent with our records as this whole adventure was born out of trying to figure out which pro handicappers were full of shit and which ones we could build a consensus with and win. I'll keep posting these here if you find value. We worked through a lot yesterday and this morning as far as processes for finalizing picks. Our goal is to have picks posted by 9am EST Sat and 10am EST Sun. Here is our record for the last 5 years: Spoiler
Nice, glad you've found something that you're making money with. And I appreciate teaching amateurs some good habits
Yea, terrible performance by va tech so far today. So we had 17 individual data sources that were all for Va Tech and only 3 which were on Vandy. Not only does it look like we missed big but 17 of our sources were wrong. UNLESS, va tech gets two quick ones off here and then I'd like an apology. We'll post the final results from this tomorrow.