Realignment: The ACC enters the Suck Zone

sounds made up

 

Don't be a guy. Be a man.

 

MHver3: Heard things have gotten a little ugly today.
MHver3: Boren:if we don't expand the league to at least 12 and add network then OU will be searching for a new home for 2024
MHver3: Continues that he believes this exactly what UT is trying to do as well.
MHver3: UT saying they could always pursue an independent TV deal after current is up and probably fare better.
MHver3: But UT maintaining that they are concerned about the integrity and competitiveness of the conference.
MHver3: And that they want a strong B12 that will last for as long as college football is in its current format.
MHver3: Boren argues the point of spending millions on these studies to find out there is real value only to not do anything.
MHver3: UT offering up that a joint network with ACC can solve the network issues and then we can look into expansion.
MHver3: UT saying our content coupled with ACC markets could be big business.
MHver3: Also saying it could stabilize both leagues from future troubles.

 

MHver3: Baylor:

 

I'm amazed by the number of people who claim realignment is about more than money. Everyone left the b12 years ago because money, but conversely you have no chance of getting into another conference if you don't have a large tv population and academics on par with the rest of the conference. Nebraska to b1g was kind of a unique scenario because obviously we don't have a huge population, but our ratings in the state are super strong, and I think the fact that we have a ton of money (for athletic dept and academic facilities) is why the b1g overlooked our middle class academic rating.

Cliffs: realignment = rich get richer. If you are hoping your school can finally make it big by entering a new conference you are already fucked.

Also Texas still shitting all over the b12? so glad we got out when we did. So much happier in the b1g.

 

The Big 12 should be championing an 8-team playoff so they're virtually guaranteed a playoff team without having to add UTEP and Tulane or some shit.

 

If you have to ask, you can't afford it

 

It's hard to keep up with Boren and his constantly changing public stances

http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...crease-its-prestige-value-at-friday-meetings/

 

It's absurd to play a championship game if you have a round robin schedule

 

Brian Davis ‏@BDavisAAS 9m9 minutes ago
The general feeling here in Irving? Big 12 expansion is officially dead.

 

The only way this game would be interesting is if they keep it on campus and Texas plays at OU or vice versa.

 

They have to leave it open to keep Boren happy, right? If they don't, and OU leaves they're going to have to expand above 9. They'd just be expanding without OU.

 

Oklahoma: We demand expansion, a conference network, and a conference championship game!
Texas: No expansion without a network.
Oklahoma: Well then, let's get serious about a conference network.
Texas: Nah, we're good.
Oklahoma: C'mon, at least give us the conference championship game.
Texas: Sure, whatever. Not like we're getting there anytime soon.

 

OU will not be a wallflower, guys!

 

I understand why OU fans are frustrated, as are most.

But I really can't see a better situation for them. Be the big fish now, where you're in the geographic middle of a conference with traditional rivals and you've continually excelled, or becoming another team on the outskirts of whatever conference you choose, essentially run by school (fill in the blank) if you leave for (fill in the blank).

 

Matt Borcas
Staff Writer, The Ringer
5 hrs ago3 min read
The Big 12 Doesn’t Know How to Count

Spoiler

Getty Images

Of all the dumb things about the Big 12, the least dumb thing is that it’s called the Big 12 but has only 10 member schools. Sure, that’s dumb, but at least it’s understandable: “Big Ten” was already taken (by a conference with 14 schools, natch), so why not stick with tradition? But everything else about the Big 12 defies explanation, particularly as it relates to numbers. The Big 12 can’t count, you guys.

This became even more evident today, with the news that Big 12 presidents and chancellors unanimously voted to bring back a conference championship game starting in 2017. At first blush, this seems like a perfectly sensible move: The other power conferences all have one, and the game is expected to bring in between $20 million and $30 million, and the league’s lack of a title game likely cost it a spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff. But then it was revealed that the Big 12 is seriously considering keeping its round-robin scheduling format for the regular season even while splitting the conference into two five-team divisions, which sort of defeats the purpose of having a conference title game. What’s the point of a round-robin schedule if you have a conference championship game? Or vice versa? Clearly, the Big 12 forgot how few schools were in its own damn league.

Paul Myerberg ✔ @PaulMyerberg
The B12 logo should really be just a perplexed guy scratching his head.

2:07 PM - 3 Jun 2016

We get it: Math is hard, and it sure isn’t fun. But to survive in the fast-paced marketplace of college sports, it’s necessary. Fortunately, The Ringer is here to help. Below is a semicomprehensive list of numbers, complete with corresponding real-world examples that relate to the Big 12’s recent conundrums and questionable decisions. If this doesn’t teach the conference’s leaders how to count, nothing will.

Zero: National champions the Big 12 has had in football over the past decade.

Zero: Conferencewide TV networks.

One: Team-specific TV network.

One: “True champion” the Big 12 advertises in its slogan.

Two: “True champions” the Big 12 actually had in 2014 (TCU and Baylor, neither of which qualified for the College Football Playoff, largely due to the lack of a conference title game).

Two: Networks that will take turns airing the Big 12 title game.

Three: Member schools with an interim president (Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Baylor).

10: Teams in the conference in 2016.

12: Teams in the conference in 2010, before the departures of Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M, and the addition of TCU and West Virginia.

16: Possible teams in the conference in 2018 (UConn, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, USF, and Colorado State have all been rumored as potential additions).

20: Points that Oklahoma lost to Clemson by in last year’s Orange Bowl.

2.5 million: Dollars that Big 12 commish Bob Bowlsby makes per year, $2.5 million more than the conference’s highest-paid football player.

304 million: Dollars in revenue the Big 12 distributed this year. The lesson: No matter how incompetent college sports conferences are, they can’t help but fall into giant piles of money.

https://theringer.com/big-12-conference-by-the-numbers-college-football-3e4aba9c57fc#.93x1hnpel

 

four: the amount of minutes i'll never get back from my life by reading that "article"

 

The Big Ten chose Nebraska because of your strong Midwestern values. There millions of TV viewers were an afterthought.

 

Also, Iowa was getting cocky about all of their corn. We need Nebraska to keep them in check.

 

Yeah, I'm laughing at these fools that think realignment is about TV money instead of locking up the nation's grain supply. They're going to laugh when we expand into Canada until they realize that the Great Lakes contain 20% of the Earth's supply of fresh water.

Everyone is playing checkers while Jim Delany is playing Risk.

 

Texas is gonna go to the ACC

I just wish there were a way for EMAW to come with them so I could be conference bros with Name P. Redacted

 

Texas already bitches about travel to West Virginia. They're not going to join an all eastern time zone conference where the closest opponent is 800 miles away.

 

I think any school being the new guy to a conference doesn't swing as big a stick as they would on their home turf. The Big Ten does what Michigan and Ohio State want to do, and OU, despite all its history, wouldn't change that.

 

I'm not sure Michigan and Ohio State swing their dicks in the Big Ten. Michigan couldn't even get Delaney to support satellite camps, and was so thrilled with Nebraska joining the conference we got them kicked out of the American Association of Universities.

 

Michigan's president and athletics director have been in office for a combined 3 years. We have tiny dicks. Delany won't even let us hire townies to ref our own games anymore.

 

That seems like a fairly large swing of a dick to me imo

 

I think maybe we're a bigger deal nationally than we are to our conference athletic leadership. Certainly academically.

 

http://big12fanatics.com/big-12-meetings-wrap-up/


This has been a strange few months. We’ve gone from it looking like the Big 12 is at each other’s necks to them holding hands and singing campfire songs together. Even the sports media world reflected on the Big 12 meetings last week as if they were doing an unexpected victory lap. The narrative has changed so much, so fast, that I’m actually a bit suspicious of some of the messages we’ve been receiving.

Let’s start off with the big news of the week, the Big 12 announced they are distributing $304M to its ten members and both West Virginia and TCU completely bought in as full members. It may feel like it has been a while, since it is the fourth year, but keep in mind that both teams were making around $9 million prior to joining the Big 12, that’s only a 233% increase. Additionally, the Big Ten announced its revenue this spring as well and Nebraska was still making 60% of the original Big Ten schools, or around $19 million. In that regard, West Virginia and TCU’s “buy ins” look speedy by comparison.

The Big 12’s announcement rattled up a lot of the media because, over the month of May, most had forecasted the Big 12 would be making around $23 million. This led to numerous articles stating the Big 12 was $9 million behind the SEC, was unstable, and disadvantaged. As late as the beginning of last week the standard message was the Big 12 was the lowest earning conference of the Power Five.
However, with the Big 12’s announcement of $30.4M per school, with no schools having a buy-in left, that talking point is debunked. In reality, the Big 12 is currently 7% lower than the SEC, the Power Five leader, in payouts this year. That’s nearly a rounding error. Considering that none of these contracts are lined up the same, involve games that are not always played every year, and they escalate on different terms you’ll never have two conferences pay out exactly the same in any given year.

That seven percent or $2.3 million, also doesn’t factor in the revenue each Big 12 school makes by selling what is called, “member controlled rights”. All of the other Power Five conferences monetize all of their inventory. The Big 12 leaves one football game, about five men’s basketball games, and a host of women’s basketball and Olympic sports for each school to do with what they want. While this isn’t paid to the school from the conference, it is revenue from the same inventory the other conferences sell. Not counting it exaggerates any difference. And it does matter. Even if a Big 12 school only makes $1-3 million from those rights, it makes everything even more in line with the Big Ten and SEC. Additionally, the big three brands in the Big 12, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, make more than $5 million on their rights, which eclipses the other conferences. So, the story for the Big 12 will always be; some teams make more than the SEC and Big Ten and some make a little less. Considering the difference we’re talking about works out to be a tiny fraction of the total athletic revenue of most of these schools, it really isn’t that big of a deal. Within the Big Ten you have Purdue who loses money on football and Michigan who made over $80 million. Now that’s a difference that matters.

That being said, there is a difference in media value between the Big Ten, the SEC and the Big 12. Contrary to most opinions, however, it isn’t because of a conference network. The Big 12 has the most games per team on standard channels than any other power conference. In essence, Fox Sports 1 is the Big 12’s network. Where it is lagging behind, however, is their Tier One contract.

When everything was renegotiated to match both deals to 2024 the Tier One deal was mostly just extended, instead of revalued like the SEC did and the Big Ten is doing now. Tier One games are big deals, they nearly generate as much money in one game as a school will make from three games in a conference network. I’m making these numbers up for an example, but when everyone else is making $6 million per Tier One game and your old contract is only paying $4 million, well, it doesn’t take many games to start creating a real difference.

The Big 12 though has been slightly isolated in this due to the fact that it has ten members, instead of fourteen like the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC. In this year’s $304 million payout, 45%, or $135 million of it came from non-media revenues. Most of this is from the playoffs and the Sugar Bowl, but it also includes items like NCAA payments and bowl games. Of the $30.4 million each Big 12 team received, $13.5 of it came from this category. The other conferences make about the same amount of money off this segment as well, but with 14 teams they only pay out $9.4 million per team. That $4 million difference is very important, as we’ll see in a bit.

Either way, as it currently sits, the Big 12 is in a strong media position for the remainder of this contract, but it may be positioning to grow even stronger.

This is the topic du jour that we can finally lay to rest. To continue the metaphor, BHV’s presentation put the final nail in the coffin on the concept of a traditional conference network, like the SEC Network or the Pac 12 Network. Not only is the industry starting to shift from watching games at home to watching it via mobile devices, but the cost required to even start a network is prohibitive. In short, for what you have to give up it is too much of a risk.

Additionally, you need a lot of inventory to feed the network beast. That’s a lot of inventory that the Big 12 just doesn’t have. As one network executive said, “ten games does not make a network”, when referring to how many football games the Big 12 had unsold in its member controlled rights. The Pac 12 gives up two games per school and the SEC and Big Ten teams give up three games per school on average. The 39-45 games the SEC and Big Ten provide their networks is nearly the same as all of Big 12’s games.

At that volume the exposure generated from the networks isn’t even. The biggest argument within the SEC as of late revolved around who was featured more and last year within the Big Ten, Wisconsin had five of its games on BTN while Michigan State only had one. Considering the conferences are being branded more than the teams, this is providing headaches that are only mitigated by revenue at the moment.

All of these add up to the Big 12 having issues with the network, especially considering the only way to build one was to expand with teams that brought value with their inventory, not just brought inventory. In order to provide as much inventory as the SEC and Big Ten, not only would the Big 12 have had to expand by four teams, but they’d also have to move games over from their current media deal, which reduces the amount they are paid. In order to break even with their current contract they’d need to have a massive success right out of the gates, which is unlikely with the current state of the industry.

In the end any idea of a traditional network is dead, but the conference is watching for future streaming options. The thought process being you need less of a market for apps than you do with a cable channel and a lot less overhead. Several universities already sell their digital rights for around $10 a month. A conference sponsored streaming app at $3 a month provides $180 million in revenue with five million users. You could have less of a subscription and less users and still make more than the Big 12 was looking to gain off a traditional network.



It’s in this area where things start to get a little crazy. And, maybe “a little” is being too generous. The implications of what was said at the Big 12 press conference put conference expansion into an entirely new light. Let’s review some of the larger talking points:

• After the winter meetings President Boren started talking to anyone who would listen about how the Big 12 was “psychologically disadvantaged” and needed to expand and gain a network or fall behind. It grew to the point where the entire state of Oklahoma was prepared to join the Sunbelt just to get away.
• Reports start to circulate that the Big Ten and Fox are close to a deal for half of its inventory for a whopping $250 million a year.
• A bit later Bowlsby mused that the Big 12 could be as much as $20 million behind the Big Ten and SEC by the end of the current contract, which amounts to $200 million per year in Big 12 revenue.
• At the beginning of the past week, CBS reported that expansion for the Big 12 was worth about $250 million per team added through the end of the contract.
• In the same CBS report it was repeated that the reason for this is the Big 12 negotiated within their contracts that in the event they expanded each team added would be paid the same as the rest, e.g. pro rata increases.
• The SportsBusiness Daily reported that, of the $2.5 billion deal the Big 12 has, $1.3 billion comes from ESPN and $1.2 billion comes from Fox.
• After the Big 12 meetings, Dennis Dodd from CBS released an article speculating that the Big 12’s expansion plans could affect the Big Ten’s negotiations with Fox and ESPN due to the pro rata increases.
• Additionally, now after the meetings, all of the parties within the Big 12 are acting in unison, are happy they are not looking at a Big 12 Network and President Boren, who started the expansion talk, put a lid on it by adding the Big 12 isn’t interested in adding “mediocre” members.

Now, to start, the pro rata increases are not something standard in a media contract, its special. The Big Ten didn’t have them in its deal with ESPN, which is why Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers all have six year buy-ins. The only reason they exist is because the combination of Texas and Oklahoma in the Big 12 is powerful enough to leverage adding anyone to play them. This is actually a major risk for the networks and it is astonishing that Texas and Oklahoma hold that sort of sway.

The risk becomes clear when you consider how expensive it could become for the Big 12’s network partners at a time when ESPN is losing money and Fox is in desperate need of viewers. I’m leery of the rumors surrounding Big Ten’s possible contract with Fox for 25% more revenue than the Big 12 makes on half the inventory. It, simply, just isn’t worth that much more than the Big 12 and SEC. I’ll have media analysis’ for each conference coming out soon that details it more. However, it sounds like a planted leak by Fox to scare ESPN and the other networks out of the negotiation. Something like $250 million for the entire package or large chunk of the package sounds more in line with reality and even that is a 50% increase over what the Big Ten would be paid if they just extended the current contract for six years with escalation. If it is for half of the inventory that means the Big Ten is now worth more than the Big 12 and SEC, combined. That smells fishy.

However, if that is how much it is going to be paid for the rights to what amounts to about 25 football and 50 men’s basketball games, then if the Big 12 expands it could cause some serious issues within this negotiation. Expanding to fourteen would increase the Big 12’s revenue from its media partners by $92 million today, but in 2024 that would surge to $176 million more in that year alone. That means if the Big 12 added four teams, it would cost the Big 12’s partners over half of what they would have to shell out to the Big Ten for their deals. That is enough to either scare a partner away from doing a deal with the Big Ten or raising the rights fees for multiple conferences if the Big 12 opens a negotiation with ESPN and Fox after the Big Ten secures its final deal for 2017. And if the Big Ten and the Big 12 are getting paid more you can guarantee that the SEC will be having a conversation with ESPN about matching these increases.

All of a sudden, due to the Big 12 adding four teams that are currently paid about $12 million a year, ESPN and Fox could be out multiple billions in additional rights fees to college sports at a time when there isn’t a lot of extra money lying around to fund these increases.

What is even more interesting about this is that the Big 12 schools would trigger all of this without really earning any additional revenue. As mentioned earlier, 45% of the conferences revenue comes from outside this media deal. What would happen if they expanded to 14 is that the 55% in the media contract would stay the same on a per team basis (e.g. pro rata) but the 45% of revenue outside the media deal would decrease by 28% due to being split between more teams. If that’s the case, why does expansion make any sense?

The fact is, it doesn’t. And that’s why you saw a unified message within the Big 12 brass after these meetings stating there isn’t any one strong enough to warrant expansion. However, they’re going to keep “looking at it”. My guess is they will look at it and keep it in the public eye until at least 2017, when the Big Ten’s deals are done. The end result may not be any expansion at all, but the Big 12 being able to leverage not expanding with their partners to earn higher revenues. It may be cheaper for Fox and ESPN to pay more money to the current ten team conference to remove the pro rata language, than add four less valuable properties and lose billions.

And, if the Big 12 is on a steeper revenue curve for the final eight years, while the ACC falls further behind, then the Big 12 could be in a solid position of strength to expand with bigger brands in 2023-24, when most Grant of Rights only have a couple years left on them.

Keep an eye on how the Big 12 talks about expansion and how information leaks about the Big Ten’s next potential deal. If expansion just never seems to go away or the Big 12 starts beating the expansion drum around the time the Big Ten is negotiating, then something is in play within the Big 12’s network negotiations. It seems entirely likely now that all of the talk Boren and the rest of the Big 12 have made earlier this year about the Big 12 expanding and the chaos surrounding it is merely a ruse to negotiate a higher rights deal with its current partners.

Why pay Memphis, Cincinnati, Temple, and Tulane 660% more than they are paid now, when you can just pay the Big 12 $80 million more a year not to expand?



Lastly, the first bit of news to come out of the meetings was the easiest to examine. Starting in 2017 the Big 12 will host a conference championship game in football with Fox broadcasting it in odd years and ESPN broadcasts it in even. The current media contract already has a fixture for adding the game and it is rumored to pay out between $27-28 million a year when it starts, escalating for the final eight years of the contract. This would add an additional 9-10% in revenue, not including any location deals set up to host the event, which will likely rotate between Dallas, Houston and Kansas City.

The reason for the additional game is simple, Navigate presented information that stated it increased the odds the Big 12 champion will be picked for the college football playoffs. It is worth a ton to the conference in exposure on multiple fronts. No bowl games have the viewership that the semifinals and championship games receive, winning a championship gives instant credibility to the conference, and each team positioned in the playoffs moves the rest of the bowl eligible teams up one notch. For example, if Oklahoma didn’t get into the playoffs this year, they would have played in the Sugar Bowl, then Oklahoma State would have played in the Russell Athletic Bowl and Baylor would have moved down from there. When someone plays in the playoffs, all of the other teams are elevated into bigger bowls. This is all about conference branding.

All of that is worth the risk of a playoff bound team being knocked out of the running with a conference champion loss. However there are multiple ways to minimize that impact, specifically how you design the divisions.

Normally we think of divisions geographically, but when you’re already playing a round robin there is no need to worry about that. Instead you can change your divisions yearly so the best teams the year before are split into different divisions. As Randy Peterson wrote in the Des Moines Register, you could either do an even odd split from the final standings the year before or you can break it up more like a bracket, where 1/4/6/7/10 are in one division and 2/3/5/8/9 are in the other. This way you limit the times that you have a 12-0 team come out of one division and an 8-4 come out of the other. The greater the chance that you place the two best teams into the championship game the greater the chance that whoever wins will be seeded into the playoffs.

Additionally, it also allows the Big 12 to move to an eight game schedule if you take out the round robin. You would have six less conference games to sell, but there could be a solution for that. Everyone wants to play in Texas. So you drop to eight conference games and work out three early season featured out of conference match ups with each of the network partners. Fox could set up games against the Big Ten and Pac 12, while ESPN could set up games with the SEC and ACC. Place them within Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Kansas City, and maybe Pittsburgh or D.C. over the first two weeks and you will make up the value of those conference games while adding massive exposure contests at the start of the season.

And you can do all this without expansion. Matter a fact, you can be as creative as you want if you remain at ten and possibly monetize it aggressively in the process.

This is shaping up to be a very interesting 2016-17 season and it hasn’t even started.

 

tl;dr

But the ACC hasn't announced 2015-16 revenue #s

 

Is Maryland and Rutgers only getting $19 million from B1G also? I can't imagine making $10 million a year less that Iowa state or Baylor

 

poor us, whatever shall we do