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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.
Not the final field, but this is what the tentative Preakness field could look like. Rich Strike, Epicenter, and Simplification are confirmed from the Derby to run in the Preakness, and Zandon is still under consideration but there hasn't been a decision made regarding him yet.
I would think Epicenter would be a solid favorite. Definitely a field that has less early speed than the Derby, so I don't see Rich Strike getting anywhere near as good of a setup as he had in the Derby.
Rich Strike (1st Kentucky Derby)
Epicenter (2nd Kentucky Derby)
Simplification (4th Kentucky Derby)
Secret Oath (1st Kentucky Oaks)
Early Voting (2nd Wood Memorial)
Un Ojo (1st Rebel Stakes)
Skippylongstocking (3rd Wood Memorial)
Creative Minister (1st Churchill allowance race)
Zandon (3rd Kentucky Derby)
Rattle N Roll (4th Louisiana Derby)
Shake Em Loose (1st Private Terms)
And Rich Strike's connections now decide to skip the Preakness and wait for the Belmont.
Have good friends who live in Baltimore so a group of us are heading up Friday AM for golf, Orioles and Preakness Saturday. Appreciate whatever advice folks have here for Saturday.
Pimlico is a dump. Don't expect to see many horses if you do the whole infield thing. Probably my fault but we thought we bought seats only for the "seats" to be a couple of desks in one of betting rooms, so don't do that.
Do you have tickets? If not what is your budget?
I had more fun at the Preakness than at the derby last year
My buddy that lives there has us tickets. He said we're in the grandstand lower box.
Just wait for mtsucalico85 to post his picks. Guy paid for my derby trip with his Oaks trifecta call.
he is pretty sharp on the big weekends for sure
I was planning on giving the Preakness card a look through Friday evening.
Yeah I've gotten more in the mold of being a 'weekend warrior' type recently. Combination of my weekdays being busier now and the realization that when I do bet, I have historically had a better ROI when I bet stakes races as opposed to maiden/allowance/claiming races.
Appreciate whatever picks you offer. Looking forward to tomorrow. Hitting up Camden Yards tonight.
Gallant Knight can you elaborate on your experience at Preakness last year? Glad you have at least had a good time previously.
we were in the chalet and i was with some people who are big into horse racing and we got invited to the after party with the stronarchs etc
was going to say if yall had a big budget to get tickets in the chalet and it will be an incredible experience
yall will still have a good time
DRF out for the Preakness: http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Preakness22.pdf
I don't want to corrupt my guy mtsucalico85 but I love the 5 horse.
Secret oath is what I’ll load up on
I would use in exotics for sure, but I don't think she has the pace to win.
For some reason I have a trust in her
Preakness Stakes thoughts: Epicenter (8) is clearly the horse to beat, and I just think he's better than this group if he runs back to his past 3 races. I'm not terribly concerned about the quick turn around for him, as Asmussen has done just fine running horses back on two weeks of rest, and Derby runners have typically carried their form from the Derby to Pimlico. The pace will be more beneficial to him this time around. He's going to be my pick, and he'll carry most of the weight for me. But if you are picking him, I don't think the value is going to be there on the win end - I think you have to look at multi race wagers and exotics in this case.
If Epicenter were to lose, I don't think Secret Oath (4) or Simplification (1) are the ones that will do it. Secret Oath will be the horse I'm most against of the favorites, and will be trying to beat her out of the exacta completely. Her Oaks was a good effort, but it wasn't the fastest Oaks we've ever seen, and in her one other effort against the boys, she finished 3rd in a mediocre Arkansas Derby. I could maybe see Simplification in 2nd, but I don't see the scenario that he turns the table on Epicenter, and even if Epicenter just didn't show up for some reason, there are others I prefer.
Outside of Epicenter, the two I am most interested in is Early Voting (5) and Creative Minister (2). If Epicenter doesn't win, Early Voting seems like he'd clearly be the horse best positioned to get the win. I'm not running to bet him at his 7-2 morning line, but if for some reason the public goes heavy on Epicenter/Secret Oath and Early Voting was to drift to 6-1 or better, I think he'd be the best win bet in the field. In multi race wagers, while Epicenter would heavily leaned upon, I'd want to use Early Voting as well. As for Creative Minister, I see him as a lightly raced horse who is improving quickly, and I don't expect him to have the bandwagon that the top four choices on the morning line will have. My goal will be to get him into the trifecta, mostly underneath Epicenter, but I will allow for some combinations in case Epicenter does not win. The only other longshot that I think may be worth underneath is Skippylongstocking (9), but even a best case scenario for him, I'd be hard-pressed to get him further than 2nd or 3rd.
1. Epicenter (8) 6-5
2. Early Voting (5) 7-2
3. Creative Minister (2) 10-1
4. Simplification (1) 6-1
My trifecta with Epicenter in 1st and Creative Minister hitting the board will be the pair of bets below:
1, 4, 5, 9
1, 5, 9
In addition, to provide a little coverage in case Epicenter does not win, I'll use him in a trifecta box with the other two horses I like: 2, 5, 8
Some Preakness undercard thoughts:
I don't see a whole lot during the first half of the card that is all that interesting. The likeliest winner on the day to me is in the 5th race with Technical Analysis (4), as I just don't see anyone to challenge her on the front end. I wouldn't expect to get much of a price, but the only other horse that I think is in her league is Crystal Cliffs (2), and the lack of a pace will hurt that one. Technical Analysis is 7-5 on the morning line, but frankly I think 4-5 on her would represent value on the win end given the advantage she should have.
Race 5 win bet: Technical Analysis (4) (morning line 7-5)
The card starts to get more interesting for me beginning with race 8. This also looks like a turf race without much in the way of pace, and I think that could work against the favored Set Piece (3). I like Atone (6) in this spot. He finished ahead of Set Piece last time in the Makers Mark Mile (another race that wasn't loaded with speed), so he's proven he's capable with running of a horse of that quality. I just think Set Piece will have too much to do to catch him
Race 8 win bet: Atone (6) (morning line 5-2)
The price I like the most on the day comes in the 9th race, the Chick Lang. I really like Chasing Time (6) in this spot. His form is dirtied up based off of running in races like the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby when he never wanted to go that far. The big cut back will be beneficial for him, and on top of that, I see a lot of talented speed in this race. I could see horses like Cogburn (1), Old Homestead (5), and Little Vic (9) all jostling with each other early and setup a pace that is too quick for them. I think Chasing Time will prove to be the best finisher at this distance, and he can take advantage of it. While the straight win bet will be the main play for me, I may connect him in exactas with those three I mentioned above, as I do think those are talented (I prefer Little Vic the most of that group), so if you wanted to single out one exacta box to play, it would be the 6-9 for me.
Race 9 win bet: Chasing Time (6) (morning line 12-1)
Don't have a huge opinion on the 10th race. I like Riot House (7) over Ready to Purrform (5), and I'd be willing to bet Riot House at his 4-1 morning line. But not sure I'll have much money on it outside of starting the pick 4 with the 5 and 7 horses.
With race 11, I may take a shot with Ruggs (10). I don't think there are any world beaters in here, and prior to getting on track last time out, he was being drubbed by horses like Zozos and We The People who would lay over this field. He can compete against this group at what should be a fair price. In the pick 4, I'll also use Ethereal Road (1) and Mr. Jefferson (6)
Race 11 win bet: Ruggs (10) (morning line 10-1)
Race 12 is a turf sprint, and I suck at them so I will not be betting the race outside of having Carotari (2) and Seven Scents (3) in the third leg of the pick 4 that leads into the Preakness.
My late pick 4 ticket (a $1 base bet = $24):
Race 10: 5, 7
Race 11: 1, 6, 10
Race 12: 2, 3
Race 13: 5, 8
It's early in the day, but early speed horses are doing very well at Pimlico on the dirt so far. 2 of the 3 pace setters have won so far (including a 10-1 shot), while the pace setter in the opening race was 2nd beaten by a neck at 9-1 (defeated by the favorite who was running alongside him throughout the race).
Was similar last year around Preakness time.
Also seems like the early betting is tied up in the Rich Strike narrative where anyone can win the race. It may actually make Epicenter a playable win price, which would be a bonus. He is 2-1 right now while a horse like Fenwick is something like 9-1. That's absurd.
Where I watched the Preakness from last year. On the turf course grass right at the finish line
was in the chalet on the right for most of the day. Open bar and food from local chefs
f that was fun
If there was any doubt there was a speed bias on the dirt, that just eliminated it.
If anything, I'm more interested in Chasing Time now at some of the big Saratoga 3YO sprint races this summer.
There is one dirt race left between now and the Preakness, which is Race 11. In my pick 4, I had used the 1 and the 6 to go along with my top pick, the 10. But both the 1 and the 6 are closing types, so I would not endorse them in this case.
Instead, along with the 10, I would use the 8 for sure, and if you wanted to add a bomber as a possibility, I would consider using the 7 as well.
My adjusted Pick 4:
Race 10: 5
Race 11: 7, 8, 10
Race 12: 2, 3
Race 13: 5, 8
Came in to today thinking that I would jump on Early Voting at 6-1 if he got there. He did, but I didn't think Epicenter would 8-5. I thought he'd be 4-5.
Both are bettable prices, but if you are betting on one of them, I think Epicenter is the one to go with.
The greatest to ever do it.
Thanks for the tips momux and mtsucalico85. Hit the win, exacta and the tri
2-5-8 let’s go
Boxed the 2-5-8....thank you.
Big Win! I hit the $.10 boxed superfecta for $16.29. First win ever on the ponies. Lol
Already ready to get in on some more action. Had a lot of bad beats Sat but it was a great time.
stopped betting, so nyra just mailing me a check for $7,500. nice little check that i forgot about
Down to a field of 8 for the Belmont; haven't seen a good DRF come out yet, but I'll post if I stumble across it. I haven't done much research yet, but looks like the #1 and the #6 are the favorites in this one.
You know a good place to look up which of these horses may like the extra distance? Did some quick googling and saw nest has a solid distance pedigree
drf formulator will have info on sire, dam and all siblings.
how many of the horses are tapits? he crushes the belmont.
i haven't watched a horse race since january so i don't know anything
we the people, creative minister and barber road I believe
well, that's probably where i would start.
did any of them do well at churchill where there is a similar long stretch like belmont?
Barber Road was 17th going into the stretch and finished 6th. I really like him at that price.
there you go
I'm the first to admit I don't really know much about horse racing, but this is an axiom that has worked reasonably well for me. Identify the trainer who has the best success rate at the track and find one of his/her horses who are undervalued.
I am hoping that brisnet will release their version of the DRF later this week. (this is what they had for the preakness: http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Preakness22.pdf)
You can use the Pace ratings as well as the distance in prior races to help hone in on that.
when i did well i would watch a bunch of replays for hidden bad trips that people didn't catch up on.
and had to stop betting beause i would take the money i won from putting in that time/research and bet on a race at midnight in australia where i didn't even know what type of race it was. yipee
It's probably worth clarifying that while these are the three that have Tapit in their pedigree, none of them are sired by him. We the People (Constitution) and Barber Road (Race Day) are sired by sons of Tapit, while Tapit is the damsire for Creative Minister (Creative Cause is his sire).
All of the horses that have raced at Churchill put in at least solid efforts. Rich Strike, Mo Donegal, and Barber Road all either set or matched their career top Beyer in the Kentucky Derby, Creative Minister won on the Derby undercard in a solid allowance race, and Nest was a credible 2nd in the Oaks.
what have the other horses in that allowance race done? any of them late starters who didn't race at 2 and then won in a next out allowance?
i just looked. that was a pretty soft n1x tbh
Most haven't returned to race yet from that allowance field. The only horses that finished in the top 6 that have returned to race are Creative Minister (who improved when finishing 3rd in the Preakness) was the runner-up Cover Me Up (he was a non-factor in the Lone Star Derby).
Given how he ran in the Preakness, I'd put more weight on that for Creative Minister than I would on Cover Me Up's poor performance coming out of the race.
Yeah I guess I was speaking more in terms of his performance than the field. It came up strong from a speed figure perspective (96 Beyer, and I don't remember what Timeform US had for him but I'm pretty sure it correlated to an even faster performance on their scale than it showed on the Beyer scale)
Never mind, just looked it up and Timeform gave him a 108 for his allowance race - the equivalent of an 88 Beyer or so.
Again not knowing anything, but I feel like the extra distance in the Belmont makes it a pretty tough race to handicap. Anybody have some generic signals they use to determine how well a horse will do when it steps up to a distance they haven't run before?