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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.
which is why the 75 move was silly overreaction
Landing the plane safely
Just doing a quick nosedive before we level out on approach.
Great Reset ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
People need to start posting cliff notes to the tweets and graphs they post. It’s not fair to our dumber posters which is not me.
just ask questions to the ones you have if I post any
I print out the graphs and use them as TP for my bunghole
I too wish people would explain some of the things they post for our less informed posters. Not me clearly.
Reminder that zero hedge is really basic propaganda
You are supposed to buy when the prices are low though fwiw fyi
I mean I think part of that reaction in oil and gas is cause of that .75% and recession fears.
Don't have time to read. This is a sincere question: what are people suggesting be done instead of raising rates? This is not a defense of raising rates.
fiscal policy to address supply side problems where able
but also just not overreact with monetary policy to a global issue
I’m only headline reading but raising rates doesn’t “mainly affect wages” it affects everything all at once, it’s a blunt tool. It “mainly affects” borrowing costs across the board.
They can’t use fiscal policy to affected supply side problems because:
A) they aren’t in charge of fiscal policy only monetary policy
B) even if they were the supply side problems are in industries that don’t align with the current parties agenda, ie. stimulus support for building refineries that can process the light sweet crude we actually produce instead of foreign heavy crude like most of our refineries are built for. This would not fly with democrats.
lastly they don’t want inflation expectations to become built into consumer psyche and their only tools are monetary and their goal is to crush demand and force a recession.
Their mistake was not acting sooner and now they are left with few good options.
Not reading articles but firing off smh
I’ll read it later just busy at the moment, but nothing I fired off is untrue.
Why would acting sooner have made any difference? Raising rates will discourage investment in creating additional supply, which makes the supply crunch worse.
it’s all about rate of change, months of .25% increases are easier to swallow than .5% and .75% increases, also it would’ve tamped down demand sooner which means you likely wouldn’t have seen a 8.6% CPI print.
so easier to swallow with a smaller overall mountain to climb is the answer
It has also led to a period of extreme uncertainty, which creates illiquidity, which is ultimately what turns corrections/softenings into damaging recessions.
Right now the financial markets don’t know whether to price inflation (bad) or huge rate increases beyond here (bad) to stop inflation. So rather than price either which would hurt, but be manageable, markets are freezing. Credit is freezing. This is how crashes happen. I’m not saying we’re going to crash, but that’s how it happens.
The shitty but logical answer is that forcing a recession and working to make it short (which I think can be done) is a better long term solution than hoping that inflation will run its course or something. Shit in one hand, hope in the other and see which fills up first so to speak.
Ok I read it, most of my original comments still stand and I agree with this gent that it is mainly energy and it aligns with my belief that even after this potential recession we will still have an inflationary decade ahead due to energy capacity restrictions. I doubt we will be hitting the 8.6% levels like now without the stimulus check tail winds but I think once things get bad enough economically we will start using the fiscal tool again as well.
Best day my portfolio has had in awhile
Arliden you gotta change your Username because whenever I’m scrolling I glance at your name and for .3 seconds I keep thinking you’re an old ex-poster/probably still obsessive compulsive arguer Arkadin Defender Of The Shield
I forgot all about that guy, Arliden is just a character from a book I like.
You are now user Harry Potter. We are all happier.
coin flip now, was 30% chance over next two last I remember
30 + 20 = 55 nice try
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh damn. I'm sitting here calculating the current value of my series i bond and thinking it's off but now that makes sense... bolded part.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indi...nded semiannually,earned on the new principal
The interest is compounded semiannually. Every six months from the bond's issue date, interest the bond earned in the six previous months is added to the bond's principal value, creating a new principal value. Interest is then earned on the new principal.
You can cash the bond after 12 months. However, if you cash the bond before it is five years old, you lose the last three months of interest. Note: If you use TreasuryDirect or the Savings Bond Calculator to find the value of a bond less than five years old, the value displayed reflects the three-month penalty; that is, the amount of the penalty has been subtracted already.
This is a good thread.
Spoiler: Spoilered format for easier reading
If you need any inspiration to get them long term investment accounts poppin
Ally up from .9% to 1.0%
Today is precisely why you don’t time the market. Anyone holding cash is going to miss close to a 3% gain in a single freaking day.
5 months later…9/11.
I secretly hope the market depresses or flatlines for a couple years. I'd love to sit back, sell covered calls, and accumulate equities.
Well, not anymore.
And what about all the money that has been lost in the market over the last six months?
Those that buy aggressively now are gonna retire multi-millionaires vs millionaires.
My purchase this year may hit 75k this year, an artificial goal I’ve placed on myself from 2017
That’s the goal.
were you able to miss a 3% drop but catch the 3% gain?
That’s what I started doing a couple weeks back. Just keep rebuying every Monday with my previous week’s premiums.