I'll throw a few picks out there for a Pick 4. Take them for what their worth. This is based on my review of the PPs and Thorograph and NOT based on a review of race replays, which is MUCH more valuable. Races 6 & 8. These are the races where I will go deep and hope I survive. I'll try to beat the Euros in 6. Race 6: 4,6,11,13. Race 8: 2,3,4,5,13,14 Race 7. Too often I end up with pick 4s that have less ROI because I add in a horse to beat the chalk with the hope of catching a big price. Sometimes you have to know when you can't beat a horse. I've tried to make a case to beat Dortmund. Just don't see it. I thought Tamarkuz (8) was interesting, but with Powe's comment RE the track favoring speed, I think Dortmund has to be a single. So does everyone else. If you can beat him, you'll get paid. Race 9. This race should be awesome! I'm really just going to try enjoy it as a fan. Can Songbird stay undefeated against Stellar Wind and Beholder? That seems like a tall order, but you have to respect a horse that has never lost. How do you pick against Beholder who had a valiant effort against Chrome in the Pacific Classic? I question whether she has it in her after the last 3 seconds in tough races. My guess here would be Stellar Wind. But I'll play all 3 of them as well as Curlina Mia, whose thorograph seems to suggest she is up for a good race. 4,6,11,13 3 2,3,4,13,14 1,3,5,8 $40 ticket
I thought I was going to be devastated if Songbird lost that race but I just wasn't, she did everything right. I believe she's going to be returning next year and with another year of growth under her belt and the retirement of California Chrome, Songbird very well could be the top horse in the US next year.
She lost nothing in defeat. Initially thought she won the bob given NBC's camera angle. But got to feel good for Beholder and her connections, sending her out like that. I think there is a decent chance that Songbird may take on males at some point next year, which will be awesome, and she'll be a handful for them. I don't think it will happen for a few different reasons, but it would be fun to see her run in the Pegasus against Chrome.
Buddy wants to go to Santa Anita tomorrow. Apparently there's a big thing happening. If I go I hope someone in this thread will provide me with winners. Also he says the Husker game will definitely be on. Anyone been to Santa Anita that can confirm?
I have my picks for Saturday here. The first race I posted about, the Juvenile Fillies, is race 4 on the card. Never been to Santa Anita, so not sure what the TV situation is like there.
Every college football game will be on. You're essentially going to a casino. It's going to be absolutely packed there.
After watching it again, Beholder was better than the margin of victory would indicate over Songbird, and I don't think it's crazy to suggest Forever Unbridled ran the best race. Pace was nowhere near as lively as I thought it would be. That helped Songbird more than any other horse, and it hurt Forever Unbridled more than any other horse. And given that Santa Anita, in general, is friendly to speed to begin with, that Forever Unbridled was beaten just over a length in finishing third is an accomplishment. Turf course was very fast, but it looked like it was playing fairly. As for the dirt, I do think being forwardly placed helped (as it often does at Santa Anita), but it wasn't a death sentence in the slightest to be coming from the back unless you were a very deep closer. As long as you get into striking distance by the top of the stretch, like Tamurkuz did in the Dirt Mile, you'll have a fair shot.
I followed some of y'all picks. Really want to get into horses but don't know where to start....any resources?
Not that I'm nearly as good at this as the others in this thread, but I got into horse racing like 18 months ago or so... I'm not sure how serious you really are, but if you are serious I have ~15 books I can lend you and I have a number of resources online I can get to you. If this was ANY other day of the year I'd do it right now, but this is the biggest day of the year in horse racing so the earliest I can work on this is probably tomorrow. That said, if you want to begin immediately I'd first work on understanding how to read past performances (PP's), you can begin here: http://www1.drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html You still won't understand some things on that sheet such as the race class/type, but that comes later. www.helloracefans.com is a solid site for beginnings. One of the things that helped me the most in my handicapping was the realization that horse racing isn't a speed game, it's an energy game. That is, how does the horse use its energy and how much energy will they have at certain points in the race.... this is the reason why if 3 horses that NEED the lead to win lock up, they'll most likely tire each other out fighting for the lead allowing a horse from further behind to swoop in for the victory. It's a lot more complicated than just that, but if I had known that from day 1 it would have REALLY helped me. Like I said, if you are sincerely interested this thread is a great start as are the links I gave you and if you do want to learn I can continuously give you some good places to read about the game. Let any of us know. FWIW I ask a TON of questions ITT, especially early on. It might be a solid start.
My picks for today are a formatting mess and I don't have time to enter the names or make the data pretty, so here is just a copy of the horses I actually think are worth a shit in each race.... I apologize that this formatting will help absolutely nobody: R1: 10 9 4 6 R2: 4 8 5 2 R3: 12 9 8 13 R4: 7 4 3 5 8 12 11 R5: 1 8 7 5 11 R6: 5 7 R7: 1 2 9 6 12 R8: 2 5 6 9 10 R9: 4 10 12 6 9 8 R10: 2 9 10 8 R11: 8 5 9 13 R12: 4 10 1 2
Two good podcasts I would take a look at: -Night School: This one is the best for someone getting started into the game. I would take a look at all the potential topics, especially early the ones that feature a more general topic that can be used in many situations (ie Trip Handicapping, Speed Figures, Preparing for a Day at the Races, etc.), and see which ones would be on interest to you. I don't use this one quite as much as I used to, but it's probably the best one for learning the ins and outs of the game. -DRF Players Podcast: Once you get more into horse racing, this one is better for current events in terms of handicapping and then reviewing bigger races of the week. Gives you an insight of what some of the top handicappers look for.
Mts seems really knowable about the different races today. I have been handicapping horses all my life with limited success. Looks like I'm hanging g here today
One of my worst beats of all time.... Just lost a $995 trifecta because a 13-1 tracked down my 3rd place horse. I was thinking about NOT playing my third place horse in 2nd position and only the 3rd and playing the horse that nipped her in the 3rd position. Son of a bitch.
If you are betting with TVG opt in to their money back deal.... You get your money back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd up to $15.
Good. Now that the worst fucking race of the Friday and Saturday card (Stakes race or not) is completed we can actually play some ponies. Lets do this shit
Gonna be keying Lady Eli in 2nd and 3rd with Sea Calisi, Al's Gal and Sentiero Italia on top and some competitors in 3rd.
+167 Many nicely priced horses in the 7th I like. Could be a daily double race for me...gonna look for a single in the eighth Guidos DD limit is 15-1....not sure I can get under that
Playing a P3 starting in this leg: 9/12/14 w 5/10 w 4/6/7/8/10/12 Pretty much praying for a nice price in the 3rd leg