Week Night games: Week 12

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FadeMe, Nov 1, 2011.

  1. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta United

    I'll start a new post for each week night game instead of a new thread for each one.

    Tuesday: Northern Illinois @ Toledo -9/67.5

    N. Ill has scored less than 40 one time this season, but they can't stop anybody. Last week, Buffalo almost doubled NIU's offensive production.

    Toledo has a very good offense and has played a much tougher schedule. Toledo is averaging 36.5 ppg, but their defense is 28th in rush defense and 45th in total defense. They are suspectible to the pass, partly becasue they do a good job of stopping the run.

    My gut says it will be a close game. The stats look like NIU hasn't played anyone and has inflated stats while Toledo took a pounding early against some good defenses. My lean is Toledo and the over. I see a score something like 45-28. Thoughts?
     
  2. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Just blindly taking the underdogs here would likely turn a profit.
     
  3. Tricky Gator

    Donor TMB OG
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    just got home...suggestions on the second half line Toledo -7.5 is the line i have
     
  4. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Took Toledo 2nd half -8

    2 kickoff return TDs for NIU. another 3 and out that Toledo roughed the punter that resulted in a TD. Another blown assignment by Toledo's safety for a 70 yard wide open TD pass.

    NIU hasn't sustained a drive for a score yet this game. Toledo's offense has looked pretty dominant with the exception of the 2 drives where the black qb played.

    Pretty confident Toledo covers the original line -9 I have parlayed with Over 67
     
  5. Tricky Gator

    Donor TMB OG
    Florida Gators

    awesome ill do the same..thanks
     
  6. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    I have the game over and 2h under...
     
  7. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
    Donor TMB OG

    Question on middling.....

    I have No Ill +10 and the Over. Was fairly sure the over was going to hit. In your opinions...is it better the hedge the side since i was confident in the over hitting, guaranteeing me a win on the night. or...just ride it out and hope for ** win or losing the juice. just curious what everyone's thoughts are on it.
     
  8. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    I would almost always middle if the opp presents itself. The times I don't are when I'm really confident in the pick I have. Preseason I had Baylor +9 vs TCU, when the game came around, the line was Baylor +4. Rather than middle, I doubled up. Last week I had Mich St +7 vs UNL, but didn't feel as good about it, so I took UNL -4. I'd say just go with the strength of your feel for the play, with bias towards middling and not doing it when your that confident. There's obviously no rule or right way to do it.
     
  9. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
    Donor TMB OG

    sorry...meant more at middling at the half...not preseason/etc.

    meaning i had NO Ill +10 and O 67. At half, Toledo was -8 and 35.5. I was confident the Over would hit. My question is, should I have gone on Toledo -8 for 2H, giving myself a 5 point middle, with the over being a winner. I didnt middle, thus losing guaranteed winner in the chance that i would go 2-0. If i lose, i just lose the juice.
     
  10. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Yeah, but my feeling is still the same. How strong do you feel the original play is to hit, and how many points of middle opp? In that case, I wouldn't have.
     
  11. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
    Donor TMB OG

    ok...thanks. sometimes i feel like it is better to have a guaranteed win, sometimes i like to chance it. just wondering what others thoughts are
     
  12. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    That Toledo coach is a moron. Why would you not call your timeouts?
     
  13. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
    Donor TMB OG

    very weird. specifically once they had 1st a goal...call all 3....they can't run out the clock and you get at least a minute to try and kick a FG
     
  14. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
    Donor TMB OG

    my book opened at toledo -7 2h. i waited for that sucker to go as high as possible and hammered NIU at +9.

    also had under and NIU 1st half. an unusual tues winner for me.
     
  15. BhamBammer

    BhamBammer Showtime for Heisman
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  16. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Keep telling myself I'm gonna stay away from these shit weeknight games but boredom takes over
     
  17. Pokestradamus

    Pokestradamus New Member

    I'm on Ohio +3.5 tonight. Don't really have a thought on the total
     
  18. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    TLank, I'm right there with you! I lost juice last night because I get bored and have to make more than one bet to make these games interesting. I think that constitutes me having a problem.

    Oh well! On to tonight.

    Temple @ Ohio +3.5/47.5

    Both offenses are solid, each averaging around 30 ppg. Both defenses are even better. Ohio is 18th in total defense and 29th in run defense, allowing 117 ypg on the ground. Temple is 5th in total defense, giving up just 263 ypg. Both offenses can score points. Temple relies heavily on the run while Ohio has a more balanced attack.

    Because of Ohio's more balanced attack and home field, I lean towards Ohio. I don't think this game will be anything like last night's MAC matchup--almost the exact opposite, in fact. I think it will come down to a late FG, and Ohio has the edge in that area.

    Ohio +3.5 and not sure about the total.
     
  19. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    I'm with you. :beerchug:
     
  20. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
    Donor TMB OG

    Ohio +4 (got it Monday) and will probably play the Under.
     
  21. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
    Donor TMB OG

    most of money is on temple, yet line has moved opposite direction.

    no, thank you. everything i have looked into tells me temple will win by 7+, but this reverse movement is pushing me off the bet entirely.
     
  22. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Probably taking the Under. teams like this seem to be too unpredictable. gun to my head I take the Dog. Expo MAC system starting to grow on me
     
  23. BhamBammer

    BhamBammer Showtime for Heisman
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    I get fucked every time on these weeknight shitty ass games. I am done. Good luck guys
     
  24. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    What was that system again? Refresh my memory, if you don't mind. I searched for it but couldn't find it. I think he has one for Sun Belt too.
     
  25. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Blindly taking underdogs in shitty MAC weekday games
     
  26. slhorn

    slhorn Well-Known Member
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    took the under. only because i'll have nothing to do after work while i wait for my buddy to get out.
     
  27. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Oh, that system. Seems to work as well as trying to analyze these teams.
     
  28. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    analyzing glorified highschool teams is useless. always overthink them. change mind 2-3 times. click on whichever team the last write-up said to pick.

    cant make chicken salad out of chicken shit
     
  29. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    The under has taken a pounding this afternoon. It's down to 45.5 in my book.
     
  30. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    two nights in a row the MAC produces a straight up underdog winner.
     
  31. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    was coming here to post this. Expo MAC system is the rake
     
  32. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    won on over for game and 2h.

    2 nights in a row winning on the MAC...no way i can keep this up
     
  33. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    I just read through this again...if you meant you had NIU and the Over as a parlay, I would have hedged at the 2H...which basically guarantees a winner.
     
  34. BhamBammer

    BhamBammer Showtime for Heisman
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    lol I finally don't bet on a weekday game and I would have had it right
     
  35. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Nope. Not a parlay. 1 unit on niu and 1 unit on over. Over was as close to a guaranteed winner as it could be. If I bet on Toledo for 2H -8, I would have a 5 point middle op. If I didn't midle, I would lose the juice, but hit the over, thus guaranteeing me a winning night. If I don't bet Toledo and let my niu side roll, I have a chance of going 2-0 but also could have gone 1-1 and lost the juice. I didn't hedge and went 2-0.
     
  36. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Akron ... Possibly ml
     
  37. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Dont think I can bring myself to bet on Akron Expo. They are one of the worst 5 teams in the country. Couldn't bet on Memphis either
     
  38. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    3 games tonight:

    Akron @ Miami(OH) -14/47.5

    FSU @ BC +14.5/46

    Tulsa @ UCF -1.5/49

    First glance, I like Miami(OH), FSU, and Tulsa. I like the over in the FSU and Tulsa games and the under in the MIA game. Time for a little research.

    What's everyone playing tonight?
     
  39. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
    Donor TMB OG

    not sure how BC is going to score on FSU. BC has only done well this year running the ball (they did throw the ball well against Duke, but it is Duke), and FSU hasn't allowed any team to run on them.

    i am leaning toward BC under 16.
     
  40. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Yeah I don't see BC scoring much at all. I think FSU blows them out. Looking at the numbers for a minute, this game will probably end in the 31-10 area. The under is probably a better play, but I don't like the total either way in this game. I do like the BC under 16.
     
  41. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    small plays:

    FSU/BC Under 23
    6pt Tease: FSU -9.5/UCF +4

    UCF defense is great at home. only reason I like them. granted the teams they have played at home are D2 compared to their road schedule
     
  42. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    akron and tulsa
     
  43. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    I like Tulsa a lot. Akron... not so much. But they are a dog in MAC game so that has to count for something. Any thoughts on FSU/BC, Expo?
     
  44. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    yeah that's the only reason I'm taking Akron.

    Not really, would take the points though.
     
  45. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
    Donor TMB OG

    Tulsa is a public road underdog, correct?
     
  46. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Yeah I think they are. I remember looking at that last night, but I'm at work right now and don't have access to gambling/sports betting sites to see that info.
     
  47. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Think the Over in the Tulsa/UCF game has value.

    7 TDs is not that much. Tulsa runs a spread offense. UAB torched UCF using a spread and players half as talented. Everyone has seemed to be able to run the ball on Tulsa. Mobile QB for UCF makes for more 3rd down conversions in these shit conferences that don't have good/fast defenses
     
  48. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Per VegasInsider:

    Tulsa 55%
    UCF 45%
    O/U 87%/13%

    this makes me like the Under in the FSU game more: O/U 91%/9%
     
  49. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    I agree. Teams in these mid-major conferences that get nationally televised games tend to score a lot of points.
     
  50. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    hmm..haven't made the bet. Last I saw it, UCF was like 54%...I see Tulsa is like 55%. No Tulsa bet for me...maybe UCF.