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Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Debose4Heisman, Oct 14, 2012.
Took 2nd Half UNT +.5 & Over 27
North Texas needs a red zone offense.
Kstate is at 2.5 and Western K is 3.5 now.
I would be ok with no more scoring and either team kicking a FG to win the game.
Fuck you too :)
My bad. We were up 14 then I started watching. I've changed the channel now that we are down 3. I fear it may be too late. Best chance at a W is overtime.
Need overtime so I can hit all my bets.
MOJO Louisiana Lafayette
After the faggotry of the Chargers last night, now ULL blowing a 20-6 lead, dear god.
What do y'all think about ND/BYU under? I just went ahead and took it at 41
Overtime here would just be terrible for me
I need these pussies by 4, so OT is welcomed.
no OT plz
PERFECT. Now big defense from ULL
Last thing I want now is ULL to get the ball back with their fucking kicker
Second to last thing
Are you fucking kidding me ULL. They are are a terrible throwing team. How the fuck do you not expect screen or draw. My god
Get outscored 24-3 to end the game unbelievable
100% a fumble. Game over. Thank god i bet those 2nd half bets . Fucking horseshit
Man after SD and ULL, knowing I already bet on Oregon, you guys should put your life savings on ASU.
holy fuck, fuck you ULL. there goes my under
nevermind flag on the play, called td back
My bad man! Not trying to pull against you. But that illegal formation penalty was heavenly for my under.
Haha me too and that tackle was in no way in the backfield either.
All good I went 2-1 on the game but lost the juice on the game
Leans for this week:
Toledo +7.5 (locked this in already. Like the number I got. Bad spot for Cincy with a huge Big East game on the road next week and road game against a very good Toledo squad that very well could be undefeated right now. Plus Cincy hasn't played a true road game yet so their record is a little deceiving).
TCU +2.5 (think the public likely backing TT is overreaction from last week in the absolute perfect spot the Red Raiders were in and the terrible spot WVU was in. TCU getting points at home? I like it - plus I love backing home underdogs. They can win with this freshman QB, they proved as much on the road against Baylor).
Oklahoma State - 14.5 (line says monster trap and that Vegas cleans up. This has TT/WVU line written all over it, expect this time Vegas wants the public on the dog. Revenge spot for Oklahoma State after the Cyclones derailed their National title hopes last year).
BYU +14 (too many points in what should be an ugly 17-10/14-10 type game. BYU still has a very good defense, they just played one bad game last week. Sandwich game for ND, as this game came between a huge Stanford OT win and a huge showdown against #9 OU next week on the road).
Arizona -8 (would feel better if I could get this at 7, but still like it at 8. This is the tale of two very different teams depending on where the game is played. Washington is very good at home (beat Stanford, covered against USC) but struggles on the road. Arizona is a similar team. Coming off a bye, back at home so don't see a hangover after the Stanford loss. Wildcats are very good at home - wins over a good Toledo squad, Oklahoma State, and they should have beaten Oregon State and were up very late in that game)
I like Miami but want to wait and see if anything more comes out about their QB situation. Don't think FSU has any business laying almost 3 TDs on the road against an athletic Miami team and after losing to a team Miami beat in NC State. Also like Arizona State and will probably grab if it if gets back to 10 before kickoff.
Where is @King_of_Expo_Park ?
I always value his insight.
damn az state down to 8!
i was going to hop on az state at 10...
I see 7.5
1 unit on AZ state +8.
if it goes up i'll put more units.
yup you read that right
I get line movement and bet action scaring you away from a bet but it just seems odd to wager money on the opposite of what you think is going to happen
I mean if your football opinion tells you with confidence Oregon is going to win by more than 20 points, and you are betting that they win by less than 8, how little confidence do you have in your football opinion? I don't get why you (or anyone else) would trust your football opinion on any other game
team fuck the lines go with the matchup being played.
already on ASU just because I'm riding them until I lose.
Also on WV/EMAW Over 72.5
this is why i lose money when i bet on anything other than line movement or action.
for the most part, i attempt to stick to this method when making bets. there are a lot of times when i am so confident in a game that i'll stick with my instinct, but i've learned enough losing my ass over the years.
so yeah, my betting on az state has everything to do with the action and line movement. nothing to do with actual football knowledge because i think oregon rolls.
see: me betting on texas v. OU
You have a 50/50 chance at being on the right side, might as well pick with conviction and stay with it. Nothing is worse than losing a game where you outsmarted yourself based on line movement. Gonna be a bad feeling if Oregon wins by 27
which is why i am only placing 1 unit.
Ok well at least your explanation acknowledges it. I wouldn't do that myself but I can respect your reasoning.
Wow. I hadn't looked at lines today until reading this. I saw the line briefly jump to 11 (surprising since I was just hoping for 10) on BetUS and locked in ASU before it went back to 9.5, which is what it looked to be at all my sites yesterday afternoon. That looks like some serious RLM.
Part of me wants to dance with the girl who brought me, but I feel that Oregon wins that one handily.
I am going to sit and watch it. looking for an Oregon 2H play. In games that were still tight at half, they have outscored their opponents 92-14. If the game is a blow out....then i just watch the ducks run
Thoughts on the Cal-Stanford game? 2.5 seems pretty low, is the public on Stanford?
just from watching each team play, I don't see oregon rolling like a few people have said. Their offense can be driven on. ball control. etc etc. they could blow ASU out. But they could also lose SU
all over stanford
yes. I'm on Cal.
That one really has me scratching my head. Zach Maynard usually goes full retard when he gets pressured and Stanford is one of the better teams at getting in the opponents backfields. Majority of the time when Maynard has a mediocre to bad game, Cal gets throttled.
I haven't bet any of these yet, but I've been thinking along the same lines on all of them.
Tech crapping its pants a week after a big upset win (rankings-wise; I know the line was low) would be the most Tuberville thing ever. You have to think Boykin is going to improve from week to week after getting few snaps before the Pachall suspension. I don't think this TCU team is as good as previous ones, but they're not as bad as they looked against ISU---they lost the turnover battle 5-1 (including two fumbles) with a first-time FR starter at QB, yet they were only down 7 in the middle of the 4th until a pick-6 and dominated the yardage and first down battles. I can also see Tech being overvalued after that WVU win. However, I do worry about TCU giving up so many big plays the last couple weeks.
Seeing a line that is begging the public to take Iowa State leads me to believe that OSU may be undervalued. I don't read much into last week's KU game (bad weather, with a really long rain delay, post-UT emotional letdown), and last week's other games (OU-UT, WVU-TT) probably made OSU's loss to Texas look worse than it was by virtue of devaluing Texas (UT isn't that bad). The OSU-Arizona opener was also a fluky game (OSU was lighting it up when they weren't turning it over). And yes, the revenge factor would make you believe that they're going to be focused and willing to pour it on, especially after playing so poorly the last two games.
I'm totally on board with your BYU-ND logic--I also have a hard time seeing ND score enough points to cover two TDs versus that good of a defense, and they're surely looking ahead to OU--but I'm a bit worried that the public is so heavily backing BYU (according to SBR). The public isn't that smart, so what am I missing?
Nebraska Northwestern is back up to 6.5, interesting