Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Anyone betting Churchill today?
     
  2. Gallant Knight

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    No but v excited to see monomy girl
     
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  3. Gallant Knight

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    She’s back. One of my favorites
     
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  4. Bankz

    Bankz I'm a sick guy
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    Very impressive. Easy victory
     
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  5. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    I have been betting Churchill and Santa Anita
     
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  6. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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  7. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Pretty interesting stakes card at Churchill today - only one graded stakes race in the Matt Winn, but the other four stakes races are graded stake caliber fields. I don't have enough strong opinions to take a shot at the multi race wagers, but there are some interesting price horses in a few of these races.

    Race 7 (Shawnee): I likely won't be playing this race - Dunbar Road (4) is my pick, but I don't really have any interest in betting her at 4-5. And given the layoff she is coming off of, I wouldn't feel extremely comfortable singling her in multi race wagers - I just struggle to find anyone else I feel good about in the field.

    Race 8 (Tepin): This is where the stakes races become more intriguing to me. Sharing (9) makes her 2020 debut and is the big name in the field off of her Breeders Cup win last time out, but I don't see her as a standout in the field either. I picked her second. Outburst (7) and Alms (14) are logical, but I would rather have Sharing than either of those, and I'd rather take a shot with more of a price. The two price horses that I'm interested in are Walk In Marrakesh (3) and Hendy Woods (5). Walk In Marrakesh narrowly lost to Abscond (2) and Outburst, respectively, two and three starts back, while last time out, she didn't get the greatest trip. I think she's dangerous at what should be an attractive price. Hendy Woods, meanwhile, has shown a lot of promise in her first two starts, winning both of them without having the smoothest of trips. It is a step up in class for her, but I think she fits. I'll go with Walk In Marrakesh on top.

    1. Walk In Marrakesh (3) 10-1
    2. Sharing (9) 3-1
    3. Hendy Woods (5) 12-1

    Race 9 (Blame): Pretty good collection of older horses in this field, especially with the 4 year olds. It says something that a horse that has won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (Discreet Lover (12)) is 30-1 on the morning line. But I don't think it will be a surprise to anyone that I will go with Global Campaign (3). He looked good in his 4YO debut, and I don't see any reason he can't improve off of that effort. With that said, I also have a little interest in Silver Dust (7). While Fair Grounds has been where Silver Dust has his big wins, I thought he's ran well in his Churchill races as well - he was just in a bit too deep in the Alysheba last year against horses like McKinzie and Tom's d'Etat. I also like the cut back to a mile for him. I've never been the biggest Mr. Money (13) fan, and the post doesn't help, but he's another horse I like more at a mile than going longer, and he won two Grade 3 races pretty easily at Churchill last year. Owendale (8) is logical as well, though I can't say I love him as the favorite, and he is a horse I think would like a little more distance than the mile.

    1. Global Campaign (3) 9-2
    2. Silver Dust (7) 8-1
    3. Mr. Money (13) 5-1

    Race 10 (Matt Winn): The big story is Maxfield (10) making his 3YO debut in this race. Off of his 2YO form, he certainly belongs in the conversation of the top horses in the crop. That said, he has questions to answer - as visually impressive as his Breeders Futurity win was, from a speed figure perspective, it doesn't make him a clear standout. He does need to take a step forward if he wants to be a top Derby contender going forward. And with the Derby the long term goal, I could see this being more of a building block race for him than anything. He could win regardless, and I still like him the most long term in this field, but I think you can take a small shot against him here, and I will be doing that with Mystic Guide (1). Mystic Guide is taking a big step up in class after breaking his maiden last time out, but he looked very good in doing so, and he has a fantastic pedigree being a son out of the 5-time Grade 1 winning Music Note. He's been working pretty strongly leading up to this race as well. I don't expect to get his 15-1 morning line, but even half of those odds would be playable for me. Those will be my main two - I still have a little hope left for Necker Island (7), but he has disappointed me this year. Still, think he could be worth using underneath along with horses like Pneumatic (2), Ny Traffic (6) and Major Fed (12).

    1. Mystic Guide (1) 15-1
    2. Maxfield (10) 5-2
    3. Necker Island (7) 15-1

    Race 11 (War Chant): Won't spend much time on this one, as I don't have a strong opinion at all here. I'd narrowly lean towards Smooth Like Strait (9) as my top pick, and would be a little intrigued with South Bend (1) and Island Commish (3) at larger prices.
     
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  8. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    In the Matt win I am probably going to play 10, 1, 2, and 6 in my plays.
     
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  9. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
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  10. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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  11. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
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    That sucks. Loved the few races he had run so far.
     
  12. Joe Withabee

    Joe Withabee PS I have sifulus
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    GF’s granddad has a quarter horse in the Ruidoso Derby today, Apollitical Papa
     
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  13. Gallant Knight

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    Good luck!!
     
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  14. Joe Withabee

    Joe Withabee PS I have sifulus
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    :feelsbadman: Drew the 1 hole, took forever for the rest of the horses to load. Got pinned in the bad dirt the whole way by the 2 horse.
     
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  15. Gallant Knight

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    A week from today. Guessing she will be something like 3-1

    F3F546BB-FC07-4EF8-9375-37B7F8E30B28.jpeg

    The OBS two year old in training sale starts on Tuesday. I really like hip 548 the California Chrome filly. You can watch her breeze here

    https://www.obssales.com/aprpreview/2020/
     
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  16. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Loved what I saw out of Honor A.P. yesterday. With Charlatan now hurt and will be out of training for at least 45 days, I have to think Honor A.P., Tiz the Law, and Maxfield are your pretty clear cut Derby favorites at this point, and I think I'd rank them in that order.

    Rough couple weeks for Baffert, that's for sure.
     
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  17. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    So we are less than 2 weeks out from the Belmont Stakes. Still time for some changes to what the field looks like, but this appears to be the group pointing towards the Belmont:

    Basin (2nd, Arkansas Derby Div 1)
    Dr Post (1st, Unbridled Stakes)
    Farmington Road (4th, Arkansas Derby Div 1)
    Gouverneur Morris (3rd, Arkansas Derby Div 1)
    Max Player (1st, Withers)
    Modernist (3rd, Louisiana Derby)
    Sole Volante (2nd, Tampa Bay Derby) - he is running in a Wed allowance at Gulfstream against Ete Indien and Shivaree, but a quick turnaround to the Belmont is on the table
    Tap It To Win (1st, Belmont Allowance)
    Tiz the Law (1st, Florida Derby)

    I would expect Tiz the Law to be a pretty strong favorite if that is how the field breaks down. That said, if this is the field, I would be at least a little bit intrigued with Tap It To Win. Tap It To Win disappointed last fall after a nice maiden win, but has bounced back to win both of his starts as a 3YO, and his win in an allowance last week I thought was very impressive, handily beating a horse in Mystic Guide that I think is pretty talented in his own right (go to 3 hours, 52 minutes in the video to watch his race). On top of that, I don't necessarily see a ton of early speed in the field that would challenge him. If he can get loose on the lead, I think he's the biggest danger to Tiz the Law, even if this is a jump in class for him.

     
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  18. Gallant Knight

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    Tap it to win might be a freak
     
  19. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    What is Maxfields plan?
     
  20. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    blue grass next

    that would leave 8 weeks until the derby, so probably one more start in between depending on when they schedule the travers.
     
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  21. Gallant Knight

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    Very excited about the new addition from the Ocala two year old sale. Dialed in colt
     
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  22. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    Looking at Sole Volante. How unusual is the 10 day turnaround he's about to attempt?
     
  23. Gallant Knight

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    For lower level horses not very unusual

    for grade 1s doesn’t happen often
     
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  24. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Back in 2012, there was a horse named Willy Beamin who won the 1 1/8 mile Albany Stakes at Saratoga against NY breds on August 22nd, and came back to win the Grade 1 King's Bishop on August 25th.
     
  25. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    I feel like I remember a horse running two races real close together at royal ascot last year and winning which surprised me
     
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  26. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    Blue Point won two g1’s at Ascot last year in 5 days.
     
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  27. Gallant Knight

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    And then immediately retired
     
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  28. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Bet 50 tris all day. Super profitable.

    will lose it all tomorrow.
     
  29. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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  30. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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  31. Gallant Knight

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    Will unload on tap it to win at 6-1
     
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  32. Gallant Knight

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    Guess who bred a mare to upstart in April :)
     
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  33. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Upstart is a horse I wish we would have seen run in more one-turn races than he did. He's a solid enough two-turn horse, but I always thought he'd be best as a miler, and outside of the Met Mile that Frosted won, he exclusively ran in two-turn races at 3YO and 4YO. His two wins after turning 3 were in two of the three 1 1/16 mile races he ran in, which I don't think is a coincidence.
     
  34. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Some Belmont Stakes day thoughts - I won't be able to play the early part of the card, so I'll stick to races 6-10. The pick 5 from those races will be my main play.

    Race 6: Wonder Again Stakes: I like Sweet Melania here off of the layoff. Don't see much speed to challenge her outside of maybe Antoinette? I will be singling her.
    1. Sweet Melania (2) 7-5
    2. Selflessly (5) 5-2
    3. Antoinette (4) 6-1

    Race 7: 6F Turf Allowance: Given that I'll be able to single two of my legs and go 2 deep in a third, this race will be used as a spread race for me. I'll go with Light in the Sky at a bit of a price as my tepid op pick. She broke her maiden on turf last year beating My Sassy Sarah (who should be favored here), but has had some struggles since then to dirty up her form. Hoping the layoff gave her some time to get right. But I plan on going six deep here - in addition to the three below, I will also be using Single Verse (3), Strongerthanuknow (4), and Canarsie Angel (11).
    1. Light in the Sky (10) 8-1
    2. My Sassy Sarah (8) 5-2
    3. Noble Jewel (6) 8-1

    Race 8: Acorn Stakes: My other single in the sequence will be Gamine. Similar to Sweet Melania, I don't see a ton of early speed to challenge her. Casual and Lucrezia should be sitting off her forwardly placed, but they don't have the same speed Gamine has. Casual is a pretty clear second choice for me.
    1. Gamine (1) 1-1
    2. Casual (5) 3-1
    3. Lucrezia (2) 9-2

    Race 9: Jaipur Stakes: The other spread race for me, but I do plan on taking shots against Pure Sensation and Texas Wedge - both of whom I prefer going shorter. Stubbins is your most likely winner, but I'll take a shot with the feast-or-famine Hidden Scroll. He has only attempted one race on turf (in which he stumbled and lost his rider), but there is enough in his pedigree to suggest he'll take to the turf, and he has a bullet workout on the turf to add more credence to that. I don't think you'll get the morning line on him, but even at something like 5-1, I can take a chance on him. In addition to those two, I will also use Oleksandra, and the other horse I'm at least mildly intrigued with is Kanthaka (1). He's coming off of a long layoff, but the fact that Graham Motion is putting him in this race off of that layoff shows confidence to me, and he's gotten big efforts out of horses on long layoffs before (see Animal Kingdom's second in the Breeders Cup Mile as an example).
    1. Hidden Scroll (6) 8-1
    2. Stubbins (5) 3-1
    3. Oleksandra (2) 7-2

    Race 10: Belmont Stakes: Tiz the Law should be a pretty clear favorite in the race. However, I don't think he should be below even odds, which is what I expect him to end up at. As good as he looked in his two races this year, it isn't like he has beaten any world beaters when the top horses he's faced are Ete Indien, Shivaree, Gouvernour Morris, and Independence Hall (at least at two turns for him). Sole Volante has defeated three of those four horses as well, though admittedly by smaller margins. Tiz the Law a must use, but I'll take a shot against him on the win end with Tap It to Win. Tap It to Win has the highest last out Beyer with a 97 (Tiz the Law ran a 96 in the Florida Derby), as he handily won a pretty strong allowance race. I also like the pace scenario for him, as outside of maybe Fore Left, there isn't a whole lot to challenge him early on. Does he have questions? Yeah - the increase in distance is a question, and it is a step up in class (which did not go well for him in 2019, but I think he's a different horse now), but I think the upside he has is enough to put him over the top for me. So those will be my top two, with Sole Volante and Pneumatic as horses to use in exotics. I'm against Dr. Post, as I think he's more of a miler. Farmington Road is a horse I would have liked had the Belmont still been 1 1/2 miles, but with the shorter race, he's up against it more. Maybe he or a horse like Modernist could sneak into 3rd or 4th if everything goes right - I'd rather use them at bigger prices than a horse like Dr. Post.
    1. Tap It to Win (1) 6-1
    2. Tiz the Law (8) 6-5
    3. Sole Volante (2) 9-2
    4. Pneumatic (10) 8-1

    My Pick 5 Play:
    Race 6: 2
    Race 7: 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11
    Race 8: 1
    Race 9: 1, 2, 5, 6
    Race 10: 1, 8

    A $1 ticket would cost $48
     
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  35. Gallant Knight

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    I love tap it to win. One turn sets up perfect for him
     
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  36. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Definitely feel better about a one turn 1 1/8 mile race for him than a two turn race at that distance.
     
  37. Gallant Knight

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    should have the favorites in two texas bred stakes races on july 5th. wish i hadnt agreed to play in a golf tournament that weekend
     
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  38. Gallant Knight

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    Is there any reason I shouldn’t unload on no parole in the Woody Stephens
     
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  39. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    For the Belmont I am thinking a tri with modernist and tiz the law on top with the field in show.

    Hoping tap it to win gets money today and makes tiz odds better return potentially.
     
  40. Kinghorn817

    Kinghorn817 Well-Known Member
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    Is this a play for you? Might tail
     
  41. Gallant Knight

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    Yeah I’m going 7500 to win on him
     
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  42. matadorjim

    matadorjim Well-Known Member
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    Good odds on #1 if he hits.
     
  43. Kinghorn817

    Kinghorn817 Well-Known Member
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  44. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
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    Congrats GK. Much smaller prize for me on the tail.
     
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  45. matadorjim

    matadorjim Well-Known Member
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    not even close
     
  46. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    nice hit!
     
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  47. Kinghorn817

    Kinghorn817 Well-Known Member
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    That’s a little walking around money.
     
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