Some thoughts from the past weekend Derby prep races: - I don't care what American Pharoah does on Saturday, Dortmund is the horse to beat on Derby Day. I know he is the horse that Cza likes to win the Derby. And he was impressive again, easily beating a fairly solid field in the Santa Anita Derby. That said, he benefited from Bad Read Sanchez being taken back to last, allowing him to set his own pace. Now he set legitimately fast fractions, but he wasn't being pressured in doing so. The only other horse with speed was One Lucky Dane, and he wasn't ever going to go after his stablemate. I think this caused Bolo and Prospect Park to be a little closer to the pace then they had wanted, which limited their late kick. I still think Bolo is a turf horse, so his performance didn't surprise me, but I was still disappointed with Prospect Park. I've liked his past races too much to get off him after one poor race though. And, assuming he gets in, he'll be a decent price on Derby Day. But he's certainly dropped at least a couple of spots in my mind. - It's close, but I still think I prefer Carpe Diem over Dortmund for the Derby at this time. I know he hasn't run that fast race yet that others have, including Dortmund, but I also don't think we've seen his best performance yet. In the Blue Grass, his jockey was looking behind his shoulder the last half mile of the race. He knew he had the measure of the pace setter Ocho Ocho Ocho at that point, and was trying to save as much energy as he could. He could have won by many more lengths if he wanted to. He's being lined up to peak for the Derby. I don't like anyone else out of this race- I've seen some comparisons for Danzig Moon to Golden Soul/Commanding Curve as a clunk-up closer, but I don't see it with him. There is more quality at the top in this edition of the Derby than in the past two runnings, and I've never thought he's been all that good. And Ocho Ocho Ocho, who finished third, will be better going shorter. - In the Wood, I saw the Frosted that I've been expecting to see since the beginning of the year. His collapse last time out in the Fountain of Youth may be a blessing in disguise, as they did minor surgery to correct a breathing issue in the wake of that race. I don't know what he beat here- El Kabeir and Daredevil are both talented but distance challenged, and a horse like Tencendur running second is a bit of an indictment on the rest of the field (though, to be fair to him, he ran a big race). But Frosted was much the best, and with the breathing problem corrected, I think he is a major contender for the Derby. He's jumped into my top 5, taking Prospect Park's spot for now. My current top 5, in order, would be Carpe Diem, Dortmund, Firing Line, Frosted, and American Pharoah, with Prospect Park and Materiality just on the outside.