The surface temp of the Gulf of Mexico is warm as fuck (typical temps for April ) and the system this Saturday could be trouble.
Had a tornado touch down about 3 miles from my house this morning, fast-moving line that was tornado warned at 9:17, warning canceled early at 920, then at 9:35 it popped back up with a hook on radar that you almost never see around here, and went through less than 10 minutes later. NWS already confirms it as an EF2. Damage was mostly contained to one street but it seemed but the winds were felt across a pretty large area. Getting all our pets in the bathroom to ride it out was an adventure. Thankfully no one was injured, one house was completely leveled, some lanais and pool cages collapsed, really lucky all things considered. I think a few of our people (not sure if ITT) here live in Seminole County, anyone have any damage, everyone ok?
Couple of 2024 retrospectives: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/media/year-in-review/ https://www.weather.gov/news/250703_tornado_activity
Being in a tornado sounds like the scariest environment imaginable. You have zero control. Just hunker down and hope for the best.
Certainly! Let's break it down: - 00Z 3km NAM: This refers to a specific weather model forecast. "00Z" indicates the model run time, which is 00:00 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time), or midnight UTC. "3km" refers to the resolution of the model, meaning the model makes predictions at a 3-kilometer grid spacing. This gives relatively high-resolution details for weather forecasting. "NAM" stands for the **North American Model**, which is a weather prediction model used to forecast weather over North America. - STP (Significant Tornado Parameter): The **Significant Tornado Parameter (STP)** is a measure used by meteorologists to assess the potential for significant tornado activity, particularly for strong, violent tornadoes (EF2 or greater). It is a composite index that takes into account several atmospheric factors, including wind shear, instability, and moisture, that are conducive to tornado formation. - STP of 10 at Birmingham at 11p Saturday: An STP value of 10 is considered very high, indicating a significant risk for strong tornadoes. This means that the model is forecasting an elevated risk of severe tornado activity in the area around **Birmingham, Alabama** at **11 PM on Saturday**. An STP of 10 suggests a strong likelihood of tornadoes forming, potentially with strong winds and significant damage, depending on the conditions. In summary, this forecast is indicating that the NAM model predicts a high potential for significant tornado activity around Birmingham, Alabama, on Saturday night, specifically at 11 PM, based on an STP value of 10.
It’s well documented on here that this stuff stresses me the frick out. I might have to take the blame for the consistent move into Nebraska, like 3 days ago we were in the clear and my fiancé was shocked to hear me say “oh it might not be too bad” which is the opposite of my normal 2-3 days of straight panic, so yeah my bad there. I’m nervous to even check the next update because the last few have expanded west each time. I can’t remember what the July storm looked like in comparison but it’s too early for me to be stressing about my roof blowing off…
The good news is the storms will be moving so fast that it’ll only be a few minutes of intense wind if one happens to move through Omaha
I was hoping that was the case, saw it was moving 50-55mph and should be a fairly thin line, so maybe it’s not even widespread until it gets past us. This will sound crazy but up until I bought a house 5-6 years ago I was a fairly normal midwesterner about storms, but that’s all changed so now any wind/hail forecast has me on edge the entire lead-up and I’m constantly refreshing forecasts like a psycho. Doesn’t help I approach life like I do my Husk fandom, just think of the worst possible scenario and hope it’s better than that lol
Not what I want to see/hear. I keep hoping one of these times these 3/5 or worse would completely fizzle out but hasn’t happened lately that I remember.
Well if you believe Rusty Dawkins he shared this future model with a storm moving through Lincoln. It’ll stay south of the Omaha metro and head into western Iowa.
Rusty is awesome, last year he started doing live YouTube streams and I pretty much watch those anytime something crazy is happening. The one I saw, I think from the other meteorologist at his station had those storms pushing north, putting Omaha on the edge of them. I usually follow this retired meteorologist in Omaha. I don’t have Facebook but read his posts probably too much. When I’m spiraling with anxiety my fiancé tells me I have to block his account lol I probably should before I cause medical issues. posts below are out of order
Last night - Light winds, sunshine, warm temps for dog walk. Perfect evening. This morning - Howling wind up to 50 mph and driving snow. Colorado is coloradoing spring style. Def prefer this to fires and big hail/naders though.
I have zero idea what I’m talking about but wondering if any of the storms popping up right now in SE Nebraska/NE Kansas could take some “energy” away from the main event later on.
pretty strong language ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. rest of the discussion, for those that may want to read it: Spoiler .Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado.
to clarify, they mention violent tornadoes...that means EF4/5 potential; it's not a subjective term with respect to tornadoes. Strong tornadoes = EF2+; Violent = EF4+
I was going to ask how often if ever a “high” risk doesn’t develop, but it appears sample size may be limited at least from the Day2 perspective. That seems like a large area too.
It’s possible but wouldn’t count on it especially if the sun comes out and heats up the atmosphere again in the next few hours
Apr 7, 2006: 91 tornado reports (these are reports, not the number of tornadoes): https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20060407 April 14, 2012: 153 tornado reports --> https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120414
Was actually surprised how warm it is (73) considering the skies are super grey and wind is limited in Omaha so far.