I'm running with my guy Classic Empire most likely. 3rd off the layoff for the most talented horse... I'll take if
Going to be in Vegas this weekend and want to fuck around with some horse racing, probably only gonna do main event. Anyone have a good link that easily explains this shit? I know nothing about it.
Here's a beginner's guide to horse racing. As for the Preakness, I like reading Jeremy Plonk's Countdown to the Crown each week (here is his Preakness breakdown), though I don't necessarily agree with his thoughts for the Preakness. I also think the Daily Racing Form does good work. It isn't necessarily reading, but here is a video breakdown of the race with three of their main handicappers. Being able to listen to people like these can be helpful in learning what people look for when handicapping a race. And I'll have my writeup on here sometime tomorrow.
Preakness breakdown, in post position order: 1. Multiplier (Rosario, 30-1): He ran well in the Illinois Derby, but this is a big step up in class. He’ll put in his run, but just think he’s a cut below the top horses. Maybe he could get 4th at a big price if you are playing supers. I personally won’t be using him. 2. Cloud Computing (Castellano, 12-1): He’s the most interesting new shooter, and one that I have always liked. He has not had ideal setups in either of his last two races- being forwardly placed in the fast-paced Gotham, then breaking a step slow and falling behind the two speed horses in the Wood on a day where speed was golden. I think he will end up sitting a very nice trip tracking the pace setters, and I’m hoping that the speed horses battle just enough for him to pick them off down the stretch. I don’t know if I’ll get 12-1, but I’d be content with getting 7 or 8-1. He’s my pick to pull off the upset. 3. Hence (Geroux, 20-1): He probably didn’t like the wet track, and being so far back didn’t help. I still wish I would have seen a little more out of him. It is encouraging that Asmussen is sending him right back, though, especially since he already had Lookin at Lee in the race. I don’t love him, but I’ll use him in the back end of exotics. 4. Always Dreaming (Velasquez, 4-5): He’s clearly the most likely winner, and he should have a good trip being forwardly placed. But I don’t think he’ll have a great trip, as Conquest Mo Money will put in more of a fight than State of Honor did on the front end of the Derby, and Classic Empire will be more forward than he was in the Derby, so he’ll have to work more than he did in the Derby. On top of that, I know some people don’t think it’s a big deal, but I’m absolutely concerned about a Pletcher horse running back in two weeks. It’s something he very rarely does, and he hasn’t had a ton of success when he has done it. I’m using him, but doing so defensively. And at 3-5 or 4-5, which he’ll likely go off at, he’s terrible value. 5. Classic Empire (Leparoux, 3-1): He’s the key to the race for me. I’m hoping he shows more speed like he did in the Juvenile last year to challenge Always Dreaming earlier in the race to soften him up, and I’ve heard comments that that may be the plan for him, to put him on or near the lead. I’m not sure how much it affects his win chances for the race, but it would certainly hurt the other two front runners. He had a well-established tough trip in the Derby, but since everyone saw it, it won’t help his value. And while the Derby was his best effort of 2017, he still hasn’t gotten back to his Juvenile form from last year. I prefer him slightly over Always Dreaming, but I don’t think he’ll be much value either. Still a must use in multi-race wagers and in exotics. 6. Gunnevera (Smith, 15-1): In a race filled with closers, I still believe he is the best of the group. I don’t think he loved the wet track, and he was also running wide turning into the home stretch in the Derby. He’s become a bit of the forgotten horse. I don’t know if he’ll get the pace to allow him to win the race, but if Classic Empire can push things a bit, it’s not impossible. He’s a fringe win contender for me, but a must use in exotics. 7. Term of Art (J. Ortiz, 30-1): Has run in five different Derby point races, and never finished within six lengths of the winner in any of them. Not using. 8. Senior Investment (Hill, 30-1): Won the Lexington last time out, but only because he had far and away the best trip in the race. Could make a strong argument he was 3rd or 4th best. On top of that, he’s the slowest horse in the field on speed figures. Not using. 9. Lookin at Lee (Lanarie, 10-1): Lanarie couldn’t have given him a more perfect trip in the Derby, as he rode the rail every step of the way. It’s hard to imagine him getting that kind of trip again. I think last time was the time to have him. He’ll take a fair amount of money given his Derby runner up, likely being 3rd or 4th choice. I’m willing to take a stand against him completely, even in exotics. Not using. 10. Conquest Mo Money (Carreno, 15-1): He should be the pace setter, and he’s a game horse- in my opinion he ran the best race in the Arkansas Derby, and that race came back to produce two of the four horses in the Derby superfecta. He’ll be in the mix turning for home- the question is can he hold on. I think he’ll find at least one horse that will be better on the day, so he’ll have to beat me on top, but I absolutely will use him underneath. And even though he isn’t in my official top four, there are really five horses that I would consider significant factors, and he’s the fifth. Preakness selections: 1. Cloud Computing (2) 12-1 2. Classic Empire (5) 3-1 3. Gunnevera (6) 15-1 4. Always Dreaming (4) 4-5
Knew I wasn't going to be able to bet most of the undercard, so I'm just looking at this on the fly. I like Time to Travel (9) in the Sir Barton- may mix him in an exacta with Hedge Fund (2) and True Timber (7). In the Dixie, I like World Approval (2). Just going a straight win bet on him as long as I get 5-2 or better.
It's odd to say this for a favorite, but Always Dreaming is a little bit dead on the board. Thought he would be in the 3-5 or 4-5 range, but he's at 3-2, and Classic Empire isn't too far behind him at 2-1.
I'm a little surprised Cloud Computing isn't taking a little more money, as he's the horse I had seen most people pick outside of the top two. Thought he would be in the 9 or 10-1 range, but I'll gladly take 13-1. Hoping it's not too much, too soon for him, and would like to see him break well this time.
For the uninitiated, there was a 2yo horse that was retired before his 3yo season that would have absolutely been mopping the floor with these shit horses, his name was Not This Time and this trip is about the most impressive thing you'll ever see out of a young horse (watch the #8 horse):
And for anybody somewhat intrigued by watching the preakness and maybe on the fence with horse racing... I urge you to watch my favorite race of all-time:
That was the exact trip I was hoping Cloud Computing would get. Truthfully, Classic Empire was probably best, but I'll take it. Only disappointment was Senior Investment getting 3rd killed all of my exotics.
No surprise, but Always Dreaming has officially been ruled out for the Belmont. Cloud Computing is unlikely to run as well. But a big field is still expected. A field of 14 is probable, and two others (Irish War Cry and Hollywood Handsome) are possible. Classic Empire and Lookin at Lee look to be the only two horses to run in all three races. Current Belmont probables: Classic Empire (Derby 4th, Preakness 2nd) Conquest Mo Money (Preakness 7th) Epicharis (UAE Derby 2nd) Gormley (Derby 9th) Irap (Derby 18th) J Boys Echo (Derby 15th) Lookin at Lee (Derby 2nd, Preakness 4th) Meantime (Peter Pan 2nd) Multiplier (Preakness 6th) Patch (Derby 14th) Senior Investment (Preakness 3rd) Tapwrit (Derby 6th) True Timber (Sir Barton 3rd) Twisted Tom (Tesio 1st)
Meant to post this the other day- Rubilinda (a Chad Brown filly) became the first horse sired by Frankel to win in the US when she won her debut last weekend. She's going to be very good.
Classic Empire is a late defection for the Belmont due to a hoof abscess. He should be back at some point later this year, though. From a pure gambling perspective, I hate this, because I was going to be completely against him.
Belmont Stakes field: 1. Twisted Tom (20-1), Castellano 2. Tapwrit (6-1), J. Ortiz 3. Gormley (8-1), Espinoza 4. J Boys Echo (15-1), Albarado 5. Hollywood Handsome (30-1), Geroux 6. Lookin at Lee (5-1), I. Ortiz 7. Irish War Cry (7-2), Maragh 8. Senior Investment (12-1), Hill 9. Meantime (15-1), Smith 10. Multiplier (15-1), Rosario 11. Epicharis (4-1), Lemaire 12. Patch (12-1), Velasquez
Any plays for the Belmont out there? Who do you like? Need to finally hit on race. TIA. @mtsucalico85
I don't have a great feel for this race. I was going to be all in on Epicharis (11), and of the favorites, I still like him the most. I really liked what I saw from his Japanese races (though who knows what the quality was), and I thought he was best in the UAE Derby when he was nosed out by a good horse in Thunder Snow (the Kentucky Derby fluke aside, Thunder Snow just finished a good 2nd to Europe's best 3YO on the turf last time out). He's bred for the distance, and he'll be forwardly placed, which is where I want my horse to be. But within the past day or two, he was treated for lameness in his right front leg, and was forced to miss a day of training. He's not even a definite to run anymore. I respect him enough that I still picked him second, but I don't feel good about it. The problem is, if not Epicharis, then who? It is hard to trust Irish War Cry (7), who should be favored, as his two big wins he had everything his own way, and he faded badly in his two losses when forced to work. It is a positive to me that this race will be on 5 weeks rest as opposed to 4. He's a horse you have to use in multis, but I will try to beat him. I'm not a huge fan of the closers in this race, at least in the top spot. I'd be willing to use a couple of them underneath, namely Senior Investment (8), Tapwrit (2), and Multiplier (10)- I could see the latter two being more midpack this race- but don't see any of them winning. Probably like Multiplier the most of the three, but will use them all similarly. Going to try and beat Lookin at Lee (6) completely. Gormley (3) is somewhat interesting, as I thought he ran an underrated race in the Derby. I don't love the distance for him, but I like the running style. Meantime (9) is somewhat similar to Gormley, and may have more upside, but it worries me that his two best races were on wet tracks, and nothing about his pedigree screams distance. I prefer Gormley of the two. I ultimately landed on Twisted Tom (1). I get that, on paper, he is the slowest horse in the race. But outside of maybe Epicharis, he's the horse that I think is most likely to relish the mile and a half, and that can be the great equalizer- just look at horses like Ruler on Ice winning the Belmont or Commissioner finishing 2nd. He'll be forwardly placed, sitting just behind the leaders, which is the kind of trip I'm looking for. And while he may be slow on paper, there are also signs that show he may be better than he appears. His last two races, he has won while a horse named O Dionysus has finished second. Two starts back, it was by a nose, and last race, it was by 2 1/2 lengths. Further back, O Dionysus had faced Irish War Cry in a stakes race on New Year's Eve, and Irish War Cry defeated O Dionysus by a nose. And while Irish War Cry will go off favored, this horse will likely be every bit of the 20-1 morning line that he is. In a race where I have questions about anyone else, I decided to take a shot with him. Belmont Stakes selections: 1. Twisted Tom (1) 20-1 2. Epicharis (11) 4-1 3. Gormley (3) 8-1 4. Irish War Cry (7) 7-2 I'll do a WPS bet on Twisted Tom, plus mix him in a trifecta with Epicharis, Gormley, Irish War Cry, Multiplier, Tapwrit, and Senior Investment. Haven't completely ruled out using Meantime, though I prefer the other horses over him. Also will probably limit the top spot of the tri to Twisted Tom, Epicharis, Gormley, and Irish War Cry.
Your insight is greatly appreciate. Thanks my man. Anything else pops up in the meantime, would love to hear about it. I know Rasheed Wallace appreciate you, too.
I really like Tapwrit in this spot. I'm going to be following the Epichuris lameness thing in greater detail in the next 2 days... Tapwrit, Epichurus and Irish War Cry are my 3 favorite with the edge to Tapwrit. This could change after I pour over the thorographs. If anybody wants the thorographs let let me know
I'm going to Monmouth tomorrow. Don't plan on spending a dime. Just going to enjoy a cigar or two and maybe some scotch.
I haven't looked too much at the undercard since I wasn't going to bet it. The stakes races at least look fairly chalky to me. I'm leaning towards Timeline over Irish War Cry in the Haskell. I prefer a forwardly placed horse, and I think Timeline has more room for growth than anyone else in the field (and he already fits in well in terms of speed figures).
I'll dope it tomorrow morning and post some thoughts. Focused on Saratoga today. Jim Dandy should be fun
Fun race to watch, but not a good betting race unless you are really against one of the top two and can maybe set up an exacta. Will be interesting to see how Good Samaritan takes to the dirt. I like Cloud Computing to win, but I'm not excited to bet him at even money. Maybe Pavel goes fast enough early to weaken Always Dreaming, and Giuseppe the Great can steal second?
If cloud computing or always dreaming won I would have hit that pick 4.... probably woulda paid around 600. So gay
Very interested to watch the Pacific Classic today to see what we get out of Arrogate. If he gets back to his old form, obviously he wins for fun. But at the same time, I don't know how much I can trust him given his last race, to go along with the talk of his poor workouts, especially the one leading up to this race. My belief is that he either wins by open lengths or he finishes off the board. In multi race wagers, he's a must use. And I'll use him on top in a couple exotics as a saver, but otherwise I will mostly try to beat him. If you want to beat Arrogate, then Accelerate and Collected are the two main challengers. I much prefer Accelerate of the two, as he seems to relish racing at Del Mar. His connections aren't sure how he'll handle the distance, and it is a minor concern, but his pedigree is fairly solid for getting the distance. Collected, on the other hand, I have major doubts about him going longer in distance- think he'll be at his best going around a mile to 1 1/16 miles. I also think he looks much better on paper than I think he actually is, as he has had great setup after great setup. He did beat Accelerate last time out, but Collected had a more favorable trip. One giant price I'm interested in using in exotics is Royal Albert Hall. To be honest, a large part of that is that I'm just not impressed with the rest of the field. I think Hard Aces has lost a step. I don't think much of Sorry Erik or (to a lesser extent) Curlin Road, as they've had a lot of chances on dirt and have failed to do better than a 90 Beyer. I'll use Donworth in exotics, but he's been a horse who has been more sizzle than steak so far in his career. And I've already detailed why I am skeptical of Collected (I will use him in exotics defensively, but not with Arrogate). With Royal Albert Hall, he has run 27 times, but this will be his first attempt on dirt. His pedigree is all turf, but he ran well on synthetic over in Europe before coming over to the US, and he has actually had some strong workouts on the Del Mar dirt surface leading up to the race, including a bullet workout last time out. He likely isn't good enough to win, but I could see a scenario where his jockey recognizes that, and rides him just to try and get a piece. If he was 10-1 or even 25-1, I probably wouldn't be too interested in him. But he's going to be every bit of 50-1, if not longer. I'll end up doing a show bet on him, for starters, and hope he gets in there and Arrogate finishes out of the money. Plus I'll feature him in 2nd and 3rd in exotics, mostly keying him with Accelerate and mixing them in with Arrogate (only on top), Donworth, and Collected. Haven't completely ruled out throwing Hard Aces or Curlin Road underneath in exotics along with Accelerate/Royal Albert Hall, but my guess is I'll let those two beat me.