Week 7 College Football

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Debose4Heisman, Oct 7, 2012.

  1. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Wrong Team favored Plays:

    Kent State +1.5
    Western Michigan +1.5
    Maryland +3
    TCU +6.5 (No Play with Pachall)
    South Carolina +3
     
  2. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    South Carolina playing at LSU is a tough one for me. I think they are playing better at the moment but playing LSU on the road is tough. I also am very weary of picking teams who just came off a huge win the last week. LSU still played great defense but Florida had 20 more snaps on offense. I'll stay away at the moment and hopefully convince myself to stay away.

    TCU seems like a solid play. Terrible offense even with Pachall now without him it's even worse. I like that pick a lot.
     
  3. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Sorry meant without Pachall.
     
  4. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Can't believe we are already at Week 7. Sort of depressing.

    Can't believe LSU line is that low IMO. I think LSU wins by 7-10. The public is going to back USCe and I think its an overreaction from this past weekend. South Carolina is a much different road team and LSU is a much different home team at night in big games. I think there's tons of value in LSU -3. Buy low/sell high. South Carolina's is at its peak record wise and ranking wise in school history. Think this is a bad bad spot for them.

    Other stuff I like:

    VT -9.5
    BYU -2.5 (unranked team favored over ranked team ala Penn State/NW)
    Vandy +8 (Vandy is a good home team is building some momentum and UF's public perception is at its peak. Game sandwiched between LSU game and big showdown with USCe next weekend).

    http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/college-football/
     
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  5. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    I agree. I think by the end of the, it will be a Pick'Em.

    Not a big fan of the play but wanted to post all those plays.
     
  6. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    The biggest differences in my numbers and Vegas Numbers are

    Arizona State -22 (I have them -30.95)
    Kent State +1.5 (I have them -5.57)
    UAB +13.5 (I have them +6.67)
    Rutgers -7.5 (I have them -14.06)
    Toledo -13.5 (I have them -20.39)
    Boston College +28 (I have them +20.99)
    Florida -9 (I have them -17.36)
    TCU +6.5 (I have them -0.51)
    Kentucky +17 (I have them +9.97)
     
  7. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    #23 Wisconsin a pickem at Purdue who just got prison sexed by Michigan?

    Hmmmm. Feels dirty.
     
  8. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    UAB is actually a solid team this year. I really think they will be decent in the C-USA this year. They hung with a damn good South Carolina team for a half and shot themselves in the foot with a fumble return for a touchdown to finish them off. Then they hung with Ohio State on the road for the entire game and had multiple opportunities to take the lead in the second half as well. Missed field goals, etc. They should be able to win more games than usual in the C-USA. They've gotten solid QB play this year. Plus McGee is a solid coach. Add in the fact Houston hasn't been the same this year as usual, I think they are being overvalued because of their offensive production the past few years.

    Florida seems like a no brainer. Maybe too good to be true and time for a let down game going on the road to a Vandy team they should rout. Still, Florida should be able to just ground and pound them all game. They've got a very good defense and their running game is legit. Vandy usually struggles against QBs who can run the ball as well as pass. Vandy is being overvalued IMO because of their game with Missouri. Vandy is a solid team but gains nothing from playing at home. I'll roll with Florida because I don't see them sleep walking for an entire game.

    Arizona State has been high on my list for two years in A row. They're pretty good on offense but their defense is solid. Colorado is terrible, absolutely terrible. Even playing in Boulder there should be no way Arizona State doesn't beat Colorado by 22+. Both teams had a bye week last week so you have to go with coaching advantage and I think clearly Arizona State has that advantage. I don't like big lines though so ill probably stay away and watch the line movement on this one.
     
  9. bro

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    I like Northwestern -3.5 at Minnesota.

    my line for UF Vandy is -7 definitely gonna keep an eye on it

    I am curious if you guys have thoughts on KSTATE -7 @ Iowa St

    I really like Washington at home +13

    I can't believe Kentucky is such a big dog at Arky

    I like Tennessee to go in and beat Miss. State

    I really like West Virginia -4.5 @ tech

    I also like OSU -17 @ Indiana
     
  10. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    K State should cover against Iowa State. Shouldn't be an issue. I think Iowa State good but I think K State is legit. Great defense, steady and solid offense and Klein is a very productive player. I like the -7. I see K State by 17+

    Northwestern is an up and down team. They look great early in the year then lose to Penn State or someone and then spiral out of control for the remainder of their season. Still, Minnesota is bad and Northwestern SHOULD cover easily. Makes me wonder why this line is so small.

    West Virginia should destroy Tech. We all learned what we thought to be true, was true. Tech's defense was not as good as they were made out to be. Probably a top 40 defense at best. They were burnt by Oklahoma by Landry Jones and we all know Geno Smith is much better and has more option than Jones. Tech can put up points but I can see turnovers and a few stops here and there from West Virginia. I honestly see West Virginia by 10+

    Washington is hit or miss. They just don't have the line to protect Price. Keith Price is a very good quarterback but with no line he's looked average at best. I'm not impressed with USC at all but I have to believe that they will hit Woods and Lee for multiple big plays. I don't think Washington can muster up enough defense to win this game. Especially not cover. USC also knows they have no chance unless they run the table and beat Oregon twice. They will come out at home and win this game and I think big. But at the same time, USC doesn't have a strong line to protect Barkley either so I wouldn't be surprised to see Washington hang around. I'll stay away for now and watch the movement.

    As for Tennessee, I also like that pick. I think Mississippi State is good but not as good as people are thinking. A paper tiger of sorts. Tennessee is dangerous through the air. I'll stay away but watch very close to see how State plays this game. State can score on Tennessee's defense so I wonder how State's defense responds.
     
  11. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    Missouri
    Kentucky
    LA Tech
    Rutgers
     
  12. Fire Jimbob

    Fire Jimbob Boo Mfer’s kids biological father
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    Easy money on La Tech this weekend fyi
     
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  13. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Already on Arizona State
     
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  14. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Early leans

    Notre Dame
    Fresno St
    UCLA
    Vandy
     
  15. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    The tech WV line screams trap game. This is the type Vegas makes a killing off of. All the contrarian stuff will point to Tech. Line opened at 5/6 at some places and has gone to 4.5 with everyone on WVU. As a Techfan, it is going to be hard to not load up on WV.
     
  16. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Especially with two straight long long trips for WVU. I can't back TT though after this past weekend, even though they may be the right side.
     
  17. Irish226

    Irish226 Well-Known Member
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    Heavy steam on ND, started at -7 up to -10 at CRIS
     
  18. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    Western Kentucky should beat Troy easily. -2 right now
     
  19. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    Big movement in Ole Miss/Auburn
     
  20. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Updated leans after looking at games a little more:

    Vandy +7 (line says trap all over it)
    BYU - 2.5 (unranked team favored over ranked team)
    LSU -2.5 (bad spot for USCe coming off big win. Much different team on the road)
    Purdue -1 (unranked team favored over ranked team)
    Missouri +21 (too many points)

    possibly TCU depending on QB situation. Also crazy WVU are only 4 point favorites over TT. This is the game Vegas thinks they blow.
     
  21. Fire Jimbob

    Fire Jimbob Boo Mfer’s kids biological father
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    you do know James Franklin is out and that its at Bama and Mizzou's OL is a pile of dogshit that actual dogshit shits on, right

    Mizzou might not get a first down
     
  22. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Game is @ Missouri.
     
  23. chuckles

    chuckles Well-Known Member
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    Favorites so far:

    KSU -6.5
    UF -7
    WVU -4.5
    Kent St -1.5
     
  24. FriendsofJtyler

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    :edmond:
     
  25. wes tegg

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    I like all of those but Florida. They should win by 21+ but that's a historical trap game, even when Florida is really good. I think your read is right, I just wouldn't want to touch it.
     
  26. HtownTide

    HtownTide I make motion pictures. Space movies
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    This line makes no sense to me. Tech just got railed by OU and now they're somehow going to keep it with 4.5 of arguably the most explosive offense in CFB? I get WVU's defense is questionable, but still
     
  27. TLAU

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    I think Vandy-UF is a trap also. But I think they're trapping you guys wanting to take Vandy because the line is too low. Vandy is garbage. They probably won't score in that game.
    Like UF by 3 scores

    Also like UNC -6. Miami is terrible and their home field advantage counts for zero

    Purdue is garbage. Couldn't stop Marshall. Gave up 300 rush yards to Michigan. Ball gonna go for 200 against them. No way I would take Purdue in that game. Not sure if I'll take Wisconsin either though just because I'm 0-4 on Wisconsin games this year. Bet against them last week, and the week before. 0-2 on their totals.

    OleMiss -4.5 will be a play. Hopefully it stays below 7. probably would still play it at 7 though...

    LSU is dead to me. Will never put another dollar on them. USCe or nothing.

    Also like WV, Baylor, and possibly Cal.
     
  28. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Think you are way overestimating the intelligence of the betting public. These are dudes that wear jean shorts and have pony tails. Vegas isn't going to trap the public into taking a low number on a underdog. High number on an underdog? Absolutely (see VT/UNC last week or Minnesota/Iowa the week before).
     
  29. Fire Jimbob

    Fire Jimbob Boo Mfer’s kids biological father
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    okay

    still doesnt change anything
     
  30. FriendsofJtyler

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    I mean it does. 5 points for home field means on paper its a 10 point swing if it were played at Bama.
     
  31. Fire Jimbob

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    I mean have you seen Mizzou play this season
     
  32. FriendsofJtyler

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    Yes I have. But I also saw Alabama not cover last week against Ole Miss. They aren't invincible.

    Bama is good, can they cover this number? Sure. But if you start consistently betting 3 touchdown road favorites you are going to lose a lot of money.
     
  33. TLAU

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    The betting public is us. We're not sharps or big whigs in vegas. People that post on gambling message boards, college kids to guys in their early 40s make up most of that betting public. We're it. People in jorts and pony tails play slot machines at "bingo casinos" in cities that don't have real casinos. I've seen them at ours in the Gump. Majority of people out there know the terms "trap" and "square" play and think they know when they can spot one.

    Plenty of times people are trapped into taking a too low underdog... especially when it's a Home dog.
     
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  34. TLAU

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    fixed for the 2012 anomaly
     
  35. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Not saying I don't believe you, but I just don't see it. Any games in particular where you can point to Vegas trapping the public with a low home underdog?
     
  36. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    They didn't cover in their only road game this year as a 3+ TD favorite :idk:
     
  37. Franktus and 96 others

    Franktus and 96 others Bama, Southern Miss, Barves
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    thoughts on WVU at Texas Tech? it's at -4.5 right now
     
  38. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    i mean, wvu beat baylor by 7 and texas by 3.
    for them to beat tech by less than 4 is not outside the realm of possibility, esp considering two long road trips back to back.
     
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  39. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    I don't like betting against Tubs when he's playing the spread. It can be a crapshoot.
     
  40. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Now down to 4 at pinnacle. Vegas thinks Tech wins....and is going to get crushed when Tech gets blown out.
    or make a shit ton when Tech pulls the upset[\spoiler]
     
  41. TLAU

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    Off the top of my head, Texas @ Ole Miss. Tennessee - NCState (technically not a home dog since neutral field). UGA @ Mizzou. Not sure what the public % was on OMiss @ Tulane but remember seeing a lot of people picking Tulane. same for PSU @ Illinois, TTech @ Iowa State, Clemson @ BC - can't remember the % numbers on these three, but I know a lot of people were on BC. Unsure on the other two.

    There haven't been a whole lot of home dogs yet. We'll see it more the next month and a half in conference play.
     
  42. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Florida never plays well against Vandy FWIW.

    I just looked and L10 its 5-5 with Florida 3-2 @ Vandy
     
  43. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    The books needed Ole Miss, Missouri, and Boston College in those games. Texas, UGA, and Clemson were all heavy public sides so it wouldn't make sense for them to try and trap you to take the underdogs there. Tenn/NC State doesn't count because like you said it was on a neutral field.

    Looking at it some more TT was a public side and the money was split on PSU/Illinois.
     
  44. TLAU

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    I don't see how you thought they needed Ole Miss in the game considering the line went from what 13 to 9.5 by kickoff...
    Missouri line also went from like 3.5-4 opening down to 2 by kickoff.
    Everyone I saw on ~4 message boards I look at for gambling loved BC over Clemson. "Line was too low"... like I said the "betting public" I consider to be people like us in our 20s-30s that get on message boards and post/look for picks.
     
  45. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    ole miss -4.5. auburn is dreadful.
     
  46. GuyOnA_Buffalo

    GuyOnA_Buffalo Orphans, Cougars & What Not
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    WVU -4? You win Vegas. I'm gonna probably have to bite.
     
  47. FriendsofJtyler

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    I know that's mind boggling to me. Even crazier is it opened at 4.5 and has dropped to 4 where its holding steady.
     
  48. GuyOnA_Buffalo

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    I took it big. Think ill be able to get tech on betus on Saturday at +7x and try to middle.
     
  49. GuyOnA_Buffalo

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    If not, I'll take my chances with wvu I guess.