we passed a monstrous infrastructure bill in 2021, that money will not begin to be spent until 2023 with peak spend coming in 2024/25. The numbers are absolutely wild- let the economy cool off but the pain won’t last https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/what-...e-package-means-for-manufacturing-and-energy/
Guess I’m just still surprised by the energy in these sell offs. Thought at some point we wouldn’t be seeing these multiple 2.5%+ downward days.
can you more fully explain your feelings about DCA? not comparing DCA vs. lump sum, but as a monthly investing strategy with a portion of your funds allocated to investing.
DCA means you're holding some funds back that are available to invest to trickle into investments over a period of time thats net negative vs just investing them as you get them available
Bond yields moving significantly higher because of reinvigorated tightening expectations off of that CPI print on Friday.
I'm consistently investing a percentage of each paycheck. And I have an emergency fund with my local bank. I also have a larger amount in a high yield online savings account. Part of me thinks I should invest the portion in the high yield account. But I'm having trouble deciding how much cash I need on hand. All that said, I'm curious how much cash you recommend keeping vs investing. I have the cash available but not sure if it makes sense to keep any beyond my emergency fund.
At this point I’d guess your high yield is 1%, if you can swing it I’d buy I Bonds with that emergency fund.
emergency fund sizes are very much a personal decision and involve your own risk tolerance how secure is your job? if you lost it how in demand is your field? what's your monthly budget? got an old house and potential surprise costs you need to hedge against? on and on
Yeah it is 1% I'm in the mortgage industry, so maybe not great, hah. But I'm a specialized position. Plus I work for a smaller company, with my direct bosses pretty much like family. So I'm not overly concerned about losing the job. I feel like I'd be able to find another fairly quickly, if it came to that. I think my emergency fund is capable of covering most of what is needed. I guess more of what I'm asking is there a need to keep additional cash, outside of my emergency fund (whatever I determine that appropriate amount to be for me). 30% of each pay period goes towards a mix of 401k, HSA, Roth, and taxable brokerage. That seems like a lot, which is why I'm continuing to hold more cash. But it just seems like I really shouldn't.
yeah imo, no reason to just accumulate cash above what you think is a safe emergency fund. i assume you're a long ways from retirement like most of us so just dump it in.
Will be 40 this year so yeah. Have been thinking about dumping it lately. Just hard to let go of it but I do realize it is stupid to just sit on it.
Enough cash to cover 6 months of expenses is the high end of what I would keep in cash. If you don’t have any immediate plans for large ticket purchases that you want to keep a cash payment or down payment for put everything beyond that into the market.
Yeah that seems to be the safer side of things. I’ve read 2-6 months depending of circumstances. I keep most in my HYSA which I can get to within a day or 2. I’m almost 40 with no kids and have never had an emergency which necessitated thousands of dollars with in a day.
I no used to recommend 3-6 months and with no kids and stable employment I would def go on the short side there.
Sounds about right. 52 weeks x 5 days is 260. Take out the holidays and you get 252. We plan for 250 production days per year in my plant after holidays are taken out when working a 5 day week.
I’m on the other end, my parents are cutting me a deal on their house which is right towards the upper limit of my budget. I need the most money out of my house I’m selling and rates to stay lower….I’m fucked
Biggest test of the Fed yet, they’ve guided .50% and as of 2-3 weeks ago they said .75% wasn’t on the table. Like you said markets priced in .75, will be interesting to see what we get.
It shifted towards more than likely being a .75 last week some time. Retail sales taking a dump too. I’ll be shocked if it isn’t .75
it didn’t shift until Mondays report by Timaraos of the WSJ that the Fed was considering .75%, he’s kind of their leak mouth piece when they want to get the market prepped for something. Odds percentages went from 4% pre CPI on Friday to 28% percent after CPI to 94% on Monday after the Timaraos report that’s also why markets went down 4%
There was plenty to read between the lines as this meeting got closer (“Aggressively addressing inflation” Fed stance). Reports of a possible .75 started to rear its head more and more even before the Friday jump from 4% to 28% by Timaraos. Anyone with common sense should be well aware inflation is going to continue being a bitch for some time before the Feds do any “easing”
economy just showing signs of REALLY cooling off so was hoping fed wouldn't get too aggro need to read the transcript later
It was Friday to Wednesday. I know because I’ve been in an airport both times I read this thread. To be fair to Lyrtch - and he might not even know this yet - private capital markets sentiment has collapsed this week, so he has a point which he might not even realize. Real estate credit markets are freezing at a serious pace right now. Equity isn’t that far behind. PE credit spreads are also blowing out - but lagging behind RE indicators. It has not been a pretty week and people are freaked out.