Official Hurricane Season Thread (Swings and Roundabouts))

The science isn't strong enough yet to try to be predicting these things so far out.

 

If only Bill Paxton were still alive

 

It is time for the westward shift

 

There she goes...all the models are start to go in the same direction, maybe a TS at most time it lands hopefully....

 

I’m supposed to be on the gulf next week for a work conference and really don’t like the part about “lack of steering currents if it does get into the gulf.” Seems like it’s path might be tough to predict

 

We do have a front moving through coming at the end of the week, lets see how quickly it moves south.

 

Also planning on being around Mob/PCola. Perfect timing!

 

Seems like it is most likely going to be a rainmaker, but the gulf scares me with how storms have just blown up last several years

need some of that Sahara dust

 

I’m going to be in Orange beach but I’m willing to meet you at the Islander in Pensacola beach

 

The environment seems to be fairly unstable, we will see if it can do much

 

euro basically just has it as a big rainstorm

 

Not too worried about this one. Just going to be a rainy nasty wknd

 

Idk, with R.I. these days I wouldn't underestimate any of these storms. But yeah, probably won't have enough time.

 

yup. gonna be some crappy weather and that's about it.

 

Sounds like a defined center south of Cuba has shifted the models a bit west. Going to be a similar track to Idalia last year but nowhere near as intense. Could hit Cat 1 though

 

risk for this is it gets blocked off of the Jawja / SC coast and strengthens before a second landfall on the east coast somewhere (GA, SC, NC). GFS and now Euro both in general agreement with this idea.
gfs:

euro:

Edit 2: just perusing the various models, the greatest risk from this appears to be flooding rains as the storm interacts with a trough. Couple of these models are pretty bad looks for rainfall totals along the east coast.

 

From a big rain nothing burger to expected hurricane.

 

lol the 6z GFS run.
hits Florida in the Apalachee, meanders for a couple of days, crosses into the Atlantic off of Jawja on Wednesday and firms back up, heads due west for a few days into Alabama, ends up back in the Gulf and hit Apalachee Bay again as a weak hurricane on Tuesday 8/13 and then finally up the east coast.

 

Got some Idalia vibes. My folks just put the finishing touches on their place last week.

 

This would be tremendous

 

noon gfs running now. Seems bullish on the idea of a track that moves off of the coast of Georgia late Tuesday / early Wed, blocking in place and a stuck storm that retrogrades back into Georgia, Alabama, Miss late week. Would mean a lot of rain for some places in the SE. Unlike the last model, it seems to have the storm basically run out of juice over dry land.

But wait, this run introduces the idea that the second GOM storm is much further east than previous runs / other models and makes landfall basically in the same spot as Debby (*at 180 hours, this is obviously in the pure fantasy land part of the model run so no reason for concern)

 

Partly sunny in St Augustine Beach right meow

 

That second storm is definitely going to need some watching given it's over warmer water for longer

 

Your face, so close

 

View attachment 230821

 

Had a wicked band roll through around 1. Probably gusted 50

 

I’m clearly confused on how to post in my old age. You saw on Instagram how we rolled in this week. Mistakes were made

 

Weak tropical storm party at the bar

 

This is still a nothing burger by Florida standards. Idalia was worse last year and because it was on a similar track, there was minimal real damage

 

savannah would like a word after a foot of rain

 

Outlasted first group of bartenders, good minor tropical storm party in Tampa

 

Weather channel just reusing graphics from Cedar Key last year lol.

 

So. Much. Rain.

 

Been raining pretty hard all day here in the 941.

 

Wish they would go ahead and cancel/delay my flight out of Tampa tomorrow morning. Scheduled to fly out at 6am. I have a feeling I’m going to walk through security in the morning then get the notice of delayed.

 

TPA is still open. I’m flying there currently out of Denver delayed several hours but you’ll probably get out fine.

 

I’m flying up to charlotte in the morning. Just not sure of the route they’ll take to avoid everything.

 

debby does Perry

 

My guess is they'll go up and fly over everything.

 

Pretty sure we've gotten what feels like 10+ inches of rain today. Just constant with bad bands here and there with 35+ mph winds.

 

This is literally me right now