Official Horse Racing Thread

Travers post positions have been drawn. Should be a good betting race. Tapwrit is your morning line favorite.

1. Cloud Computing (8-1)
2. Giuseppe the Great (20-1)
3. West Coast (4-1)
4. Tapwrit (7-2)
5. Good Samaritan (5-1)
6. Girvin (10-1)
7. Always Dreaming (6-1)
8. Lookin at Lee (30-1)
9. McCraken (12-1)
10, Irap (8-1)
11. Gunnevera (20-1)
12. Fayeq (30-1)

 

I'm leaning towards Irap right now. Not a ton of early speed in the race, and I don't want to take Always Dreaming.

 

Some quick picks for Saratoga. Lot of competitive races, but had trouble finding a lot of real big price horses that I like with the exception of Wild Shot in the Allen Jerkins (formerly King's Bishop). Really like the cut back for him, and I considered picking him on top. Just couldn't pull the trigger on putting him above Practical Joke. Went with Irap over Cloud Computing, but will use them equally- just think Cloud Computing will get bet slightly more off of name recognition and the Chad Brown factor.

Also worth watching is the first race. Travers day traditionally cards a 2YO maiden race that ends up being one of the strongest maiden races of the meet, if not the strongest. It's pretty common for a horse to come out of one of these maiden races and turn out to be a quality horse. The horse I would keep an eye on is the Chad Brown horse, Good Magic (8), who should be favored. Now he won't actually be my top pick in the race- Hazit (2) is my pick, as his pedigree suggests he'll be a sprinter-miler and from a strong 2YO family, while I think Good Magic will ultimately want to go longer. But don't be surprised if Good Magic ends up being a horse you hear about later this year when distances increase, and especially next year along the Triple Crown Trail.

Race 6: Personal Ensign

1. Forever Unbridled (4) 7-2
2. Songbird (2) 2-5

Race 7: Ballerina

1. Curlin’s Approval (2) 4-1
2. By The Moon (4) 3-1
3. Paulassilverlining (3) 2-1

Race 8: H. Allen Jerkins

1. Practical Joke (1) 5-2
2. Wild Shot (4) 30-1
3. American Anthem (9) 2-1

Race 9: Forego

1. Divining Rod (4) 5-1
2. Drefong (10) 5-2
3. Mind Your Biscuits (6) 3-1

Race 10: Sword Dancer

1. Idaho (7) 2-1
2. Sadler’s Joy (3) 5-1
3. Money Multiplier (5) 7-2

Race 11: Travers

1. Irap (10) 8-1
2. Cloud Computing (1) 8-1
3. Good Samaritan (5) 5-1
4. Gunnevera (11) 20-1

Race 12: Ballston Spa

1. Lady Eli (1) 4-5
2. Dickinson (6) 6-1
3. Antonoe (5) 3-1

 

Hit or miss day for me. West Coast winning killed all of my Travers and multi-race bets. I only used him underneath.

Had Irap or Gunnevera won, it would have turned into a very good day for me.

 

Songbird has been retired.

 

Going to throw this out there, since Canterbury rarely has any true graded stakes quality horses, but they have had a 2YO filly named Amy's Challenge running there this summer that looks to be pretty damn good. There are only two performances by a 2YO this year (male or female) that has exceeded a 90 Beyer, and she has both of them- she had a 91 in her debut and a 92 in the Shakopee Juvenile. And the main horse she beat in that race, Mr. Jagermeister, finished second behind The Tabulator in his prior start, and The Tabulator came back to win the first race that earns Kentucky Derby points (the Iroquois).

She is targeting the Alcibiades at Keeneland, and if all goes well, could be a factor in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.

 

There were three Grade 1 dirt races at 1 1/16 miles today at Santa Anita.

For 3YO and older fillies: Paradise Woods won in 1:44:34
For 2YO fillies: Moonshine Memories won in 1:46:32
For 2YO colts: Bolt d'Oro won in 1:43:54

Think we may have a clear favorite for the Breeders Cup Juvenile and an early Kentucky Derby favorite.

 

Breeders Cup Pre-enrtries were released today. These are the 14 pre-entered into the Classic.

Arrogate (Baffert)
Churchill (O'Brien) - also pre-entered in Mile
Collected (Baffert)
Cupid (Baffert) - also pre-entered in Dirt Mile
Diversify (Violette, Jr.)
Gun Runner (Asmussen)
Gunnevera (Sano)
Keen Ice (Pletcher)
Mubtaahij (Baffert)
Pavel (O'Neill)
War Decree (O'Brien) - also pre-entered in Dirt Mile
War Story (Navarro)
West Coast (Baffert)
Win the Space (Papaprodromou)

I would think Cupid would be more likely to go in the Dirt Mile, and I think at least one of the O'Brien horses will go to their other race- War Decree is the more likely of the two to run in the Classic, from what I've seen. Diversify is only entered here, but his connections are still up in the air if they are even going to the Breeders Cup.

EDIT: And some sites are indicating that both War Story and Win the Space are pre-entered in other races. Haven't seen it listed as such on the Breeders Cup website, yet.

 

Post positions and odds for the Classic:

1. Arrogate (2-1)
2. War Decree (30-1)
3. Win The Space (30-1)
4. War Story (30-1)
5. Gun Runner (9-5)
6. Mubtaahij (6-1)
7. Churchill (15-1)
8. West Coast (6-1)
9. Gunnevera (30-1)
10. Pavel (20-1)
11. Collected (6-1)

 

It's usually one of the least interesting races of Breeders Cup weekend, but I actually think this is a really strong Dirt Mile. Actually excited to watch that one.

Bolt d'Oro is the easiest single of any race. I'd expect 3-5 or 4-5 on him.

Still sorting out my thoughts, but two longer prices in the Classic I'm at least a little interested in using underneath are War Decree and Gunnevera. Churchill is probably the better O'Brien horse, but War Decree is probably more likely to take to the dirt than Churchill is.

 

I'd be surprised if it wasn't one of Gun Runner or Arrogate winning the race, and I'm favoring Arrogate. I think you can point at one of two things for Arrogate's subpar showings at Del Mar earlier this year- either it was the track, or it was him unable to recover from the Dubai trip. If it is the first case, then he's up against it. But if it just took him longer than expected to get back into shape after coming back from Dubai, and now he's worked himself back into close to his best form, then he's far and away the most likely winner in a race where he won't be favored. I'm banking on this being the case, and going with him. Plus, it's very possible that Gun Runner is Medaglia d'Oro, part 2. Top class horse at 1 1/8 miles, but something just lacks a bit at 1 1/4.

I know he has won at this track and distance, but I still don't trust Collected going 1 1/4 miles, especially when he'll have to deal with pace pressure from Gun Runner (which he didn't have anything close to deal with in the Pacific Classic). I'm throwing him out completely. Don't hate West Coast as much as Collected, but don't like him that much either, as this is a pretty big step up in class and he has had everything his own way.

I still like Gunnevera and War Decree as price horses to fool around with in exotics.

 

Also, I think it is too much, too soon for him in this race, so I won't be using him, but of all the horses in the Classic, I think Pavel will be the one who emerges as the top older horse in 2018, surpassing West Coast. He has a bright future.

 

Some price horses I am interested in: Zelzal (Mile), Ransom the Moon (Sprint), Gio Game (Juvenile Fillies). All of them are horses I am flirting with picking on top that are 12-1 or greater on the morning line.

 

My picks:

-Friday-

Juvenile Fillies Turf:
1. September (10) 6-1
2. Significant Form (8) 8-1
3. Happily (2) 9-2

Dirt Mile:
1. Sharp Azteca (3) 9-2---my most likely winner on Friday
2. Accelerate (8) 7-2
3. Practical Joke (10) 6-1

Juvenile Turf:
1. James Garfield (7) 6-1
2. Beckford (5) 8-1
3. Voting Control (8) 8-1

Distaff:
1. Paradise Woods (7) 9-2
2. Unbridled Forever (6) 4-1
3. Stellar Wind (2) 5-2

-Saturday-

Juvenile Fillies:
1. Gio Game (4) 15-1
2. Heavenly Love (1) 9-2
3. Alluring Star (9) 6-1

Turf Sprint:
1. Lady Aurelia (3) 5-2
2. Marsha (6) 7-2
3. Cotai Glory (8) 20-1

Filly and Mare Sprint:
1. Unique Bella (11) 9-5
2. Skye Diamonds (12) 5-1
3. Constellation (8) 15-1

Filly and Mare Turf:
1. Lady Eli (9) 5-2
2. Queen’s Trust (10) 12-1
3. Senga (2) 20-1

Sprint:
1. Ransom the Moon (9) 12-1
2. Roy H (8) 7-2
3. Mind Your Biscuits (6) 6-1

Mile:
1. Zelzal (6) 20-1---my favorite longshot of the weekend
2. World Approval (5) 9-2
3. Ribchester (10) 7-2

Juvenile:
1. Bolt d’Oro (11) 9-5---my most likely winner on Saturday
2. Good Magic (6) 8-1
3. Solomini (2) 6-1

Turf:
1. Highland Reel (3) 5-1
2. Cliffs of Moher (6) 20-1
3. Ulysses (5) 7-2

Classic:
1. Arrogate (1) 2-1
2. Gun Runner (5) 9-5
3. War Decree (2) 30-1
4. Gunnevera (9) 30-1

If you are playing multi race wagers, the horses I would consider singling (in order of confidence) are Bolt d'Oro (Juvenile), Lady Aurelia (Turf Sprint), Unique Bella (Filly and Mare Sprint), and Sharp Azteca (Dirt Mile). Races that I have the weakest opinions on are the Juvenile Fillies and both Juvenile Turf races.

 

I've always been a Mor Spirit fan (he was my Derby pick last year), and obviously he'll win if he runs a repeat of the Met Mile. But the fact that he hasn't run since the Met Mile is a major red flag for me, especially since his connections never said it was the plan to rest him all the way up to the Breeders Cup. He's going to have to beat me.

I'm concerned that Mind Your Biscuits' form has tailed off, but that's baked into the price a little bit, and I want horses that will be off of the pace (though I really wanted to like Takaful), which he should be. Just prefer the two California based horses over him- Roy H has been the most consistent sprinter this year, and Ransom the Moon has the Grade 1 win at Del Mar, should get a good setup, and will be a better price. Wish Ransom the Moon would have put in a little more of a kick last time out, but that race seemed to favor horses forwardly placed. Drefong may be the favorite I am most against this weekend.

100% agree on Abel Tasman. She's another horse I think might be tailing off in form a bit, and I don't see a ton of pace behind Paradise Woods.

 

A couple pick 4 plays. Numbers in black are my A horses, numbers in red are my B's- I'll need at least 3 of my A's for me to hit it.

Friday Pick 4:
Race 6: 2, 8, 10, 11, 1
Race 7: 3, 8, 10
Race 8: 5, 7, 8, 4, 6, 10
Race 9: 6, 7, 2, 5
Cost: $99 ($0.50 base). If you want to do a bet with just the A horses, it would be $12 for a $0.50 base.

Saturday Late Pick 4:
Race 9: 4, 5, 6, 10
Race 10: 11
Race 11: 3, 5, 6, 1, 4, 9
Race 12: 1, 5, 2
Cost: $42 ($0.50 base). For just the A horses it would be $12 for a $0.50 base.

 

Well today sucked. Could have salvaged something with a Sharp Azteca win or even a Paradise Woods second. Both were pushed enough by Gato del Oro/Champagne Room on the front end to cost me.

I still don't get what caused Mendelsohn to be bet so hard, but they obviously knew something about him. Had to be more than just O'Brien and being a half sibling to Beholder.

 

My opinions on August 26th would have been better for the Breeders Cup than my actual Breeders Cup opinions were.

 

Curious to see Avery Island in the Remsen. Already a graded winner, and bred well for distance. But I want to see him run a fast race. Not scared to bet against him- I kind of like the Delacour horse, Vouch.

Cigar Mile should be fun, but I don't like that Practical Joke is being retired after the race. He's good, but he's not so good that he should be a horse that doesn't run as a 4YO to go to stud, given that he has no injury issues.

Claiming Crown probably makes the most sense at the end of the year, since it garners more attention now and can get lost during the summer with everything else going on. I miss having it at Canterbury, though.

 

Yeah I still prefer Sharp Azteca, but I do think the one turn does make it closer call with him and Practical Joke.

A one turn mile is what Practical Joke wants. Really wish he was sticking around for the Met Mile next year.