Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. The Hebrew Husker

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    So I'll bet 12.00, and hopefully win something as long as it hits something.

    I'm going to get to the track about 2 hours early and throw down on some random shit.
     
  2. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    1-2-7-8 superfecta box over here.
     
  3. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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    Goddamn NBC :facepalm:

    or is it just my cable that's fucked up?
     
  4. POWESHOW

    POWESHOW Social Critic
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  5. Jim Brockmire

    Jim Brockmire I think you're wildly underestimating heroin.
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    If Firing Line didn't draw the 8, I would have picked him as winner.

    Instead I'll go

    Dortmund
    Firing Line
    AP
    Divining Rod

    2-8-1-7
     
  6. bertwing

    bertwing check out the nametag grandma
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    gonna be a sloppy track

    AP should run away with this
     
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  7. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Agree Bert. Just went big on AP. Only real proven slop runner.
     
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  8. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Super easy win
     
  9. bertwing

    bertwing check out the nametag grandma
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    well that was easy
     
  10. POWESHOW

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    Lost my ass today. Lost my ass on the derby, lost my ass everywhere else. FML
     
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  11. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    I would say bet it all on GGG to make it back but the odds are too ridiculous.
     
  12. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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    1American PharoahEspinoza V$3.80$3.40$2.80
    5Tale of VerveRosario J-$19.00$8.80
    7Divining RodCastellano J--$5.20
    2DortmundGarcia M---
    3Mr. ZNakatani C S---
    Replay
    Winning Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC
    $2 Exacta (1-5) Paid $124.40
    $0.50 Trifecta (1-5-7) Paid $246.25
    $0.10 Superfecta (1-5-7-2) Paid $190.69
    $0.10 Pick-6 (13/5,7,8/9/2/2/1) Paid $2,015.73 (6OF6)
    $2 Double (2/1) Paid $34.00
    $0.50 Pick-3 (2/2/1) Paid $35.10 (3OF3)
    $0.50 Pick-5 (5,7,8/9/2/2/1) Paid $1,144.85 (5OF5)
    $0.50 Pick-4 (9/2/2/1) Paid $269.35 (4OF4)
     
  13. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    I made good money on this. Didn't want AP at all today and was thinking of Dortmund. Then the rain came and it was all in on AP.
     
  14. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    I pulled all my personal bets when the rain came in. I couldn't pull my groups bets because getting ahold of 7 people in 5 minutes didn't work.

    Race was an outlier, that was a swamp. But lost $600.
     
  15. Jim Brockmire

    Jim Brockmire I think you're wildly underestimating heroin.
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    Friend of mine hit the exacta straight up on a $10 bet. 622 bones.
     
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  16. Bankz

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    I felt this way going into the Derby... But AP is special... he's going to pull off the triple crown
     
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  17. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Still betting against AP in 3 weeks
     
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  18. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Dallas fucking Stewart beat me again. If he ever has a horse in a big race, I will never ever ever not have him hitting the board.

    I pulled $350 off of bets as soon as el nino kicked in, actually had the above boxed on the super that was a prerace cancel. That race was fucking dumb to bet from the start, I wish I would have stayed away. If it was raining at 3:00 instead of 6:00, AP was an easy pick. Word out now is that Dortmund and Firing Line have never even trained on a sloppy track so that explains that.
     
    #218 Cza, May 17, 2015
    Last edited: May 17, 2015
  19. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    Pimlico was incredible yesterday. Weather was absolutely perfect all day until about 10 minutes before the big one. Hit $10 exactas on the 4th and 5th races (we got there just in time for the 3rd) so I was set for the day after that. Ended up about $450 or so and that's after giving a lot back the last 2 races.

    The rain actually made it a pretty surreal experience in the grandstand apron. Everybody but the diehards and idiots (us) scrambled for cover. We grabbed a bunch of empty boxes from the bar and used them as umbrellas. Got to watch the big one right up on the rail. Pretty badass.

    Getting in an out of Pimlico is a cluster though.
     
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  20. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Dortmund and Firing Line out of the Belmont. Frosted might be headed to the Traverse.

    Looks like the for sures are AP, Mubtahiij, Keen Ice, Tale of Verve, Made from lucky, Materiality, Carpe Diem and Frammento. I'm sure that will grow by 3 or 4 and Frosted up in the air.
     
  21. DollarBillHokie

    DollarBillHokie Greatest Asset: being, like, really smart
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    Is Dortmund not participating so that Baffert has a better shot at the triple crown?
     
  22. bertwing

    bertwing check out the nametag grandma
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    had heard some rumblings that both Dortmund and Firing Line were just gassed, and their performances yesterday seemed to indicate that
     
  23. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    That doesn't have much to do with it. 3 races in 5 weeks is a rough go, don't need to burn your horse out when the triple crown isn't at stake.

    They will probably throw them in something small this summer, get some confidence back and then jump back into it. There's still a lot to race for this year with those two.
     
  24. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    He cost me, too. Wouldn't have been a huge win, but I at least would have gotten something had Divining Rod held on for second.

    At this point, I feel like I have to just throw in any Stewart horse to finish 2nd in a Derby/Preakness. But his prior two Derby runner ups both finished 9th at the Belmont, even though they had the reputation going in as 'Belmont' horses. So I'm still not going to use Tale of Verve in the Belmont.
     
  25. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Breakdown of potential Belmont Horses

    By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman")

    Let the excitement begin! Now that Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner American Pharoah has added the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) (VIDEO) to his résumé, we will have a Triple Crown on the line in the June 6th Belmont Stakes (gr. I) for the second consecutive year. With less than three weeks remaining until the big race, it’s time to get an early start analyzing the field and handicapping the big race. So without further ado, here are my thoughts on nine horses that are preparing to challenge American Pharoah in the final jewel of the Triple Crown:

    CARPE DIEM: The first of three colts trained by Todd Pletcher that are targeting the Belmont Stakes, Carpe Diem won the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) earlier this year before finishing tenth without an excuse in the Kentucky Derby. But if you liked this colt before the Derby, don’t let his poor showing change your opinion, as Todd Pletcher has had great success training Derby also-rans to strong finishes in the Belmont. Since 2009, he has trained Dunkirk (11th in the Derby), Stay Thirsty (12th in the Derby), and Palace Malice (12th in the Derby) to finish first or second in the Belmont, demonstrating that while his runners may fail to fire in the Derby, they usually bring their best race for the Belmont. Additionally, his pedigree (by Giant’s Causeway out of an Unbridled’s Song mare) suggests that the distance of the Belmont should be within his reach, and his excellent tactical speed should be an asset in the Belmont, which tends to favor forwardly-placed runners. He seems to have fallen under the radar since the Derby, but I definitely wouldn’t count him out of the mix for the Belmont. In fact, I view him as one of the main contenders to win the race.

    CONQUEST CURLINATE: The Illinois Derby (gr. III) runner-up showed improved speed when finishing second in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park, rating just 4 ½ lengths off a :46.55 half-mile fraction before rallying to be beaten just a length. From a pedigree perspective, he should be able to handle the distance as well as anyone, being by Curlin out of Higher World, a two-time winner at 8.5 furlongs. She, in turn, was sired by Peaks and Valleys, a two-time grade I winner at nine furlongs. Conquest Curlinate will need to keep moving forward if he is to win the Belmont Stakes, but his improving tactical speed is a very positive sign that bodes well for his chances.

    FRAMMENTO: Trainer Nick Zito has spoiled a pair of potential Triple Crowns over the last dozen years, upsetting Smarty Jones with Birdstone in 2004 and scoring a gate-to-wire win over Big Brown with Da’ Tara in 2008. He might have a live chance to pull an upset again with Frammento, who rallied mildly to finish eleventh in the Derby. The colt possesses a grinding style that should be well-suited to the distance of the Belmont, and while his lack of early speed is a concern—deep closers don’t usually fare well in the Belmont—it’s worth noting that Frammento drilled three furlongs in :36 4/5 on May 14th over the training track at Saratoga, a bullet workout that suggests Nick Zito might be trying to sharpen Frammento’s speed.

    FROSTED: He was one of just a couple horses to put in a serious late run in the Derby, rallying from fifteenth with a half-mile to go to finish fourth, beaten just 3 ¼ lengths by American Pharoah. What was most impressive about his performance was the stellar move he made on the final turn, sweeping past horses while running on the far outside before staying on gamely in the homestretch. Hand-timing the replay of the race, I caught his fourth quarter-mile fraction in about :24 1/5, a stellar time given how wide he was running. He did tire a bit after that, getting his final quarter-mile in only about :26 3/5, but that was understandable given his big run on the final turn. Although he has closed from off the pace in his last two starts, we know from his earlier races that Frosted also possesses good early speed, which should prove useful in the Belmont. The main question is whether or not he can handle the distance of the Belmont, as his full sister Macaroon was a sprinter with definite distance limitations, and Frosted’s tendency to flatten out in the homestretch suggests twelve furlongs might be beyond his best distance.

    KEEN ICE: He put in a mild late run to finish seventh in the Derby, and being by Curlin out of an Awesome Again mare, he is one colt that should have no trouble with the distance of the Belmont. However, his running style of dropping way back early on and passing horses in the homestretch has not been very successful in the Belmont, so that’s something to keep in mind when analyzing his chances.

    MADEFROMLUCKY: He was soundly beaten by American Pharoah in both the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and Arkansas Derby (gr. I), but stepped up with a big effort last time out to win the Peter Pan Stakes by a length over Conquest Curlinate. The second of three Pletcher runners targeting the race, Madefromlucky’s grinding style and respectable early speed are reminiscent of Commissioner, who was beaten a nose in last year’s Belmont Stakes after leading all the way. This is definitely a colt you’ll want to keep an eye on, particularly since he has a good pedigree for the distance and is proven at Belmont Park.

    MATERIALITY: If had to choose one colt that I believe is the most likely to upset American Pharoah, my choice would be Materiality. The lightly-raced colt came into the Derby unbeaten in three starts, all achieved by racing right near the early lead. Thus, when he got off to a slow start in the Derby and found himself at the back of the pack—with lots of dirt getting kicked in his face, which he didn’t seem to care for—it wouldn’t have been a surprise had he thrown in the towel and finished way back. Instead, the colt overcame the adversity, putting in a big run in the final quarter-mile to finish sixth. To me, this colt has everything you want to see in a potential Belmont Stakes winner—a strong pedigree for the distance, a good effort in his last race, and plenty of tactical speed. Throw in the remarkable success that Todd Pletcher has had in the Belmont—he’s trained eight horses to finish in the top three since 2006—and I think Materiality has the best chance to pull off an upset in the Belmont.

    MUBTAAHIJ: The UAE Derby winner ran an even race to finish eighth in the Derby, but was running out of steam after a ground-saving trip. I expect that we’ll see him closer to the early pace in the Belmont, which could help his chances, but after his effort in the Derby, I do have some reservations about his ability to handle the distance.

    TALE OF VERVE: He was a huge longshot in the Preakness Stakes, but rallied from far behind to finish second over a sloppy track. His performance was a major improvement over his previous efforts, but the wet track, fast pace, and sub-par races from several top contenders probably helped his chances. As I have noted several times already, deep closers haven’t had the best of luck in the Belmont, so although Tale of Verve was rallying well at the end of the Preakness, I’m not sure that he will be able to replicate that effort in the Belmont.

    So now it’s your turn! What are your thoughts on the horses targeting the Belmont Stakes?



    Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlo...-belmont-stakes-contenders.aspx#ixzz3aWbxQv8N
     
  26. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    That's a tough group, and would make a very nice betting race (if you are trying to beat American Pharoah). The only horses I can say that I would for sure throw out from that group in the exotics would be Conquest Curlinate, Madefromlucky, and Tale of Verve. If Zito wasn't training Frammento, he'd be in that group too (and he ultimately might be), but he's had too many weird Belmont runners run big for me to not consider him at least a little bit.
     
  27. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Also, he wasn't listed in that article, but War Story is also being pointed to the Belmont. He's another horse I would toss.
     
  28. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Couple of picks for tonight at Hoosier Harness if want to throw some bets in. Race 11 has a post time of 8:30

    Race 11
    Rockin Good is the 2 year old champion in Indiana, coming off a 7 month layoff, but qualified in 1:53.3 with a headwind last week. Class of the 3 year olds, but value is going to suck. Our horse, (3) Rock the Look drew the 3 hole, perennial 2nd place finisher and because of needed to stalk, always has the luxury of an easy first half mile and come blazing home. (4) Nora Rockwell has been hitting the board quite often, 5 of 7 starts and has a nice kick, (2) Best of Jenna (7) Marks Molly and (8) Rockin Cher all have been good out of the gate so far this year, but drawing outside in a race like this is tough, especially with the favorites inside.

    Win Contenders : 1,3
    Exotics: 2,4,7,8


    I'm betting tri key with (1) Rockin Good up top and the other 5 listed. Not sure anyone will pass her and coming out of the #1 hole, should take the lead in the back stretch and not give it up. (3) Rock the Look has been within a nose of Rockin Good a few times, but because it's a qualifier for the final next week, you just want to be top 3. Then again, I always bet a small exacta with her up top so can follow suit if you would like.

    Race 12
    Not getting fancy with this one, (2) Flightcancelled was a candidate last year to take Rockin Good out, but picked up a knock before the final. Coming off a 7 month layoff, qualified superbly and should be ready to go. (1) Feetonthedashboard has looked good early, draws the rail, should be the favorite tonight and I like (4) Image of Felicia and (6) Blues Queen as other possibilities.

    Win Contenders 1,2
    Exotic Contenders 3,4,6,8


    Race 13
    Weakest of the elimination field. I really like (3) Pacific Pancake, seen her a couple of times and has a gear that not many have in this 3 year old Indiana crop. It's a step up in class for her, but should hit the boards. I'll be betting on an inside trip will do her some good after being #9 and #8 the last two trips out and hitting the board. (7) Cool Desire has a good win this year in 53.3 which I think is as fast as this field will go. The wild card is #8 Mystical Treasure who has been off this year so far, but finished 3rd in the final last year as a 2 year old. Sturdy and reliable, hard to not bet her, but going to go against the public on this one and leave her off the board. Should be a decent payout if this one hits.

    Win Contenders 3,8
    Exotics 1,4,7

    My bets in spoiler
    [​IMG]
     
    #228 Cza, May 22, 2015
    Last edited: May 22, 2015
  29. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Also, the Met Mile is looking amazing right now for the Belmont Undercard.

    Early entries are Bayern (BCC Champ), Palice Malice (2014 Met Mile winner), Wicked Strong, Tonalist (2014 Belmont Winner), Honor Code, Sahara Sky (2013 Met Mile winner).

    That's a ridiculous early field.
     
  30. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Getting closer. Usually Hoosier a mess in May when the 2 year olds get going, but about as expected. I'll post results later tonight.
     
  31. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Bets first

    [​IMG]



    So tonight at Hooser, we finished ...

    Race 11

    4,1,3,2

    That sucked because I had 1,3 together and 2 came off at 37-1 to finish fourth, but no hits. Still learning these fillies moves this time of year. Blew it on 4, but had an outside exotic chance above. She had a perfect trip, won't happen again.

    Race 12

    1,6,4,2

    Really liked 1,2 up top, was flightcancelled first stakes race of the year so should have probably bet down, but got the others in order.

    Race 13

    One of those fucking anomaly races, winner had never gone less than 1:55 and went in 1:52 (things that make you go hmm) but the rest finishes in a bizarre order. Called Pacific Pancake, but totally missed here. 6,3,5,7
     
    #231 Cza, May 23, 2015
    Last edited: May 23, 2015
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  32. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Plus add in potentially Race Day (back to back graded stakes wins) and Private Zone (3x Grade 1 winner in NY) to that group (though I think Race Day is still a little bit of a toss up in whether he actually runs).
     
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  33. Rasheed Wallace

    Rasheed Wallace Ball Don't Lie
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    Do you have any plays for tomorrow Cza ?

    Or anyone else that knows a lot more about this than I do.
     
  34. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Nothing for tomorrow, but bet Materiality next weekend.
     
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  35. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Carpe Diem is out of the Belmont. Barring any changes, a field of 8 is now expected:

    American Pharoah
    Frammento
    Frosted
    Keen Ice
    Madefromlucky
    Materiality
    Mubtaahij
    Tale of Verve
     
  36. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    1. Mubtaahij (10-1)

    2. Tale of Verve (15-1)

    3. Madefromlucky (12-1)

    4. Frammento (30-1)

    5. American Pharoah (3-5)

    6. Frosted (5-1)

    7. Keen Ice (20-1)

    8. Materiality (6-1)
     
  37. Bankz

    Bankz I'm a sick guy
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    He's going to win the triple crown... So excited
     
  38. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Excited to watch, not super excited to bet. Love Keen Ice at 20-1 though.

    Box your Tris just in case, they should take in a fuck ton of key bets this weekend.
     
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  39. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
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    Can't wait to bet a tri with Pharaoh not hitting the board
     
  40. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    A good bet, just based on Belmont history and AP's form, is do super straight combos with AP finishing 2nd. Only cost a couple of dollars and could pay pretty big.
     
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  41. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Still not totally sure how I'm going to bet the Belmont, but the only horses I am still considering to use are American Pharoah, Frosted, Mubtaahij, Materiality, and Keen Ice. I'm throwing out Madefromlucky, Tale of Verve, and Frammento.

    I like that they added the Brooklyn to the Saturday card, instead of it's usual Friday, just to have another mile and a half race on the card.
     
  42. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Still think Materiality has the best shot of knocking him off, but I've been entrenched in against AP since last year and starting to think he's just a cut above this 3 year old crop. That being said, had a dream trip in the Derby and got to race in the slop which he loved in the Rebel Stakes and the Preakness so I don't know, but hasn't looked vulnerable at all since his maiden.

    I was all in on Cali Chrome last year after Shared Belief went off the trail and might be a little jaded, but if AP does win the triple crown, I'll really be looking forward to the BCC. I just can't say he's a super horse with the way his last races went. That could obviously change Saturday.
     
    #242 Cza, Jun 3, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2015
  43. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm still looking to beat AP, but the closer we get to the Belmont, the less I like Materiality to do it. I think he'll end up having to do a lot of dirty work, and will be in a tough spot because of it. If he doesn't put pressure on AP, then I think AP will just outrun him, with Materiality ending up no better than 2nd. If he does pressure AP, then I think it could force both horses to tire, and allow a horse that is either stalking the top two or running in mid pack to pick them both off.

    Both scenarios are plausible, but my bets will be geared towards the second scenario. Still have to figure out what my bet will be, but at this time, I like both Frosted and Mubtaahij's chances to win more than I do Materiality (AP is obviously the most likely winner), even though I do believe Materiality will be the 2nd best horse from this field going forward.
     
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  44. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    I love our disagreements. I think Materiality is the only horse besides Frosted to have shot to upset AP, but we will see. We've become great at picking top 4 over the years.
     
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  45. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Seems like every year, our betting/analysis is in line for two of the three Triple Crown races, and then fairly different for the third. We've agreed the first two races, so we were due to disagree.
     
  46. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I decided to key Keen Ice in a trifecta with AP, Mubtaahij, Frosted, and Materiality for my Belmont bets: 7/1,5,6,8/1,5,6,8.....1,5,6,8/7/1,5,6,8......1,5,6,8/1,5,6,8/7

    In other words, Keen Ice needs to finish anywhere in the top 3, while two of the other 4 horses I am using need to fill out the other two spots.
     
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  47. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Going to go with you on that bet. I am also keying Materiality/Frosted up top with those 5 in a few different things. Also, doing some super straights with AP finishing 2nd.

    How are you betting the Met Mile? I am really torn on that race.
     
  48. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I think Tonalist is the most likely winner, but I've always been partial to Kobe's Back, and I'll never get a price on him like this again. So I have a WPS bet on him, along with a Tonalist-Kobe's Back exacta box. May mix Wicked Strong into a tri with those two.
     
  49. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Might never see 7/2 on Bayern again in a short race so keying him up top. Probably with WS, Tonalist and Private Zone. Really is just a pick some numbers and throw them in, field is stacked even without Palice Malice.

    20/1 on General A Rod in race 10, going to throw a couple of WPS bets down there. Just a stacked card top to bottom, even the throwaway races after the Belmont have Social Inclusion and Matterhorn in race 13.