Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. C A N E

    C A N E Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami Heat

    I just put my travel funds in there, but yeah.
     
    kinghill likes this.
  2. Jimmy the Saint

    Jimmy the Saint The future is a benevolent black hole
    Donor
    Penn State Nittany LionsGreen Bay PackersChelseaHartford WhalersPhoenix Rising

    I've had my emergency fund at Ally since I started keeping one. They may not be the highest but they are rarely far off and usually keep pace with rate changes, for better or worse, consistently. Would have to be a fairly significant difference rate difference to get me to move it.
     
    kinghill likes this.
  3. RockHardJawn39

    RockHardJawn39 #FranklinOUT
    Donor
    Penn State Nittany LionsSan Francisco GiantsPhiladelphia 76'ersPhiladelphia FlyersLiverpoolWrexham AFC

    Did jorge ever tell you about the Bank of the Internet?
     
  4. Jimmy the Saint

    Jimmy the Saint The future is a benevolent black hole
    Donor
    Penn State Nittany LionsGreen Bay PackersChelseaHartford WhalersPhoenix Rising

    No but he told me I should put it all in Luna.
     
    Tug and RockHardJawn39 like this.
  5. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Prom pic
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsFlorida PanthersDetroit TigersMiami Heat

    Recession is coming. The same people that have their head in the sand about inflation also quote the same stuff as to why economy is doing well. Microsoft and target coming out and saying we need to make revisions to earnings isn’t isolated to those two companies.

    The fed literally has to force a recession.
     
    Whammy and Tug like this.
  6. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    I'll never understand the certainty people have

    Economy still very healthy, could we end up in a recession? Maybe but that's a tough call right now unless you're operating more off ideology than substance.

    Also when, is it mid next year? Late next year? Trying to gauge where the market is then vs now also tough.
     
    LeonardWashington likes this.
  7. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    Invest your money when you have it available to invest. Anything else is gambling.
     
  8. dukebuckeye

    dukebuckeye P.G.I.T
    Donor TMB OG
    Ohio State BuckeyesCleveland BrownsColumbus Blue JacketsCleveland CavaliersCleveland Indians

    This has been my strategy since last November. Keep putting money into the market...understanding that it's disappearing as quick as I put it in, but I just keep my head down knowing that acquiring more and more shares now will eventually prove to be beneficial when the market comes back in a few years.
     
  9. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Prom pic
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsFlorida PanthersDetroit TigersMiami Heat

    We may very well be in one right now. I don’t think it’s here right now, because the airport is packed. But it’s coming this year imo. We haven’t seen QT in a while. Someone had a stat. The rule of 10. When 30 year and gas equal 10, a recession is inevitable. Gas isn’t coming down this year and I don’t see the catalyst for the 30 year coming down.

    And I’m not arguing your second point. DCA is always a great strategy if you don’t need the money this year. I do the same. But If you do need the money this year, take your losses. The next leg up isn’t worth the risk of the next leg down. Nor is it worth the mental stress.

    But I don’t see a 2008 or 2020 if someone is trying to extrapolate that. I just think a natural cool down is coming this year.
     
  10. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    DCA is dumb emotional hedge but is net negative.

    Also the rule of 30 stuff is dumb. There's zero evidence we're currently in a recession.
     
    All_Luck, Joystick Izzy and Jimmy Mac like this.
  11. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    Shouldn't be investing anything in the stock market that you need in the short term
     
  12. kinghill

    kinghill Cool American Flavour
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami MarlinsMiami DolphinsMiami HeatPoker

    Try and stop me bro I need them gainz
     
    Goose, BigReff73, Doc Louis and 8 others like this.
  13. Jimmy Mac

    Jimmy Mac I can’t dance but I can throw the pill
    Donor
    Cincinnati RedsChicago BullsChicago BearsSan Diego Padres

    This…

    If you didn’t know the numbers and just looked around you’d think the market was rocking and rolling. I’m middle middle class and all of my co workers are still buying shit like there’s no tomorrow and taking days off for low production, unpaid.
     
  14. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Prom pic
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsFlorida PanthersDetroit TigersMiami Heat

    Taking days off is a sign the economy is rockin and rolling? Did you forget all the days people accumulated for two years. Such a strange argument.

    The wealth effect gave people false confidence. The stock market was up and housing was boom. The stock market has retraced and housing is about to flatten out. Mortgages are at a 22 year low. If it weren’t for institutional investors paying cash, housing would be retracing now too.
     
  15. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Prom pic
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsFlorida PanthersDetroit TigersMiami Heat

    Funny guy. Post above says how can anyone say anything with certainty. Then says unequivocally there’s zero evidence.

    Give it to me. Do we make it out of 2022 without a recession?
     
  16. Jimmy Mac

    Jimmy Mac I can’t dance but I can throw the pill
    Donor
    Cincinnati RedsChicago BullsChicago BearsSan Diego Padres

    You must have missed the part where I said “unpaid”. Buying massive amounts of shit on 32 hours pay instead of 40 is a sign to me the economy is doing well. But you spin it how you need it to look.
     
    #27666 Jimmy Mac, Jun 10, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2022
  17. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    yes prognosticating forward and talking about this exact moment is the divide there. you can look at all the indicators now to draw strong conclusions such as its obvious we aren't in a recession, but trying to guess where things go over the next 6-18 months is rolling dice.

    dunno and it doesn't really matter from an investing standpoint, but right now having a recession in 2022 is unlikely. 2023 is where the picture gets murkier.
     
  18. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
    Atlanta BravesCarolina PanthersWofford TerriersUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpoolCharlotte FC

    Attention every one, he didn’t actually say “problem solved everybody. Mission accomplished”. Please only quote exact words when referencing the poster who walks on internet water.
     
    NothingIsOT, Arliden and Ty Webb like this.
  19. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    you can actually make a claim about something vs just whinging
     
  20. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor



    really need to keep increasing housing supply
     
    Anison, All_Luck and shawnoc like this.
  21. The Guglia

    The Guglia I Work in the City, and I Work Long Hours.
    Donor
    Clemson TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksAtlanta FalconsNew York RangersAtlanta United

    What indicators are we looking at?
     
  22. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
    Atlanta BravesCarolina PanthersWofford TerriersUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpoolCharlotte FC

    you have explicitly said, in the last 30 minutes, that nobody can really know. So what worth does my claim have, especially to you? You just want somebody to put baseballs on a tee for you so you can keep swinging.

    Each week that goes by and more news and patterns develop I think we are headed for pretty deep waters. I don’t think the Fed can get wage growth and thus inflation under control without doing some severe damage to the economy and the Fed continues to say they will do that if it’s needed to stop inflation.
     
  23. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    unemployment not spiking up despite rate increases, still high levels of job openings, household and business finances are in good shape historically speaking (savings rate, wage gains, and profit margins respectively). profit margins coming down which is good, unemployment is showing signs of rising but it's very small so far.

    consumption rates still very high, peoples opinions of their own financial situation is at record levels, on and on.

    just hard to find too much ominous about the broader economy to state we're in a recession right now from the amateur side, obviously know you might have other thoughts that I'd enjoy hearing.
     
    All_Luck, Doc Louis, C A N E and 2 others like this.
  24. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    my post is literally that the certainty with which people make claims about what's going to happen over the next two years is silly. a reasonable take I assumed but some people want to get mad.

    I also don't disagree that a soft landing isn't the most likely outcome right now, but again, things change.
     
  25. The Guglia

    The Guglia I Work in the City, and I Work Long Hours.
    Donor
    Clemson TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksAtlanta FalconsNew York RangersAtlanta United

    I will add that Barry’s Bootcamp and Omakase bars are packed.
     
  26. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Prom pic
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsFlorida PanthersDetroit TigersMiami Heat

    I really don't know what you're talking about without more context? are these contractors? I don't need to spin anything. you're the one throwing out vague anecdotes and extrapolating.

    I don't question we've enjoyed a YOLO lifestyle for a few months. I don't think the good times keep running. I chose to believe Target and Walmart both coming out in the last week and saying "we bought too much inventory, we got to liquidate some of it" over historical anecdotes from months ago.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/07/target-markdowns-plan-to-cut-inventory.html
     
  27. Arrec Bardwin

    Arrec Bardwin He ain’t me, he can’t be me
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsChelseaAtlanta United

    I know this is a lie because he would have told you to put it all in BEAN
     
    Whammy and Tug like this.
  28. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    bullwhip effect on supply/demand is actually a bullish indicator on soft landing btw
     
    All_Luck and TAXTAXTAX like this.
  29. Jimmy Mac

    Jimmy Mac I can’t dance but I can throw the pill
    Donor
    Cincinnati RedsChicago BullsChicago BearsSan Diego Padres

    Automotive manufacturing, 26 years experience. I was here during 2000, 2008, trust me this is very different.

    You sort of explained the “too much inventory” claim by Walmart and Target with your YOLO lifestyle comment. Everyone went hog wild spending money, the retail stores ordered massive amounts of shit, and now the sales have cooled and they’re stuck with the inventory. Doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is coming.


    And I’m not a college educated financial guy like y’all so I don’t know what the numbers say. I do work with middle class people everyday but that probably doesn’t account for much…
     
  30. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Prom pic
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsFlorida PanthersDetroit TigersMiami Heat

    Explain that one to me. What do the Twitter articles say?
     
  31. The Guglia

    The Guglia I Work in the City, and I Work Long Hours.
    Donor
    Clemson TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksAtlanta FalconsNew York RangersAtlanta United

    Please explain to me how reading things and accumulating knowledge is bad?
     
    Whammy likes this.
  32. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Prom pic
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsFlorida PanthersDetroit TigersMiami Heat

    there's nothing bad about it.

    it's just a funny jab at someone who's well known for giving them.
     
  33. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    It causes deflationary pressure
     
  34. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    It's always a bizarre attempted burn
     
  35. The Guglia

    The Guglia I Work in the City, and I Work Long Hours.
    Donor
    Clemson TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksAtlanta FalconsNew York RangersAtlanta United

    Yes my younger brother has done this dim shtick all of our life basically

    Sushi index update: the line to get inside kazu nori to stand in another line a steady 30 people from at least 1:30p on
     
    Lyrtch likes this.
  36. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    This is the part that can lead us into a pickle, people believe the economy is strong and eventually we will drive out over the cliff and realized we’ve tightened too hard too fast into a cyclical slow down.

    Unemployment is a lagging indicator, housing, new orders and profits will be what to watch. Probably won’t really see anything till late fall. If we get a recession I think it will be more moderate, but expectations are for earnings growth to come in at 10% I don’t think we hit that.





    Also I find the consumer stuff BS, wages aren’t keeping pace with inflation, all the stimulus funds for the consumer have been blown through, businesses will have more difficulty getting financing cause rates has skyrocketed, so have mortgages. There is a reason consumer sentiment is in the garbage.





    I mean a recession is pretty impactful from an investing standpoint.

    I think it’s reasonable to be risk off when the Fed is telling you they want to considerably tighten financial conditions and this includes risk assets.
     
    #27686 Arliden, Jun 10, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2022
  37. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Again, the above may not come to fruition but that’s what makes a market. You place your bets depending on how you believe.

    I’m just not fighting the Fed until they change their tune.
     
  38. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    For a retail investor changing your risk profile based on the economy is a net negative play
     
    All_Luck, Joystick Izzy and Ty Webb like this.
  39. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Depends on the situation, for most maybe, but I think this time the Fed is being real direct about what it’s going to do and people should have stepped out of the way.
     
    Tug likes this.
  40. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    Riding it down and up is the best play based on history
     
    All_Luck and Joystick Izzy like this.
  41. Joystick Izzy

    Joystick Izzy Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Georgia BulldogsAtlanta BravesTennessee TitansNashville Predators

    It took me a while to really trust this. And then I saw a chart on the difference for every decade since 1930 if you simply missed the ten best days vs buying and holding the whole time. It’s insane. Timing the market is random dumb luck. DCA is fancy market timing, and loses 2/3 of the time. It’s so simple.
     
    dukebuckeye, Ty Webb, jcb-r and 5 others like this.
  42. Bo Pelinis

    Bo Pelinis Will Smith just smacked the shit outta me!
    Donor TMB OG
    Nebraska CornhuskersKansas City RoyalsKansas City ChiefsBig 8 Conference

    FR if you’re on a long enough time horizon timing the market is stupid and you absolutely will lose. Buy and hold and repeat.
     
  43. dukebuckeye

    dukebuckeye P.G.I.T
    Donor TMB OG
    Ohio State BuckeyesCleveland BrownsColumbus Blue JacketsCleveland CavaliersCleveland Indians

    We’re making history, fellas!









     
    Arliden and burnttatertot like this.
  44. kinghill

    kinghill Cool American Flavour
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami MarlinsMiami DolphinsMiami HeatPoker

  45. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
    Tampa Bay Lightning

    Can’t wait to discuss this year with my fellow poors in the soup kitchen line here very soon.
     
    dukebuckeye likes this.
  46. C A N E

    C A N E Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami Heat

    Stinky this morning.

    not gonna lie though, watching the crypto bros sweat is fun.
     
    NC Wolfpack likes this.
  47. theregionsitter

    theregionsitter Well-Known Member
    TMB OG
    Notre Dame Fighting IrishChicago White SoxIndianapolis ColtsColumbus Blue JacketsColumbus Crew

    Quick reminder to everyone sweating- the infrastructure spending hasn’t started yet and it’s going to be massive.
     
    All_Luck, Tug and IV like this.
  48. kinghill

    kinghill Cool American Flavour
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami MarlinsMiami DolphinsMiami HeatPoker

    please expand what does this mean

    thanks
     
  49. IV

    IV Freedom is the right of all sentient beings
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideUAB BlazersDemocratAvengersBirmingham LegionUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    Money pump into the economy with tangible asset creation
     
  50. The Blackfish

    The Blackfish The Fish in Black
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideIndianapolis Colts