Week 8 College Football

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Debose4Heisman, Oct 14, 2012.

  1. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Took 2nd Half UNT +.5 & Over 27
     
  2. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta United

    North Texas needs a red zone offense.
     
  3. Swt

    Swt Well-Known Member
    TMB OG

    Kstate is at 2.5 and Western K is 3.5 now.
     
  4. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta United

    I would be ok with no more scoring and either team kicking a FG to win the game.
     
  5. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Fuck you too :)
     
  6. GuyOnA_Buffalo

    GuyOnA_Buffalo Orphans, Cougars & What Not
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    My bad. We were up 14 then I started watching. I've changed the channel now that we are down 3. I fear it may be too late. Best chance at a W is overtime.
     
  7. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Need overtime so I can hit all my bets.
     
  8. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
    Staff Donor

    MOJO Louisiana Lafayette
     
  9. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    After the faggotry of the Chargers last night, now ULL blowing a 20-6 lead, dear god.
     
  10. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    What do y'all think about ND/BYU under? I just went ahead and took it at 41
     
  11. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    Overtime here would just be terrible for me
     
  12. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
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    I need these pussies by 4, so OT is welcomed.
     
  13. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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  14. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    PERFECT. Now big defense from ULL
     
  15. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Last thing I want now is ULL to get the ball back with their fucking kicker
     
  16. GuyOnA_Buffalo

    GuyOnA_Buffalo Orphans, Cougars & What Not
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    Second to last thing
     
  17. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Are you fucking kidding me ULL. They are are a terrible throwing team. How the fuck do you not expect screen or draw. My god
     
  18. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
    Staff Donor

    Get outscored 24-3 to end the game unbelievable
     
  19. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
    Staff Donor

    100% a fumble. Game over. Thank god i bet those 2nd half bets . Fucking horseshit
     
  20. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
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    Man after SD and ULL, knowing I already bet on Oregon, you guys should put your life savings on ASU.
     
  21. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
    Donor TMB OG

    holy fuck, fuck you ULL. there goes my under
     
  22. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
    Donor TMB OG

    nevermind flag on the play, called td back
     
    FadeMe likes this.
  23. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta United

    My bad man! Not trying to pull against you. But that illegal formation penalty was heavenly for my under.
     
  24. rockportraider

    rockportraider Well-Known Member

    Haha me too and that tackle was in no way in the backfield either.
     
  25. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    All good I went 2-1 on the game but lost the juice on the game
     
  26. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Leans for this week:

    Toledo +7.5 (locked this in already. Like the number I got. Bad spot for Cincy with a huge Big East game on the road next week and road game against a very good Toledo squad that very well could be undefeated right now. Plus Cincy hasn't played a true road game yet so their record is a little deceiving).

    TCU +2.5 (think the public likely backing TT is overreaction from last week in the absolute perfect spot the Red Raiders were in and the terrible spot WVU was in. TCU getting points at home? I like it - plus I love backing home underdogs. They can win with this freshman QB, they proved as much on the road against Baylor).

    Oklahoma State - 14.5 (line says monster trap and that Vegas cleans up. This has TT/WVU line written all over it, expect this time Vegas wants the public on the dog. Revenge spot for Oklahoma State after the Cyclones derailed their National title hopes last year).

    BYU +14 (too many points in what should be an ugly 17-10/14-10 type game. BYU still has a very good defense, they just played one bad game last week. Sandwich game for ND, as this game came between a huge Stanford OT win and a huge showdown against #9 OU next week on the road).

    Arizona -8 (would feel better if I could get this at 7, but still like it at 8. This is the tale of two very different teams depending on where the game is played. Washington is very good at home (beat Stanford, covered against USC) but struggles on the road. Arizona is a similar team. Coming off a bye, back at home so don't see a hangover after the Stanford loss. Wildcats are very good at home - wins over a good Toledo squad, Oklahoma State, and they should have beaten Oregon State and were up very late in that game)

    I like Miami but want to wait and see if anything more comes out about their QB situation. Don't think FSU has any business laying almost 3 TDs on the road against an athletic Miami team and after losing to a team Miami beat in NC State. Also like Arizona State and will probably grab if it if gets back to 10 before kickoff.
     
  27. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    Where is @King_of_Expo_Park ?
    I always value his insight.
     
  28. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    damn az state down to 8!
    i was going to hop on az state at 10...
     
    Swt and wes tegg like this.
  29. Swt

    Swt Well-Known Member
    TMB OG

    I see 7.5
     
  30. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    1 unit on AZ state +8.
    if it goes up i'll put more units.
     
  31. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 running thru the house with a pickle in my mouth
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    what
     
  32. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    yup you read that right
     
  33. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 running thru the house with a pickle in my mouth
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    Nebraska CornhuskersCharlotte HornetsCleveland BrownsDetroit TigersNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    I get line movement and bet action scaring you away from a bet but it just seems odd to wager money on the opposite of what you think is going to happen

    I mean if your football opinion tells you with confidence Oregon is going to win by more than 20 points, and you are betting that they win by less than 8, how little confidence do you have in your football opinion? I don't get why you (or anyone else) would trust your football opinion on any other game
     
  34. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    team fuck the lines go with the matchup being played.

    already on ASU just because I'm riding them until I lose.

    Also on WV/EMAW Over 72.5
     
  35. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
    Donor TMB OG

    this is why i lose money when i bet on anything other than line movement or action.
    for the most part, i attempt to stick to this method when making bets. there are a lot of times when i am so confident in a game that i'll stick with my instinct, but i've learned enough losing my ass over the years.

    so yeah, my betting on az state has everything to do with the action and line movement. nothing to do with actual football knowledge because i think oregon rolls.

    see: me betting on texas v. OU
     
    Aqueer Abdullah likes this.
  36. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew England Patriots

    You have a 50/50 chance at being on the right side, might as well pick with conviction and stay with it. Nothing is worse than losing a game where you outsmarted yourself based on line movement. Gonna be a bad feeling if Oregon wins by 27
     
    wes tegg likes this.
  37. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    which is why i am only placing 1 unit.
     
  38. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 running thru the house with a pickle in my mouth
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    Ok well at least your explanation acknowledges it. I wouldn't do that myself but I can respect your reasoning.
     
  39. Grady

    Grady New Member

    Wow. I hadn't looked at lines today until reading this. I saw the line briefly jump to 11 (surprising since I was just hoping for 10) on BetUS and locked in ASU before it went back to 9.5, which is what it looked to be at all my sites yesterday afternoon. That looks like some serious RLM.
     
  40. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    Atlanta BravesDenver BroncosChicago BlackhawksMississippi Rebels

    Part of me wants to dance with the girl who brought me, but I feel that Oregon wins that one handily.
     
  41. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
    Donor TMB OG

    I am going to sit and watch it. looking for an Oregon 2H play. In games that were still tight at half, they have outscored their opponents 92-14. If the game is a blow out....then i just watch the ducks run
     
  42. mb711

    mb711 West Coast Barner
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    Thoughts on the Cal-Stanford game? 2.5 seems pretty low, is the public on Stanford?
     
  43. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    just from watching each team play, I don't see oregon rolling like a few people have said. Their offense can be driven on. ball control. etc etc. they could blow ASU out. But they could also lose SU
     
  44. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
    Donor TMB OG

    all over stanford
     
  45. Swt

    Swt Well-Known Member
    TMB OG

    yes. I'm on Cal.
     
  46. mb711

    mb711 West Coast Barner
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    That one really has me scratching my head. Zach Maynard usually goes full retard when he gets pressured and Stanford is one of the better teams at getting in the opponents backfields. Majority of the time when Maynard has a mediocre to bad game, Cal gets throttled.
     
  47. Grady

    Grady New Member

    I haven't bet any of these yet, but I've been thinking along the same lines on all of them.

    Tech crapping its pants a week after a big upset win (rankings-wise; I know the line was low) would be the most Tuberville thing ever. You have to think Boykin is going to improve from week to week after getting few snaps before the Pachall suspension. I don't think this TCU team is as good as previous ones, but they're not as bad as they looked against ISU---they lost the turnover battle 5-1 (including two fumbles) with a first-time FR starter at QB, yet they were only down 7 in the middle of the 4th until a pick-6 and dominated the yardage and first down battles. I can also see Tech being overvalued after that WVU win. However, I do worry about TCU giving up so many big plays the last couple weeks.

    Seeing a line that is begging the public to take Iowa State leads me to believe that OSU may be undervalued. I don't read much into last week's KU game (bad weather, with a really long rain delay, post-UT emotional letdown), and last week's other games (OU-UT, WVU-TT) probably made OSU's loss to Texas look worse than it was by virtue of devaluing Texas (UT isn't that bad). The OSU-Arizona opener was also a fluky game (OSU was lighting it up when they weren't turning it over). And yes, the revenge factor would make you believe that they're going to be focused and willing to pour it on, especially after playing so poorly the last two games.

    I'm totally on board with your BYU-ND logic--I also have a hard time seeing ND score enough points to cover two TDs versus that good of a defense, and they're surely looking ahead to OU--but I'm a bit worried that the public is so heavily backing BYU (according to SBR). The public isn't that smart, so what am I missing?
     
  48. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 running thru the house with a pickle in my mouth
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    Nebraska Northwestern is back up to 6.5, interesting