Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. Gallant Knight

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    Watch replays and pay attention to the gallop outs

    if you’re just looking at the form and not watching replays you pretty much have no chance unless you have some computer algorithm

    if you’re thinking about a race on Tuesday that’s not being run until Saturday, watch replays

    you can definitely eliminate horses that have almost no shot based on their form and not have to watch

    thats how I became a winning horse player on virtually every big race day as well as at my local track because I watched replays and kept notes

    I became a losing horse player by having to have constant action and betting on random races where I didn’t know shit

    anyway that’s my two cents and it worked for me (kind of)
     
  2. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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    dumb question, but what is meant by a 'gallop out'? is that just the way the horse breaks out of the gate?
     
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  3. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    What the horse does after passing the finishing line.
     
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  4. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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    cheers, that makes a lot of sense
     
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  5. Gallant Knight

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    horses that don't get out of the gate well or have troubled trips and then gallop out past everyone were a big +++ for me. generally added all of those horses to my virtual stable and then bet them next out if the race made sense.

    rtn.tv is a great resource. it has replays of every race as well as live simulcasts for like $10 a month. i used it extensively.
     
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  6. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    The other thing I would mention for a race like the Belmont is to not overrate horses that show a strong finishing kick. The easy thought is to see a horse like Rich Strike, Mo Donegal, etc. finishing strong at 1 1/4 miles in the Derby and think that automatically means that the kick will carry over to 1 1/2 mile races. But since the pace rarely is near as quick in the Belmont as what you would see in a race like the Derby (especially this year's Derby), the running style that historically has had success are the horses that churn out consistent 24 seconds per quarter mile or so throughout the race.

    The prime example for me of a horse like this is Commissioner back in the 2014 Belmont, when he finished 2nd at a big price. He didn't have anywhere near the talent of horses like Tonalist (who won), California Chrome, or Wicked Strong (who finished together in a dead heat for 4th). But he set the pace and essentially ran those steady 24-25 seconds every 2 furlongs. He never sped up but he never really slowed down either, and horses coming from further back had trouble out-finishing him outside of Tonalist.
     
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  7. Gallant Knight

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    the derby is such a weird race that it should pretty much be thrown out altogether for future handicapping purposes
     
  8. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I don't disagree, I was just using that because it was an easy example to translate to the Belmont and the amount of horses that come out of the Derby to run in the Belmont. It's a little different situation since he also ran in the Preakness, but Orb was thought of a horse that would relish the Belmont coming out of his Derby win. But instead it was two horses (Palace Malice and Oxbow) that were forwardly placed that had the clear advantage over him.

    The only real true closer that won the Belmont in the past decade or so was Creator. Everyone else had at least some forward positioning by the mile marker. Even a horse like Sir Winston, who didn't have a ton of early foot, was within a length of the leader that year in the Belmont a mile into the race.

    Sometimes, when a horse finishes strongly in a route race, it could mean that they will excel going longer. But it is also often the case that those strong kicks will be more effective cutting back, and the kick will be dulled as they go farther out. I think this is the case with a horse like Secret Oath this year. Yeah, she won the Oaks with a visually impressive move, but I think she'll end up being best as a miler rather than at the classic distances. Frosted is another example of this. He kept running in 9-10 furlong races, and his talent allowed him to be competitive, but it was at a mile where he was truly brilliant (though he wasn't necessarily a true deep closer, he did have some positional speed).
     
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  9. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    How many races back do you usually go when watching replays?
     
  10. Gallant Knight

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    generally two unless there is a reason to watch more.
     
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  11. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Pete Gelding
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    we the people is going to be so loose
     
  12. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Pete Gelding
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    It’s an absolutely horrible betting card. Will have to play a $50 base p5 to make anything.
     
  13. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    A few races will be fun from a sporting perspective, but the number of 5-6 horse fields is disappointing. Belmont Stakes day is typically my 2nd favorite betting day of the year behind Breeders Cup Saturday, but this is a big step down from their typical Belmont Stakes day.

    No race better typifies this card than the Met Mile. It's fantastic to get Flightline and Speaker's Corner in a race together, but they scared everyone else away to the point where there is very little to work with from a betting perspective.
     
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  14. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Pete Gelding
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    There are 2 g1’s for older fillies and mares on the turf.

    there are 12 entrants total.

    7 of them are owned by Peter brant.
     
  15. Hurley 864

    Hurley 864 Buy the ticket, take the ride
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    Like Gallant Knight, I sunk an astronomical amount of time & money handicapping this sport since the start of Covid. After some success & many more disgusting beats, I’ve come to realize horse racing isnt worth my time and I can finally move on with life & find other hobbies. This game is tough enough to beat with the high takeout. The CRWs, medication violations, super trainers/owners and declining field sizes/population make it almost impossible to stay above water as a handicapper. This Belmont card is just another example of the racing industry punishing their most important customer, the bettor.
     
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  16. Gallant Knight

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    Yeah racing offices and people inside the sport actively detest bettors
     
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  17. Baby Boy

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    What we feelin today gents
     
  18. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm going with Creative Minister in the Belmont. I don't think it will be a fast pace, and I do expect We the People to be the pace setter, but I don't think he's so fast where he is as loose as people think he's going to be. I also trust the past two races Creative Minister has run more than I do We the People's Peter Pan. The wet track and slow pace in that race makes that race look more impressive on paper than it actually was. Mo Donegal and We the People are the other main win contenders, but I think Creative Minister is just as likely to win as either one of them and he'll be the better price.

    I'm not planning on going the exotics route for this race (at least not as of now), but if you want to use a price horse that I think is interesting, Barber Road is worth a look. I think he can be more forwardly placed than he has shown in his past couple races, and if he does that, he has the grinding type of style that can play well in this race.
     
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  19. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'll be playing along in this thread for the remainder of the card throughout the day.

    For Race 2, I'm taking a shot with the 3, Set Sail. I like the cut back to a mile for him, and I'm willing to throw out his Peter Pan based on the longer distance and the wet track.

    The 1A just might be the best horse in the race off of his maiden debut, so I'll have a 1-3 exacta saver to go along with the win bet on the 3.
     
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  20. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I probably won't be betting the Acorn (Race 3) as a single race entity. I like Echo Zulu over Matareya, but I have no desire to take Echo Zulu at 2-5, and even that cold exacta is going to be something like 6-5 by the time the race goes off.

    I will do a small pick 4 starting this race, singling Echo Zulu this race and singling Regal Glory in the next race (I do think Regal Glory will be 2nd choice in her race). I will be trying to beat the favored Lone Rock in the 5th race. Hoping to get either the 2 or the 5 in, but will have coverage with the 3 and 7 as well.

    Race 3: 5
    Race 4: 2
    Race 3: 2, 3, 5, 7
     
    #4120 mtsucalico85, Jun 11, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2022
  21. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    For the Just a Game, it's possible that Speak of the Devil is the best turf miler among fillies in the country. And she has a wicked, eye catching kick coming down the stretch. That said, Regal Glory is even more accomplished than Speak of the Devil and has a narrow edge in speed figures. I don't think Regal Glory should be nearly twice the price of Speak of the Devil.

    I think the odds will come together a little, but even if she falls to 7-5 or 3-2, I think it's worth taking a shot with Regal Glory.
     
  22. Baby Boy

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    So maybe bets on Prime Minister and Barber Road to win and what sort of exotic route route would you take?
     
  23. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Given that speed has been doing very well so far at Belmont, I'm going to take a shot with First Constitution (5) in the Brooklyn. The first three dirt races have all essentially been gate-to-wire (and included two price horses), and he should be the controlling speed in the race. We'll see if he can get the mile and a half, but he did win last time out here at 1 3/8 miles.
     
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  24. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    A Creative Minister win bet is the only thing I have locked in to as of this point (unless he takes more money than I think I will).

    If I do play for a trifecta, I would key Creative Minister and Barber Road in 2 of the 3 spots with some logical horses like We the People and Mo Donegal in the other spot.

    It would look like this (For a $1 base bet, it would cost $12):

    1st: 5, 8
    2nd, 5, 8
    3rd: 1, 6

    1st: 5, 8
    2nd: 1, 6
    3rd: 5, 8

    1st: 1, 6
    2nd: 5, 8
    3rd: 5, 8

    That said, I am more likely to just go with the win bet and not do the above trifecta.
     
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  25. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm not looking to beat Jack Christopher (1) in the Woody Stephens, but not interested in betting him at 2-5 either. Morello (4) seems like the standout for 2nd - his Wood Memorial was over at the break, so you can draw a line through that one, and I think shorter is better for him anyway. His Gotham is just better than any other effort by a horse not named Jack Christopher in this field.

    I will connect those two in an exacta - Jack Christopher over Morello. I also have a little interest in Chasing Time (5) underneath, so will add a trifecta with Jack Christopher on top with Morello/Chasing Time in the 2nd and 3rd spots.
     
  26. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Will take a shot with Clairiere (4) in the Ogden Phipps. A little concerned about the pace, but I think she's stepped up from where she was last year when she kept losing to Malathaat, and she wasn't far off from Letruska in the Apple Blossom. She should be the 3rd choice, but she's 9/2 while the others are much shorter. That's more than a fair price.
     
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  27. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    The Jaipur is the best opportunity on the card to find a price. Arrest Me Red can certainly win as the favorite, but I don't think he's head and shoulders above the field. Gear Jockey (12) is a horse that likes to find difficult trips, and he found one last time when finishing 4th to Arrest Me Red in the Turf Sprint on the Derby undercard. He was forced to steady during the race, but made a nice belated re-rally to finish 4th. It can be a lot to ask for him to get a good trip, but if he does, he's as talented as anyone in the field. In the 6-1 to 8-1 range, I'll give him the opportunity. Also think the 13, Gregorian Chant, is competitive at around 10-1. Arrest Me Red (4) and Casa Creed (5) are logical, and worth using in exotics with the 12 and 13.
     
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  28. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm excited to watch Flightline, but this is not a great betting race. Speaker's Corner isn't far off from him, and they tower over the field (which is an accomplishment since Aloha West is a Breeders Cup winner). A cold exacta of Flightline over Speaker's Corner is paying out something close to 5-2, and that seems reasonable. If you think Speaker's Corner can beat him, the exacta in reverse is close to 6-1. If they both show up, I don't think the other horses can touch them.
     
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  29. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    In the Manhattan, I will bet Highland Chief (8) to win. He upset Gufo and Yibir last time out in the Man 'o War Stakes at 19-1, and I think the tepid betting support he is getting so far is tied to the public wanting to prove it wasn't a fluke. But I think there are reasons to think it is legitimate. He ran some legitimately strong races in Europe back in 2020, but only ran once in 2021 and had no chance in his debut race in the US first time out this year with a poor break and trip. He did get a great ride and trip last time out on a softer pace, and this should be a bit quicker which could help a horse like Gufo. But Gufo is 2-1 while Highland Chief is 8-1, and Highland Chief has the best last race in the field based on his 105 Beyer speed figure, at least from a speed figure perspective.
     
  30. b7

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    I had the 7 in my exacta with 10 and 2. That was a nice race by him
     
  31. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    It certainly helped the 7 when the 10 didn't break.
     
  32. b7

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    Yes it did. And he looked like he was fighting Luis the whole way
     
  33. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm sticking with Creative Minister in the Belmont. I will key him in some exactas, as well, with We the People, Mo Donegal, and Barber Road.
     
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  34. b7

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    I am going 2 - 5 - 6 and rooting for rich strike.
     
  35. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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    mtsucalico85 you have anything going on Saratoga today?

    Epicenter was an easy pick in the Jim Dandy but his odds just kept shortening up
     
  36. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I was away all afternoon so I didn't play anything today. For the stakes races, I would have just done a cold Jackie's Warrior-Early Voting double, so it was for the best I didn't get to play it.

    I'm making my first trip to Saratoga two weeks from today, so that should be a fun experience.
     
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  37. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Flightline is a monster.

     
  38. CuckFinn

    CuckFinn If you hold a cat by it’s tail...
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    Beast.
     
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  39. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Breeders Cup is this weekend and all the fields were drawn today.

    Not sure how much I'll actually handicap for Saturday because I will be away all day and won't be able to follow the races live to bet, but I'll try to get some opinions out before the weekend.
     
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  40. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    My thoughts for today's Breeders Cup races. Spoilering my race-by-race thoughts and picks just because of length:

    Race 6: Juvenile Turf Sprint: This seems like a wide open race, and I think it’s a stronger European contingent than the Turf Sprint usually gets. The horse I landed on for my top pick is one of those, Dramatised (4). She faced the two morning line favorites (Love Reigns (2) and The Platinum Queen (12)) two starts back in the Queen Mary at Ascot and beat those two comfortably at 5 furlongs. She faded to 5th in her most recent start going 6 furlongs, but I think the cut back will help her. I also think there should be a legitimate pace being set, which should benefit her. If she is anywhere near her morning line of 15-1, she is worth a win bet, but even if she goes in the 8-1 or 10-1 range, I think that is value. But for multi-race wagers, this is a spread race. I’d use the two morning line favorites defensively, with a preference to Love Reigns, but I’d also use Mischief Magic (5) and Persian Force (6) among the Europeans and American Apple (8) and Tyler’s Tribe (10) among the Americans. Persian Force is the horse I like the most after Dramatised, but Tyler’s Tribe may be the most fascinating horse of any horse running today. There is a world where he is just the most talented horse in this race, but he’s only run on dirt against much lesser competition in Iowa, and on top of that he has the most early speed in a race that should be quick early. He seems like a win or off the board type. He’s not in my top 4, ultimately, but from a win bet perspective, there could be value there.

    1. Dramatised (4) 15-1
    2. Persian Force (6) 15-1
    3. Love Reigns (2) 4-1

    Race 7: Juvenile Fillies: This is a weak group overall where I don’t want much to do with the established horses. Chocolate Gelato (10) is the most likely winner, but I wasn’t thrilled with her Frizette win, which was a regression from her maiden breaker. The question is was it the wet track that caused her to regress, or was it the increase in distance? I lean toward the latter, but even that may still be good enough to win the race. The horse I like is Atomically (8), and this is probably my strongest opinion on the day. It’s a step up in class for her, for sure, as the Florida based horses are not strong at this time of year, but she easily won her last stakes race down there with speed figures right on par with the best in this field, and she has been transferred to Pletcher’s barn since then. While all 2YO’s have a right to improve, I think the path is clearest for her. I’ll plan on making a win bet on her (assuming she doesn’t get bet down to 5-1 or anything like that), plus most of my multi-race bets will be centered around her.

    1. Atomically (8) 12-1
    2. Chocolate Gelato (10) 7-2
    3. You’re My Girl (2) 10-1

    Race 8: Juvenile Fillies Turf: Another spread race for me that I don’t have a strong feel. I do think that of the two longer turf races, this is the more balanced one between Euros and Americans, and will be using a couple from each. From America, I think Xigera (13) and Be Your Best (6) have big chances (I like Xigera a bit more, her turf debut was impressive and she didn’t need to love the dirt last time out), while Spirit Gal (7), Meditate (10), and Midnight Mile (12) make sense from Europe. I’ll take a shot with the best price of the group in Spirit Gal, who beat a nice Aidan O’Brien colt named Cairo on the synthetic last time in which Cairo came back to win a G3 stakes on turf, and while her best race in on synthetic, I think that is a function of her just getting better with each start because she has won on the turf as well.

    1. Spirit Gal (7) 20-1
    2. Xigera (13) 8-1
    3. Be Your Best (6) 8-1

    Race 9: Juvenile: Won’t spend much time here – Cave Rock (3) is the most likely winner on the day and will be a single for me. If you are looking to bet the race from a single race standpoint, I think the path would be to find a horse you like to finish second and connect them in a cold exacta. My preference for that would be Blazing Sevens (6). But this seems like a chalky race overall.

    1. Cave Rock (3) 4-5
    2. Blazing Sevens (6) 6-1
    3. Forte (4) 4-1

    Race 10: Juvenile Turf: Unlike the fillies, I think the Euros have a clear edge over the Americans for the colt race as I don’t think this is a strong American contingent. There are only two European horses, and they will be my 1-2 picks in Silver Knott (4) and Victoria Road (1). Charlie Appleby has been a winning machine with everything he sends over to the US or Canada, and I definitely prefer his horse (Silver Knott) among the two. If I had to use an American colt, it would be I’m Very Busy (8) as I loved his debut race at Saratoga. I just have a hard time with him not winning in the Pilgrim, even if he may not have loved the softer ground.

    1. Silver Knott (4) 3-1
    2. Victoria Road (1) 8-1
    3. I’m Very Busy (8) 9-2

    My Multi Race plays:

    I will be playing the double between Races 6 and 7, trying to get a horse from the Turf Sprint connected with Atomically. For a $1 base bet, the total cost will be $7.

    Race 6: 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12
    Race 7: 8

    I will also be playing the Pick 4, starting with Race 7, hoping to get Atomically in the 7th (but covering myself with Chocolate Gelato) and/or one of the prices in the 8th. For a $1 base bet, the total cost will be $20.

    Race 7: 8, 10
    Race 8: 6, 7, 10, 12, 13
    Race 9: 3
    Race 10: 1, 4
     
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  41. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I really haven't dug into tomorrow since I won't be able to play the card, but for the Classic: I'm not trying to beat Flightline (4), but I'm not dying to take him at something like 1-2. Finding someone to connect with him underneath is the way to go. I'm against Life is Good (2), as I don't trust him at the distance unless he gets a softer pace, and with Flightline breathing down his neck, I don't see that happening. Epicenter (6) and Taiba (1) are the next logical choices, and I would use them underneath. Problem is that I think that is what everyone else is trying to do, so I don't know if a cold Flightline-Epicenter or Flightline-Taiba exacta will pay all that much. My goal would be to try and get Hot Rod Charlie (5) into the trifecta, as he has run as fast as the non-Flightline horses in the past, should like going the full 10 furlongs, and is a horse that always shows up. I will key him in a tri with Flightline in 1st and Epicenter/Taiba in the other spot.

    1. Flightline (4) 3-5
    2. Epicenter (6) 5-1
    3. Hot Rod Charlie (5) 15-1

    Classic bets-

    1st Trifecta:
    1st: 4
    2nd: 5
    3rd: 1, 6

    2nd Trifecta:
    1st: 4
    2nd: 1, 6
    3rd: 5

    When pairing the two trifectas above, a $1 base bet would end up costing $4.
     
  42. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I like the price I'll be getting on Dramatised (4), looking like she'll be going off at around 12-1. Will bet her to win and use her in some exactas with the others I'm using in the double.
     
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  43. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Still like Atomically (8) to win the Juvenile Fillies. I knew I wouldn't get her 12-1 morning line, but I'm still good with taking a shot on her at 6-1 or 7-1.

    I don't totally get why Chop Chop is as clear of a favorite as she is. Among the favorites, sure, but she shouldn't be 2-1 when Chocolate Gelato is 4-1.
     
  44. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamMinnesota Twins

    Wide open race, but I'm going to mess around with Spirit Gal (7) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Small win bet at a big price, but more trying to mix her into the trifecta with some combination of the 6/10/12/13.
     
  45. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
    Atlanta BravesCarolina PanthersUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpoolCharlotte FC

    Anybody got any good ideas for the main events?
     
  46. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
    Donor
    North Carolina TarheelsCarolina PanthersChelseaFormula 1

    Follow mtsucalico85 above. Guy is good.
     
  47. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
    Atlanta BravesCarolina PanthersUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpoolCharlotte FC

    Oh I do. I read his stuff yesterday but think he only capped the Classic. I am cheering for a legendary Flightline performance but not betting him. Was thinking more earlier races.

    Flightline appears a little antsy.
     
  48. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
    Atlanta BravesCarolina PanthersUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpoolCharlotte FC

    Good for Flightline and connections. Wish he had made his move a little earlier and gone for the legendary, but a very practical race and still won easily and throughly.
     
  49. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Ohio State BuckeyesCincinnati RedsPittsburgh SteelersPittsburgh PenguinsCleveland Cavaliers

    Agree, wish he would of been a little more dominate. Really hated Calmus call, it was so forced.
    Good for flightline, hope epicenter is ok.
     
  50. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
    Donor
    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    Why did flightline not race in the triple crown races as a 3yo?