Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. Gallant Knight

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    I think he would be like 8-1 in that and 4/5 in the clever Trevor

    and the end goal for the year is the springboard mile so I’m guessing we stay in okc unless he just needs an extra week
     
  2. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Starting to look a little bit at how the Breeders Cup fields are shaping up. I'm more excited for how the Classic field may turn out than I have been for the last couple of editions, even if it may end up being one of the smaller fields that they have had:

    Likely runners:
    Authentic (1st Kentucky Derby/Haskell)
    By My Standards (1st Oaklawn Handicap/Alysheba)
    Global Campaign (1st Woodward)
    Improbable (1st Whitney/Awesome Again)
    Maximum Security (1st Pacific Classic/Saudi Cup)
    Tacitus (1st Suburban)
    Tiz the Law (1st Belmont Stakes/Travers)
    Tom's d'Etat (1st Stephen Foster/2019 Clark)

    Possible runners:
    Art Collector (1st Blue Grass) - Think he goes in the Dirt Mile
    Happy Saver (1st Jockey Club Gold Cup) - Wouldn't be surprised if they plan more for 2021 rather than run him here
    Higher Power (3rd 2019 Breeders Cup Classic) - Not really sure what his plan is
    Midcourt (1st San Pasqual, multiple G1 placed behind Improbable/Maximum Security) - Also think he ultimately goes in the Dirt Mile
    Swiss Skydiver (1st Preakness/Alabama) - Think she goes in the Distaff

    Even if it ends up being just those top eight - that is a strong group of eight. Improbable is probably the favorite, but I wouldn't think Tiz the Law, Authentic, or Maximum Security would be that far behind him in the betting. And the only horse I'd feel comfortable throwing out of the win spot among those eight is Tacitus, though I am sure I will narrow a few more of those names down as we get closer to the Classic.
     
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  3. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Attached Files:

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  4. Gallant Knight

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    Thanks! That one was pretty impressive

    next week will be a big one

    10/28- Paydiem in a MSW and Kona Katie in an allowance

    10/30 - Gushing Oil in the Clever Trevor

    I expect Paydiem and Gushing Oil to either be favorite or second choice in their races. If there aren’t any Kentucky invaders for the stake Gushing Oil could be 4/5
     
  5. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    Baffert is nothing more than Navarro and Servis with better horses at this point.
     
  6. Gallant Knight

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    If Paydiem is anywhere near 4-1 next Wednesday you should bet enough so that she isn’t. Third in her first start sprinting but we always knew she wanted two turns. Galloped our past the entire field last out. And the race she is in is pretty soft.

    FD25E0B4-70A7-4216-B9EA-D641E6F992F1.png
     
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  7. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Please remind me because I like free money.
     
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  8. Gallant Knight

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    We may be 4/5 in the stake

    70D95410-5159-4A5E-A788-2B848A5E1A6F.jpeg
     
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  9. Gallant Knight

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    And to start off the week added another yearling filly! Would love for the purses from this week to pay for her

     

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  10. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Drew the 2 hole for the Breeders Crown final.

    [​IMG]

    The 3, 5 and 6 horses are problems. Time is lifetime win mark and the qualifiers went in 49.4. I'd be surprised if the final goes below 49 flat. Hoosier has a loooooong stretch compared to most tracks so the plan is 2nd over trip and to follow Warrawee when she makes her move at the half. Sand and Shartin will likely go to the front, want to see a sub 26 1st quarter and minimum 54.2 at the half or we won't catch them up front. Should be coming late in the center of the track and I think she'll go off at 5-1ish so will be a decent win bet and a nice tri key with the favorites.

    You can throw out 7-10 on any bets. I'll try to get something mtsu like up for the Saturday card. Good pots all day though.

    Also good lesson here to not let your kids name your horses. They didn't expect anything out of Shartin N and here we are 4 years later.
     
    #3560 Cza, Oct 27, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
  11. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    bob just can’t catch a break!
     
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  12. Gallant Knight

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    Social media is starting to turn on him

    the people I can’t stand the most in racing are madaket, starlight et al who started calling themselves the avengers

    brutal
     
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  13. Gallant Knight

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    have tried to buy three horses privately for the start of the houston meet. all three were co owned by the owner and the trainer of the horse. all three of the owners wanted to sell but their co-owner trainers didn't want to lose the horse. three separate trainers. sucks.
     
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  14. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    Nothing to see here guys, Bob is a victim.
     
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  15. Gallant Knight

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    if the fbi doesn't get involved nothing will happen.
     
  16. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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    Are Sears and Tim Tetrick still the best on the bike?
     
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  17. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Dunn, Tim Tetrick (Trace is alright), David Miller and Gingras are considered the top tier. We've had Joey on Nola for 2 years now so sticking there. Besides Tetrick, those guys don't get to Hoosier too much so owners are lining up to put Miller and Gingras on whatever they have racing. Those two just drive aggressive not knowing the mounts, straight to the front or first over most times, but you'd do well just betting whatever they are on if you want to cash tickets at the BC.

    Sears cut way back. Old man Wrenn is local, still pretty good at Hoosier.

    We had a Breeders Crown hopeful as a 2 year old filly pacer about 10 years ago and put Gingras on her instead of the usual driver, he took her to the half in 54.3 and about ruined her for the rest of the season. Stick to guys we know after that.
     
    #3567 Cza, Oct 27, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
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  18. Gallant Knight

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  19. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    I’m not here for your facts

    I’m here to put Bob Baffert in prison
     
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  20. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    She opened at 8-1 in the early line and the national guys will sleep on her a bit. Could potentially be a pretty decent WPS bet. Barely any locals at the track to bet her so should get decent odds.

    [​IMG]

    The 3 and 6 were 2nd and 3rd last year in the Aged division. Warrawee won the 3 year old division last year so tough as all hell race. But I don't think anyone outside of those 3, Nola and 9 horse that could hit the board so the exotic payouts might be meh. Maybe Caviart Ally (Champ last year) too, but has been out of form this year.
     
    #3570 Cza, Oct 28, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2020
  21. Cza

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    Going to throw a bunch at Paydiem tonight, try to finance the weekend wagers.

    Thanks for the heads up there.
     
  22. Gallant Knight

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    Sounds like the track is 50/50 on whether they’ll be able to run tonight

    Ice storms in okc
     
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  23. Gallant Knight

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    Just canceled

    no power at the track
     
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  24. Cza

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    How do they work reschedules? Harness they usually just send them off the next morning in place of the qualifiers.
     
  25. Gallant Knight

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    Two horses running for $60k total and Paydiem was going to win

    this sucks
     
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  26. Gallant Knight

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    Not sure
     
  27. Gallant Knight

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    Remington canceled today too.

    i really hope i dont fly up there tomrrow and the races are canceled. would be third stakes race canceled on me this year
     
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  28. Gallant Knight

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    sounds like 85% theyre going to cancel. 116,000 in OKC without power.

    Paydiem and Gushing Oil were like even money to win IMO.
     
  29. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    damn I was hoping to recoup some of my football losses with your horses. now I’m just gonna have to do better a football betting
     
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  30. Gallant Knight

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    Paydiem is running Sunday assuming power is back and I'm guessing they'll just recard the stakes race in a week. That might actually be a blessing in disguise because Gushing Oil was on a 2.5 week turnaround and this would give him closer to what would be ideal between races. But yeah the 4-1 morning line was a joke on him and Paydiem. I would've personally made Gushing Oil more like 7/5 and paydiem 5/2
     
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  31. Gallant Knight

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    Power back on at RP :)
     
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  32. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    xpressbet is doing a $10 at Hoosier tonight and tomorrow for any Breeder's Crown races. If your $10 winner is 2nd or 3rd, get a refund next week. Not a bad add on if anyone was planning on betting it.
     
  33. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Gushing Oil off in about 5 minutes at Remington.
     
  34. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    2 year olds ...
     
  35. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Got boxed in on the rail, finished sixth. Perfect trip, driver hesitated going first over and just got buried. Brutal.

    I think the worst part about Horse Racing is looking forward to something for months, picking apart every possible scenario, prepping a gameplan and making sure everything is good to go. Then in under 2 minutes, something goes wrong or the horse doesn't fire and you're just sitting there wanting to redo it.

    Thanks to Michigan football for the mid day good vibes going in. Let's just forget about this sports weekend.
     
  36. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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    Sorry hub.
     
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  37. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Man, that's just racing, but thanks. Huge achievement to get there, kind of race that makes you want to try to run it again next year so likely bringing her back now for a year. She was beaten by all 6+ year olds and they should be done so if it lines up, might get another season.
     
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  38. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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    We (my dad and his partner) haven't had a horse even make a race in years. Ten years ago they had a dominant guilding trotter. Won Illinois horse of the year 2yr and 3yr old. Finished 2nd in the world trotting derby at 3. Southern Rocketop. Then his sister won a horse of the year one year. Won her stake race at Duquion as well. I get it. I hope they can get another one going because I love watching. But from a small timer in Tennessee, it was a ride.
     
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  39. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Used to have a few at Balmoral about 10 years back. Liked that track, my gf at the time lived in Chicago so would always make a weekend out of it. Good times.

    Hope you get another one going. Had a few that just raced the state fairs for awhile and even those are fun. The well in Michigan totally dried up which sucks. Basically grew up on the state fair/Muskegon race track circuit.
     
  40. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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    I have had some times at Balmoral. 08-09-10. We may have crossed paths. I got several programs put up from there with our horse on the cover.

    My favorite night was when they had some European amateur night. Those jockeys were throwing back at the bar. I hung right in with them as a 22 yr old. Fucking great times.

    They gave us a suite for the biggest race there when Rocky was 3. Forget the name. Anyways. Nothing like walking in that winners circle.

    /Storytimeover
     
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  41. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Last two we had there were 'Joe to Go' and 'Halle Go Lightly' I think. We had all our horses trained by Seekman at the time.

    I'll always remember Joe to Go, if you turned your back on him and he didn't know you, you were getting your shirt or jacket ripped. He was a total asshole, good last quarter though.

    Good set up down there. Quite a shock for the people who always thought it was in Chicago, hour south and you are out in the sticks. They did have a nice winner's circle now that I think about it.
     
    #3591 Cza, Nov 1, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2020
  42. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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    It is a 8 hour drive from us give or take. We would leave on Friday night and get up there at the break of dawn on Saturday. Always stopped at the same diner in Monee or maybe Crete. Good times. Best omelette after sleeping all night in the passenger seat.
     
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  43. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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  44. Gallant Knight

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    Yeah but I liked gushing oil too and that didn’t go well

    I feel very confident about her
     
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  45. Cza

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    I'll take that risk tonight. Good luck man.

    Might need to top off the account though, last night was brutal.
     
    #3595 Cza, Nov 1, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2020
  46. Cza

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    Well, at least someone got a check this weekend.

    I hope they are drug testing that #8 horse as we speak.
     
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  47. Cza

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    Seems to be the theme this weekend.
     
  48. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    My Friday Breeders Cup day thoughts:

    Race 6: Juvenile Turf Sprint – Probably won’t have much (if any) money here, since turf sprints are not a strength of mine, plus the favorite in Golden Pal (14) looks tough. Beyond him, the Indian Summer seems like the most appealing race, so I’ll throw the top two there (Bodenheimer (10) and Cowan (5)) in with Golden Pal.

    Juvenile Turf Sprint selections:
    1. Golden Pal (14) 8-5
    2. Bodenheimer (10) 8-1
    3. Cowan (5) 8-1

    Race 7: Juvenile Turf – I want the European horses here, as I think they look like a pretty strong group while I’m underwhelmed by the US contingent. That said, the biggest name of that group, Battleground (9), may have the most long term potential of any horse in the field given his pedigree and connections, but there are others who I think have run better than him to date, and think he may be overbet. The two horses I’m most interested in are New Mandate (2) and Cadillac (5). Cadillac is the safer of the two to run well, and very well may be the most likely winner in the race. I will narrowly prefer him to New Mandate. I like him a lot as well, but he has a history of breaking poorly, so he isn’t as safe. But he should be a nice price, and I will be using him heavily. I also want to use Sealiway (1), though his best run was on a soft ground which he shouldn’t see this time around, so he’d be third for me. The Lir Jet (14) could be interesting underneath, but don’t really see him as a win candidate.

    Juvenile Turf selections:
    1. Cadillac (5) 6-1
    2. New Mandate (2) 12-1
    3. Sealiway (1) 8-1

    Race 8: Juvenile Fillies – Don’t have a good feel about this race, and will probably be the biggest spread race of the group for me. Princess Noor (7) looks to be favored, and certainly looks good visually when she races, but she has faced absolutely nobody, and her speed figures have not been fast. I don’t have the courage to completely let her beat me in multi race wagers, but from a single race perspective, I’m looking to beat her. The top two to me look to be Simply Ravishing (1) and Dayoutoftheoffice (3). I’ll lean towards Simply Ravishing of the two – both are undefeated are faster than Princess Noor, with Dayoutoftheoffice slightly faster, but Simply Ravishing has experience at Keeneland. Behind those two, in addition to Princess Noor, I could see using Vequist (2) and Girl Daddy (5) as well. Vequist ran a decent 2nd behind Dayoutoftheoffice in the Frizette, and is actually the second fastest horse in the race from a Beyer standpoint, while Girl Daddy won the Pocahontas while not having the cleanest of trips.

    Juvenile Fillies selections:
    1. Simply Ravishing (1) 5-2
    2. Dayoutoftheoffice (3) 5-2
    3. Girl Daddy (5) 6-1

    Race 9: Juvenile Fillies Turf – I like Aunt Pearl (5) quite a bit here. She beat a horse in Spanish Loveaffair (12), who I think is pretty solid in her own right, and did so fairly handily. Bonus points for doing so at Keeneland. The one horse who I think could give her a battle is Campanelle (10), who has won both in the US and Europe, and has a Group 1 win in France. My one concern with her is that she has not run beyond 6 furlongs. One horse I think could be interesting at a price is Oodnadatta (1). She finished 3rd in a Group 1 race in Ireland last time out, but the two she finished behind look like a strong duo, and would be among the favorites had they wanted to try this race. I see an argument for Miss Amulet (2) coming over from Europe as well, but she’s another horse that hasn’t run beyond 6 furlongs, and if I want to take a horse with that background, I prefer Campanelle.

    Juvenile Fillies Turf selections:
    1. Aunt Pearl (5) 3-1
    2. Campanelle (10) 4-1
    3. Oodnadatta (1) 20-1

    Race 10: Juvenile – The Champagne with Jackie’s Warrior (7) and Reinvestment Risk (3) was clearly the best prep race in my eyes for this race. Jackie’s Warrior has defeated Reinvestment Risk twice and did so without too much pressure, and he the most likely winner on the Friday card among the five races. That said, I wouldn’t feel comfortably singling him, as this is his first time around two turns and I do have concerns about him stretching out. There also is some more speed to challenge him early on, which could have an impact on him while increasing in distance. I have fewer questions for Reinvestment Risk at the distance, even if he does clearly have a margin to make up on Jackie’s Warrior. He also doesn’t have to do the dirty work, so I could see him having the better trip of the two. I’ll narrowly go with him on top. I struggle to see any other real win contenders, as I’m not much of an Essential Quality (5) fan, and he figures to be the third horse to take money. The one longer priced horse that I at least have a little interest in is Rombauer (13). I didn’t love the American Pharoah as a prep, but I do see quite a bit of speed in the field, and he is one of the few that looks to come from off of the pace. I don’t see him as a likely winner, but he is very usable underneath.

    Juvenile selections:
    1. Reinvestment Risk (3) 9-2
    2. Jackie’s Warrior (7) 7-5
    3. Rombauer (13) 15-1

    My Friday pick 4 play. Horses in black are my main group, with horses in red having a lower weighting:
    Race 7: 1, 2, 5
    Race 8: 1, 3, 2, 5, 7
    Race 9: 5, 10
    Race 10: 3, 7

    For just the horses in black, a $1 bet would cost $24. Including the horses in red, for a $1 bet, it would cost $60. What I would be more likely to do would be to play with the group of horses in black for more money, and a smaller play including the horses listed in red.
     
  49. Cza

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    Thanks, I need to play catch up from last weekend as I am starting $1k in the hole. I'd be fine getting out of this weekend with PS5 money.

    I like Rombauer too bombing late if the track is playing that way.

    Forgot to post it here, but Nola got clipped in the first turn and had a quarter crack on the front left in the BC race. Just started putting weight on it yesterday and still went in 1:50 flat so she'll be ready to go for next season. Bringing her back for one more year.
     
    #3600 Cza, Nov 6, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2020