I absolutely loved Obviously... but from the 2 post I just couldn't do it. That was the most impressive run by a horse this weekend so far... winning from the 2 on the lead the entire trip? Wow
My god I had that race absolutely pegged... not that it was hard but it was obvious who the best 2 horses were
Motherfucking piece of shit. The 12 horse was the last horse I eliminated. I understand this has ran 3rd to Beholder and Stellar Wind but absolutely no line in the past 3 years was adequate enough to win this race. I tried to make this horse work in this race, I manipulated the numbers in favor of this horse just to get him to be a contender and I still couldn't come up with him. Motherfucking cock sucker
Had a win bet on Tepin so i'll get my money back. If I wouldn't have removed Finest City from my pick 4 as my last horse I'd be alive to California fucking Chrome right now for like $800
Went too wide. Tepin got stuck a bit on the rail in her last race so they were always going to go wide... they always try to go wide with her because she's so much more talented than anybody else. She went wide and a hole opened up on the inside which allowed for that to happen.... Tepin ran the best race, by far.
Ended up doing okay today, thanks to the Turf, F&M Turf, and Juvenile. Got my money back in the Classic because all my bets included Shaman Ghost (it's what I get for making all my bets last night since I was going to be at the Gopher game).
We can add Stellar Wind and Tepin to the list of horses returning in 2017. Got to think we'll have multiple Stellar Wind/Songbird matchups next year, at the very least.
Not This Time has been retired due to a soft-tissue injury in one of his forelegs. Damn it. I was probably more excited about him than any 2YO colt since Shared Belief.
Getting close to that time of year where this thread will become more active. Some news from today: Coolmore is selling Juddmonte its spot for the Pegasus World Cup, which allow Arrogate to run. Right now, we have four horses that are likely to run: California Chrome, Arrogate, Shaman Ghost, and Eragon (Grade 1 winner in Argentina, will be a big longshot). Some other possibles include Keen Ice, Stanford, Midnight Storm, Connect, and Gun Runner, but those are all still up in the air.
Some BIG time maidens making their first and second starts of their careers in the 3rd at SA on Monday. Dabster looks to be the best of the Baffert bunch. Dabster is a $1,000,000 Curlin. Bronze Age is another Baffert debuter, a $600,000 Mineshaft. The other Baffert runner in he field is First Degree Burn who ran 3rd last out but improved 8 positions from the first call to finish in that race. 50 days since he last ran with consistently solid workouts every 6-7 days. First Degree Burn is a $170,000 Pioneer of the Nile. ALSO in this race is Seau, $375,000 Distorted Humor. Joel Rosario is in town for the mount. Trained by Hollendorfer. Also trained by Hollendorfer is Eleutheros who finished 2nd in his first race out and then faltered in his second race. So Conflated ran by far the best race of the bunch in his only appearance. So Conflated is a $70,000 Eskendereya. Without getting into as much detail, the 5th at Del Mar is a fillie MSW that probably has Hollendorfer's two best 2 year old fillies in Princess Julia (400k Distorted Humor) and Tizcool (150k Tiznow). Princess Julia is his Kentucky Oaks runner this year by most accounts... Baffert has a $575,000 Giants Causeway named Beautiful Princess. So yeah... some major juvenile races at Santa Anita on Monday.
I continually find myself drawn to this thread even though I only understand maybe half the stuff that is being talked about
It's a whole different world. Before I got into horse racing I thought it was just Triple Crown - Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont - but that's legitimately like 1/300th of this game. At the very least it's about the most entertaining way imaginable to pass weekends during the summer when there is nothing on TV other than baseball.
Plus I think Pavelski is fairly interesting, at least at a bit of a price. I like First Degree Burn to win. Dabster may turn out to be the best Baffert in this race, but First Degree Burn has an experience edge on him, and he ran against Beach Bum last time out. Beach Bum isn't Baffert's most accomplished (that would be Klimt or Mastery) 2YO, but he's the Baffert horse I like the most right now. The second place finisher who split Beach Bum and First Degree Burn (Royal Mo) came back to break his maiden next time out, which adds to the legitimacy of that race.
Going to the track to bet on some ponies here in a couple weeks. Feels good that the season is getting started again.
Kind of busy this week, but I'll try to get an initial top 20 Triple Crown prospects sometime next week. Barring something weird happening in the Sham, Classic Empire has to start out as number one, given that Not This Time is retired.
The 2016 Eclipse Awards finalists (in alphabetical order) are: Horse of the Year: Arrogate, California Chrome, Songbird Two-Year-Old Male: Classic Empire, Not This Time, Practical Joke Two-Year-Old Filly: Champagne Room, Lady Aurelia, New Money Honey Three-Year-Old Male: Arrogate, Exaggerator, Nyquist Three-Year-Old Filly: Cathryn Sophia, Queen's Trust, Songbird Older Dirt Male: California Chrome, Frosted, Lord Nelson Older Dirt Female: Beholder, Cavorting, Stellar Wind Male Sprinter: A.P. Indian, Drefong, Lord Nelson Female Sprinter: Finest City, Haveyougoneaway, Paulassilverlining Male Turf Horse: Flintshire, Highland Reel, Tourist Female Turf Horse: Lady Eli, Miss Temple City, Tepin Steeplechase Horse: Rawnaq, Scorpiancer, Top Striker Owner: Juddmonte Farms, Inc., Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey, Spendthrift Farm LLC Breeder: Clearsky Farms, Darley, WinStar Farm, LLC Trainer: Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, Mark Casse Jockey: Javier Castellano, Jose Ortiz, Mike Smith Apprentice Jockey: Kevin Gomez, Lane Luzzi, Luis Ocasio
Poweshow winners: Horse of the Year: California Chrome Two-Year Old Male: Classic Empire Two-Year Old Filly: Champagne Room Three-Year Old Male: Arrogate Three-Year Old Filly: Songbird Older Male Dirt: California Chrome Older Female Dirt: Beholder Male Sprinter: Lord Nelson Female Sprinter: Paulassilverling Male Turf: Flitshire Female Turf: Tepin Steeplechase: ??? Owner: ??? Breeder: ??? Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Jose Ortiz Apprentice Jockey: ???
I agree with almost all of your picks. The only one I for sure would be different on is jockey, where I'd go Castellano. Ortiz had a great year, and he did have the most wins, but he also spent the winter in New York, when the jockey colony has less depth compared to Gulfstream/Santa Anita. So his wins may be inflated a tad bit. But any of those three could win it, and I wouldn't have a problem with it. I'd think long and hard about two-year old filly. I'd be tempted to pick Shane's Girlfriend because I don't think any other filly did anything to stand out, and I thought her Delta Princess was far and away the best race by a filly this year. But it is hard to pick a horse who has only one a Grade 3 over Champagne Rome, who has the BC Juvenile Fillies plus a Grade 2 to her name. So as badly as I'd like to pick Shane's Girlfriend, Champagne Room is probably the answer there.
My jockey selection didn't take into account wins or stakes wins or anything like that. I'm pretty much basing my jockey selection off of how absolutely unconscious Jose Ortiz was during the 2nd half of the Saratoga meet. The kid was winning with favorites, with long shots, he was winning everything. If he was on a need to lead horse it was a must bet. I know I've only been in this game for 2 years, but in those 2 years Jose Ortiz had the most incredible jockey run that I've seen so far.
Jeremy Plonk's 2017 Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual was released today. This (and his weekly updates) is the best source of information for those following the run up to the Triple Crown races. http://www.horseplayernow.com/countdown-to-the-crown.html
Sham Stakes (Saturday Race 7, Santa Anita, 1 mile, 10 points): I’m going to try and beat Gormley (5), who is the most accomplished horse in the field off of his win in the FrontRunner and the morning line favorite. I thought he got a fortunate setup that day when able to set a comfortable pace. He won’t get that here, as Big Hit (6) and Blabimir (7) should ensure the pace at least won’t be considered slow. To me, it comes down to Big Hit or American Anthem (1), and I prefer American Anthem of the two because I feel he has the most upside in the field off of one race, and I do think Blabimir could weaken Big Hit a bit for American Anthem (who should be mid-pack) to catch him in the stretch. Don’t see him winning, but I could see Colonel Samsen (4) outrun his odds and challenge for the bottom of the exotics. All depends on how he takes to the dirt. Sham Selections: 1. American Anthem (1) 9-5 2. Big Hit (6) 4-1 3. Gormley (5) 8-5
About 15 minutes to post. With the wet track, think you have to consider the 2 horse, Term of Art. He's proven he can win on a wet track, while the others really haven't even seen a wet track. Big Hit has some wet track pedigree, as well. Don't think I could bet American Anthem at the price (7-5), especially the wet track. Still think he's the best horse and likeliest winner in the race, though. But Big Hit or Term of Art are probably better win bets, given their value (I still prefer Big Hit over Term of Art)
Unique Bella was hailed as "the next" and it's just been confirmed. Hollendorfer/Smith connection and Unique Bella just galloped to an 8 length victory. Mike Smith was just interviewed and said the comparisons to her.... to SONGBIRD are legitimate. And so it begins............................................
Wasn't like it was a soft field, either. It may have been only a 5 horse field, but it included Shane's Girlfriend, who I'm obviously high on. She was moving so easily as she was passing the leading group going into the far turn.