I was by a friend's place today watching football and this whole topic came up. He's a part of a big landscaping company that handles huge properties and apparently they did about $600k worth of landscaping type stuff with the FTX main Bahamas HQ that's unpaid as of now and they presume they'll never get. He personally does smaller jobs on the side and SBF owes him like $35k for pool work and landscape shit at his place that my friend will presumably never see. Not much you can say to that but "damn". They're OK financially and can take the hit but it's still a pretty big deal for them.
Well you and I are in alignment that the highs of crypto had more to do with consumer discretionary spending than interest rates. Where I’d push back on your statement is that none of what you stated would have existed without the government backstopping the economy with fiscal stimulus.
Such a fun argument because it can never be wrong and never be disproven. “This thing that didn’t happen would definitely be way worse, so X was obviously the right decision.”
SBF will simply explain the judge that it was all free and open source protocols with no promises made to anyone. No harm no foul.
You’d be wrong. There are academic studies attempting to identify what went right and what was wrong. That’s how we learn and improve.
When you frame any alternative as the end times of the economy, you’re arguing in bad faith and doing so purely to go along with whatever happened. It’s dumb. There are countless alternatives you’re dismissing in the “this had to happen because anything else was the apocalypse.”
If we didn’t have the Iraq war, we would’ve been nuked. The Iraq war was the right decision. -arguing for idiots
Ok that’s not anywhere close to what happened, if cash flows stop, businesses fail, people have no money to eat, lose their housing the list goes on. It’s not some “well we don’t know nor to would have happened” scenario, anyone with an abacus could figure it out.
the best criticism i buy of our fiscal stimulus reaction (that for the millionth time, has us on a better recovery than basically every other country in the world) is that stimmies should have been smaller but more often and had auto triggers based on economic conditions. would likely have been more robust over the long haul but avoided some of the bumps. I'm all ears for your criticisms and what you think we should have done instead user15000
Also dumb arguing. Y or N: there's a world where the fed could've done something else that didn't lead to 8+% inflation. The fed was buying tens of billions of assets well into 2021. Those are all decision points. Maybe start there. Framing it as "exactly what happened had to happen because anything else was the worst outcome possible" is uhhhhh not true and, to my original point, impossible to argue against. Central bank defenders are hilarious given the track record. It's like 7 dudes setting the global price of money, and they're wrong all the time. Historical analysis of meeting minutes, comments, etc. is comical. Why anyone has any faith in the fed, let alone takes the position you do with respect to their decisions, is beyond me. This article is all pre-pandemic and gets into the GFC stuff. They're fucking clueless: https://unchained.com/blog/enders-game/
You're framing it as March 2020 stimulus checks like that's all they did. Lol. Idk man maybe read an article: https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-bond-buying-timeline-roaring-entry-boring-exit-2021-11-02/
Absolutely, it would’ve been a depression, I’ve stated before it was absolutely necessary. But that was never my point in this thread, nor was I being critical of it. But it did have more to do with the crypto bubble than zero interest rates which was the original topic.
we were talking about fiscal stimulus not monetary so weird pivot by you but also I lean no towards the bold based on global inflation trends
Ok you’re literally shifting the goalposts, yes QE led to massive asset price inflation that trickled out into the economy at large. What the fuck does that have to do with stimulus checks to individuals and small businesses?
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When the fed and the treasury move in lockstep, there's no real point in acting like they're separate entities. If you want to stick purely to the stimulus side, the March 2021 ~$2 trillion intervention is highly questionable and the alternative to that is not "our pets heads fall off." And if I had a dollar for every company I've done due diligence on that received covid loans that didn't need it, I'd have lots of dollars.
I mean there is 0 doubt it would have been worse. Without the government back stopping things it would’ve turned into a deflationary spiral rivaling the 20’s.
So with the bold central banks have nothing to do with fiscal stimulus, that’s is a government transmission mechanism, they can do QE and MBS but we had done that through most of the 2010’s without any inflation. The only thing the Fed could have done is raise rates sooner rather than proclaim transitory.
So is your problem the last round of fiscal then? Or PPP in general. what would have been your alternative?
Ya I don’t agree with central banks having nothing to do with the treasury. And the 2010s point is purely a matter of how you measure inflation. Cpi? Sure stayed low. Assets? Not so much. My position is that fed policy gfc to present is directly tied to the latter.
I’ve seen this user/lyrtch argument at least a dozen times, nearly verbatim. It’s kind of impressive.
one of the reasons why i exited the crypto markets was the overlap between crypto investing and dumbass chuds i was betting on polymarket and fucking around with crypto in 2020 and i made a lot of money off of people who thought trump was going to win even after the election. i'd feel guilty if those people were worthy of oxygen.
huge if true. Not sure if its truly libertaria to have the military retrieve your computer coins. caveat emptor many have said
here's a crazier idea: what if we formed a global network to support trade in a violence backed currency. just spit ballin here
JPMorgan: "while the news of the collapse of FTX is empowering crypto skeptics, we would point out that all of the recent collapses in the crypto ecosystem have been from centralized players and not from decentralized protocols." Always been a big Jp Morgan guy