Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Some thoughts from the past weekend Derby prep races:

    - I don't care what American Pharoah does on Saturday, Dortmund is the horse to beat on Derby Day. I know he is the horse that Cza likes to win the Derby. And he was impressive again, easily beating a fairly solid field in the Santa Anita Derby. That said, he benefited from Bad Read Sanchez being taken back to last, allowing him to set his own pace. Now he set legitimately fast fractions, but he wasn't being pressured in doing so. The only other horse with speed was One Lucky Dane, and he wasn't ever going to go after his stablemate. I think this caused Bolo and Prospect Park to be a little closer to the pace then they had wanted, which limited their late kick. I still think Bolo is a turf horse, so his performance didn't surprise me, but I was still disappointed with Prospect Park. I've liked his past races too much to get off him after one poor race though. And, assuming he gets in, he'll be a decent price on Derby Day. But he's certainly dropped at least a couple of spots in my mind.

    - It's close, but I still think I prefer Carpe Diem over Dortmund for the Derby at this time. I know he hasn't run that fast race yet that others have, including Dortmund, but I also don't think we've seen his best performance yet. In the Blue Grass, his jockey was looking behind his shoulder the last half mile of the race. He knew he had the measure of the pace setter Ocho Ocho Ocho at that point, and was trying to save as much energy as he could. He could have won by many more lengths if he wanted to. He's being lined up to peak for the Derby. I don't like anyone else out of this race- I've seen some comparisons for Danzig Moon to Golden Soul/Commanding Curve as a clunk-up closer, but I don't see it with him. There is more quality at the top in this edition of the Derby than in the past two runnings, and I've never thought he's been all that good. And Ocho Ocho Ocho, who finished third, will be better going shorter.

    - In the Wood, I saw the Frosted that I've been expecting to see since the beginning of the year. His collapse last time out in the Fountain of Youth may be a blessing in disguise, as they did minor surgery to correct a breathing issue in the wake of that race. I don't know what he beat here- El Kabeir and Daredevil are both talented but distance challenged, and a horse like Tencendur running second is a bit of an indictment on the rest of the field (though, to be fair to him, he ran a big race). But Frosted was much the best, and with the breathing problem corrected, I think he is a major contender for the Derby. He's jumped into my top 5, taking Prospect Park's spot for now.

    My current top 5, in order, would be Carpe Diem, Dortmund, Firing Line, Frosted, and American Pharoah, with Prospect Park and Materiality just on the outside.
     
  2. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Prospect Park just pulled off the derby trail today with fever and sickness. Far from Over dropped last week with a cond fracture. Bummer. I imagine we will lose one or two more.

    Need to see Pharoah this weekend, but Dortmund really couldn't have done anything else to sell me. Seen him come from off the pace, seen him dig deep in the stretch and seen him go wire to wire. Been with him since December and not changing now even though he'll likely be the odds favorite.
     
  3. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    haven't followed as much this year as in the past. need to get back into it. one thing that has been clear though is that a horse can't peak at the derby and win the crown, it's gotta be good enough to leave something in the tank. which horse is talented enough to do that this year? is there any?
     
  4. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    I think there's 6 or 7 that can win the Derby this year. There's no Cali Chrome in this crop who you feel confident on getting through the derby and the Preakness.
     
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  5. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I doubt a Triple Crown happens this year, mostly because I think the top few horses are stronger than we've seen the past couple years. But I would say that Carpe Diem or Dortmund would be the most likely. Carpe Diem has only started twice so far, and both were easy efforts with something left in the tank. Horses with his breeding are usually slower to develop mentally and physically, so even with him being as good as he is this early in his career, I think there is a lot of room to grow with him. He has been running a little slower speed figure wise than some of the other top horses, so that does need to improve, but I think it will.

    Dortmund has just been the best horse this year. He's more battle tested than Carpe Diem is, and he's been consistently running fast races. I'm not quite as sold on his breeding as I am with Carpe Diem in terms of the longer distances (more so looking at the Belmont), but I don't think its a huge negative, either.

    American Pharoah is probably the most naturally talented horse in this crop. I just don't trust him at the longer distances, so I don't put him on the same level of those two. He might be your Derby favorite, though.
     
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  6. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    American Pharoah just embarrassed the field in the Arkansas Derby. I'd say its safe to put him in the top 3 if not the overall favorite.
     
  7. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    This would be more impressive had I not seen at least 7 other 3 year olds win in the same fashion this year. He didn't even take his hands off the reins. Guys, this shit is wide open. I would suggest getting some friends together and betting some super boxes. I would be shocked if Dortmund/Carpe Diem/Americh Pharoah aren't in the top 5. Everything will pay well this year, shouldn't be anyone go off under 4-1 and I think Firing Line could be in the trifecta and might be at 15-1.

     
    #7 Cza, Apr 12, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2015
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  8. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Definitely the most impressive American Pharoah performance so far, and it's nice to finally see him pass a horse- even if it was a hopeless long shot. Still worth noting that he was about a half second slower than the older males earlier in the card (granted, Race Day is a damn good horse).

    This appears to be the best group of Derby contenders at the top since the Street Sense/Hard Spun/Curlin group in 2007. In any other year, a horse like Materiality (undefeated Pletcher horse, top Beyer of 110, two wins at 1 1/8 miles, well bred) would be in the neighborhood of 4-1. He'll most likely be 10-1 or better.
     
  9. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Speed figures and pace figures for all the prep races, according to TimeformUS. I use Beyers the most, but I do like looking at their figs as well, especially because they account for pace/trip in their numbers, which Beyer's don't really do.

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Dairy Queen

    Dairy Queen The mentally ill sit perfectly still
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    Going to keeneland on Saturday...am I going to see any Kentucky derby horses?
     
  11. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    You're two weeks late.
     
  12. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Shared Belief racing today at 6:05 at Charles Town. First time traveling so might be worth it to do some small Exactas and Tris without him in it. No money with him up top and if he finishes outside the top 3. Could be a huge payout on a tiny wager.
     
  13. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm not worried about the traveling so much- granted it isn't as long, but he's always shipped from northern California to southern California for his races. If you are trying to beat him, it's because of the 3 turns and the bull ring configuration at CT.

    It won't be a betting race for me- I just don't like any of the other horses in that field that much to try and beat him.
     
  14. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    He's done 3 turns before so not worried about that. If you're willing to go in on a key, I like Street Bade/A Rod/Moreno. It is a good race to do a $0.50 box tri without him just in case because the payoff would likely be north of $700
     
  15. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    One Lucky Dane is injured and will not run in the Derby.
     
  16. Cza

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    One step closer to Keen Ice and Ocho Ocho Ocho in.

    Bolo is in on points, but should be on turf.
     
  17. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Ocho is in, if he wants to run. It sounds like they will, but I think he should stick to shorter races.

    Madefromlucky is the 20th horse right now, with 30 points. Keen Ice is 21, Frammento is 22. Both will run if they get in.
     
  18. POWESHOW

    POWESHOW Social Critic
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    I've been going to the track like twice a month... I'm gradually picking things up, but I'd like to know A LOT more than I currently do. Do any of you 'regulars' have any literature - websites or books- I can read to get more familiar with the basics (and beyond?) of horse racing? Fucking love this shit
     
  19. cdaysker

    cdaysker Quarry
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    Really enjoy this thread, I just wish I knew what the hell I was doing when it comes to horse racing. I love going and love wagering at the local track but honestly have no rhyme or reason to what I do. I'll definitely be paying close attention to this thread as we get closer to Derby Day.
     
  20. Cza

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    Key is a really watching every week. I do well at Hoosier Park because I watch every week. Figure out how each horse likes to run and go from there. Hit a $5 super straight at Hoosier in the sire stakes final because I had seen each horse race a dozen times that year and made bets based on the draw.
     
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  21. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Shared Belief was eased in his race.

    Another example of why bridgejumping is the absolute worst bet you can make.
     
  22. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Like I said, good time to bet with Shared Belief out of the top 3, exacta hit for $330.
     
  23. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    If I were to have tried to beat him, I would have just done a bunch of show bets on the other horses. A $2 show bet on Imperative (the horse that won this exact race last year) paid $71.20. You also won more money betting Moreno to show than you would for a win bet ($16 for a win bet, $23.20 to show).
     
  24. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I had put this in the old thread before everything got wiped out, and it's not literature, but Night School, a horse racing podcast, is worth a listen to. They also have 'study materials' at the bottom of the link that are worth looking at- they might be more what you are looking for in terms of something you can read.
     
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  25. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Current Derby Odds (these will change after the draw)

    1. American Pharoah 2/1
    2. Dortmund 9/2
    3. Carpe Diem 7/1
    4. Mubtaahij 12/1
    5. Materiality 14/1
    6. Firing Line 16/1
    7. Frosted 16/1
    8. Upstart 20/1
    9. International Star 25/1
    10. El Kabeir 33/1
    11. Far Right 33/1
    12. Ocean Knight 40/1
    13. Itsaknockout 40/1
    14. Bolo 40/1
    15. Danzig Moon 40/1
    16. Tencendur 40/1
    17. Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1
    18. Mr Z 50/1
    Fuck. Nm, these are wrong. Gives an idea on the first seven though. Think AP will be at 3-1 as the co-fav with Dortmund.
     
    #25 Cza, Apr 26, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2015
  26. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    this year is the least i have followed horse racing since 2005. :feelsbadman:i need to be better.
     
  27. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Handicapping wise, it's a good year to not have followed. The top end is pretty decided, I would be shocked if one of Dortmund/Pharoah/Diem/Firing Line didn't win the Derby. The next 8 after those are as good and close as I can remember. Payouts should be awesome and is one of those years to key the top four and throw some randoms behind it.

    The only horse I have really seen challenged in a stretch battle and fight is Dortmund. He's been my pick since November so not changing up now, have him at 8-1 in some future stuff which I feel good about. The one I really am sad didn't make it is "Far From Over", had high hopes for him.
     
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  28. Cza

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    Here was the race that made me fall in love with Far From Over, basically almost went head over tail out of the gate and then this happened ...

     
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  29. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    wow, what an effort. what's going on with him now?
     
  30. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Condylar fracture in a workout. Hope he's back eventually. Secretariat's great grandson.
     
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  31. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    So before the draw, I am totally 100% set on Dortmund/AP/Carpe Diem/Firing Line in ALL of my bets. I have two that I will keep out even with a good draw ... International Star (mainly because I think the Louisiana crop was shit this year and his one time running at Churchill, was beaten 4th easily) and Mubtahiij (not convinced he will handle the changes well and didn't think much of the Dubai field when he started to get some recognition).

    Beyond the 4 potential winners mentioned above, I am still considering Materiality/Upstart/Frosted/Far Right/Tencendur/Keen Ice as possible exotic hits. I am really hoping two of the last 6 mentioned draw posts 1 and 20 so I can scratch them.

    Extremely confident War Story/Bolo/Ocho Ocho Ocho/Mr. Z/Danzig Moon/El Kabeir will not be a factor at all.
     
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  32. Cza

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    Here is what 100% sold me on Dortmund, 99 times out of 100, a horse gets passed on the outside in the stretch by a length, it's over. He digs in. It's also why I think Firing Line is going to have ridiculous value at 15-1 next Saturday.



    After this race, Dortmund cleaned up in Cali and Firing Line went to New Mexico and annihilated the field there. Good exacta bet if you're short in the pockets.
     
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  33. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Me and Cza have a pretty similar view with the field. I think there are only a couple horses that we have minor differences of opinion about, mainly in that group of exotics horses. We are in good agreement with those top four- those were my top four horses before the prep season started, and the only horse that broke that up was Prospect Park, who is now off the trail. Also agree with that last set of horses- I can't think of a scenario where I would bet any of them in the Derby.
     
  34. Cza

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    When they put Borel on El Kebeir, had a moment of apprehension, but with the way he rode Ride On Curlin last year (who is twice the horse Kebeir is), not all that worried. If there's a ridiculous pace (meaning if Pharoah just goes for it), potentially could hit, but I would bet against it.

    Also, Prospect Park is now racing in the undercard after blaming injury for going off the trail, that's a new one.
     
  35. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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    Any tips on the Oaks or an undercard race?

    Would boxing AP,CD, and Dort be a decent bet this race?
     
  36. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    mt usually previews the undercard. I know Bayern is racing in one of them on Saturday, but he'll go off 1-1.

    Until the positions are drawn on Wednesday, no bets are a good idea.
     
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  37. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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    I read the Xpressbet preview today. Im about to watch a TVG preview and another one Friday. Im going to make so much money this weekend :mulletsmug:
     
  38. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Draw is tomorrow at 5:30 on NBCSN. First Julip of the week going down during. We can start seriously putting bets together tomorrow night.\bartscott.
     
  39. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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    Does NBCSN show all the stakes races once their coverage starts?
     
  40. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    So someday when we're all rich we're going to get a box at the Derby for a TMB party, right? Just want to plan accordingly.
     
  41. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    [​IMG]
     
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  42. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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    Forecast calling for a chance of rain tomorrow but it should be gone for friday and Saturday
     
  43. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Boxes are nice. I'd say the all-inclusive area on the first turn would be better for a TMB outing. Im too old for the infield. This is my first year since 2011 not going, sucks but decided to head to the Breeders Cup at Keeneland instead to mix it up.
     
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  44. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    Good choice. Haven't been to a Breeders Cup yet. Want to go sometime when it's back out at Santa Anita
     
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  45. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Hoping Shared Belief is healed up by then. I have to get out west, we went in on a Team Valor filly, Tulira's Star, but nothing really great. Tulira did lose to Take Charge Brandi by 8 lengths which is the extent of success so far.

    We are mainly Harness in Indiana\Illinois\Pennsylvania. Rock the Look is in the last race at Hoosier Harness on Friday, 8-1 and good shot to hit the board if anyone wants to try and make some extra Derby money.
     
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  46. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    10 minutes to the draw on NBCSN! First Julep of Derby week for me.

    [​IMG]
     
  47. POWESHOW

    POWESHOW Social Critic
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    Can you explain to me exactly what this is? I want to understand this shit so badly
     
  48. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Can take Upstart and Far Right out
     
  49. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Beyer rating gives a numerical value to the final run time and speed through the fractions. The better the beyer, the better the horse is rated in the particular race. Allows you to handicap similar distances on different tracks. The wet track shows the condition of the track, higher is sloppier (means they can race in the rain) and Bris tries to do what beyer does, but the distances are not taken into account as much so a sprinter might have the same mark as a horse who did mile and half. Placement is where they finished, win time is obvious. Not sure on Speed-TV, would assume it's a Beyer knock off.
     
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  50. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    you should do the Night School thing bruh