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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.
Holy smokes. Ouch.
Added to QQQ long position @288.35
Second time now it has crashed from 115+ back down to the 80s. Luckily I sold a good bit on the way up. Added again here at 87 to swing but ideally it would drop into the 70s like last time. The whole tiktok thing is really messing with it but I still think its rock solid long term.
DKNG is at an interesting level, think I am jumping in.
yeah going long with this one
Think it's getting beat up because of the covid issues circling NFL and college, plus NBA ending. MLB will be ending soon, too.
If cfb or NFL start seeing major game cancellations, it could tank hard with nothing to hold it up.
I’m waiting for a drop back to 75ish in Q4. Amazing support there
Had my worst day of day trading today. Went too large and sold too soon.
I break every damn rule I set for myself when I start red and trade heavy to get back to green. Just compounding my pain.
Cant not hate yourself for acting like a boob. I wasnt even trading good set-ups, just reckless.
consider switching to QQQM.
If you learn from it, it's just an expensive lesson
Grabbed a couple 10/23 48c. It set a pretty hard low between 44.8 and 45
I never do.
gordon bombay just an fyi...I know you went commons so it doesn't bother you. but I cut bait on my calls at even just in case
What's interesting is PENN was up today. Makes me think there is more to DKNG having a bad day than the idea of sports shutting down. The offering announcement last week din't help, mgmt selling shares. Selling puts could be the way to go here as long as you like it long term.
But mitch is going to give us a stim package next week I can feel it in the air.
They finally came through... I was on high alert all week because the VVIX kept gapping up each day and not going down. It's still a bit elevated. Pissed at myself for not scalping a few plays in there, but I had a feeling we were going to see some selling after that ridiculous rise. Still watching SPY 341 with max pain for OPEX under 340. SPX max pain is even lower under 3300, so don't get too relaxed tomorrow.
I was combing through some of the FSLY puts from this week. Somebody bought 1 $108 put yesterday right at the close for $5. Sold today at open for over $2000. So if your account ever becomes that dire, earnings plays are the hail mary.
You know that guy is mad too because he was thinking of buying three or four but he wasn't that confident
Yep it can be tough following rules you set for yourself. Still break them myself every now and then and of course it always bites you in the ass.
#1 lesson for me is always the sizing. It has roots in game theory, so it's not just something I'm spouting off from limited experience. It's the same principle that helped me make money playing poker. When you size appropriately, your decision making goes through the roof because you aren't psychologically fucking yourself over potential losses.
Important thing for you is to not compound the mistake by trying to make up for it all in next few trades. Chip away at the loss with a few smaller trades.
I'm convinced he had less than $10 in his account lol. I like to imagine it's some 15 year old Fortnite playing kid.
you wanna walk me through the reasons or am I gonna have to do some Googling/reading tonight?
Invesco, same company that created and manages QQQ, just released QQQM which is the same exact vehicle pound for pound as QQQ with lower expense fees. The downside is currently QQQM isn’t as liquid. So if you’re planning to sell covered calls or buy puts, you won’t have the same liquidity as QQQ (which is the second most liquid ETF for options behind SPY).
Essentially, if you’re a buy and holder for years, QQQM >. If you want to trade options against it, QQQ>.
Hmmm I own a good chunk of QQQ, I’d have to run the math to see if lowering the expense ratio by .05 is enough to eat the income taxes on converting to QQQm.
I’m not advocating for you to do that.
I’m advocating for you to do that going forward if you’re a buy and holder. But hey, it’s your money, do what you like.
appreciate it, good looking out as I was on the hunt for a QQQ like fund with lower expenses
356 is topside 1SD move for the week if this break of 350 holds.
Just picked my DKNG shares back up that i sold via assignment at 40 a few weeks ago. Seems to me like a bunch of reaction to covid popping up in CFB/NFL, but i dont see much changing for the long term outlook at that price. Also seems to have support at this range ... any techs out there agree?
I can't tell if that's a healthy rejection of 350 or just an OPEX move. Will have to dig into the options later tonight. But personally got smoked today gambling on 0DTEs on BA calls. Knew the risk but let the headlines they dropped this morning cloud my judgment. Thought I got a sick bid 10 minutes into the session but they sold it off quick and I realized that it was going to be another max pain pin on a Friday. They did this with BA the last two weeks as well, so I understood what it was but still a sick setup where they pumped it up 5% overnight. It's gross because I was planning on taking today's open to about $170 yesterday after close. Did not anticipate the massive gap-up. If I took it at close yesterday instead, I'm looking at an 8-bagger at open.
Oh dear. Just saw 10M SPY shares get dumped after hours. This is not good. Really hope that was a last ditch OPEX move. Happened minutes before options settled.
I'm seeing up AH?
It's a $1.5 red bar down with 10M volume on my screen (5-minute chart). No follow through though, so it does look like somebody really wanted to drop that SPY price before options settled.
dropped SPY to 346 or there abouts. That does not seem like a lot for a 10M sale
Right, volume completely died off after that as well. So looks like somebody had a battle over an OPEX move. Still a bit confused as to which direction we are headed with the election so close.
I got burned so hard scalping the last three days. Just absolute reckless trading. Lost most, if not all, of my scalping profits from the last month.
I'm just an idiot for not thinking through my play today more clearly. I had a solid plan devised since yesterday afternoon with price targets in and out and when BA gapped up this morning when I woke up, it was like I had to develop a completely new plan that I did not think about much. Knew BA max pain was right around $170 and just let the headlines get to me, which I know is a cardinal sin. So I'm right there with ya pissed off going into the weekend.
Q: 401k leftover funds from old job
Hey yall, Im pretty financially illiterate (trying to learn the confusing world of investing, slow process). Trying to make up for lost time here, I paid zero attention to this stuff in my 20s and am trying to make up for lost time.
I have $5.5K left over from an old employer’s 401K and trying to decide what to do with it. It’s in a Fidelity account. Im 31. Not a huge amount, but I want to put this money somewhere I can set & forget it (I dont have the technical knowledge or time to trade stocks).
My options are:
1. Invest the money in my new employer’s 401K. They dont provide employer match, so this option’s out.
2. Invest in an active mutual fund that I have going, geared for retirement. My dad turned this account with $5K over to me at age 25, and its grown to about $13K after a few years.
3 .Open a Roth IRA. This is what was recommended to me by HR from my previous job. Not familiar with these, but would be good to have this in retirement I guess.
4. Give it to a portfolio / investment manager (?) Someone proven at growing investments hopefully.
What would you do w/ the $$?
Are they requiring you to move it? I thought over $5k you could keep it there. Leaving it there would depend on fees and such but could be an option as well.
The “right” answer low or no expense load index fund.
With 5k, I might think about putting in Amazon (my preference) or another solid growth company and concentrate the bet. If you are really trying to make up for lost time, which doesn’t usually work out in wealth creation, taking more risk and 5k turning into 20k over the next 3-4 years and then putting that into an index fund will elevate your trajectory significantly.
Index funds in a Roth
If it's in a 401k, wouldn't he have to liquidate it and pay taxes and penalties to get it into a Roth? Which definitely wouldn't be the way to go.
My largest 401k is from an old job that I've just left at Fidelity. I've gone round and round about what to do with it as well and I think I'll just leave it there. They have solid funds in my plan and converting to an ira would lose some flexibility with loans if I'd ever need it.
Yeah really depends on the funds in his 401k. If he had some good low expense index funds no reason to move it. If not just rollover into an IRA or his current employers 401k (if there are good funds there). Current employer 401k match doesn’t matter with regards to this money. Only thing that matters is the fund options.
Yes, but I wonder if it’s a Roth 401k if that’s what the previous employer recommended
im pretty sure if you do a 401k to roth ira conversion (assuming its not a roth 401k), you just pay income taxes since you're making it into a post-tax account
i did one but it was many years ago
First, was this pretax or Roth contributions in your 401k? If Roth, I would roll into a Roth IRA and invest in passive index funds as suggested above. If it's pretax, you can roll it into your new 401k if it has low fees and good index options, or roll it into a traditional IRA and invest in passive index funds (S&P 500 or Total Stock, for example). No employer matching doesn't matter on rolling an old 401k into a new 401k. Since you are admittedly not financially savvy, you probably won't be doing backdoor roths, so having a rollover traditional IRA probably won't cause any issues. Those are my 2 cents.
Just because he isn’t financially savvy now doesn’t mean he may not need to do a backdoor in the future. Would be interested to know what his old and current 401k fund options are.
hood b. goode
What everyone else is saying here makes sense, but don't let paying taxes scare you. Paying taxes on $5,000 now (which you would have to do if you converted a traditional 401k to a Roth IRA) is most likely more palatable than paying taxes on distributions from whatever the account balance ends up being in 35 or so years (which you would have to do if you left it in a traditional 401k/IRA). It's hard to predict tax rates that far into the future, but with trillions of dollars of deficit spending incurred in 2020 alone (on top of years and years of deficit spending), it's hard to see tax rates going anywhere but up. Since the Bush tax cuts, we've been in an anomaly of tax rates compared to the history of the income tax, so history says rates will be higher as well. Rates will probably go up and down a few times between now and then, so whether the tax rates are higher/lower when you start taking distributions compared to now could just be a coin flip.
This x 1000. Not sure why it is so hard to convince people that it's likely rates are higher in the future, but everyone seems convinced we'll never go back to older rates or get closer to rates used in other first world countries. Our debt is insane.
If you're wondering why the red, VIX options expire Wednesday and the put/call ratio is at a historic level. Massive put positions being held under 29 level. Anticipate a higher VIX through Wednesday trading unless we see a ton of positions closed out. Not a crash, just consistent manipulation of the VIX levels.