I've hit 7 trifectas in the past week but they've all been Vanilla as hell... biggest payoff has been 42.60 which is downright miserable. Hit a couple of supers today in which I've won ~$200 off of so that's the saving grace for an absolutely shitty week of gambling. Also, I played heavily against Beholder thinking that she'd succumb to the male division like just about every other mare before her... obviously didn't work out... Not even mad over that, she is absolutely incredible. Bayern is done. Time to retire him.
Came to post this. Incredible race. He looks like he's in fast forward in the final turn, then closes the gap on the home stretch at damned near 12 wide. I loved both of his parents. Real excited about this horse.
The field for the Travers: 1. Upstart (15-1) 2. American Pharoah (1-5) 3. Mid Ocean (50-1) 4. Texas Red (8-1) 5. Frammento (30-1) 6. Frosted (6-1) 7. Keen Ice (12-1) 8. Tale of Verve (30-1) 9. King of New York (50-1) 10. Smart Transition (20-1) For whatever it's worth, I've seen a few rumors about Upstart scratching, mainly because of American Pharoah running. If American Pharoah loses, it will be to Texas Red (who I think will ultimately be the second choice come post time). I think Frosted and Keen Ice will both run well, but I don't see any reason to believe they can turn the tables on him.
By the way, the most impressive performance today was Runhappy in the Woody Stephens. He's a horse that has always had freakish ability (his maiden breaker is still one of the races that standout to me over the past 12 months), but mentally wasn't all there. He finally ran professionally today, and ran his race in a stakes record 1:20.54. For comparison sake, the race before, in a Grade 1 race for older fillies (Ballerina), they ran in 1:22.54 and the race after (Forego), a Grade 1 race for older males, went 1:21.09.
Sounds like Aidan O'Brien is pointing Gleneagles, who is one of the top horses in Europe (won the English and Irish 2000 Guineas, as well as the St. James Palace), to the Breeders Cup Classic. He's never raced on dirt or beyond a mile, but he has the pedigree to go longer and potentially take to the dirt (he's out of a full sister to Giant's Causeway)
I hate attempting to handicap races with Euro horses in them. Fortunately it seems as if they usually suck ass with first time lasix and take a while to adapt to this country. That said if they horse is arguably one of the top in Europe you have to work him into your exotics... Because you have to.
It was always assumed, but the connections of Beholder publicly announced that they will be targeting the BC Classic. They also said that, as long as she's healthy, that they would like to keep her racing next year.
Fantastic for the sport :) I would love to see similar hype develop around her as we saw with Zenyatta if she managed to win the Classic.
More good news- Lady Eli is doing well in her recovery from laminitis. She's going to be sent to a farm for two months to be turned out, but if that goes well, she could be back in training as soon as this November. Shared Belief is also officially back in training. Only jogging at this point, so he's still not expected to race again in 2015, but it's a step forward.
For me, while I enjoy all the races, my excitement leading up to the Breeders Cup usually comes down to the quality of two races- the Classic and the Juvenile. The Classic should be strong this year, looking at a field that looks something like this: American Pharoah Beholder Honor Code Liam's Map (though he's questionable, he may go in the Dirt Mile) Tonalist Keen Ice Frosted Gleneagles Constitution? (no idea what's going on with him) ...plus some filler, horses like Hard Aces/Catch A Flight/Coach Inge/Noble Bird/Effinex But the Juvenile looks weak. The east coast horses have been dreadful- west coast horses shipped and won the latter two graded stakes at Saratoga. Doug O'Neil has a solid group of Nyquist/Ralis/Mrazek, and the first two are probably the top two juveniles at the moment, but I don't think any of them are special. This looks more in line with the 2012 of the Juvenile (highlighted by the likes of Shanghai Bobby and He's Had Enough), and that was easily one of the weakest editions of the race in Breeders Cup history, if not the weakest.
This is probably the juvenile I'm most intrigued with at this time: Mohaymen has a very nice pedigree (Tapit out of Justwhistledixie, a multiple G2 winner), and Justwhistledixie also produced 2013 Juvenile champion New Year's Day. He won't be going in the Juvenile, though- sounds like the Nashua is what the next target is for him. He had an 87 Beyer in his debut, which is solid. I also think the second and third place runners (Seymourdini and King Kranz) are solid runners in their own right. Based on pedigree, I'd be surprised if King Kranz was anything other than a sprinter, but Seymourdini, being a son of Bernardini, could conceivably stretch out as well. But other than Championofthenile (who broke his maiden late at Saratoga, and has the highest Beyer for a 2 year old male with a 94), those are pretty much the only New York based horses that I've been impressed with at all so far.
Another example of the general mediocrity that looks to be headed to the Breeders Cup Juvenile was seen today at Santa Anita. There were three grade 1 races at 1 1/16 miles: the Zenyatta (for fillies/mares 3YO+), the Chandelier (for 2YO fillies), and the FrontRunner (for 2YO males), all won by heavy favorites. These were how the final times broke down: Zenyatta (Beholder): 1:42.83 Chandelier (Songbird): 1:43.79 FrontRunner (Nyquist): 1:44.89 And there weren't any major discrepancies in the early paces in each race. You can rationalize Nyquist being over 2 seconds slower than Beholder, since she is one of the most talented horses in the country. But he was also over a second slower than Songbird. Now, I think Songbird is the top 2 year old in training right now, regardless of gender (and frankly, I don't think it is all that close), but you would like to see the horse who, at this time, is expected to be favored in the Juvenile to be within shouting distance of the top juvenile filly. The other big thing from this weekend out at Santa Anita was Bayern failing once again despite having everything his own way, fading to third behind the lightly raced Smooth Roller as well as his stablemate Hoppertunity. Pretty much right after the race was finished, Bayern was retired.
Was hoping that Honor Code would run much better today in the Kelso, if for no other reason than I wanted him to take more money in the Classic. He's the one horse I know that I will be going against in the Classic, and I thought that way before his effort in the Kelso.
I finally liked what I saw with the juveniles this weekend. I thought Greenpointcrusader (Champagne winner) and Brody's Cause (Breeder's Futurity winner) were both very good. Both were on wet tracks, so it is possible that they just relished the slop (think this is more likely in the cast of Greenpointcrusader- he's a full sibling to Algorithms, who won the Holy Bull a couple years ago on a wet track, and also a half-sibling to Justin Philip, who won a couple graded stakes sprinting on a wet tack). For those reasons, I think I prefer Brody's Cause slightly of the two. But definitely prefer both of them to Nyquist. Breeders Cup Turf is setting up to have an especially strong European contingent. Golden Horn and Flintshire, the 1-2 finishers in the Arc de Triomphe today over in France (may be the most prestigious turf race in Europe), are both setting up plans to come over for the race. Golden Horn is a monster- he's rated the top race horse in the world by a couple different rankings. And we saw what Flintshire did at Saratoga earlier this summer on Travers day. Then add in Free Eagle (won the Prince of Wales this year) and The Grey Gatsby (won last year's Irish Champion Stakes). Both of those horses, while maybe not quite as good as Golden Horn, are world class horses in their own right.
Just to give people an idea on a couple of those Euros, since three of those four I mentioned above ran in the Arc. Golden Horn (finishes first, white and black silks with red cap), Flintshire (finishes second, green and pink silks with green cap), and Free Eagle (finishes sixth, black with red/black hat) are the three that may be headed to the Breeders Cup. Treve, who finished 4th, had won the past two editions of the Arc. She's staying in Europe.
In a minor surprise, Liam's Map will bypass the Classic and will run in the Dirt Mile instead. Definitely will have an impact on the race setup, as he was the likely pacesetter. Got to think this can only help the more forwardly placed horses (American Pharoah, Beholder, Smooth Roller) and would inhibit the deep closers (Honor Code, Keen Ice, perhaps Tonalist?) By the way, the closer we get to the Classic, the more and more that Smooth Roller is intriguing me, and I'm toying with the thought of actually picking him to win. Even though he only made his debut at the end of June, and only has run once in a graded stakes (a race where he had a very good setup). But if he runs back to that Awesome Again, he's a real contender, and he's one of the few horses that I don't have any major questions about going the distance- even though he's never gone longer than 1 1/8 miles, he has a decent distance pedigree, but more important to me was how he impressive he looked galloping out in the aftermath of the Awesome Again. And given his anonymity compared to the rest of the horses in the field, he's going to be a nice price. My biggest issue with him is that he isn't great at the gate.
There's a good chance that Flintshire might pass on the Breeders Cup to run in the Japan Cup. Ideally, I think the connections would have considered running in both, but because Japan currently has some sort of 30-day quarantine rule for horses coming to Japan from the US, and the Japan Cup takes place less than 30 days before the Breeders Cup, the connections have to choose one or the other, and the Japan Cup seems to be more likely.
Dortmund is returning this weekend in a minor stakes race at Santa Anita. It will be a prep for the Clark.
Something to be aware of: Beholder spiked a minor fever this morning, and was unable to train today. Now the prevailing thought is that it was mostly due to stress from the ship to Keeneland as opposed to an infection, which would lead to a quicker recovery if that is the case. But it does make you a bit uneasy to see quotes like this: The Hall of Fame trainer said the slight temperature rise caused concern due to past illnesses. Winner of the 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) and 2013 Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I), Beholder missed last year's Breeders' Cup Distaff because of a fever and was found to have a lung infection at the time. "Breeders' Cup is not ruled out," Spendthrift general manager Ned Toffey said. "We're very much hour to hour and day to day, but her initial test results were very encouraging."
Breeders Cup pre-entries were released today. You can find links to all the pre-entries here, along with possible morning lines, but this is what the Classic field will look like: American Pharoah Beholder Honor Code Tonalist Gleneagles Smooth Roller Frosted Keen Ice Effinex Hard Aces
The post positions for the Breeders Cup were done today. Friday races (Breeders Cup- Races 6-9, though Race 5 will be interesting as well) Saturday races (Breeders Cup- Races 3-11) I'll have some more thoughts sometime the next day or two when I look at the PP's more in depth. But a couple quick random thoughts: -I think the likeliest winner for any Breeders Cup race is Liam's Map in the Dirt Mile, followed by Golden Horn in the Turf. Not sure if I'll play any pick 3/4/6's yet, but if I did, those would be the two I'd be most likely to single. -Just based on morning lines, the most intriguing horse to me in any race is Artemis Agrotera in the Filly and Mare Sprint. She hasn't raced at all since last year's Filly and Mare Sprint, but her trainer is good with layoffs, and I haven't been impressed with anyone in that division. Talent wise, she's right there with the others. Not sure I'll quite get her 20-1, but if she's anywhere near there, she's worth a look.
Everybody is really down on Nyquist in the Juvenile but I still really love this horse. Swipe has gotten closer and closer and closer in each of his starts vs Nyquist but even in the last race when Swipe had looked to be able to catch Nyquist down the stretch Nyquist dug deep and found a little extra in the tank to hold off Swipe. I'm not totally sure how to interpret that, but Nyquist didn't have the greatest of trips and still found a way to win... it was the best move I've seen by a two year old to date with the only possible competition being the insane move by Rachel's Valentina in her first start (but she'll lose to Songbird on Saturday). I feel again, the West Coast 2-year old crop is just simply better than the East Coast so Nyquist or Swipe are my selections in the Juvenile. Holendorfer's aformentioned Songbird is my selection in the Fillie Juvenile. I agee with mtsucalico85 with Liam's Map and Golden Horn in the turf without even going over all of the PP's so far.... Golden Horn would be my strongest lock of the entire weekend.
Nyquist is good, but I just feel that he is a better horse around one turn. Even though he has won, his races have been getting less impressive with each run, and given that his pedigree leans more towards speed than stamina, I tend to think he'll find others that are better at the distance. Plus while I agree that the West Coast juvenile males were best during the summer, I do think Greenpointcrusader and Brody's Cause were best in the fall for those in the race (I still am intrigued more by Mohaymen than those horses going forward, even though he isn't running this weekend). Doesn't mean I'll ultimately pick them, but I'd prefer them to Nyquist. Songbird is one of the likeliest winners as well, but Tap To It interests me enough where I don't think I would completely single her. To me, that is a three horse race (with Rachel's Valentina the third horse, and I like her less than those other two in this spot).
Beholder will be scratched from the Classic. When she was examined after a gallop this morning, her connections found blood in her trachea and irritation in her lungs.
My thoughts for this weekend (in spoilers because it's long): Friday's picks: Spoiler Race 6: Juvenile Turf – With the turf races, I always start with the Euros. The most accomplished of the group is probably Cymric (13), who is the tepid morning line favorite, but the Euro I think is most interesting is Hit It A Bomb (14). Even though he’s only raced in a listed stakes, he’s actually the favorite among European bookmakers. Don’t think the other two Euros are quite on their level. For the Americans, Airoforce (8) is the best hope. Those are the main three, but if you are looking for a big price, Sky Marshal (9) had a brutal trip in the Summer Stakes last time out, and still ran on to finish second. He’s dangerous to get into the exotics. Juvenile Turf selections: 1. Hit It A Bomb (14) 9-2 2. Airoforce (8) 4-1 3. Sky Marshal (9) 30-1 Race 7: Dirt Mile – Liam’s Map (3) towers over this field to me. Don’t really have too much to say, other than I think he’s a single in multi-race wagers. Dirt Mile selections: 1. Liam’s Map (3) Even 2. Wicked Strong (8) 5-1 3. Bradester (2) 10-1 Race 8: Juvenile Fillies Turf – There are three Euros in this race, and while two of them (Alice Springs (6) and Nemoralia (9)) are solid horses, Illuminate (10) is clearly the best of the group. She’s a multiple graded stake winner already in Europe. She hasn’t gone beyond 6 furlongs yet, but I don’t see any reason why a mile would be a problem. Of the local horses, Harmonize (8) will be favored, and might be the most polished, but I like Catch A Glimpse (4) the most- she looked strong in the Natalma. Illuminate and Catch A Glimpse will be my main two. Juvenile Fillies Turf selections: 1. Illuminate (10) 9-2 2. Catch A Glimpse (4) 5-1 3. Alice Springs (3) 6-1 Race 9: Distaff – I’m trying to beat the older horses. I don’t think they are that strong outside of Wedding Toast (7), and even with her, I’m worried that she may be a Belmont horse-for-course. I’m looking at the Cotillion as being a key race, as I thought the top three horses all ran big races. I’m A Chatterbox (1) has been the top three year old filly this year, and has slowly been running faster and faster races, as has the runner up, Calamity Kate (5). And the latter has been in the exacta at huge odds the past two races. Meanwhile, Peace and War, who finished third, will be passing tired horses late. I don’t think she can win, but she can get a piece. The other horse I like is Stellar Wind (9), who has been a bit under the radar out west since losing as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks, but still has shown a ton of ability in her come back races. I’m A Chatterbox will be my top pick, but at the price that Calamity Kate and Stellar Wind maybe, they likely will have win bet value as well. Distaff selections: 1. I’m A Chatterbox (1) 8-1 2. Calamity Kate (5) 30-1 3. Stellar Wind (9) 12-1 Saturday's picks: Spoiler Race 3: Juvenile Fillies – I’ve said before that Songbird (10) is the best juvenile in the country regardless of gender, and I still believe that. That said, I think Tap To It (2) is dangerous, even though she should be a bit lost in the wagering behind Songbird and Rachel’s Valentina (9). She’s still a bit green, but she overcame a lot of trouble in her first start to win, and Rachel’s Valentina had a better trip in the Spinaway. I’d be willing to take a minor shot against Rachel’s Valentina, focusing on Songbird and Tap To It, but she’s the clear third horse. Juvenile Fillies selections: 1. Songbird (10) 7-5 2. Tap To It (2) 8-1 3. Rachel’s Valentina (9) 7-2 Race 4: Turf Sprint – This is always a crapshoot of a race for me. I do think Lady Shipman (5) is vulnerable as the favorite, as she didn’t look all that impressive last time out, running at Keeneland. Will also be against Undrafted (Wes Welker's horse), who will take a lot of money. Ready For Rye (12) is tepidly my pick. He isn’t the most consistent sort, but he’s capable of running huge races. Pure Sensation (1) also seems logical to me- he isn’t brilliant, but he is consistent. He’s the most likely to finish in the top 3 to me. Bobby’s Kitten (2) and Jimmy Bouncer (4) may be in the mix as well, although I prefer Jimmy Bouncer of the two, as Bobby’s Kitten hasn’t been quite as good as he was last year. Turf Sprint selections: 1. Ready For Rye (12) 10-1 2. Pure Sensation (1) 6-1 3. Jimmy Bouncer (4) 15-1 Race 5: Filly And Mare Sprint – As I mentioned before, I like Artemis Agrotera (5) quite a bit here. I think Cavorting (14) and Stonetastic (8) are good horses as well, but I think Artemis Agrotera is every bit as talented as them, and the layoff means I’ll get a much better price on her. And beyond those three, the field underwhelms me. Filly And Mare Sprint selections: 1. Artemis Agrotera (5) 20-1 2. Cavorting (14) 3-1 3. Stonetastic (8) 5-1 Race 6: Filly And Mare Turf – I’m going all Euros, as I think this is a pretty strong group, while the US based horses are fairly weak. Won’t be creative at the top, Legatissimo (3) is the best horse in the race, and is two heads away from winning five Group 1 races in a row overseas. But there is quality depth behind her as well, as both Queen’s Jewel (6) and Miss France (9) are Group 1 winners, Secret Gesture (12) has won multiple Group 2 races, plus came over here and won a Grade 1 earlier this year (though she was DQ’d), and even Bawina (10), who is a lesser Euro in this group, won a Group 2 race in France. The only American horse I could see myself sneaking into the exotics would be Stephanie’s Kitten (11), but I can’t see her winning. Filly And Mare Turf selections: 1. Legatissimo (3) 8-5 2. Miss France (9) 6-1 3. Queen’s Jewel (6) 12-1 Race 7: Sprint – This is being billed as a two horse race between Runhappy (5) and Private Zone (13), and I do think Runhappy is the most likely winner. He has freakish ability, and I see him going wire to wire. I will be trying to completely beat Private Zone, though. He’s a need the lead type to me, and Runhappy (assuming he breaks well) is just faster than him. I also think 6 furlongs is a bit too short for Private Zone. The horses I will mess around with to go with Runhappy are Kobe’s Back (2), Masochistic (9) and Barbados (11). Kobe’s Back will get a fast pace to run into, and if he breaks well, I could see him running down everyone. Problem is, he is about 20-1 just to break well. If you back him, you have to know he likely won’t start well, but have to hope that he won’t completely botch the break. Masochistic was arguably the best sprinter in the country earlier this year, but went a bit off form. But if he rebounds, he’s right with those top two, and he’ll be a square price. I’ve always been a fan of Barbados, and while I don’t think he can win, he’s capable of getting into the exotics at a big price. Sprint selections: 1. Runhappy (5) 3-1 2. Kobe’s Back (2) 15-1 3. Barbados (11) 20-1 Race 8: Mile – Another race that should be dominated by Euros, as I don’t like any of the Americans. The Andre Fabre duo of Esoterique (9) and Make Believe (3) are the favorites, and both are logical contenders, but the horse that interests me the most is Time Test (12). His only loss this year was at 1 5/16 miles against quality horses like Arabian Queen and Golden Horn. Can’t fault him for that, and then he was cut back to a mile last time out and delivered a nice win. Those three horses stand out to me above the rest of the field, and Time Test should be the best price of the three. Mile selections: 1. Time Test (12) 6-1 2. Esoterique (9) 7-2 3. Make Believe (3) 3-1 Race 9: Juvenile – It’s weird having a Juvenile race with no Baffert or Pletcher. I think Brody’s Cause (7), long term, is the best Kentucky Derby prospect in the race, and he’ll be favored, but while I’ll use him, I’m going to shoot for a bigger price on top. The same thing holds for Greenpointcrusader (3) (unless it rains- if it rains, he becomes my top pick). Exaggerator (9), who Brody’s Cause beat in the Breeder’s Futurity in the local prep, looms a threat, but I’m going to take a stab with Unbridled Outlaw (4). He had a terrible trip in the Iroquois, but closed strong to finish third. Juvenile selections: 1. Unbridled Outlaw (4) 15-1 2. Exaggerator (9) 6-1 3. Brody’s Cause (7) 7-2 Race 10: Turf – Golden Horn (1) is the other clear single to me from the two days. He’s the best horse over in Europe, and their horses tower over our turf horses. I like the other Euro, Found (9), to round out the exacta, and for Twilight Eclipse (6) to outrun his odds and finish third. Turf selections: 1. Golden Horn (1) 3-5 2. Found (9) 8-1 3. Twilight Eclipse (6) 20-1 Race 11: Classic – With the defections of Liam’s Map and now Beholder, American Pharoah (4) has the tactical edge on the field. He’s the likeliest winner, but at odds on, I’m still going to take a minor shot against him. I’m still not convinced that 1 ¼ miles is best for him. I can say that about Tonalist (1), and that is why he’ll be my pick to win. People say that he is a Belmont horse, and he is very good there, but he ran well last year in the Classic- he was the only horse that closed at all into that slow pace, and while he didn’t win at Saratoga, he has always run well there. Beyond those two, I will use Smooth Roller (7), Keen Ice (2), and Frosted (3), and I like them in that order. If Honor Code (9) finishes in the top 3, I will lose. He needs a supersonic pace to win, and he won’t get that here. Plus I still believe he’s a better one turn horse. Classic selections: 1. Tonalist (1) 4-1 2. American Pharoah (4) 4-5 3. Smooth Roller (7) 12-1 4. Keen Ice (2) 8-1
I don't think it matters with Runhappy, to be honest. His acceleration is absurd. Even if he breaks poorly, he'll rush up to the front and still be able to maintain his energy through the wire.
I'm going to be playing this in the Pick 4 today: Race 6: 8, 9, 13, 14 Race 7: 1 Race 8: 3, 4, 8, 10 Race 9: 1, 5, 9
Was a head and/or an inquiry away from hitting the pick 4. Damn you Stopchargingmaria. Would have paid nicely, too (about $1200 for a $1 bet), if Stellar Wind would have been placed on top.
And that is why I thought Songbird was the best 2 year old in the country. Was the winner every step of the way.