Official Horse Racing Thread

I won't finalize what my betting plan will be until either Thursday or Friday, but I have four horses that I am considering to some degree as my top pick, and those two (Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire) are two of them. Derma Sotogake and Two Phil's are the other two.

I'm alive to a couple exactas in the Derby futures market centered around Tapit Trice that I made back in January - one with Forte and the other with Rocket Can. The ones with Forte (obviously the more likely to actually hit) would pay $680 or $508, depending on the order of finish. But the fun one is with Rocket Can, where if that exacta hits, it will pay out either $7600 or $6650. Tapit Trice winning in both cases would lead to the higher payout. So regardless of what I actually bet on Derby day, my best case outcome will be a Tapit Trice-Rocket Can 1-2 finish.

 

Will look at the Derby card tomorrow evening. Won't be able to play the Oaks undercard, so I just looked at the Oaks itself.

This is a very weak group by Oaks standards. Wet Paint (7) will and should be favored based on her form at Oaklawn Park. But I don't think she's so far ahead of the field where I want to take 2-1 on a horse that doesn't hold a significant speed figure edge on the field and will be coming from the rear of the pack in a 14-horse field. If you are playing the Oaks Pick 4 or exotics, she is a must use on top, but she won't be my top pick. If it isn't Wet Paint, I really only see two horses as realistic upsetters. Botanical (6) is one of them, as she is the fastest horse in the field from a speed figure standpoint. But that was on synthetic, and she has yet to run on the dirt. Pedigree does show that dirt shouldn't be an issue, and she seems to be handling the Churchill dirt just fine in the morning, but in a race of this level, I'd want more than 4-1 on a horse making her first attempt at the surface. She can win, but I'll try to beat her.

That leaves me with Southlawn (4), who will be my top pick. I think the Louisiana races were the strongest overall of the group, and she easily won the Fair Ground Oaks. She's been a new horse at 3, and apparently she had a breathing problem that was corrected between her 2YO and 3YO seasons that would give further guidance to the sharp improvement. I don't think she'll be her 8-1 morning line. But even if she is something like 9-2, I think she'll be playable on the win end, and that will be my plan.

I won't be dipping into the exotics this time around, but if you want to go that route, I do think The Alys Look (2) and Pretty Mischievous (14) are useful underneath, and I'd lean towards The Alys Look of the two. Have a hard time seeing them completely turn the tables on Southlawn, but as I stated, I thought the Louisiana path to the Oaks was the strongest and they both had good efforts along that path. The Alys Look was well beaten but had a worse trip compared to Southlawn and Pretty Mischieveous last time out, but if she returns to the form she showed in her prior start, she has a fighting chance at a price.

Kentucky Oaks selections:
1. Southlawn (4) 8-1
2. Wet Paint (7) 5-2
3. The Alys Look (2) 15-1
4. Botanical (6) 4-1

My Oaks bets:
- Win bet on Southlawn at anything better than 9-2
- Oaks/Derby Double: 4-3/5/14/17 (Southlawn singled in the Oaks, using Two Phil's, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, and Derma Sotogake in the Derby)

 

This has been one of the wildest days in the leadup to the Derby that I've ever seen. Three scratches today - Practical Move spiked a temperature, Lord Miles because of Saffie Joseph, and Continuar due to his connections not liking his fitness level. Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero, and King Russell get into the field.

I've seen rumors that this may not be the last scratch we see before Derby day, either.

 

Skinner is now out of the Derby after spiking a temperature.

 

Some thoughts on the Derby day card. Will start at Race 8, as I won't be able to start watching/betting the card until Race 7, and that is a turf sprint which I am awful with and don't have any strong takes on so I won't be playing. But I am curious to see what we get out of Extra Anejo in the first race off of his long layoff. His maiden breaker last October was electric, and it was enough to actually make him the favorite in the very first Derby futures pool last November. Spoilered for length

Spoiler

Race 8 (Pat Day Mile): This may be the most fascinating race on the card to me. An angle I love historically is taking a horse that has been running in Derby prep races but ultimately will be better going shorter. There are a couple horses that fit that bill in this spot, but the two that interest me the most are Frosted Departure (6) and Fort Bragg (7). Frosted Departure will be the much better price, so he'll be my top pick and a win bet at anything near his 20-1 morning line. But this may be a rare instance where I may make two win bets, as I am intrigued by a horse who will be a massive price in Freezing Point (14). I actually really liked his 3rd place finish last time out behind a pair of horses (Corona Bolt, Hejazi) that may very well be favored had they been in this spot, and he isn't that far behind on speed figures. At a morning line of 50-1, I'm intrigued.

Race 9 (American Turf): Definitely seems like there is more quality that usual for this race, but with that said, there are three standouts to me in Far Bridge (2), Talk of a Nation (4), and Carl Spackler (11). Even though he is only coming off of a maiden win and I think he'll likely be favored, I like Carl Spackler the most. He battled hard with Far Bridge in his debut race in a very fast race, and he took another step forward when actually breaking his maiden last time out. He just looks like the next top Chad Brown turf horse to me.

Race 10 (Churchill Downs): Not overthinking this one, I like Cody's Wish (7), and he'll be a single in multi-race wagers.

Race 11 (Turf Classic): This is a pretty well-balanced race, but I will land on Spooky Channel (9). He was off for over a year during 21-22, but came back late last year and has been better than ever, including a nice win last time out in the Muniz Memorial. He can be versatile but he's better when he can sit off a quicker pace, and with the full field, we should get an honest pace. The other horse that I think is a major contender is Up to the Mark (5), who is more of the up-and-comer in this field. He may have the most upside moving forward in this field, but he is unproven at 9 furlongs, and speed figure wise he fits with these but doesn't hold any advantage, and I could see him taking money and being the favorite. So Spooky Channel for me, but I'll use both in multi-race wagers.

Race 12 (Kentucky Derby): I respect Forte (15), but I'm not sure he's moved forward at all from 2 to 3, and I don't know if he's going to be best off stretching out in distance. While I think he's a deserving favorite, I will be trying to beat him completely on top. I will use him underneath in exotics, though. There are four horses that I will consider on the win end, and those are Two Phil's (3), Tapit Trice (5), Angel of Empire (14), and Derma Sotogake (17). For my top pick, I'll land on the horse I have the least amount of questions on, and that is Angel of Empire. I just love the way he has progressed this year to date, with steady improvement from each race to the next. I think the Risen Star, while not the fastest race, is going to ultimately be a bit of a key race for the Derby. Angel of Empire won it, Two Phil's got 3rd, and both took big strides next time out.

The horse who split them in that spot, Sun Thunder (13), is my favorite longshot in the field. He hasn't shown the step forward that the other two have, but he was completely against the flow of the race in the Louisiana Derby, and while he wouldn't have threatened Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass, he had another difficult trip in that spot as well. He's the type of horse that historically fills out the trifecta or superfecta at a big price.

In addition to Sun Thunder and Forte, other horses I can use underneath in exotics are Hit Show (1), Rocket Can (16), and Mandarin Hero (22).

My Derby bets:

Win on Angel of Empire (14)
Tri Box: 3/5/13/14/17 (for $0.50 base bet, will cost $30)

Tri: 14, 1/3/5/13/15/17/18/22, 1/3/5/13/15/17/18/22 (for $0.50 base bet, will cost $28)
Tri: 3/5/17, 14, 1/3/5/13/17/18/22 (for $0.50 base bet, will cost $10.50)
Tri: 3/5/17, 1/3/5/13/17/18/22, 14 (for $0.50 base bet, will cost $10.50)

The Pick 5 I am planning to play (for $0.50 base bet, will cost $36):

Race 8: 6, 7, 14
Race 9: 2, 4, 11
Race 10: 7
Race 11: 5, 9
Race 12: 3, 5, 14, 17

 

Well this may have an impact on how I'll play the race. FWIW, this was the horse I was referring to on Thursday that had rumors going on about him, apparently he took a bad step while training on Thursday.

 

I'm going to eliminate the 5 horse tri box from my Derby bet. Don't think the upside is there if four of the five horses will be the top four choices. I'll keep the trifecta key bets on Angel of Empire (will be a little cheaper with no Forte).

In addition to the Angel of Empire key, I may do something similar with Sun Thunder. It will probably look something like this:

Tri: 3/5/14/17, 13, 1/3/5/14/17/18/22 (for $0.50 base bet, will cost $12)
Tri: 3/5/14/17, 1/3/5/14/17/18/22, 13 (for $0.50 base bet, will cost $12)
Tri: 13, 3/5/14/17, 1/3/5/14/17/18/22 (for $0.50 base bet, will cost $12) - I'm debating whether to do this last one, whether to do this as shown, do this but not include the 1/18/22, or not include it at all.

 

There's a big part of me that thinks they would have let Forte run if they didn't have the other deaths that occurred so closely at the track, knowing they had everyone looking at them with so much scrutiny.